I went 9-6-1 against the spread in Week 5.

The bye weeks have started and we will only have fourteen games on the schedule. It feels like a fuller slate of games since we have a London game and an important game on Monday Night Football.

We saw a few potential season-shifting injuries last week. Seahawks QB Russell Wilson injured a finger on his throwing hand and will be out until December. The Giants also have injury concerns with QB Daniel Jones, who is currently sitting in concussion-protocol.

Can the Steelers cover against the Geno Smith-led Seattle Seahawks on Sunday Night Football?

We pick every NFL game against the spread and throw out a few upsets in Week 6 of the 2021 NFL season.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Philadelphia Eagles (+7) – My pick is Philadelphia Eagles

The Bucs are 4-1 outright and 2-3 against the spread this season. They are coming off a 45-17 home win over the Miami Dolphins. Bucs QB Tom Brady threw for 411 yards and five touchdowns in the win. It looks like they could be without TE Rob Gronkowski again, but there’s an outside shot he could still suit up. The Eagles are 2-3 outright and against the spread. They are coming off a 21-18 road win over the Panthers. Eagles QB Jalen Hurts ran the ball in for a touchdown late to secure the win. Philly probably won’t be able to run traditionally against the Bucs. Their front-seven is great against the run, so Hurts will need to complete short passes and run himself to keep the defense honest. Philly’s defense is underrated and I think they will keep this one tight. The Bucs will most likely win, but I think the Eagles keep this within a touchdown.

Miami Dolphins at Jacksonville Jaguars (+3.5) – My pick is Jacksonville Jaguars

This game is being played at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium in London, England. The Dolphins are 1-4 outright and 2-3 against the spread. They’ve been without QB Tua Tagovailoa for the last three games. It appears that Tua will come off injured-reserve this week and be able to participate at practice. If all goes well this week, he could start this game against Jacksonville. The Jaguars are 0-5 outright and 1-4 against the spread. They are coming off a 37-19 home loss against the Titans. Jacksonville was able to run the ball well with RB James Robinson and I love the addition of TE Dan Arnold. The more pieces QB Trevor Lawrence has, the more they will get out of him as a rookie. Weird stuff happens in London games. I know last week’s game was pretty tame, but they’ve been traditionally odd. The Jaguars are used to playing overseas every season. I expect we will see one of the better games from Lawrence on Sunday morning. It’s up to their defense to step up. I’m taking the points in this one.

Minnesota Vikings at Carolina Panthers (-1.5) – My pick is Minnesota Vikings

The Vikings are 2-3 outright and against the spread. They are coming off a 19-17 home win against the Lions. Minnesota won the game with a last-second field goal from Greg Joseph. The Vikings offense hasn’t been great since RB Dalvin Cook went down with an ankle injury. The passing game has even taken a hit. The Panthers are 3-2 outright and against the spread. They are coming off a 21-18 home loss to the Eagles. They were without RB Christian McCaffrey again, which led to QB Sam Darnold trying to do too much. He threw a couple late picks that sealed the loss. Carolina is hopeful that McCaffrey will play this week, but they said the exact same phrase last week at this time. It wouldn’t surprise me if he sits out another game. They’ve historically been cautious with him. The Panthers are a little overrated right now. They surprised everyone by winning their first three games, but they aren’t the same team as they’ve suffered a handful of injuries to playmakers. I’m taking the Vikings to cover on the road.

Green Bay Packers at Chicago Bears (+4.5) – My pick is Green Bay Packers

The Packers are 4-1 outright and against the spread. They are coming off a 25-22 overtime road win against the Bengals. That game should probably go down as a tie since both teams had multiple opportunities to win it with field goals, but many were missed. The Packers miss the stellar play from injured CB Jaire Alexander. The Bears are 3-2 outright and against the spread. They are coming off a 20-9 road win against the Raiders. Rookie QB Justin Fields currently has a bare bones playbook. The offense will run through the backfield for awhile. He handed the ball to running backs Khalil Herbert and Damien Williams 34 times last week. If the Bears fall behind by more than a touchdown, they don’t have the offense to mount a comeback in a hurry. The Packers have had a lot of recent success against the Bears. They’ve covered in their last four meetings. I’m betting on another cover by Green Bay.

