I went 7-7 against the spread last week. The late games on Sunday bailed me out or the week would have been a disaster.

We have had back-to-back weird weeks in the NFL. Hell, the Jets and Jaguars are playing pretty well right now, so that’s weird in itself.

We have five double-digit point spreads this week. The favorites have actually covered more double-digit spreads than they’ve failed this season.

Will the Bills rebound from last week’s close win over the Jaguars and cover against the Jets?

We pick every NFL game against the spread and throw out a few upsets in Week 10 of the 2021 NFL season.

Baltimore Ravens at Miami Dolphins (+7.5) – My pick is Baltimore Ravens

The Ravens are 6-2 outright and 3-5 against the spread this season. They are coming off a 34-31 overtime win over the Vikings. They are finally getting a running game going to help QB Lamar Jackson. A lot of their ground gains came from Jackson, but Devonta Freeman and Le’Veon Bell are finally in football shape. I expect a much better running game from them going forward. The Dolphins are 2-7 outright and 3-5-1 against the spread. They are coming off a 17-9 home win against the Texans. It was their first outright win since Week 1 and their first cover since Week 3. Dolphins QB Tua Tagovailoa broke his finger a week ago and was unable to play against the Texans. It’s currently unknown if Tua will start against the Ravens. If the Dolphins starts QB Jacoby Brissett on Thursday, this should be an easy cover for the Ravens. If Tua plays, the final score will be close to this spread. I’m taking the Ravens to cover on Thursday.

New Orleans Saints at Tennessee Titans (-3) – My pick is New Orleans Saints

The Saints are 5-3 outright and 4-4 against the spread. They are coming off a 27-25 home loss to the Falcons. The Saints had a big fourth quarter, but fell thanks to a last-second field goal from Falcons K Younghoe Koo. The Saints tried to run the ball early, but had the most success when they bailed on the run. Saints QB Trevor Siemian had a better-than-expected game from him. The Titans are 7-2 outright and against the spread this season. They are coming off a 28-16 road win against the Rams. The Titans defense really bailed them out as they forced Rams QB Matthew Stafford into some bad throws. The Titans will need their defense to show up against as their running game is a shell of itself without star RB Derrick Henry. This betting line is putting a lot of eggs in the ‘Titans win over the Rams’ basket. I believe the Titans are in trouble without Henry and will struggle on offense. I’m taking the points in this one.

Cleveland Browns at New England Patriots (-1.5) – My pick is Cleveland Browns

The Browns are 5-4 outright and against the spread. They are coming off a 41-16 road win against the Bengals. Cleveland was able to force turnovers and they took advantage of great field position. Browns QB Baker Mayfield is still limited due to his shoulder injury, but he was better than expected thanks to a big throw to WR Donovan Peoples-Jones. The Patriots are 5-4 outright and against the spread this season. They are coming off a 24-6 road win over the Panthers. It was a defensive battle and the Patriots were able to score on a pick-six and a touchdown pass to TE Hunter Henry to pull away. The Patriots are on a three-game winning streak, but I’m not sold on how they will fare against potential playoff teams. New England’s outright record is bloated with wins over the Jets (twice), Texans and Panthers. Even though the Browns will be without RB Nick Chubb (COVID-19), I still think they are the better team, so I’m taking the points.

Detroit Lions at Pittsburgh Steelers (-9) – My pick is Pittsburgh Steelers

The Lions are 0-8 outright and 4-4 against the spread this season. Detroit is coming off their bye week, and in their previous game, they lost 44-6 to the Eagles. Detroit were playing much better than their winless record up until the last of their game-winning field goal losses to the Vikings. That loss literally broke them and have been horrible in the following games. The Steelers are 5-3 outright and 3-5 against the spread this season. They are coming off a 29-27 home win over the Bears on Monday Night Football. The Steelers had control of the game until midway through the fourth quarter. They needed a final-minute field goal to get the win. Pittsburgh doesn’t have much firepower on offense with Big Ben under center. He will just need to be consistent and avoid turnovers to cover this spread. Pittsburgh’s defense should be able to step up and limit Detroit. I’m taking the Steelers to cover at home.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Indianapolis Colts (-10.5) – My pick is Indianapolis Colts

The Jaguars are 2-6 outright and 3-5 against the spread this season. They are coming off a 9-6 home loss to the Bills. They were 14.5 underdogs in that game and their defense stepped up for all four quarters. They were without RB James Robinson (heel), but he is expected to play this week. The Colts are 4-5 outright and 6-3 against the spread this season. They are coming off a 45-30 home win against the Jets. The game was more of a blowout than the final score would suggest. The Colts have been playing well across the board over the last 4 or 5 games. Some of their young players are developing into some real studs. RB Jonathan Taylor and WR Michael Pittman Jr. are turning heads in their second years. Indy has been able to win and cover against bad teams this year, but games against Jacksonville have historically been close over the last half-decade. Last week’s close game against Buffalo definitely lowered this point spread and created from value in the Colts. I’m taking Indianapolis to cover at home.

