I went 11-5 against the spread last week.

I was actually 8-1 against the spread at one point, but the late games on Sunday afternoon/evening made the record a little less remarkable. I’m still happy with the overall outcome. I also benefitted from the late safety in the Ravens/Browns game.

There are a handful of double-digit point spreads this week. We have been able to avoid a lot of those this year, but December is always filled with some lopsided point spreads, so it is expected at this point.

Can the Dolphins cover the spread at home against the Patriots?

We pick every NFL game against the spread and throw out a few upsets in Week 15 of the 2020 NFL season.

Los Angeles Chargers at Las Vegas Raiders (-3.5) – My pick is Los Angeles Chargers

I haven’t been sold on either of these teams this season, especially the last month. The Chargers are coming off their first close win in a long time. They needed a big second-half against the Falcons, but they got over the ‘close game’ hump. The Raiders have looked awful the last month with their only win coming in the final seconds on a fluke hail mary against the Jets. Their defense has been awful lately. This will most likely be a close game, but that extra half-point is too enticing for me. I am taking the points in this one. I just have little faith in the Raiders defense on a short week.

Buffalo Bills at Denver Broncos (+6) – My pick is Buffalo Bills

The Bills have bounced back strong after their midseason lull. They’ve covered five-straight games and only one of those games was close to the spread. Their defense is playing better and QB Josh Allen is limiting turnovers. The Broncos have been good against the spread since getting QB Drew Lock back from injury. They’ve covered three of their last four games and QB Drew Lock had one of his best games as a pro last week against the Panthers. The only way I see that the Broncos could make this game close is if they could get their running game going. I know they had success on the ground against the Chiefs two weeks ago and kept it within a touchdown. I don’t see that happening this week against a tough Bill front-seven. I’m taking Buffalo to cover in Denver.

Carolina Panthers at Green Bay Packers (-8.5) – My pick is Green Bay Packers

The Panthers are only 4-9 outright, but they are over .500 against the spread (7-6). They’ve been able to keep games close against good teams and have only lost by double-digits twice in their last ten games. The issue here is that they just allowed Broncos QB Drew Lock to throw at-will against them. The Packers are much more talented on offense and I think the Panthers will have the same issues they had a few weeks ago when the Bucs blew them out. I’m taking the Packers to cover at home.

Chicago Bears at Minnesota Vikings (-3.5) – My pick is Chicago Bears

The Bears are coming off their most impressive win of the season. They traveled to Houston and beat the Texans 36-7. Chicago’s offense has been playing better since QB Mitchell Trubisky regained the starting job. Also, RB David Montgomery has been great since the change at quarterback (and play caller). The Vikings have been struggling against some rather mediocre talent in recent weeks. They failed to cover against Jacksonville, Carolina and Dallas before getting beaten 26-14 by the Bucs last week. The Vikings have done well against the NFC North this season, but I don’t like how they’ve been playing lately, so I’m taking the points.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Atlanta Falcons (+6) – My pick is Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The Falcons had one of the worst pass defenses in the NFL early this season. They still rank 30th in the NFL in that category, but they have been so much better since canning their head coach two months ago. I still think a team with a strong passing attack can carve them up though. I think the Bucs just have too many receiving weapons and will cause the Falcons a lot of trouble. The Bucs will miss RB Ronald Jones due to a thumb injury and he also landed on the COVID-19 reserve list. I have to take the Bucs to cover here.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Baltimore Ravens (-13) – My pick is Baltimore Ravens

The Jaguars are going back to QB Gardner Minshew III this week. They’ve lost 12-games straight outright, but they’ve been much better against the spread (6-7 ATS). They are 4-2 ATS in their last six games. The public must believe they are purposely tanking, so they’ve been skittish about laying any money on them. I haven’t been afraid, but I’m staying away from the Jags this week. They have been horrible against the run and they are facing one of the best running teams in the entire league. This one could get ugly. I’m taking the Ravens to cover at home.

New England Patriots at Miami Dolphins (-1) – My pick is Miami Dolphins

The Dolphins have been outstanding against the spread this year (10-3 ATS), and I still think they are undervalued in this game. The Patriots are living off their past reputation. They’ve been an average team outright and against the spread (6-7 ATS). The Dolphins defense is vastly underrated and have been great at forcing turnovers and stopping drives short of the end zone. They should be able to cover this one at home.

Detroit Lions at Tennessee Titans (-10.5) – My pick is Tennessee Titans

It appears that the Lions will be without QB Matthew Stafford in this game due to a rib injury. Chase Daniel is a capable backup, but they would need a strong outing from their running game, which has been missing for a few weeks. The Titans defense should be able to get pressure on Daniel, and on offense, the Titans should be able to ride RB Derrick Henry for most of the game. I’m taking the Titans to cover at home.