Houston Texans at Indianapolis Colts (-9.5) – My pick is Houston Texans

The Colts are 1-4 outright and 3-2 against the spread. They are coming off a soul-crushing 31-25 road overtime loss to the Ravens. They had a double-digit point lead for a large chunk of this game, but they allowed Ravens QB Lamar Jackson to dominate in the second-half and overtime. It didn’t help that the Colts lost a few guys in their secondary to injury in that game. The Texans are 1-4 outright and 3-2 against the spread. They are coming off a 25-22 home loss to the Patriots. The Texans had the lead in this game until Pats QB Mac Jones hit TE Hunter Henry to tie it up in the fourth. A few minutes later, Pats kicker Nick Folk hit the game-winning field goal. Rookie Texans QB Davis Mills had the best game of his career. He threw for 312 yards and three touchdowns. Houston will need to throw against the Colts if they hope to keep this one close. I worry about the Colts secondary, as they are coming into this game banged up. I’m going to take the points in this one.

Los Angeles Rams at New York Giants (+10.5) – My pick is Los Angeles Rams

The Rams are 4-1 outright and 3-2 against the spread. They are coming off a 26-17 road win against the Seahawks. They knocked Seahawks QB Russell Wilson out of the game with a finger injury. It was close for awhile with backup QB Geno Smith in the game, but the Rams were able to turn up the pressure and extend their lead. The Giants are 1-4 outright and 2-3 against the spread. They are coming off a 44-20 road loss against the Cowboys. They lost QB Daniel Jones (concussion), RB Saquon Barkley (ankle) and WR Kadarius Toney (foot/ejection) in that game. Backup QB Mike Glennon actually played better than Jones in the game, but he came into the game when it was out-of-reach. Barkley is expected to miss a few games with an ankle sprain, but Jones and Toney are currently listed as questionable. The Rams defense should be able to chew up the Giants backups on Sunday. I’m taking the Rams to cover on the road.

Kansas City Chiefs at Washington Football Team (+7.5) – My pick is Washington Football Team

The Chiefs are 2-3 outright and 1-4 against the spread. They are coming off an eye-opening 38-20 home loss to the Bills. The Chiefs secondary tends to make a few bonehead plays per game and the Bills did the most they could in those moments. The Footballers are 2-3 outright and 1-4 against the spread. Washington is coming off a 33-22 home loss to the Saints. The game was much closer than the final score would suggest. The Saints had a strong fourth quarter to extend their lead. WFT QB Taylor Heinicke did not have a good outing as he threw two picks with no passing touchdowns. The Chiefs will be without RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire for a few games after he injured his knee last week. Kansas City is usually a little overrated every week due to them being a public team. It is happening again this week as they are a point or two overvalued. Washington should be able to run the ball on the Chiefs and keep this one close, so I’m taking the points.

Cincinnati Bengals at Detroit Lions (+3) – My pick is Detroit Lions

The Bengals are 3-2 outright and 2-3 against the spread. They are coming off a 25-22 home overtime loss to the Packers. It was a rough week for kickers overall, but that game was embarrassing for the position. Bengals QB Joe Burrow had to go to the hospital after the game with swelling in his neck/throat, but he was released soon after. The Lions are 0-5 outright and 3-2 against the spread. They lost another heartbreaker when the Vikings kicker hit a game-winning field goal. Detroit head coach Dan Campbell even teared up during the post-game press conference when talking about the loss. I’ve been taking a lot of home underdogs this week. I think it’s going to happen again. The Lions are better than their winless record would make you assume. Bengals RB Joe Mixon didn’t look great in his return from injury. If they can’t get much from him in this one, this is a winnable game for the Lions, so I’m taking the points.

Los Angeles Chargers at Baltimore Ravens (-3) – My pick is Los Angeles Chargers

The Chargers are 4-1 outright and against the spread. They are coming off a 47-42 home win against the Browns. Chargers QB Justin Herbert had a fantastic game and he hasn’t thrown an interception in his last three games. They are being overlooked right now. The Ravens are 4-1 outright and 2-3 against the spread. They are coming off a comeback 31-25 overtime win at home against the Colts. Ravens QB Lamar Jackson played the best half of football of his career in the second-half of that game. This game will be a true test for the Ravens defense. They will need to play a complete game if they hope to cover against the Chargers. I love Herbert right now and think he is good enough to cover on the road in Baltimore.

Arizona Cardinals at Cleveland Browns (-2.5) – My pick is Arizona Cardinals

The Cardinals are 5-0 outright and 2-1 against the spread. They are coming off a 17-10 home win over the Niners. The Cardinals offense had their worst performance of the season, but the Niners defense is amongst the best. I would love for them to think of more creative ways to get the ball in the hand of rookie WR Rondale Moore. The Browns are 3-2 outright and against the spread. They are coming off a 47-42 road loss to the Chargers. Cleveland had their biggest offensive game of the year, but it was back-loaded with a huge amount of yards gained in the fourth quarter. Browns QB Baker Mayfield is dealing an injury in his non-throwing shoulder, but that didn’t appear to bother him. He had a ton of success spamming the ball to TE David Njoku. The Cardinals defense will pressure Mayfield on Sunday. I assume the Browns will try to run the ball a lot against the Cardinals, but they can’t be one-dimensional and expect to win and cover. I think the Cardinals will keep this one tight, so I’m taking the points.

