I went 7-8-1 against the spread last week.

I had a good overall record after the early games, but some late comebacks in the late games threw me back down to around .500 for the week.

There were some surprises in Week 1 that affected my team rankings this preseason. I don’t think the Colts are as good as I expected, and the Commanders had some moments last week that surprised me, in a good way.

Will Packers QB Aaron Rodgers figure out life without former wide receiver Davante Adams?

Can Bengals QB Joe Burrow bounce-back from last week’s poor outing?

We pick every NFL game against the spread and throw out a few upsets in Week 2 of the 2022 NFL season.

Los Angeles Chargers at Kansas City Chiefs (-4) – My pick is Los Angeles Chargers

The Chargers (1-0 ATS) won their home opener over the Raiders 24-19. They had a hard time covering Raiders WR Davante Adams, but their offense picked up the slack to keep up. Chargers QB Justin Herbert completed 26 of 34 passes for 279 yards and three touchdowns. They had some trouble running the ball, but that could just be early season struggles. The Chiefs (1-0 ATS) beat the Cardinals 44-21 in Arizona. Kansas City really manhandled Arizona for the first three quarters and took their foot off the gas in the fourth. Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes threw for 360 yards and five touchdowns in the win. The Chargers will need to play better in their secondary if they hope to keep this game close. This has all the characteristics of a probable shoot-out, but since it is a Thursday game, offenses will be a bit sluggish. Last year, the Chargers beat the Chiefs in their early face-off  and forced an overtime in their second meeting. These teams know each other really well. I think the Chargers will keep it close, so I’m taking the points.

Miami Dolphins at Baltimore Ravens (-3.5) – My pick is Miami Dolphins

The Dolphins (1-0 ATS) won their home opener 20-7 over the Patriots. A lot of people bash Dolphins QB Tua Tagovailoa over his perceived lack of throwing accuracy. I haven’t seen him struggle getting the ball to receivers much, but a clip of poor pass to WR Tyreek Hill did make the rounds. People are dislike Tua will just cherry-pick lowlights to show to prove their point. If you watched the entire game, he was fine. Miami added WR Tyreek Hill this offseason, and even if Tua is a little off with accuracy, having a speedy receiver that can adjust to the ball, is huge for the Dolphins. I love the Jaylen Waddle/Hill receiving duo this year. The Ravens (1-0 ATS) went on the road and beat the Jets 24-9. It’s hard to really glean a lot from the Ravens defense’s performance as the Jets had to start QB Joe Flacco. The Jets ran a basic offense and still had some success, which is a bit alarming. I will say that the Ravens do need a better running game if they hope to hang with above average teams. The Ravens and Dolphins are much closer in talent than people realize. This should be another close one and I’ll take the points.

New York Jets at Cleveland Browns (-6) – My pick is New York Jets

The Jets (0-1 ATS) lost their home opener to the Ravens 24-9. There were bright spots in that loss. They may have found their true RB1 in Michael Carter. He has great hands and already has a year under his belt. The Jets probably hope to have shared running back offensive roles, but Carter should be the running back on passing downs for sure. Also, Jets backup QB Joe Flacco didn’t do a bad job in relief of injured QB Zach Wilson. He was 37 for 59 and eclipsed the 300-yard mark. He may have lost his ‘fastball’, but he played smart and knows he has other pitches. The Browns (1-0 ATS) were able to defeat their former quarterback and squeaked out a 26-24 win on the road. Cleveland survived Game 1 without new QB Deshaun Watson, but I don’t know if QB Jacoby Brissett can lead a comeback if they were to fall behind by more than a touchdown. That was an issue when he started for the Indianapolis Colts a few years ago. The Browns offense will run through their running game right now and if they are forced to throw, any team can hang with them. I’m not sold on Brissett being able to cover spreads near a touchdown. I’m taking the points in this game.

Washington Commanders at Detroit Lions (-2) – My pick is Washington Commanders

The Commanders (1-0) won their home opener 28-22 over the Jaguars. Commanders new QB Carson Wentz played great in the first-half, but he had a couple boners early in the second-half that allowed the Jaguars back into the game. He did put the team back on his shoulders and threw two touchdowns in the final ten minutes. He needs to just take care of the ball better and Washington’s games won’t be so darn dramatic. The Lions (1-0 ATS) lost their home opener 38-35 against the Eagles. This game looked to be out-of-control in the second-half, but the Lions were able to score 14 unanswered points in the fourth quarter to pull within a field goal. Lions RB D’Andre Swift had his best game of his young career and RB Jamaal Williams is a nice complement to him out of the backfield. They have some guys on offense they can build around, but their defense will lose them games. This is the first time the Lions have been favored in a game in over a year-and-a-half. I like Washington in this one and think the Commanders could win outright.

