I went 9-7 against the spread last week. 

COVID-19 is still running roughshod through the NFL. The list of players in COVID protocol keeps growing every single day. Luckily, asymptomatic players should be able to get off the list faster than in previous weeks due to new guidelines.

I would suggest placing your bets on Saturday night to try to avoid surprises. I was lucky last week and my bets weren’t destroyed by new COVID cases. Last week, I placed my bets Wednesday evening and I wouldn’t advise that unless you want to lock in an advantageous point spread.

Can the Los Angeles Rams cover on the road against Baltimore?

We pick every NFL game against the spread and throw out a few upsets in Week 17 of the 2021 NFL season.

Jacksonville Jaguars at New England Patriots (-15.5) – My pick is New England Patriots

The Jaguars are 2-13 outright and 4-11 against the spread. They are coming off a 26-21 road loss against the Jets. They lost RB James Robinson (Achilles) for the foreseeable future as well. On top of that, nine players landed on the COVID list on Monday. The Patriots are 9-6 outright and against the spread this season. They are coming off a 33-21 home loss to the Bills, so they split the season series. Patriots QB Mac Jones played like a rookie as he only completed 14 of 32 passes and threw two interceptions. He was greatly helped by RB Damien Harris, who scored three rushing touchdowns. The Jaguars are clearly playing for the #1 pick and could wrap it up with a loss here. The Jaguars are missing a lot of talent, and even though this is a huge spread, I don’t see them scoring any points on Sunday. I’m taking the Patriots to cover at home.

Philadelphia Eagles at Washington Football Team (+3.5) – My pick is Philadelphia Eagles

The Eagles are 8-7 outright and 8-6-1 against the spread. They are coming off a 34-10 home win over the Giants. RB Miles Sanders suffered a broken hand in the win. Philly has a lot of talent depth in the backfield and should be able to overcome that loss. Washington is 6-9 outright and 5-9-1 against the spread. They are coming off an embarrassing 56-14 road loss to the Cowboys. The game was out of hand by the second quarter. It was the first time in two months that Washington was beaten by more than ten points. Philly is on a three-game winning streak and are 4-1-1 against the spread over their last six games. They are playing well right now and have handled business against below-average teams. I’m taking the Eagles to cover on Sunday.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New York Jets (+13) – My pick is Tampa Buccaneers

The Bucs are 11-4 outright and 8-7 against the spread. They are coming off a 32-6 road win over the Panthers. It was a nice outcome considering Tampa Bay was shutout in their previous game. The backfield duo of Ronald Jones II and Ke’Shawn Vaughn lessened the load for QB Tom Brady, who was without wide receivers Chris Godwin and Mike Evans. Also, the Bucs defense confused the Panthers quarterbacks. The Jets are 4-11 outright and 5-10 against the spread. They are coming off a 26-21 home win over the Jaguars. The teams traded the lead a few times and the Jets running game was the reason they were able to get the dub. I would like to see Jets QB Zach Wilson do a little more with his feet in the future. He busted a couple big gains in the win. Tom Brady used to make a living pounded the Jets. He will be missing a couple targets, but WR Antonio Brown was a godsend last week and will be getting the most targets against the Jets. I expect the Bucs defense will force the young quarterback into a couple turnovers and I’m taking the Bucs to cover.

Miami Dolphins at Tennessee Titans (-3) – My pick is Miami Dolphins

The Dolphins are 8-7 outright and 8-6-1 against the spread. They are coming off a 20-3 road win over the Saints on Monday Night Football. They are playing their best football right now and have won seven-straight games (8-1 ATS). I also love the addition of RB Duke Johnson, who will give them depth when RB Myles Gaskin is 100%. The Titans are 10-5 outright and 9-6 against the spread this season. They are coming off a 20-17 home win over the Niners on Thursday Night Football. The Titans offense was rough and he they faced competent quarterback, they would have suffered the loss. Tennessee is holding onto the AFC South lead by a game and desperately need a win here, but the Dolphins are playing too well right now. I’m taking the points in this game.

Las Vegas Raiders at Indianapolis Colts (-5.5) – My pick is Indianapolis Colts

The Raiders are 8-7 outright and 6-9 against the spread. They are coming off a 17-13 home win over the Broncos. Denver didn’t perform well and still had the lead at halftime. The Raiders made some adjustments and shutout the Broncos in the second-half. RB Josh Jacobs had a big game gaining 129 yards on the ground. The Raiders miss TE Darren Waller and it’s unknown if he will play this week. The Colts are 9-6 outright and 10-5 against the spread this season. They are coming off a 22-16 road win over the Cardinals. Indy lost a handful of players that morning to the COVID list. They were without LB Darius Leonard, G Quenton Nelson and G Mark Glowinski. Colts RB Jonathan Taylor still cracked the 100-yard-mark, but he was missing three on his starting line. Another lineman landed in COVID protocol this week when T Braden Smith was placed there on Monday. It’s unknown how many players the Colts will get back from the list, so keep an eye on the injury report. Also, QB Carson Wentz is in COVID protocol, which means backup QB Sam Ehlinger will be starting. I expect a huge dose of Taylor in this game. This game could be close to the point spread, especially if the Colts can’t get a couple linemen back. I still think Taylor will be able to run on the Raiders and squeak out a cover at home.