Houston Texans at Indianapolis Colts (-7) – My pick is Indianapolis Colts

It was just two weeks ago when the Colts beat the Texans 26-20 in Houston. The Texans are coming off an embarrassing 36-7 loss against the Bears. Their defense just fell apart and they didn’t have any help on offense. The Colts have been able to beat and cover against the bottom-half of the league. They’ve only struggled to cover against some of the better teams in the NFL. The Texans are far from that and I think the Colts will make the Texans defense look back to a second week-in-a-row. I’m taking the Colts to cover at home.

San Francisco 49ers at Dallas Cowboys  (+3) – My pick is Dallas Cowboys

The Cowboys were the worst team against the spread going into November. They’ve been able to cover three of their last five games thanks to a little more consistency on both sides of the ball. They are still awful against the run, but it doesn’t look like the Niners will be getting back RB Raheem Mostert this game. He hasn’t been able to practice this week, so I would be surprised if he suited up. This could be close, but I’m going to take the points in this game.

Seattle Seahawks at Washington Football Team (+5.5) – My pick is Seattle Seahawks

Washington has been on one hell of a streak since promoting QB Alex Smith as the starter. Unfortunately, it appears that he could miss this game thanks to a calf injury that occurred last week in their win over the Niners. They may also be without RB Antonio Gibson, so the Footballers offense will be limited without those two stars. The Seahawks had a ‘week off’ last week, aka they played the Jets. The Seahawks should be able to cover against Washington if Smith and Gibson both miss this game.

Philadelphia Eagles at Arizona Cardinals (-6.5) – My pick is Arizona Cardinals

The Eagles are going with QB Jalen Hurts again this week. He won his debut as the starter last week with a 24-21 win over the Saints. The Eagles were able to run the ball with RB Miles Sanders and Hurts both rushing for over 100 yards each. Sanders broke one 80+ yard run, so he was below average with the rest of his carries. The Cardinals defense will be prepared for Hurts since they face a speedy quarterback at practice. They are best-suited to face Hurts and will most likely stack the box a little more than the Saints did last week. I’m taking the Cardinals to cover at home.

New York Jets at Los Angeles Rams (-17) – My pick is Los Angeles Rams

The Rams have the best defense in the NFL and they will be facing the league’s worst offense this week. The Jets just can’t move the ball right now and they were only able to manage a field goal against the Seahawks below average defense. I know the Rams offense isn’t exactly a powerhouse when it comes to points scored, but I am betting on their defense will score some points. I don’t see the Jets scoring more than six points in this game and it wouldn’t surprise me if they were shut out. I’m taking the Rams to cover this large point spread.

Kansas City Chiefs at New Orleans Saints (+3) – My pick is Kansas City Chiefs

Even though Saints QB Drew Brees returned to practice this week, it doesn’t appear like he will be ready to play in this game. The Chiefs are the better team and I think their defense will be able to limit QB Taysom Hill on Sunday. Hill has been throwing the ball more the last two weeks, but I like the Chiefs defense in this matchup. The Chiefs haven’t been the best against the spread, but I think they are a tad undervalued in this one, so I’m taking them to cover.

Cleveland Browns at New York Giants (+4) – My pick is Cleveland Browns

It appears that Giants QB Daniel Jones will most likely miss this game with an ankle injury. New York will turn to Colt McCoy again, who fared well in his start two weeks ago, but he will be facing a better defense this game. The Browns offense has been much better the last few weeks and are coming off a heartbreaking loss at home to the Ravens on Monday night. Their offense has been great in back-to-back games against playoff-caliber teams (Baltimore & Tennessee). The Giants defense is better than most expected heading into this season. The Browns won’t blowout the Giants, but I think they will cover this one on Sunday night.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Cincinnati Bengals (+13) – My pick is Pittsburgh Steelers

The Bengals offense has been pretty awful since rookie QB Joe Burrow went down for the season due to a nasty knee injury. It doesn’t help that QB Brandon Allen is currently listed as ‘day-to-day’ due to a knee injury that occurred last week. If Ryan Finley has to start, the Bengals offense will take another step backwards. The Steelers didn’t play great in back-to-back weeks, but I think they will rebound with a big win on Monday Night Football and cover this double-digit point spread.

*These picks are for entertainment purposes

Sweetbob’s NFL picks against the spread record in previous seasons:
2013: 133-95-10
2014: 131-114-9
2015: 150-108-9
2016: 143-120-13
2017: 144-115-16
2018: 141-118-13
2019: 159-119-7
2020: 118-85-4

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About the Author…

Bobby Roberts (otherwise known as Sweetbob) is the creator of ‘America’s White Boy’ and contributor at Project Shanks. His writing has been featured on ESPN’s ‘SportsNation’, Sports Illustrated’s Hot Clicks, Guyspeed, and various other sites. You can follow him on Twitter at @Sweetbob