Indianapolis Colts at Jacksonville Jaguars (+4) – My pick is Indianapolis Colts

The Colts (0-1 ATS), who were favored a touchdown, ended up tying the Texans 20-20. Colts K Rodrigo Blankenship missed a 42-yard field goal in overtime and it cost him his job. There were plenty of people to blame, but his lack of leg power has become an issue. Colts QB Matt Ryan racked up passing yards, but he did fumble the ball four times. They lost only one of those, but the offense had at least one shaky play on offense in nearly every drive. The Jaguars (0-1 ATS) lost to Washington 28-22 on Sunday. The Jaguars had an eight-point lead in the fourth quarter, but they gave up two unanswered passing touchdowns and lost. The Jaguars receiving corps has vastly improved from QB Trevor Lawrence’s rookie year. He also wasn’t on his back as much, which was a surprise as Washington’s pass rush is among the top-ten in the league. The Colts have some business to take care of against the Jaguars on Sunday. Indy could have made the playoffs last year had they beaten the Jaguars in Week 18, but they were upset. The Colts have revenge on their minds and I expect a much better game from QB Matt Ryan this week, so I’ll take Indy to cover.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New Orleans Saints (+3) – My pick is New Orleans Saints

The Bucs (1-0 ATS) won their opener over the Cowboys 19-3. It was a rather easy game as they controlled the clock and knocked Cowboys QB Dak Prescott out of the game with a hand injury. The Bucs didn’t come out unscathed as they lost WR Chris Godwin (hamstring) for a few games. I was curious to see how Bucs QB Tom Brady would perform after some absences this preseason. He didn’t appear affected at all, but leaned on the running game to finish out the game. The Saints (0-1 ATS) won their road opener over the Falcons 27-26. I was impressed with QB Jameis Winston, who I had written off after some poor games last year. The Saints started off slow, but they finished with 17 unanswered points to get the win. I think the receiving duo of Michael Thomas and Jarvis Landry could push the Saints to some wins this year. The Saints played the Bucs really well last year as they won outright in both contests. They may not get the outright win, but this should be a close one, so I’m taking the points.

Carolina Panthers at New York Giants (-2.5) – My pick is New York Giants

The Panthers (0-1 ATS) nearly successfully completed a comeback over the Browns, but fell 26-24. Panthers new QB Baker Mayfield was sloppy early, but he was able to play well in the fourth quarter. Carolina will need to decide if they want to actually play RB Christian McCaffrey or lose games. He played 81% of snaps, but only had 14 touches in the loss. The Giants (1-0 ATS) surprised everyone with a 21-20 outright win on the road against the Titans. They didn’t play great in the first-half, but RB Saquon Barkley was able to bust out with his best game since injuring his knee in 2020. He ran for 164 yards and caught six balls for an addition 30. I would be surprised if Barkley had back-to-back games like this, but as long as he can be a 100-yard back and drain some clock, I think the Giants will be a near-.500 team. I was surprised to see that the Giants were favored in this game, but it makes sense. I expect the Panthers to keep using McCaffrey with kid’s gloves and Mayfield to throw a couple picks. I’m taking the Giants to cover at home.

New England Patriots at Pittsburgh Steelers (+1.5) – My pick is Pittsburgh Steelers

The Patriots (0-1 ATS) fell to the Dolphins 20-7 in their opener. New England may have lost more than the game as QB Mac Jones is dealing with a back injury. It has been reported that he is feeling better, but as a person with back issues, you can just wake up and feel either 100% worse or completely fine. Anyone with a back injury is, at minimum, day-to-day in my eyes. New England’s backup quarterback room is Brian Hoyer and rookie Bailey Zappe. One piece of positive information that you can take away from the loss is that the Dolphins couldn’t run on the Patriots. The Dolphins running game might be a bit below-average this year, but I applaud the Patriots run-stopping performance on Sunday. The Steelers (1-0 ATS) came out with the 23-20 overtime win overt the Bengals. The Steelers defense helped get the team out to an early lead, but they made a few mistakes in the second-half. The Bengals had a couple chances to get the win in overtime, but failed to connect. The Steelers will come into this game short-handed as LB T.J. Watt may miss a couple months with a pectoral injury, but it appears that RB Najee Harris (foot) should be healthy enough to play in Week 2. These teams have similar talent level and think the home-field advantage will come into play, so I’m taking the points.

