I went 6-5-1 against the spread and with over/under point totals last week.
We are back to a four-game playoff schedule this week. It’s unfortunate that we won’t have an extra game on Nickelodeon this week. I really enjoyed their presentation of the Bears/Saints game on Sunday.
The Packers and Chiefs will be fresh this week since they benefitted from the revised playoff schedule this season. They were the only two teams in the NFL that had a first-round bye this year.
There is a lot of experience at quarterback in this year’s divisional round, but we do have some young quarterbacks like Baker Mayfield, Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen, who were still playing in college just a couple years ago.
Can Drew Brees cover against Tom Brady this week?
Los Angeles Rams at Green Bay Packers (-6.5) – over/under (45.5) – My pick is Green Bay Packers and UNDER
The Packers are one of the hottest teams in the NFL. They are playing their best football right now, even after some injuries on their offensive line. Many thought they would be average on defense this year, but they improved as the season ended. The Rams won a tough Wild Card game over the Seahawks last week. QB Jared Goff didn’t start due to thumb surgery, but he had to come into the game after QB John Wolford injured his neck on a questionable cheap shot. It’s still unknown how well Goff can throw after just two weeks pot-surgery. It wouldn’t be smart to start Wolford with his neck still banged up. The Rams defense is loaded with studs, but they are vulnerable when their offense struggles and leaves them to defend bad field position. The Packers will cover in this one thanks to their running game and the point total will be a few points shy, so I’ll be taking the under.
Baltimore Ravens at Buffalo Bills (-2.5) – over/under (50) – My pick is Baltimore Ravens and OVER
The Bills have been a great betting team this year, but if you look at their schedule as a whole, it was one of the weakest schedules of any playoff team this season. They struggled when they played the Titans, Chiefs and Cardinals this year. They also didn’t play great last week against the Colts, but still held on to win by a field goal. The Ravens have also been a great betting team this year. They didn’t start out that way, but they’ve covered seven-straight games heading into this one. The reason I’m taking the Ravens in this game is because the Ravens ground game will be too much for the Bills to handle. Buffalo defense is fast, but they were schooled by good running backs and athletic quarterbacks a few times this year. Both offenses will be able to put up points and I think this game will hit the over as well.
Cleveland Browns at Kansas City Chiefs (-10.5) – over/under (57) – My pick is Cleveland Browns and UNDER
The Chiefs have been awful against the spread this year. They’ve only covered one game since early-November. It’s pretty common for good teams to have their point spreads ‘bet up’ just because the Chiefs are a very public team. This game is the perfect storm to be bet up just because no one has much faith that the Browns will be able to hang against the Chiefs. They are coming off a win against an underwhelming Steelers team. The Chiefs will win this game, but I don’t see them finishing this game with a double-digit win. I also believe the over/under of 57 points is bloated, so I’m taking the under.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New Orleans Saints (-3) – over/under (52) – My pick is New Orleans Saints and UNDER
This will be the third time these teams meet this season. The Saints won both previous meetings outright and against the spread. It’s so damn hard to do that for a third time…but I think it will happen. I know it’s hard to bet against Bucs QB Tom Brady in the postseason, but the Saints looked great in their last meeting. The Bucs were never in that game. I also think the Saints will limit the Bucs on the scoreboard, so I’ll be taking the under as well.
*These picks are for entertainment purposes
Sweetbob’s NFL picks against the spread record in previous seasons:
2013: 133-95-10
2014: 131-114-9
2015: 150-108-9
2016: 143-120-13
2017: 144-115-16
2018: 141-118-13
2019: 159-119-7
2020: 147-113-7
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About the Author…
Bobby Roberts (otherwise known as Sweetbob) is the creator of ‘America’s White Boy’ and contributor at Project Shanks. His writing has been featured on ESPN’s ‘SportsNation’, Sports Illustrated’s Hot Clicks, Guyspeed, and various other sites. You can follow him on Twitter at @Sweetbob