I went 8-6 against the spread last week.

As of Wednesday night, it looks like all these games are set to be played at their scheduled time. We haven’t seen as many positive COVID-19 tests this week, but considering the entire country has seen a sharp increase, we could see some before Sunday’s slate of games.

The marquee game this week appears to be the Pittsburgh Steelers versus Tennessee Titans contest. The Titans have had a string of marquee games and they’ve came out on top in all of them so far. Can they hold off Pittsburgh on Sunday?

Can Jimmy Garoppolo lead the Niners to a cover in New England?

We pick every NFL game against the spread and throw out a few upsets in Week 7 of the 2020 NFL season.

New York Giants at Philadelphia Eagles (-4.5) – My pick is Philadelphia Eagles

Both of these teams are reeling from injuries. The Giants are coming off their first outright of the season. They beat Washington 20-19, but failed to cover. They haven’t been horrible against the spread as many didn’t have high hopes for them coming into the season. They are currently 3-3 ATS and are 2-1 in their last three games. The Eagles injury report is as long as a Terms of Service document. They lost TE Zach Ertz and RB Miles Sanders last week and could be without both for a few weeks. The Eagles offensive line has been an issue all season, but it appears that they could get some help there with some stars returning from injury. They’ve needed to really lean on Sanders and he’s came through for them. Losing both of those players probably knocked a field goal off this spread. I still think there is enough talent on the Eagles to cover this spread. The Giants will need to pass to keep this close and they just have a ton of nagging injuries at wide receiver, which could be key. I’m taking the Eagles to cover.

Carolina Panthers at New Orleans Saints (-7.5) – My pick is Carolina Panthers

The Saints have been worse than most people realize. They are 3-2 outright (2-3 ATS) and have failed to cover three games by a difference of more than ten points. They just haven’t been very good against the pass. I think Carolina QB Teddy Bridgewater could be in line for a big game against his former team. The Saints do appear like they will get WR Michael Thomas back and should help them a lot, but that extra half-point scares me a little too much. I’m taking the points.

Cleveland Browns at Cincinnati Bengals (+3) – My pick is Cleveland Browns

I don’t see the Browns and Bengals as being this equal. As long as the Browns can limit QB Baker Mayfield’s turnovers, they should easily cover this game. He’s dealing with a rib injury and is currently listed as questionable. Backup QB Case Keenum is a capable quarterback and think it’s a wash if Baker can’t play. The Bengals are also dealing with an injury to RB Joe Mixon, who left last week’s game with a foot injury. He’s currently questionable and due to the Bengals being quiet about his status this week, it doesn’t seem like he will play this week. The Browns will bounce back after their blowout loss to the Steelers and cover this game in Cincinnati.

Green Bay Packers at Houston Texans (+3.5) – My pick is Green Bay Packers

I honestly can’t really explain the Packers blowout loss to the Bucs. Green Bay started the game off strong, but as soon as Packers QB Aaron Rodgers threw two picks in a matter of minutes, it just seemed like the Packers just quit. I know it’s not that simple, but it was like someone popped their balloon. The Texans have played better since they fired head coach Bill O’Brien. They are coming off a rather improbable loss to the Titans in overtime. They really should have won that game. I think the Packers are the much better team. They had a bad week and should rebound with a cover against the Texans.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Tennessee Titans (-1) – My pick is Pittsburgh Steelers

The Steelers are coming off a 38-7 blowout win at home against the Browns. They jumped out early and never looked back. The Steelers are also covering games consistently with a 4-1 record against the spread. One could say that the Steelers have had a rather easy schedule, which is true…but the consistent covers show that they are going above and beyond in their wins over teams they should beat. The Titans are 5-0 (2-3 ATS) and are coming off a 42-36 overtime win at home against Texans. Titans RB Derrick Henry crossed over the 200-yard mark in that game. Tennessee started the season rather bland and squeaked out wins, but failed to cover their first three games. They have covered their last two games, but winning (and covering) last week was a bit fluky. The odds of them covering that game when they were down late in regulation were staggering. The real battle in this game will be the Titans offense against the Steelers defense. The Steelers offense should be able to have a lot of success, so they will just need to stop the Titans. This game will be close and a fun watch. I’m taking the Steelers in this one.

Detroit Lions at Atlanta Falcons (-2) – My pick is Atlanta Falcons

The Falcons appeared to have a little more gas in their tank after firing head coach Dan Quinn. They got out to a 20-0 lead in first-half and coasted their way to a 40-23 win over the Vikings. The Falcons defense finally stepped up for the first time this season and forced Vikings QB Kirk Cousins to throw three interceptions. The Lions are starting to get a running game going this season. They got some positive games from veteran RB Adrian Peterson, but rookie RB D’Andre Swift is coming off his best game as a pro. This could be a close game, but if the Falcons can make a few stops again like they did against the Vikings, i think they cover this one at home.

Buffalo Bills at New York Jets (+13.5) – My pick is Buffalo Bills

The Bills started out the year with four-straight wins, but they have struggled in back-to-back weeks against probable playoff teams (Tennessee & Kansas City). The 42-16 loss in Tennessee was probably one of the worst losses of the season by any playoff contender. They were actually favored in that game by a field goal. After watching the Jets the last few weeks, I think this will be a huge bounce-back game for the Bills. The Jets are already looking at possible trades and they could be the leaders in the ‘Tank for Trevor Lawrence’ race. I’m taking the Bills to cover on Sunday.

