I went 6-9 against the spread last week. It was my first week under .500 this season. The late games really did a number on me.
The first week of Autumn weather always brings weird outcomes. Let’s hope last week’s strange games is a one-week occurrence.
There are some games with large point spreads on Thursday night and early Sunday, but the games tighten up during the late games.
Can Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes shake off his interceptions streak this week against the Packers?
We pick every NFL game against the spread and throw out a few upsets in Week 9 of the 2021 NFL season.
New York Jets at Indianapolis Colts (-10.5) – My pick is Indianapolis Colts
The Jets are 2-5 outright and against the spread this season. They are coming off one of the bigger upsets in recent memory. They beat the Bengals 34-31 with backup QB Mike White starting for injured QB Zach Wilson. White threw for 405 yards and three touchdowns. He was accurate and mounted a comeback in the fourth quarter that would make veteran quarterbacks jealous. The Colts are 3-5 outright and 5-3 against the spread. They are coming off a 34-31 overtime home loss to the Titans. The last two minutes of regulation gave me multiple heart attacks. I’ve come to the conclusion that Colts QB Carson Wentz will make roughly two plays a game that just leave you confused. Sometimes those plays work, but his late-game, opposite-hand, pass in his own end zone was just bonkers. The Jets may have themselves a capable backup quarterback in Mike White, but I’ve seen far too may one game wonders. The Colts defense has been pretty darn good in recent weeks with LB Darius Leonard back healthy. I think they will cover this spread on Thursday.
Denver Broncos at Dallas Cowboys (-10) – My pick is Denver Broncos
The Broncos are 4-4 outright and against the spread. They are coming off a 17-10 home win against Washington. Trade rumors swirled around the team in the recent days, but the only deal they were able to complete was sending LB Von Miller to the Rams. The Cowboys are 6-1 outright and a perfect 7-0 against the spread. They are coming off a 20-16 road win against the Vikings. Cowboys backup QB Cooper Rush had to start for Dak Prescott (calf), who is currently listed as probable for this week’s game. The Cowboys could be without LT Tyron Smith (ankle). The offense has grinded to a halt in the past when Smith isn’t in the game. Dallas will most likely win this game, but I still think the Broncos have some playmakers on defense to keep this one within double-digits, so I’m taking the points.
Las Vegas Raiders at New York Giants (+2.5) – My pick is Las Vegas Raiders
The Raiders are 5-2 outright and 4-3 against the spread. They are coming off their bye week, and in their previous game, they beat the Eagles 33-22. The team made headlines again this week when WR Henry Ruggs rear-ended someone at a high-rate of speed (while drunk) and someone in the other car is now dead. The Raiders released the once-promising wide receiver who is now facing a possibility of spending 20 years behind bars. The Raiders have their own issues on the field with TE Darren Waller (ankle) and RB Josh Jacobs (chest) dealing with injuries that may keep them out of this game or limit them. The Giants are 2-6 outright and 4-4 against the spread. They are coming off a 20-17 road loss to the Chiefs. They have been short-handed in recent weeks due to the laundry list of injuries they’re dealing with on offense. Every Giants wide receiver of note is dealing with some sort of ailment. This could be an ugly game, but the Raiders are the more talented team and I’m taking them to cover.
Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints (-6) – My pick is New Orleans Saints
The Falcons are 3-4 outright and against the spread this season. They are coming off a 19-13 home loss to the Panthers. The Falcons lack a home run hitter without WR Calvin Ridley (personal issues). I didn’t like how they played last week. If they faced a playoff-level team, they would have been embarrassed. The Saints are 5-2 outright and 4-3 against the spread. They are coming off a 36-27 home win over the Buccaneers. Saints QB Jameis Winston tore his ACL in the game third-string QB Trevor Siemian led them to the win. If backup QB Taysom Hill (concussion) is cleared, he is expected to start against the Falcons. The Saints were a better team with someone under center that could pass the ball, or at least aren’t afraid to let pass the ball fearing interceptions. I’m taking the Saints to cover at home.
