I went 10-5 against the spread last week. 

I’ve had a couple up and down weeks recently, so it was nice to have big week heading into Thanksgiving.

Historically, I’ve done very well on Thanksgiving. I’ve had multiple three-team parlays hit over the years and I once had a streak of twelve-straight covers over the course of three Thanksgivings.

I hope I didn’t just jinx myself for bringing that up.

Can the Colts cover at home against Tom Brady?

We pick every NFL game against the spread and throw out a few upsets in Week 12 of the 2021 NFL season.

Chicago Bears at Detroit Lions (+3) – My pick is Chicago Bears

The Bears are 3-7 outright and 4-6 against the spread this season. They are coming off a 16-13 home loss to the Ravens. Chicago lost QB Justin Fields to a rib injury that will keep him out for at least a week. Bears backup QB Andy Dalton wasn’t super accurate in relief, but did throw two touchdowns and didn’t throw an interception. Based on the targets, it was clear that the gameplan was to throw it to WR Darnell Mooney, who only caught five of 16 targets last week. The Lions are 0-9-1 outright and 6-4 against the spread. They are coming off a 13-10 road loss to the Browns. Detroit started QB Tim Boyle in place of starter Jared Goff (oblique) and he was awful. He was 15 for 23 for only 77 yards and threw two interceptions. It looks like Boyle will be the starter for Thursday game as well. You guys should probably sleep in on Thursday since this might be one of the worst quarterback match-up on Thanksgiving in recent memory. I expect the Bears and Lions to run the ball a lot, and if the Lions need to throw, it will be ugly. I have faith that Dalton will be a serviceable quarterback in this game. I’m taking the Bears to cover on Thanksgiving.

Las Vegas Raiders at Dallas Cowboys (-7.5) – My pick is Dallas Cowboys

The Raiders are 5-5 outright and 4-6 against the spread. They are coming off a 32-13 home loss to the Bengals. It was a close game at halftime and into much of the third quarter, but the Bengals just turned it on in the fourth. Cincinnati finished the game by scoring 21 unanswered points. The Raiders run defense were beaten down from a barrage of carries from Bengals RB Joe Mixon. The Cowboys are 7-3 outright and 8-2 against the spread this season. They are coming off a 19-9 road loss against the Chiefs. If the Cowboys were at full-strength, they would have beaten the Chiefs, but their injury report was long heading into the game and they lost RB Ezekiel Elliott (knee) and WR CeeDee Lamb (concussion) to injuries during the contest. Both players are currently listed as questionable for this week’s game. The Cowboys could get LT Tyron Smith back for this game, as he was a full participant in practice on Tuesday (and so was Zeke). The Cowboys will most likely be without wide receivers Amari Cooper (COVID) and Lamb for this game, so I expect Dallas will feed the ball to running backs Tony Pollard and Zeke. If the Raiders run defense is sucking wind in the fourth, like they were last week, it wouldn’t surprise me if the Cowboys were to cover at home.

Buffalo Bills at New Orleans Saints (+5.5) – My pick is Buffalo Bills

The Bills are 6-4 outright and 5-4-1 against the spread. They are coming off a 41-15 home loss to the Colts. They couldn’t stop Colts RB Jonathan Taylor, who scored five touchdowns. Buffalo has a good run defense, but there have been two running backs that they just couldn’t stop, Titans RB Derrick Henry and Taylor. I wouldn’t view this as the Bills defense is collapsing, it was a great game from a promising young running back. I do worry about a few aspects of the Bills offense, mainly if they are playing their best running back combo right now. The Saints are 5-5 outright and against the spread this season. The Saints are coming off a 40-29 road loss to the Eagles. Philly had a 33-7 lead at the end of the third quarter, but the Saints did nearly make it a competitive game by the end. New Orleans just can’t consistently move the ball when RB Alvin Kamara (knee) is out of the game. They could have an even bigger issue on Thursday since it looks like they will also be without RB Mark Ingram (knee) and RT Ryan Ramczyk (knee) for this game. New Orleans are just missing too much on offense to move the ball well against a Bills defense looking to rebound from last week’s assault. I’m taking the Bills to cover on the road.