Dallas Cowboys at New England Patriots (+4) – My pick is Dallas Cowboys

The Cowboys are 4-1 outright and 5-0 against the spread. They are coming off a 44-20 blowout home win against the Giants. They knocked out multiple key players on the Giants offense to help their cause as well. Dallas has one of the best running games in the country and use both Ezekiel Elliott and Tony Pollard with huge success. The Patriots are 2-3 outright and against the spread this season. They need a strong fourth quarter to get the 25-22 road win against the Texans. The Patriots secondary is a huge question mark going forward. Texans rookie QB Davis Mills had the best game of his career in that game. The Cowboys are undefeated against the spread this season, but I still feel like they are a little underrated in this one. I would still put money on Dallas if this was -6.5, so I’m taking the Cowboys to cover on the road.

Las Vegas Raiders at Denver Broncos (-4) – My pick is Las Vegas Raiders

The Raiders are 3-2 outright and 2-3 against the spread. They are coming off a sloppy 20-9 home loss to the Bears. Head coach Jon Gruden resigned the following day after decade-old emails were leaked showing that he used homophobic and other troubling language. Special teams coordinator Rich Bisaccia will take over as interim head coach. The Broncos are 3-2 outright and against the spread. They are coming off a 27-19 road loss to the Steelers. Broncos QB Teddy Bridgewater got off to a rough start, but played much better in the fourth quarter. The Broncos are another team that are now overvalued due to their strong start to the year. They haven’t looked good the last two weeks, but people remember missing out on their first few games. I think the Raiders will bounce-back from a rough week and keep this one within a field goal, so I’m taking the points.

Seattle Seahawks at Pittsburgh Steelers (-4.5) – My pick is Pittsburgh Steelers

The Seahawks are 2-3 outright and against the spread. They are coming off a 26-17 home loss to the Rams. Seahawks QB Russell Wilson injured a finger on his throwing hand in the game and is expected to miss four-to-six weeks. Backup QB Geno Smith will be starting against the Steelers. The Steelers are 2-3 outright and against the spread. They are coming off a 27-19 home win against the Broncos. They lost WR JuJu Smith-Schuster for the season after taking a hit to his shoulder last week. Their offense has been a struggle this season, so losing him will sting. The Seahawks will be without Wilson and it looks like they could also be without RB Chris Carson again. If Seattle had a stronger running game, Smith starting wouldn’t be a huge issue. The Seahawks will need to rely too much on Smith in this game. I think the Steelers will score enough to cover on Sunday Night Football.

Buffalo Bills at Tennessee Titans (+5.5) – My pick is Buffalo Bills

The Bills are 4-1 outright and against the spread. They are coming off a 38-20 road win against the Chiefs. Buffalo has been the most impressive team this season. They should be undefeated, but they had a complete collapse in the fourth quarter in their opening game against the Steelers. The Titans are 3-2 outright and against the spread this season. They are coming off a 37-19 road win against the Jaguars. They’ve been great this year when they’re able to freely run the ball. They do get caught up in running the ball with RB Derrick Henry, even when he’s averaging less than three yards per attempt in a drive. I believe they think he’s on the cusp of breaking a big run, so they have ended a lot of drives with a failed running play on third down. The Titans will need to throw in this game if they wish to stay in this game. I think the final score will be similar to when the Cardinals beat the Titans back in Week 1 (38-13). That is how much I love the Bills right now.

*These picks are for entertainment purposes

Sweetbob’s NFL picks against the spread record in previous seasons:
2013: 133-95-10
2014: 131-114-9
2015: 150-108-9
2016: 143-120-13
2017: 144-115-16
2018: 141-118-13
2019: 159-119-7
2020: 152-121-8
20210: 48-29-3

Follow us on Twitter @Sweetbob & ‘LIKE’ us on Facebook!

About the Author…

Bobby Roberts (otherwise known as Sweetbob) is the creator of ‘America’s White Boy’ and contributor at Project Shanks. His writing has been featured on ESPN’s ‘SportsNation’, Sports Illustrated’s Hot Clicks, Guyspeed, and various other sites. You can follow him on Twitter at @Sweetbob