These are the most-competitive NFL Conference Championship games in a long, long time.
Even though both point spreads are just a field goal, they will be very different games. The Bucs vs Packers game will pit two Super Bowl-winning, veteran quarterbacks against each other. The Bills vs Chiefs game have two young quarterbacks that could meet each other in the postseason many times this decade.
Will Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes recover from last week’s concussion and play against the Bills?
Can Bucs QB Tom Brady cover against the Packers and earn another Super Bowl appearance?
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Green Bay Packers (-3) – over/under (51) – My pick is Green Bay Packers and OVER
The last time these teams faced each other, the Bucs beat the Packers 38-10 back in October. Green Bay actually got out to a 10-0 lead, but then QB Aaron Rodgers threw a couple picks in-a-row and things got out of hand in a hurry. Actually, that loss ended a mid-season skid and they’ve been near-automatic every since. A lot of that is due to the Packers offense taking off from that point forward. The Bucs avenged a regular season loss the Saints and knocked them out of the postseason last week. Tampa Bay didn’t wow anyone in that game and if the Saints put in either of their backup quarterbacks, New Orleans could have won that game. Bucs QB Tom Brady has a crazy record in conference championship games. He shows up in big games, but I think the Bucs defense could be an issue. They rely so much on trying to force turnovers and they take a lot of risks. If Rodgers can avoid a few jumped routes, he could have some open receivers down-field. I think the Packers will cover and the game points will be over 51 points.
Buffalo Bills at Kansas City Chiefs (-3) – over/under (54) – My pick is Buffalo Bills and UNDER
The Chiefs beat the Bills 22-17 earlier this season. Bills QB Josh Allen was dealing with a shoulder injury in that game and was largely ineffective passing in the game. It should be a different type of game this time around. Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes suffered a concussion last week and is currently listed as questionable. He has been limited at practice and is still in concussion-protocol. If I were a betting man (and I am), he will play in this game. The Chiefs could also get WR Sammy Watkins and RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire back. They have been limited at practice and are listed as questionable. The Bills might be the hottest team in the NFL. They are 12-6 against the spread this year and nearly all of their point spread losses came early in the year. The Bills will keep this game close and their defense will limit Mahomes. The Chiefs could win this game outright, but the Bills are a tough out. Also, 54 points is a rather high point total. I have a little more faith in the Bills defense and I’m taking the under.
*These picks are for entertainment purposes
Sweetbob’s NFL picks against the spread record in previous seasons:
2013: 133-95-10
2014: 131-114-9
2015: 150-108-9
2016: 143-120-13
2017: 144-115-16
2018: 141-118-13
2019: 159-119-7
2020: 150-117-8
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About the Author…
Bobby Roberts (otherwise known as Sweetbob) is the creator of ‘America’s White Boy’ and contributor at Project Shanks. His writing has been featured on ESPN’s ‘SportsNation’, Sports Illustrated’s Hot Clicks, Guyspeed, and various other sites. You can follow him on Twitter at @Sweetbob