Atlanta Falcons at Jacksonville Jaguars (+1) – My pick is Jacksonville Jaguars

The Falcons are 4-6 outright and against the spread this season. They are coming off an embarrassing 25-0 home loss to the Patriots. As soon as I heard that RB Cordarrelle Patterson, who was a game-time decision, wasn’t suiting up, I knew it was going to be a rough game for Atlanta. The Patriots didn’t have to worry about the run and New England picked off Atlanta’s quarterbacks four times. The Jaguars are 2-8 outright and 4-6 against the spread. They are coming off a 30-10 home loss to the Niners. Jacksonville couldn’t get a running game going and Lawrence was ineffective. He only threw for 158 yards and didn’t throw to one of his favorite targets TE Dan Arnold, not even once. The Jaguars will get TE James O’Shaughnessy (ankle) back this week. He has been out since Week 3 and if the Jaguars can implement some two-tight end sets, I think a Arnold/O’Shaughnessy tandem could get this Jags offense flowing. The Falcons will most likely get Patterson back this week, but I’m going to roll the dice that the Jaguars are able to run the ball this week themselves. The Falcons run defense has been awful and if Robinson can get going, I think the Jags will win this game outright.

Tennessee Titans at New England Patriots (-6) – My pick is New England Patriots

The Titans are 8-3 outright and 7-4 against the spread. They are coming off a 22-13 home loss to the Texans. It was a disastrous game that saw QB Ryan Tannehill throw four interceptions and they struggled to consistently run the ball, again. This will be an ongoing issue without RB Derrick Henry and I don’t think their answer is currently on the roster. The Patriots are 7-4 outright and against the spread this season. They are coming off a 25-0 road win over the Falcons. Their defense played great and gave their offense solid field position. I would have liked to have seen the Pats get in the end zone more, but they were in no risk of losing that game. The Patriots have covered five games in-a-row after starting the season 2-4 ATS. Their defense is the reason they’ve been covering since they’ve only allowed a total of 13 points over their last three games. If this line goes above a touchdown, I’d be a little less enthusiastic about taking the Patriots, but I like where this line is right now.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Cincinnati Bengals (-4.5) – My pick is Pittsburgh Steelers

The Steelers are 5-4-1 outright and 4-6 against the spread. They are coming off a 41-37 road loss to the Chargers. The Steelers were down by 14 points with eight minutes left to play. They scored 17 unanswered points to take the lead, but gave up a 53-yard touchdown in the final minutes to lose the game. Steelers QB Ben Roethlisberger had his best passing game in a long time. He threw three touchdowns and passed for 273 yards in the loss. He needed a big game as RB Najee Harris was having trouble moving the ball on the ground. The Bengals are 6-4 outright and 5-5 against the spread this season. They are coming off a 32-13 road win against the Raiders. Bengals RB Joe Mixon had a nice game and he wore down the Raiders front-seven. In their previous meeting, the Bengals beat the Steelers 24-10 back in late-September. Big Ben was dealing with one of his numerous injuries back then. I think he’s finally getting healthy(ish) and we could see him air it out to Claypool a few times in this game. The Bengals may win this game outright, but I think it will be tight, so give me the points. 

New York Jets at Houston Texans (-2.5) – My pick is Houston Texans

The Jets are 2-8 outright and against the spread this season. They are coming off a 24-17 home loss to the Dolphins. The Jets gave the start to QB Joe Flacco and he had one of the better Jets quarterback performances this season. He was 24 for 39 for 291 yards and two touchdowns. Sadly, they did lose rookie RB Michael Carter to an ankle injury. He is expected to miss a couple weeks. The Texans are 2-8 outright and 5-5 against the spread. They are coming off a 22-13 road win against the Titans. The Texans are a better team with QB Tyrod Taylor under center. I’m not bashing rookie QB Davis Mills performance, I think he did better than expected, but Taylor has always outperformed expectations as well. He has always had a knack for keeping games close and pulling out a few surprise wins. The Jets were going to be coy about which quarterback will start this game, but quarterbacks Mike White and Flacco both went on the COVID list, so it looks like rookie QB Zach Wilson (knee) will start, even if they wanted to hold off his return for another week. He wasn’t great early this season and I can’t imagine he’s going to be good in his first start back from injury. I think the Texans will cover this at home.

