I went 6-9 against the spread last week. 

I had a rough week and by far the worst showing of the season. I had a couple close losses, but those are still big, fat L’s at the pay window.

We have a rough idea which teams are in the playoff race and which teams that could soon pack it in the for the season. We could still see a few surprises though.

This time last month, it looked like the Dolphins were in the race for the #1 overall pick, but they’ve now won four games in-a-row heading into this week.

Who will win the shootout between the Chargers and Bengals?

We pick every NFL game against the spread and throw out a few upsets in Week 13 of the 2021 NFL season.

Dallas Cowboys at New Orleans Saints (+4) – My pick is Dallas Cowboys

The Cowboys are 7-4 outright and 8-3 against the spread this season. They are coming off a 36-33 overtime loss to the Raiders on Thanksgiving. Not only did they suffer a loss in a marquee game, but a number of the Cowboys coaching staff have tested positive for COVID-19. Dallas head coach Mike McCarthy is the biggest name that’s out and defensive coordinator Dan Quinn will serve as head coach this week. The Saints are 5-6 outright and against the spread this season. They are coming off a 31-6 home loss to the Bills. They were without running backs Alvin Kamara (knee) and Mark Ingram (knee), so QB Trevor Siemian was left out to dry. It looks like they will have Ingram back this week, but Kamara’s status is still iffy. The Cowboys have a lot of issues going into this game, but it does look like they will have WR CeeDee Lamb and DE DeMarcus Lawrence back from injuries. If Kamara isn’t healthy enough to play, the Saints offense will be a bit too limited to hang with the Cowboys. I’m taking Dallas to cover on Thursday night.

New York Giants at Miami Dolphins (-4) – My pick is Miami Dolphins

The Giants are 4-7 outright and 6-5 against the spread. They are coming off a 13-7 home win against the Eagles. The Giants saw Eagles QB Jalen Hurts implode by throwing three interceptions, but still barely won the game. The Giants offense is still extremely flawed and now QB Daniel Jones is listed as questionable after suffering a neck strain against the Eagles. It seems like backup QB Mike Glennon will start this week in his place. The Dolphins are 5-7 outright and 6-5-1 against the spread this season. They are coming off a 33-10 home win over the Panthers. Dolphins QB Tua Tagovailoa completed 27 of 31 passes in an efficient start for the young quarterback. He’s been much better since his comeback performance against the Ravens a few weeks ago. The Dolphins are on a four-game winning stream and have covered all of those games. Miami is a tad underrated at the moment and I’m taking them to cover at home.

Indianapolis Colts at Houston Texans (+9) – My pick is Indianapolis Colts

The Colts are 6-6 outright and 7-5 against the spread. They are coming off a 38-31 home loss to the Buccaneers. Tampa Bay was able to march down the field and score a touchdown in the final minute of the game. The Bucs were just the better team in the second-half. The Texans are 2-9 outright and 5-6 against the spread this season. They are coming off a 21-14 home loss to the Jets. Houston had a small lead in the first-half, but failed to score after halftime. The Texans had trouble stopping the Jets running game…which could spell trouble for them this week against Colts RB Jonathan Taylor. The Colts beat the Texans 31-3 in mid-October and Indy has improved since then. This game could get out of hand by halftime. I’m taking the Colts to cover on the road.

Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions (+7) – My pick is Detroit Lions

The Vikings are 5-6 outright and 6-5 against the spread. They are coming off a 34-26 road loss to the Niners. Vikings RB Dalvin Cook injured his shoulder in the game and will miss a few games. The Niners were able to run the ball all over the Vikings on Sunday (208 rushing yards). The Lions are 0-10-1 outright and 7-4 against the spread. They are coming off a 16-14 loss to the Bears on Thanksgiving. Over their last three games, they are 0-2-1 and have a point differential of -5. They have been losing some real heartbreakers this season. Lions RB D’Andre Swift (shoulder) is currently questionable and it looks more like doubtful at this point. The Vikings will most likely win this game, but the Lions have been plucky and keeping games close. I’m taking the points on Sunday.