Buffalo Bills at Jacksonville Jaguars (+14.5) – My pick is Buffalo Bills
The Bills are 5-2 outright and 4-2-1 against the spread this season. They are coming off a 26-11 home win against the Dolphins. They’ve been able to play at a high level and haven’t dealt with many lingering injuries this season. The Jaguars are 1-6 outright and 2-5 against the spread. They are coming off a 31-7 road loss to the Seahawks. I was expecting a better outcome since the Jags were coming off their bye week. Seattle continued drives and Jacksonville only had one red zone trip all game. The Bills are the exact team the Jaguars don’t need to face right now. This game could get ugly early in the game. The extra half-point is a little scary, but the Bills should clear this spread.
New England Patriots at Carolina Panthers (+4) – My pick is New England Patriots
The Patriots are 4-4 outright and against the spread. They are coming off a 27-24 road win against the Chargers. The Patriots leaned heavily on their special teams and defense to get the win. New England ran the ball and cut the game down. The Panthers are also 4-4 outright and against the spread this season. They are coming off a 19-13 road win against the Falcons. Panthers QB Sam Darnold was knocked out with a concussion late in the game. His status is up in the air and they could turn to backup QB P.J. Walker, who has been awful in relief. The Panthers do have some good news as they could get star RB Christian McCaffrey for this game. The uncertainty at quarterback is making me way to scared to take the points here. If the Patriots use last week’s gameplan, I think they should cover this game on the road.
Minnesota Vikings at Baltimore Ravens (-5.5) – My pick is Baltimore Ravens
The Vikings are 3-4 outright and against the spread this season. They are coming off a 20-16 home loss to the Cowboys. The Vikings just couldn’t do much once they crossed the 50-yard line. Too many promising drives ended with a field goal. The Ravens are 5-2 outright and 3-4 against the spread. They are coming off their bye, and in their previous game, they lost to the Bengals 41-17. That loss is now even more surprising now that the Jets beat the Bengals the following week. The Vikings have played a rather generic slate of opponents this season. I’m not sold that they are a potential playoff team. They have looked below-average over their last four outings. I’m taking the rested Ravens to cover at home.
Cleveland Browns at Cincinnati Bengals (-2.5) – My pick is Cincinnati Bengals
The Browns are 4-4 outright and against the spread. They are coming off a 15-10 home loss to the Steelers. Browns QB Baker Mayfield is dealing with a non-throwing shoulder injury that has clearly limited him over the last few games. The Bengals are 5-3 outright and 4-4 against the spread. They are coming off a 34-31 road loss to the Jets. The Bengals started the game off great, but the Jets scored a touchdown before halftime and just seemed to have the momentum the rest of the game. The Bengals couldn’t run the ball at all and I’m not sure RB Joe Mixon is 100% healthy. Cincinnati will come into this game extremely motivated to wipe last week’s loss clean from their minds. The Browns are short-handed at just about every position due to injuries. I’m taking the Bengals to cover at home.
Houston Texans at Miami Dolphins (-6.5) – My pick is Houston Texans
The Texans are 1-7 outright and 4-4 against the spread. They are coming off a 38-22 home loss to the Rams. The game was much more lopsided than the final scores suggest as the Texans scored all 22 points in fourth quarter garbage time. The Dolphins are 1-7 outright and 2-5-1 against the spread. They are coming off a 26-11 road loss to the Bills. The game was close until the final minutes of the game. Both teams were unremarkable on offense for most of the game. The Texans’ offense wouldn’t be bad if they could count on their backfield to move the ball a little more. The Texans and Dolphins are both very flawed teams. I don’t think the Dolphins are that much better than the Texans. I’m taking the points.
Los Angeles Chargers at Philadelphia Eagles (+1) – My pick is Los Angeles Chargers
The Chargers are 4-3 outright and against the spread this season. They are coming off a 27-24 home loss to the Patriots. The Chargers offense just couldn’t get going against the Pats defense. New England would then drain the clock with their backfield. The Eagles are 3-5 outright and 4-4 against the spread. They are coming off a 44-6 blowout road win against the Lions. They just ran the ball down their throats all game. I don’t see the same gameplan working against the Chargers. The Eagles will need to take more risks and a vanilla gameplan will get them nowhere. The Chargers will bounce-back this week and be able to throw the ball against the Eagles. I’m taking the Chargers to cover on the road.