Carolina Panthers at Miami Dolphins (+1) – My pick is Carolina Panthers

The Panthers are 5-6 outright and against the spread this season. They are coming off a 27-21 home loss against Washington. It was tied up late in the fourth, but Washington kicked two field goals late to pull out the win. It was a tough game for returning QB Cam Newton as he faced his former head coach Ron Rivera. He has impressed me so far and the time off has healed him. He didn’t look ‘right’ for most of the time with the Patriots last year, basically the final ten games. The Dolphins are 4-7 outright and 5-5-1 against the spread. They are coming off a 24-17 road win against the Jets. Dolphins QB Tua Tagovailoa is working through a broken finger injury, but he completed 27 of 33 passes for 273 yards in the win. He got a lot of help from rookie WR Jaylen Waddle, who caught eight of his nine targets. The Dolphins are on a three-game winning streak (3-0 ATS during the streak), but they’ve struggled against the run in the past. A healthy RB Christian McCaffrey and Cam Newton could be a problem for the Dolphins. This could be a tight game, but I think the Panthers running game will be too much for the Dolphins, so give me the Panthers.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Indianapolis Colts (+2.5) – My pick is Indianapolis Colts

The Bucs are 7-3 outright and 4-6 against the spread this season. They are coming off a 30-10 home win against the Giants. They needed that performance after back-to-back losses to Washington and New Orleans. Bucs QB Tom Brady threw for 307 yards and two touchdowns in the win. He didn’t get much help from his backfield, which could be concerning since the Giants run defense is only ranked 22nd. The Colts are 6-5 outright and 7-4 against the spread this season. They are coming off a 41-15 road win against the Bills. Colts RB Jonathan Taylor scored five touchdowns and QB Carson Wentz barely needed to clock in for this one. It was an unbelievable performance that put his name in the MVP race. They will need more of the team to be involved on offense if they hope to hang with the Super Bowl champs. Tampa Bay struggled in their last two road games and if the Colts can get a lead early in this one, I think this game will be tight. I’m taking the points in this game.

Philadelphia Eagles at New York Giants (+3.5) – My pick is Philadelphia Eagles

The Eagles are 5-6 outright and 6-5 against the spread. They are coming off a 40-29 home win against the Saints. This game wasn’t as close as the final score would dictate. Eagles QB Jalen Hurts and his backfield dominated this game. The Saints had a late-burst of points in the fourth quarter, but the game was already out of reach. The Giants are 3-7 outright and 5-5 against the spread this season. They are coming off a 30-10 road loss to the Bucs. Their offense just couldn’t get going and they fired offensive coordinator Jason Garrett today. Former Cleveland Browns head coach Freddie Kitchens will take over for Garrett. The Giants have a ton of injuries and they seem to have a different mix of three wide receivers out there every other game. I like what the Eagles are doing with their running game right now. They have RB Miles Sanders back healthy and backup RB Boston Scott played well in his absence. I think the Eagles will attack the Giants front-seven with the run and cover this game.

Los Angeles Chargers at Denver Broncos (+2.5) – My pick is Los Angeles Chargers

The Chargers are 6-4 outright and 5-5 against the spread this season. They are coming off a 41-37 home win against the Steelers. It was a nice showing from the Chargers who lost three of their previous four games heading into that one. I mentioned last week that I would like them to use RB Austin Ekeler more and they did just that. He scored four touchdowns in the win. They Broncos are 5-5 outright and against the spread. They are coming off their bye week, and in their previous game, they lost to the Eagle 30-13. Denver allowed over 200 yards rushing in that loss. If the Chargers use Ekeler like they did against the Steelers, I think this will be a long Sunday for the Broncos. If this line was larger than a field goal, I’d have to do a little more research, but I’m taking the Chargers to cover this spread.

Minnesota Vikings at San Francisco 49ers (-3) – My pick is Minnesota Vikings

The Vikings are 5-5 outright and 6-4 against the spread this season. They are coming off a 34-31 home win against the Packers. Vikings QB Kirk Cousins threw for 341 yards and three touchdowns. He spammed the ball to wide receivers Justin Jefferson and Adam Thielen. Jefferson is so damn fun to watch and reminds me of Reggie Wayne at times. The Niners are 5-5 outright and 4-6 against the spread. They are coming off a 30-10 road win against the Jaguars. The Niners have had so many injuries to their backfield that they have decided to use WR Deebo Samuel in the running game. He had eight carries for 79 yards and a touchdown. RB Jeff Wilson Jr. had 19 carries, but only managed 50 yards in the win. They could get RB Elijah Mitchell (finger) back this week, but he’s considered day-to-day as his finger is still bothering him. I’m not a fan of the Niners secondary and think the Vikings have the clear advantage. I expect Cousins will test them deep in this game. I’m taking the points and I wouldn’t be surprised if the Vikings win this one outright.