Atlanta Falcons at Dallas Cowboys (-10) – My pick is Atlanta Falcons

The Falcons are 4-4 outright and against the spread this season. They are coming off a 27-25 road win over the Saints. Atlanta controlled the game for the first three quarters and had to fight off a late charge from the Saints. The Falcons offense is basically RB/WR Cordarrelle Patterson at the moment. They will get the ball in his hands somehow. The Cowboys are 6-2 outright and 7-1 against the spread this season. They are coming off a 30-16 home loss to the Broncos. It was also their first loss against the spread this year. The Cowboys were without star LT Tyron Smith and they just struggle when he’s not in the game. Cowboys QB Dak Prescott didn’t connect on 50% of his passes and they bailed on the running game early. They will most likely win this game against the Falcons, but this point spread is bloated. I’m taking the points.

Buffalo Bills at New York Jets (+13) – My pick is Buffalo Bills

The Bills are 5-3 outright and 4-3-1 against the spread this season. They are coming off a near-disastrous 9-6 win in Jacksonville. Buffalo’s offense just wasn’t very good. The Jaguars rattled Bills QB Josh Allen and he tried to rely on quick, short passes the rest of the game. I honestly believe they were caught overlooking the Jaguars. The Jets are 2-6 outright and against the spread this season. They are coming off a 45-30 road loss to the Colts. QB Mike White started the game, but injured his forearm and was relieved by QB Josh Johnson. The third-string quarterback threw over 300 yards in the loss. A large chunk of those yards were when the Colts laid off the gas after going up 42-10 in the third quarter. It appears that Mike White will start on Sunday. He looked very good in the limited time he has played, but I believe the Bills will bounce-back from their poor performance against the Jags. I’m taking Buffalo to cover on the road.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Washington Football Team (+9.5) – My pick is Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The Bucs are 6-2 outright and 3-5 against the spread this season. They are coming off their bye week, and in their previous game, lost to the Saints 36-27. It was a good time for the Bucs to get a week off. They got off to a bad start against the Saints and couldn’t get back in the game. The Footballers are 2-6 outright and 1-7 against the spread this season. Washington is coming off their bye week, and in their previous game, lost to Denver 17-10. Injuries have been piling up in Washington for some time. Even after their bye week, Washington’s injury report is loaded. I feel like their biggest loss is DE Montez Sweat (jaw). WFT needs quarterback pressure for their secondary to hang with receivers like Mike Evans and Chris Godwin. This isn’t a great match-up for Washington. I’m taking the Bucs to cover on the road.

Carolina Panthers at Arizona Cardinals (-10) – My pick is Arizona Cardinals

The Panthers are 4-5 outright and against the spread this season. They are coming off an ugly 24-6 home loss to the Patriots. Carolina didn’t play good football across the board in the game. They’ve been struggling to score points of late. Their last adequate performance on offense came in their overtime loss to the Vikings nearly a month ago. The Cardinals are 8-1 outright and 7-2 against the spread this season. They are coming off a 31-17 road win over the Niners. They were without QB Kyler Murray (ankle), WR DeAndre Hopkins (hamstring) and A.J. Green (illness) in that game. Backup QB Colt McCoy was near-perfect in the game and he leaned heavily on RB James Conner. Murray is expected to return this week, Hopkins is currently listed as ‘day-to-day’ and I haven’t read anything new about Green. I hate, hate taking this many double-digit covers in the NFL, but the Panthers have no impressed me in a long time. I’m taking the Cardinals to cover at home.

Minnesota Vikings at Los Angeles Chargers (-2.5) – My pick is Los Angeles Chargers

The Vikings are 3-5 outright and 4-4 against the spread. They are coming off a 34-31 overtime road loss to the Ravens. Baltimore was able to run the ball and chew up the clock, so it was impressive that the Vikings were able to keep it close. It helped that they got a 98-yard kickoff return touchdown from rookie Kene Nwangwu. The Chargers are 5-3 outright and against the spread this season. They are coming off a 27-24 road win against the Eagles. Chargers QB Justin Herbert threw 356 yards and two touchdowns. His defense struggled to stop the Eagles running game. I like the playmakers they have on defense and should play better against the less-creative Vikings running game. The Chargers have won some close ones this year, something they couldn’t do last year. I think they will squeak out a cover at home.