Kansas City Chiefs at Cincinnati Bengals (+5.5) – My pick is Cincinnati Bengals

The Chiefs are 11-4 outright and 8-7 against the spread. They are coming off a 36-10 home win over the Steelers. Pittsburgh is struggling right now and the Chiefs took advantage of those woes. Kansas City is on a eight-game winning streak (6-2 ATS) and their defense is playing their best football. The Bengals are 9-6 outright and 8-7 against the spread. They are coming off a 41-21 home win over the Ravens. Bengals QB Joe Burrow had 525 passing yards in the win. The Ravens pass defense is horrible and Burrow has been able to do well against bad pass defenses this season. This could be a shoot-out through the air and I think Bengals RB Joe Mixon will be the difference maker. I’m taking the points in this game.

New York Giants at Chicago Bears (-6) – My pick is Chicago Bears

The Giants are 4-11 outright and 6-9 against the spread. They are coming off a 34-10 road loss to the Eagles. The Giants haven’t been able to find a serviceable quarterback since losing Daniel Jones to a neck injury. It’s been a struggle to put up more than ten points in recent weeks. The Bears are 5-10 outright and against the spread this week. They are coming off a 25-24 road win over the Seahawks. They started QB Nick Foles over rookie QB Justin Fields and it paid off. Fields was dealing with an ankle injury and was considered day-to-day, but the Bears were cautious. The Giants are a mess right now and the Bears are better than their record would suggest. Chicago has played a tough schedule this year. I’m taking Chicago to cover against the injury-riddled Giants.

Atlanta Falcons at Buffalo Bills (-14.5) – My pick is Buffalo Bills

The Falcons are 7-8 outright and 6-9 against the spread. They are coming off a 20-16 home win over the Lions. The Lions were without QB Jared Goff and D’Andre Swift, so they were able to inch out a win against a depleted Lions offense. The Falcons were able to get the ball to TE Kyle Pitts for 102 yards and it was their only consistent offense. The Bills are 9-6 outright and 8-6-1 against the spread this season. They are coming off a 33-21 road win over the Patriots. They have now won back-to-back games, which is a nice sign since they have looked average since their loss to the Jaguars in early-November. Buffalo has been able to run up scores on bad teams this year. The Falcons defense could have trouble on Sunday. I’m taking the Bills to cover on Sunday.

Los Angeles Rams at Baltimore Ravens (+3.5) – My pick is Los Angeles Rams

The Rams are 11-4 outright and 8-7 against the spread. They are coming off a 30-23 road win over the Vikings. They have now won four in-a-row and have covered them all. It is a far cry from their six-game losing streak against the spread that spanned all of November and half of October. The additions of WR Odell Beckham Jr. and LB Von Miller has helped a lot. The Ravens are 8-7 outright and 7-8 against the spread this season. They are coming off a 41-21 road loss to the Bengals. Their pass defense is atrocious due to injuries and teams are taking advantage of it. The Ravens had to start third-string QB Josh Johnson due to backup QB Tyler Huntley’s COVID list addition and starting QB Lamar Jackson prolonged ankle injury. It doesn’t matter who starts for the Ravens right now, the Rams should be able to rack up a lot of yards through the air. I’m taking the Rams to cover on the road.

Houston Texans at San Francisco 49ers (-13) – My pick is Houston Texans

The Texans are 4-11 outright and 7-8 against the spread. They are coming off a 41-29 home win over the Chargers. It was surprising since the Texans were among the hardest hit teams and had more than a dozen players on the COVID list. RB Rex Burkhead had a big game and QB Davis Mills continues to impress me. The Niners are 8-7 outright and 7-8 against the spread this season. They are coming off a 20-17 road loss to the Titans. Niners QB Jimmy Garoppolo injured his thumb in the loss. It’s unknown how long he will be out, but other quarterbacks have missed a few weeks with the similar UCL thumb injury. The Texans should get a number of players back if they are asymptomatic. I’m taking the points in this game.

Denver Broncos at Los Angeles Chargers (-5.5) – My pick is Denver Broncos

The Broncos are 7-8 outright and against the spread. They are coming off a 17-13 road loss to the Raiders. Their offense just couldn’t get going and they even had trouble running the ball, which is rare for Denver this season. They were without QB Teddy Bridgewater (concussion) and it looks like it could be a game-time decision if he will suit up against this week. The Chargers are 8-7 outright and 7-8 against the spread. They are coming off a surprising 41-29 road loss to the Texans. They were without some key players due to COVID (DE Joey Bosa, OL Corey Linsley & more). The Broncos were able to defeat the Chargers 28-13 in late-November, but due to the recent COVID surge, we are dealing with different circumstances. I still think the Broncos will be able to run on the Chargers and keep this one tight, so I’m taking the points.