Los Angeles Rams at Green Bay Packers (pk) – My pick is Green Bay Packers

The Rams are 7-3 outright and 4-6 against the spread this season. They Rams are coming off their bye week, and in their previous game, they lost to the Niners 31-10. They Rams have failed to cover in four-straight games. They have played some weak teams during this stretch and had a pair of bloated 17-point betting lines. They lost WR Robert Woods (knee) and gained WR Odell Beckham Jr. recently, but OBJ didn’t impress in his debut. The Packers is 8-3 outright and 9-2 against the spread this season. They are coming off a 34-31 road loss to the Vikings. There was a lot of offense in the game, but the Packers pass defense struggled late in the game. Packers QB Aaron Rodgers shook the rust off from his subpar post-COVID performance against the Seahawks. He threw for 385 yards and four touchdowns in the loss. This game could mirror the Packers/Vikings game because there will be a lot of passing attempts and the potential for a lot of points. The Packers have faced Rams QB Matthew Stafford twice a year for many years. Green Bay will be prepared for him and I think that gives them the slight edge in this one. I’m taking the Packers on Sunday evening.

Cleveland Browns at Baltimore Ravens (-3.5) – My pick is Baltimore Ravens

The Browns are 6-5 outright and 5-6 against the spread. They are coming off a 13-10 home win against the Lions. It was an all-around ugly game for both teams. The lone star in the game was Browns RB Nick Chubb who ran for 130 yards on 22 carries. Browns QB Baker Mayfield had another subpar performance by barely cracking 50% completions for 176 yards and two interceptions. I think the Browns should start backup QB Case Keenum until Mayfield is healthy enough to look like his old self. The Ravens are 6-5 outright and 4-6 against the spread this season. They are coming off a 16-13 road win over the Bears. Ravens QB Lamar Jackson (illness) didn’t feel well enough to play, so backup QB Tyler Huntley got his first start. He wasn’t horrible and looked better than a lot of quarterbacks this week. Jackson is healthy enough to play this week and he should lead his team to a cover at home.

Seattle Seahawks at Washington Football Team (-1) – My pick is Washington Football Team

The Seahawks are 3-7 outright and 5-5 against the spread this season. They are coming off a 23-13 home loss to a Kyler Murray-less Cardinals team. Wilson hasn’t been great since he returned from a broken finger on his throwing hand. He hasn’t been able to hit the deep ball and WR D.K. Metcalf’s numbers have taken a big hit. Washington is 4-6 outright and 3-7 against the spread. They are coming off a 27-21 road win over the Panthers. They have now won and covered in back-to-back games since their bye week. It wasn’t an easy win as the game was tied until Washington hit two late field goals. WFT QB Taylor Heinicke has rebounded after a rough stretch in October. I don’t know if he will be Washington’s starting quarterback next season, but he’s making a case for being a dependable career backup (i.e. Ryan Fitzpatrick or Case Keenum), at the very least. Seattle has struggled against the run this season and Washington’s running game is the biggest reason for their November success. I’m going to roll the dice and I’m taking Washington to cover at home.

*These picks are for entertainment purposes

Sweetbob’s NFL picks against the spread record in previous seasons:
2013: 133-95-10
2014: 131-114-9
2015: 150-108-9
2016: 143-120-13
2017: 144-115-16
2018: 141-118-13
2019: 159-119-7
2020: 152-121-8
20210: 88-68-3

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About the Author…

Bobby Roberts (otherwise known as Sweetbob) is the creator of ‘America’s White Boy’ and contributor at Project Shanks. His writing has been featured on ESPN’s ‘SportsNation’, Sports Illustrated’s Hot Clicks, Guyspeed, and various other sites. You can follow him on Twitter at @Sweetbob