Atlanta Falcons at Los Angeles Rams (-10.5) – My pick is Atlanta Falcons

The Falcons (1-0) didn’t come out with the win in their home opener, falling to the Saints 27-26. I liked what I saw from Falcons new QB Marcus Mariota. He will be able to keep plays alive with his legs and having RB Cordarrelle Patterson there is a huge plus. If rookie WR Drake London can stay healthy, the young wideout could break some rookie team records. The Rams (0-1 ATS) fell to the Bills 31-10 in the season kickoff game on Thursday Night Football. The game was tied 10-10 at the half, but the Bills half-time adjustments were key. Buffalo finished the game scoring 21 unanswered points. The Rams defense looked tired in the second-half and losing LB Von Miller in free agency could end up being a huge mistake. The Rams will most likely win this game outright, but I think the Falcons can keep this one tight, so I’m taking the points.

Seattle Seahawks at San Francisco 49ers (-8.5) – My pick is San Francisco 49ers

The Seahawks (1-0 ATS) were able to get the 17-16 outright win on Monday Night Football over the Denver Broncos. Seattle was helped by new Broncos head coach Nathaniel Hackett’s bonehead decision to attempt a 64-yard field goal instead of attempting a fourth-and-five to get better field position. Seahawks new QB Geno Smith connected on 23 of 28 passes for 195 yards and two touchdowns. If he can repeat those kind of numbers every game, the Seahawks will be in every game this season…but I don’t see that happening. The 49ers (0-1 ATS) fell to the Bears 19-10 in a rain-soaked game. It was an ugly contest that saw them lose RB Elijah Mitchell for roughly two months with a sprained MCL. San Francisco will need to lean on RB Jeff Wilson Jr., RB/WR Deebo Samuel and newly-signed RB Marlon Mack could get some action as well. I expect a better game from Niners QB Trey Lance since he’s not dealing with torrential rain. The Seahawks will have a letdown game and fall to the Niners big, I’m taking the Niners to cover in this one.

Cincinnati Bengals at Dallas Cowboys (+7.5) – My pick is Cincinnati Bengals

The Bengals (0-1 ATS) fell to the Steelers 23-20 in overtime. You could point the blame for the loss at Bengals QB Joe Burrow and no one would disagree. He threw four interceptions and lost a fumble in the contest. He will need to play smarter this week as the Cowboys secondary is full of ballhawks who take risks. I could see Cincinnati leaning on RB Joe Mixon more in this contest. Just get him established and maybe slow the game down a bit for Burrow. The Cowboys (0-1 ATS) lost 19-3 to the Buccaneers in their home opener. Cowboys QB Dak Prescott will be out for a couple months dealing with a hand injury, so longtime backup QB Cooper Rush will be the starter for the foreseeable future. He’s been pretty good in relief in the past, but I expect the Cowboys offensive gameplan to be backfield-heavy. They need to get the ball to RB Tony Pollard in different ways to complement RB Ezekiel Elliott, and think that could help open up some passing lanes as well. I think the Bengals will rebound after last week’s bad outcome and they will cover on the road.

Houston Texans at Denver Broncos (-9.5) – My pick is Denver Broncos

The Texans (1-0) were able to force a 20-20 tie in last week’s home opener against the Colts. Houston looked like they were on their way to an outright win, but they gave up 17 unanswered points in the fourth quarter. They will need more help from their backfield if they hope to compete in games this season. Teams will be able to figure out QB Davis Mills if he just spams the ball to WR Brandin Cooks, and then looks for TE O.J. Howard when he’s in the red zone. They need to average more than 3.0 yards per carry to help Mills out. The Broncos (0-1 ATS) just played flat in their 17-16 loss to the Seahawks on Monday night. Denver head coach Nathaniel Hackett made a decision to rest his starters this preseason and they looked rusty in Week 1. He’s a young coach and thought he could reinvent the wheel, but there are reasons why coaches don’t deviate from the norm with much success. I think Denver will play much better this week and surprise people with a cover at home.