Philadelphia Eagles at New York Jets (+6.5) – My pick is Philadelphia Eagles

The Eagles are 5-7 outright and 6-6 against the spread. They are coming off a 13-7 road loss to the Giants. QB Jalen Hurts struggled in the game threw three interceptions and tweaked his ankle in the loss. RB Miles Sanders suffered an ankle as well and both are listed as questionable. It looks like Hurts is planning to start (and preparing backup QB Gardner Minshew if needed) while Sanders status looks less likely to play. The Jets are 3-8 outright and against the spread this season. They are coming off a 21-14 road win against the Texans. Jets QB Zach Wilson struggled in his first game back from injury and he was bailed out by his running game. I expect the Eagles and Jets to pound the rock all game. It wouldn’t surprise me if either quarterback threw more than 15 times on Sunday. The Eagles will bounce back and cover against the Jets.

Arizona Cardinals at Chicago Bears (+8) – My pick is Arizona Cardinals

The Cardinals are 9-2 outright and 8-3 against the spread. They are coming off a bye, and in their previous game, they beat the Seahawks 23-13. They have been without QB Kyler Murray since Week 8 and it looks like he will be starting against the Bears. The Bears are 4-7 outright and against the spread this season. They are coming off a 16-14 road win against the Lions on Thanksgiving. Chicago was without QB Justin Fields (ribs), but is currently listed as probable. The Bears defense has a lot of players on the injury report and will struggle to stop Murray on Sunday. I’m taking the Cardinals to cover on the road.

Los Angeles Chargers at Cincinnati Bengals (-3) – My pick is Cincinnati Bengals

The Chargers are 6-5 outright and 5-6 against the spread this season. They are coming off a 28-13 road loss to the Broncos. It was tight game until the fourth quarter when Broncos CB Patrick Surtain III ran back an interception for a touchdown to put the game out of reach. The Chargers run defense is really being a big issue for them as the Broncos converted way too many third downs down the stretch. The Bengals are 7-4 outright and 6-5 against the spread. They are coming off a 41-10 home win against the Steelers. Cincinnati has really fixed their issues over their bye week early this month. They have now played great in back-to-back weeks. The Chargers defense will struggle against Bengals RB Joe Mixon this week. I’m taking the Bengals to cover at home.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Atlanta Falcons (+10.5) – My pick is Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The Buccaneers are 8-3 outright and 5-6 against the spread. They are coming off a 38-31 road win against the Colts. They leaned on RB Leonard Fournette in the red zone and spammed the ball to TE Rob Gronkowski between the 20’s. It was a good gameplan against Indy. The Falcons are 5-6 outright and against the spread this season. They are coming off a 21-14 road win against the Jaguars. Atlanta played much better with RB/WR Cordarrelle Patterson back from injury. It helped that Jaguars QB Trevor Lawrence was once again near 50% completion percentage. Tampa Bay beat Atlanta early this season 48-25, but the Falcons are now a different team. They are a one-man offense with Patterson amassing a large portion of their touches on offense. The Bucs have a good run defense and if they can limit Patterson, they should cover this game against the Falcons.

Washington Football Team at Las Vegas Raiders (-2.5) – My pick is Washington Football Team

The Footballers are 5-6 outright and 4-7 against the spread. They are coming off a 17-15 home win against the Seahawks. They are now on a three-game winning streak and have covered those games as well. WFT RB Antonio Gibson and QB Taylor Heinicke have played well during this stretch. The Raiders are 6-5 outright and 5-6 against the spread this season. They are coming off a 36-33 road overtime win against the Cowboys on Thanksgiving. It was a surprising outcome given that they were on a three-game losing streak heading into that game. That game was watched by more people than any other regular season NFL game since 1990. The Cowboys were missing a lot of talent on offense, so keep that in mind. This line should probably be a pick’em at best, so I’ll take the points in this game.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Los Angeles Rams (-13) – My pick is Jacksonville Jaguars

The Jaguars are 2-9 outright and 4-7 against the spread. They are coming off a 21-14 home loss to the Falcons. Jacksonville’s offense has been tough to watch at times. They also lost TE Dan Arnold to a toe injury that will most likely end his season. The Rams are 7-4 outright and 4-7 against the spread this season. They are coming off a 36-28 road loss against the Packers. The Rams have now lost three-straight games and haven’t covered a game since October 17th. They have been overhyped for most of the season and rumors circulated last week that Rams QB Matthew Stafford was dealing with some injuries. The Jaguars have been able to hold off a couple double-digit spreads this season. Jacksonville’s biggest issue is run defense and the Rams don’t have a robust backfield. I’m taking the points in this game.

Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers (+4) – My pick is Baltimore Ravens

The Ravens are 8-3 outright and 5-6 against the spread. They are coming off a 16-10 home win against the Browns. Ravens QB Lamar Jackson may have had the worst game of his career. He threw four interceptions and only had 233 total yards. Baltimore was greatly helped by a rather broken Browns offense. The Steelers are 5-5 outright and 4-7 against the spread this season. They are coming off an embarrassing 41-10 loss to the Bengals. Pittsburgh was outmatched early and it got out of control. It may be a few games before I feel comfortable putting any jellybeans on the Steelers. The Ravens will make adjustments on offense and cover this game on the road.

San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks (+3.5) – My pick is San Francisco 49ers

The Niners are 6-5 outright and 5-6 against the spread. They are coming off a 34-26 home win against the Vikings. They have won three-straight games and have covered all of those contests. They did suffer a couple big losses as WR Deebo Samuel and LB Fred Warner are both expected to miss the next game or two with injuries. Samuel’s versatility has helped transform the Niners running offense. The Seahawks are 3-8 outright and 5-6 against the spread this season. They are coming off a 17-15 road loss to Washington. Seattle’s offense has only scored 28 total points in the three games since QB Russell Wilson returned from injury. He is getting little help from his backfield and he doesn’t seem like he can throw very deep, which means limited targets to WR D.K. Metcalf. I think the Niners can overcome to the loss of Samuel since they can lean on TE George Kittle and WR Brandon Aiyuk. Seattle is broken right now and their issues will take time to sort themselves out. I’m taking the Niners to cover on the road.

Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs (-10) – My pick is Denver Broncos

The Broncos are 6-5 outright and against the spread. They are coming off a 28-13 home win against the Chargers Broncos QB Teddy Bridgewater suffered a shin injury in the first-half of that game. He missed a couple drives, but was able to return and finish the game. He also got a lot of help from his running backs in the win. The Chiefs are 7-4 outright and 4-7 against the spread this season. They are coming off their bye, and in their previous game, beat the Cowboys 19-9. They are slowly getting some players back from major injuries and some that have just been limited. Their injury report is among the shortest in the league right now. I still think the Broncos will hang with the Chiefs in this game. Kansas City will most likely win, but Denver will keep it within ten points.

New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills (-2.5) – My pick is Buffalo Bills

The Patriots are 8-4 outright and against the spread this season. They are coming off a 36-13 win against the Titans, who are trying to figure out their identity on offense after losing RB Derrick Henry for the season. The Patriots have had a very easy schedule since their overtime loss to the Cowboys back on October 17th. They have played the Jets, Browns, Falcons and this currently broken Titans team during their six-game winning streak. The Bills are 7-4 outright and 6-4-1 against the spread this year. They are coming off a 31-6 win over the Saints on Thanksgiving. They helped right the ship after suffering a blowout loss to the Colts four days previous. They did suffer a major loss in that game when CB Tre’Davious White injured his knee. He will miss the remainder of the season. New England is a bit overrated at the moment after running through a lot of non-playoff teams. I think the Bills will cover this game at home.

*These picks are for entertainment purposes

Sweetbob’s NFL picks against the spread record in previous seasons:
2013: 133-95-10
2014: 131-114-9
2015: 150-108-9
2016: 143-120-13
2017: 144-115-16
2018: 141-118-13
2019: 159-119-7
2020: 152-121-8
20210: 94-77-3

Follow us on Twitter @Sweetbob & ‘LIKE’ us on Facebook!

About the Author…

Bobby Roberts (otherwise known as Sweetbob) is the creator of ‘America’s White Boy’ and contributor at Project Shanks. His writing has been featured on ESPN’s ‘SportsNation’, Sports Illustrated’s Hot Clicks, Guyspeed, and various other sites. You can follow him on Twitter at @Sweetbob