Carolina Panthers at New Orleans Saints (-7) – My pick is New Orleans Saints

The Panthers are 5-10 outright and against the spread. They are coming off a 32-6 home loss the Bucs. Carolina played both quarterbacks Cam Newton and Sam Darnold, but neither had much success. They haven’t been able to run the ball well since RB Christian McCaffrey (ankle) was lost for the year. So, if you can’t run the ball and aren’t getting consistent play at quarterback, your offense is wrecked. The Saints are 7-8 outright and against the spread this season. They are coming off a 20-3 home loss to the Dolphins. The Saints had to start third-string rookie QB Ian Book since both quarterbacks Taysom Hill and Trevor Siemian landed on the COVID list last Friday. There is a chance that they could get one of them back before the game, but it’s currently unknown. The Saints defense has been pretty darn good of late and even though I don’t know the Saints quarterback status, I don’t see the Panthers being able to move the ball well on Sunday. I’m taking the Saints to cover this weekend.

Arizona Cardinals at Dallas Cowboys (-5.5) – My pick is Dallas Cowboys

The Cardinals are 10-5 outright and 9-6 against the spread. They are coming off a 22-16 home loss to the Colts. The passing offense just isn’t the same without WR DeAndre Hopkins and QB Kyler Murray’s numbers have taken a hit. The Cowboys are 11-4 outright and 12-3 against the spread this season. They are coming off a 56-14 blowout win over Washington. The Cowboys defense setup the offense to succeed all game long. I think Murray will have trouble passing the ball, like how he struggled against the Rams a couple weeks ago. I’m taking the Cowboys to cover at home.

Detroit Lions at Seattle Seahawks (-6.5) – My pick is Detroit Lions

The Lions are 2-12-1 outright and 10-5 against the spread. They are coming off a 20-16 road loss to the Falcons. They were without QB Jared Goff (COVID) and RB D’Andre Swift (shoulder), so the offense was limited. Goff just cleared COVID protocols, but WR Josh Reynolds landed on the list today. The Seahawks are 5-10 outright and 7-8 against the spread this season. They are coming off a 25-24 home loss to the Bears. Chicago turned it on late in the fourth quarter and converted a two-point conversion to take the lead in the final minutes. Seattle is too inconsistent on offense right now and their pass defense could fail them. I’m taking the points in this game.

Minnesota Vikings at Green Bay Packers (-6.5) – My pick is Minnesota Vikings

The Vikings are 7-8 outright and 8-7 against the spread. They are coming off a 30-23 home loss to the Rams. They were without RB Dalvin Cook (COVID), so their offense was one-dimensional and the Rams were able to make some key stops. The Packers are 12-3 outright and 11-4 against the spread this season. They are coming off a 24-22 home win over the Browns. If Cleveland were a little more careful with the ball (Browns QB Baker Mayfield threw four interceptions), they would have won the game. The Packers had trouble stopping the Browns running game in the second-half. The Vikings could get Cook back this week and that could be trouble for Green Bay. If that happens, Minnesota’s offense will be a tough match-up for the Packers. I’m taking the points in this game.

Cleveland Browns at Pittsburgh Steelers (+3) – My pick is Cleveland Browns

The Browns are 7-8 outright and against the spread. They are coming off a 24-22 road loss to the Packers. Browns QB Baker Mayfield lost the game for Cleveland. He is just turning the ball over way too often and had they just focused more on running the ball, they would have gotten the outright win. I think they will focus more on getting the ball to RB Nick Chubb this week. The Steelers are 7-7-1 outright and 6-9 against the spread this season. They are coming off a 36-10 road loss to the Chiefs. The Steelers offense is just awful right now and they can’t convert third downs to keep drives going. The Browns defense should be able to stymy the Steelers and I’m taking Cleveland to cover on Monday Night Football.

*These picks are for entertainment purposes

Sweetbob’s NFL picks against the spread record in previous seasons:
2013: 133-95-10
2014: 131-114-9
2015: 150-108-9
2016: 143-120-13
2017: 144-115-16
2018: 141-118-13
2019: 159-119-7
2020: 152-121-8
20210: 130-100-4

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About the Author…

Bobby Roberts (otherwise known as Sweetbob) is the creator of ‘America’s White Boy’ and contributor at Project Shanks. His writing has been featured on ESPN’s ‘SportsNation’, Sports Illustrated’s Hot Clicks, Guyspeed, and various other sites. You can follow him on Twitter at @Sweetbob