Arizona Cardinals at Las Vegas Raiders (-5.5) – My pick is Las Vegas Raiders

The Cardinals (0-1 ATS) were smoked by the Chiefs 44-21 in their home opener. It wasn’t much of a game as the Cardinals scored some garbage time points to make it seem a little more competitive. Arizona missed WR DeAndre Hopkins (suspension) and it really made the Cardinals wide receiving corps seem top-heavy with his absence. They also couldn’t get the run game going as RB James Conner only gained 26 yards on ten attempts and QB Kyler Murray didn’t even have much success on the ground either. The Raiders (0-1) suffered a 24-19 loss to the Chargers on Sunday. Las Vegas did have some positive things to take away from the loss. Raiders QB Derek Carr should have success this year thanks to new wide receiver Davante Adams and a healthy TE Darren Waller. I wouldn’t be surprised if the Raiders were a top-five passing offense by the end of the year. The Cardinals will have a hard time stopping the Raiders through the air. They gave up five passing touchdowns to the Chiefs last week and I could see a similar outcome this week, so I’m taking the Raiders to cover at home.

Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers (-9.5) – My pick is Green Bay Packers

The Bears (1-0 ATS) won in their home opener 19-10 over the 49ers. It was a rain-soaked game that saw both offenses stall early in the game. Bears QB Justin Fields only attempted 17 passes and connected on eight of them for 121 yards. It’s hard to figure out what their offense will look like when there is not a couple inches of standing water on the field. Fields should pass more this week, but I expect a lot of work on the ground again. The Packers (0-1 ATS) went to Minnesota and fell 23-7 on the road. Green Bay fell behind early and never got close. Packers QB Aaron Rodgers only passed for 195 yards, which is his lowest total in a game in recent memory. He missed former WR Davante Adams, even if he wouldn’t want to admit it. Rodgers is a smart guy and they will have a better scheme this week. Green Bay have owned Chicago the last couple years. The Bears haven’t even covered the spread since late-2018. Rodgers will play better this week and cover at home.

Tennessee Titans at Buffalo Bills (-9.5) – My pick is Buffalo Bills

The Titans (0-1 ATS) were surprised by the Giants and lost 21-20. They jumped out to a 13-0 lead at halftime, but they couldn’t stop Giants RB Saquon Barkley in the second-half. They had trouble getting their own running game going as Titans RB Derrick Henry failed to eclipse 4.0 yards per carry in the loss. I’m not bullish on the Titans this season. If Henry isn’t the same beast as he’s been the last few seasons, they are going to struggle. The Bills (1-0 ATS) had a great debut on Thursday night when they defeated the Rams 31-10. Buffalo’s defense could be the best in the league. The addition of LB Von Miller was huge and instantly makes them a Super Bowl contender. I love the Bills in this contest and think their defense will be up to stopping Henry at the line. I’m taking the Bills to cover in this one.

Minnesota Vikings at Philadelphia Eagles (-1.5) – My pick is Minnesota Vikings

The Vikings (1-0 ATS) won their home opener 23-7 over the Packers. Green Bay didn’t have an answer for Vikings WR Justin Jefferson, who caught nine passes for 184 yards and two touchdowns. There are very few teams in the entire league that could keep up with Jefferson in single coverage. He will be a problem for the entire league and is one of the reasons why I think QB Kirk Cousins could have his best season of his career. The Eagles (0-1 ATS) traveled to Detroit and left with the 38-35 win. It wasn’t very close for most of the game, but the Eagles gave up way too many points in the fourth quarter. Philly’s defense does worry me this season, but I think the Eagles offense has enough playmakers to make up for some of their defensive woes. Eagles QB Jalen Hurts has some new weapons on offense and they are already paying off. New WR A.J. Brown caught ten of his 13 targets for 155 yards in the win and they added 216 yards on the ground. Philly’s balanced offensive attack will keep them close in most games. I think the Eagles secondary will struggle with the Vikings passing game. It is the biggest factor in my decision to take the points in this one. I wouldn’t be surprised if the Vikings left with the outright win.

*These picks are for entertainment purposes

Sweetbob’s NFL picks against the spread record in previous seasons:
2013: 133-95-10
2014: 131-114-9
2015: 150-108-9
2016: 143-120-13
2017: 144-115-16
2018: 141-118-13
2019: 159-119-7
2020: 152-121-8
2021: 155-129-6
2022: 7-8-1

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About the Author…

Bobby Roberts (otherwise known as Sweetbob) is the creator of ‘America’s White Boy’ and contributor at Project Shanks. His writing has been featured on ESPN’s ‘SportsNation’, Sports Illustrated’s Hot Clicks, Guyspeed, and various other sites. You can follow him on Twitter at @Sweetbob