Seattle Seahawks at Green Bay Packers (-3.5) – My pick is Green Bay Packers

The Seahawks are 3-5 outright and 5-2 against the spread. They are coming off their bye week, and in their previous game, they beat the Jaguars 31-7. The Seahawks survived without QB injured Russell Wilson (finger), but they have some ground to make up in the NFC Wild Card hunt. Wilson has been cleared and will need a lot help to get back into the race. The Packers are 7-2 outright and 8-1 against the spread this season. They are coming off a 13-7 road loss to the Chiefs. They were without star QB Aaron Rodgers (COVID-19) and the offense couldn’t do much against the Chiefs. Rodgers is eligible to come off the COVID list on Saturday and he said, barring an unknown in the physical, that he’s confident he will play on Sunday. Rodgers has had a lot of backlash since acknowledging that he’s unvaccinated and skirted some protocols. The guy is extremely competitive and he knows winning games heals a lot of issues. If he balls out, a lot of the COVID talk will go away. I’m taking the Packers to cover at home.

Philadelphia Eagles at Denver Broncos (-2.5) – My pick is Philadelphia Eagles

The Eagles are 3-6 outright and 4-5 against the spread this season. They are coming off a 27-24 home loss to the Chargers. I like what I saw from their offense as they were able to run the ball well against the Chargers. They got a decent average per touch from running backs Jordan Howard and Boston Scott. The Broncos are 5-4 outright and against the spread this season. They are coming off an impressive 30-16 road win over the Cowboys. Denver controlled the game from whistle to whistle. Broncos QB Teddy Bridgewater is proving that he is a serviceable starting NFL quarterback, especially when he has a running game backing him up. I worry in the long-term about Broncos defense. On paper, they’ve been very good, but trading away star LB Von Miller should be felt at some point soon. The Broncos are a tad overrated right now due to their win over the Cowboys. The Eagles will keep this one close, so I’m taking the points.

Kansas City Chiefs at Las Vegas Raiders (+2.5) – My pick is Kansas City Chiefs

The Chiefs are 5-4 outright and 2-7 against the spread. They are coming off a 13-7 win against the Aaron Rodgers-less Packers. Kansas City may have got the win, but they were far from impressive. Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes needs a confidence-boosting game to shake off whatever he’s dealing with right now. The Raiders are 5-3 outright and 4-4 against the spread this season. They are coming off a 23-16 road loss to the Giants. The Raiders have had a rough month and losing to the Giants shouldn’t have been much of a surprise. Raiders QB Derek Carr should have some solid numbers against the Chiefs this week, but I think he will make one or two costly mistakes in this one. The Chiefs should squeak out a cover on Sunday Night Football.

Los Angeles Rams at San Francisco 49ers (+4) – My pick is Los Angeles Rams

The Rams are 7-2 outright and 4-5 against the spread. They are coming off a surprising 28-16 home loss to the Titans. Rams QB Matthew Stafford had one of his worst games with his new team. At one point in this game, he threw a pick-six in his own end zone and followed that by throwing another interception on the next offensive play. The Niners are 3-5 outright and 2-6 against the spread. They are coming off a 31-17 loss to the Cardinals. The passing offense was better than recent games due to getting TE George Kittle back from injury. They bailed on the running game after falling behind 31-7 in the third quarter. The Niners defense has its issues and those problems mostly deal with its secondary. We knew it was going to be an issue going into the season and it’s worse than we thought it’d be. Stafford should have a better game against a below average pass defense. I’m taking the Rams to cover in San Francisco.

*These picks are for entertainment purposes

Sweetbob’s NFL picks against the spread record in previous seasons:
2013: 133-95-10
2014: 131-114-9
2015: 150-108-9
2016: 143-120-13
2017: 144-115-16
2018: 141-118-13
2019: 159-119-7
2020: 152-121-8
20210: 72-55-3

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About the Author…

Bobby Roberts (otherwise known as Sweetbob) is the creator of ‘America’s White Boy’ and contributor at Project Shanks. His writing has been featured on ESPN’s ‘SportsNation’, Sports Illustrated’s Hot Clicks, Guyspeed, and various other sites. You can follow him on Twitter at @Sweetbob