Dallas Cowboys at Washington Football Team (-1) – My pick is Dallas Cowboys

The Cowboys haven’t covered a single game this season. I’m sure Vegas is absolutely loving that since the public puts so much money on the Cowboys every single week. I think that streak ends this week. I’ve been down on Washington all year and they aren’t quite equipped to take advantage of the Cowboys weak pass defense. If Dallas can limit turnovers and lean on RB Ezekiel Elliott, they should win this game.

Seattle Seahawks at Arizona Cardinals (+3.5) – My pick is Seattle Seahawks

The Seahawks are 5-0 (4-1 ATS) on the year and are coming off a bye week. They’ve struggled against the pass this year and they’ve needed every bit of their overpowered offense to stay perfect on the year. The Cardinals are putting together a very good season with a 4-2 (4-2 ATS) record this season. I can’t say they’ve been consistent this year, but they’ve been winning games even when maybe one facet of their team isn’t performing well. I’ve been a little worried about Cardinals QB Kyler Murray only completed nine passes last week. They had the game under control for most of the game and didn’t need to throw much, but he was still 9 for 24 in that game. This game will most likely be close just due to Seattle’s defensive issues, but I have a lot of faith in Seahawks QB Russell Wilson to cover this one.

San Francisco 49ers at New England Patriots (-2) – My pick is San Francisco 49ers

The Patriots haven’t looked great in their last two games. They scored a total of 22 points against the Chiefs and Broncos combined. Many thought everything would be back to normal with QB Cam Newton returning last week, but he turned the ball over a few times and didn’t look great. The Niners had a bounce-back game last week with a 24-16 win at home against the Rams. It was a surprising win after they were blown out by the Dolphins a week before. It was clear that a healthy QB Jimmy Garoppolo made a huge difference. They will be without RB Raheem Mostert for a couple weeks after injuring his ankle. They have a pair of backup running backs who should still be able to have success on the ground (Jerick McKinnon & JaMycal Hasty). I really like the Rams this year, so the Niners win over them was eye-opening to say the least. The Patriots aren’t moving the ball well right now and think the Niners will hang with them. I’m taking the points.

Kansas City Chiefs at Denver Broncos (+9.5) – My pick is Kansas City Chiefs

I think this game will wind up around the point spread. I think the thing that pushed me over the edge to the Chiefs is turnover-ratio. The Broncos are currently -5 in turnover ratio and the Chiefs are +5. Denver was even worse before last week’s win over New England. The Chiefs should win the turnover battle and come out with a cover against their division rival.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Los Angeles Chargers (-7.5) – My pick is Los Angeles Chargers

The Jaguars and Chargers both only have one outright win this year, but the Chargers have been the more impressive team. The Chargers are 4-1 ATS and have been competitive against good teams. They have forced two overtime games against the Chiefs and Saints, but lost by a field goal in both contests. The Jaguars defense is starting to fail them this year. The Lions and Texans really made that squad look bad the last two games. I think Chargers QB Justin Herbert should have another near-300-yard performance. I’m taking the Chargers to cover at home.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Las Vegas Raiders (+3) – My pick is Tampa Bay Buccaneers

I know a lot of people are hitting the Bucs hard this week, but this game could be tight near the end of the game. The Raiders are a team that I haven’t been super high on this year, but they’ve been slowly winning me over this year. They are coming off a bye and they beat the Chiefs in their last game. They’ve beaten some very good teams this year. The reason I’m taking the Bucs is that their wide receivers are finally at full health. We will finally see what QB Tom Brady can do with those weapons.

Chicago Bears at Los Angeles Rams (-6) – My pick is Chicago Bears

In a previous section, I mentioned that I am high on the Rams this year. I think they are a very good team, but they haven’t exactly been a cover machine. They’ve been winning games consistently, but are only 3-3 ATS. The Bears are a much better team in gambling than they are in real life. They are underrated due to their rather poor offense, but strong defensive teams are very profitable when it comes to gambling. The Bears haven’t scored more than 30 points all season, but are 4-2 ATS. They haven’t needed to score a lot to cover games because they’ve been limiting their opponents to 19.3 points per game. The Bears are 4-1 as an underdog against the spread. The Rams may win this game outright, but they won’t score enough to cover on Monday night.

*These picks are for entertainment purposes

Sweetbob’s NFL picks against the spread record in previous seasons:
2013: 133-95-10
2014: 131-114-9
2015: 150-108-9
2016: 143-120-13
2017: 144-115-16
2018: 141-118-13
2019: 159-119-7
2020: 52-38-0

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About the Author…

Bobby Roberts (otherwise known as Sweetbob) is the creator of ‘America’s White Boy’ and contributor at Project Shanks. His writing has been featured on ESPN’s ‘SportsNation’, Sports Illustrated’s Hot Clicks, Guyspeed, and various other sites. You can follow him on Twitter at @Sweetbob