Green Bay Packers at Kansas City Chiefs (-7.5) – My pick is Green Bay Packers
The Packers are 7-1 outright and against the spread this season. They are coming off an impressive 24-21 road win against the Cardinals. They had to play that game without their best three wide receivers. The Packers are on one hell of streak since getting blown-out in their opener. The Chiefs are 4-4 outright and 2-6 against the spread. They are coming off a 20-17 home win against the Giants. It was a sloppy win that saw QB Patrick Mahomes continue his streak of throwing interceptions. The Chiefs defense have allowed some big passing plays this season and I expect the Packers will have a few successes. Packers QB Aaron Rodgers tested positive for COVID-19, so backup QB Jordan Love with get the start. Green Bay is playing so damn well right now and the Chiefs are having issues on both sides of the ball. I think the Packers will shock a lot of people in this one, so I’m taking the Packers.
Arizona Cardinals at San Francisco 49ers (pk) – My pick is Arizona Cardinals
The Cardinals are 7-1 outright and 6-2 against the spread. They are coming off a 24-21 home loss to the Packers on Thursday. Arizona could be without QB Kyler Murray in this game as he sprained his ankle in the final play of the game. They are listing him as day-to-day and Arizona has a long-term interest in him, so they might take the cautious step and start veteran QB Colt McCoy. The Niners are 3-4 outright and 2-5 against the spread this season. They are coming off a 33-22 road win against the Bears. They have their own list of injuries they’re dealing with right now. The 49ers backfield seems to have a different rotation of guys every game and they could be without WR Deebo Samuel (calf) this week. I think the Cardinals are still the better team, with or without Murray. I’m taking Arizona in this one.
Tennessee Titans at Los Angeles Rams (-7.5) – My pick is Los Angeles Rams
The Titans are 6-2 outright and against the spread. They are coming off a 34-31 road overtime win against the Colts. The biggest news story from that game was that Titans RB Derrick Henry had a Jones fracture in his foot and needed season-ending surgery. They signed veteran Adrian Peterson this week to help fill the huge crater Henry left in their offense. The Rams are 7-1 outright and 4-4 against the spread. They are coming off a 38-22 road win against the Texans. The game was way more lopsided than the final score. The Titans should be a playoff team and it may just take a couple weeks to figure out their offense without Henry. I’m taking the Rams to cover at home.
Chicago Bears at Pittsburgh Steelers (-6.5) – My pick is Chicago Bears
The Bears are 3-5 outright and against the spread. The Bears are coming off a 33-22 home loss to the Niners. Chicago had the lead late in the game, but they allowed 18 points in the fourth quarter. Bears rookie QB Justin Fields had his best game as a pro. He had 175 passing yards, and another 103 on the ground, with two combined touchdowns. The Steelers are 4-3 outright and 3-4 against the spread this season. They are coming off a sloppy 15-10 road win against the Browns. Both starting quarterbacks shouldn’t have been playing as they were hobbling around all game. This game could be a coming out game for Fields. The Steelers are barely inching out victories on a good day. I don’t see them covering a touchdown spread on Monday Night Football, so I’m taking the points.
*These picks are for entertainment purposes
Sweetbob’s NFL picks against the spread record in previous seasons:
2013: 133-95-10
2014: 131-114-9
2015: 150-108-9
2016: 143-120-13
2017: 144-115-16
2018: 141-118-13
2019: 159-119-7
2020: 152-121-8
20210: 71-48-3
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About the Author…
Bobby Roberts (otherwise known as Sweetbob) is the creator of ‘America’s White Boy’ and contributor at Project Shanks. His writing has been featured on ESPN’s ‘SportsNation’, Sports Illustrated’s Hot Clicks, Guyspeed, and various other sites. You can follow him on Twitter at @Sweetbob