I went 8-6 against the spread last week.
We are starting to get an firm grasp on which teams are potential playoff teams and which teams look like they could be headed in the ‘Tank for Trevor Lawrence’ direction.
We don’t have a Thursday night game this week, but we have two games Monday evening. They moved the game since the Bills played on Tuesday and it would have been insane if they were forced to play just two days later.
Packers QB Aaron Rodgers heads to Tampa Bay on Sunday to face QB Tom Brady. Can the Bucs give the Packers their first loss?
We pick every NFL game against the spread and throw out a few upsets in Week 6 of the 2020 NFL season.
Detroit Lions at Jacksonville Jaguars (+3) – My pick is Detroit Lions
The Lions come into this game 1-3 (1-3 ATS), but they aren’t as bad as their record. They were within one score of every game in the fourth quarter in all but their loss to Green Bay. They have been even better since WR Kenny Golladay debuted two games ago. The Jaguars come into this game 1-4 (2-3 ATS) and are coming off a bad loss to the then-winless Texans. They let Texans QB Deshaun Watson have his best game of the season. The Jaguars are also dealing with injuries to some of their best players on defense. LB Myles Jack and DE Josh Allen are both questionable for this game. The Jaguars could have trouble covering WR Kenny Golladay and if he gets open, Lions QB Matthew Stafford will exploit that. I’m taking the Lions to cover on Sunday.
Denver Broncos at New England Patriots (-10) – My pick is New England Patriots
I’m sure I say this nearly every time I’m faced with a double-digit point spread in the NFL, but I freaking hate them. The Broncos clearly have a lot of issues with injuries and it doesn’t help that starting RB Melvin Gordon got a DUI this week. I’m not sure of his status at the moment, but I expect some sort of punishment will come his way in the coming weeks. They are expected to have QB Drew Lock back from his shoulder injury, which was a huge positive of having this game delayed due to a New England COVID-19 outbreak. The Patriots are also expected to have QB Cam Newton back from his bout with the virus, but it’s unknown if CB Stephon Gilmore will be cleared in time. I expect the Patriots will focus on the run, since they’ve had a lot of success in their wins this season. If this line was -10.5 or greater, I may not pick the Patriots, but I’ll take them and hope for a cover or a push with this current line.
Chicago Bears at Carolina Panthers (-2.5) – My pick is Chicago Bears
The Panthers are 3-2 (3-2 ATS) on the season and have covered their last three games, all as an underdog, and cashed in on the moneylines in those games. They are heading into ‘overrated’ territory as it’s coming time for a market crash. They are coming off a 23-16 win in Atlanta. Panthers QB Teddy Bridgewater three for 313 yards against a very bad pass defense. The Falcons fired their head coach and general manager after the game. Bridgewater will have a more difficult time against the Bears, who are a top-ten defense. Chicago was able to inch a 20-19 win against the Bucs on Thursday night. Their offense is the obvious weaker unit, but they are 4-1 (3-2 ATS) on the year. I like the underdog play here as the Bears are 3-1 against the spread when given points. I don’t predict a high-scoring affair on Sunday and I’m taking the points.
Cleveland Browns at Pittsburgh Steelers (-3.5) – My pick is Pittsburgh Steelers
The Browns come into this game 4-1 (3-2 ATS) on the year and have won four-straight games. They are also on a three-game cover streak. They have only beaten one probable playoff team during this streak, and that was last week at home against the Colts. As long as Cleveland limits QB Baker Mayfield’s passing attempts, they have taken been able to win the turnover battle. The Steelers are also 4-1 (3-2 ATS) on the season. They have bounced-back from last year’s forgettable year and are one of the better AFC teams with QB Ben Roethlisberger back. He is completing 69.9% of his passes and has thrown 10 touchdowns with only one interception. He has been helped by a successful running game led by a group of homegrown, young running backs. They also have some of the best wide receiver corps in the AFC. They can lose a talented receiver like WR Diontae Johnson and have the depth to have WR Chase Claypool to step right in and the offense doesn’t miss a beat. The addition of TE Eric Ebron this season was another huge win for them so far. The Browns are a little too hyped right now and should fall back down to Earth. The Steelers are a better overall team and should cover against the division rival at home.
Atlanta Falcons at Minnesota Vikings (-3.5) – My pick is Minnesota Vikings
The Falcons canned head coach Dan Quinn and longtime GM Thomas Dimitroff after their loss to the Panthers last week. They are winless on the year and are 1-4 ATS. Their passing offense was their lone bright spot, but even that has fell flat the last couple weeks. Some of that could be due to some wide receiver injuries, but they have quite a few weaknesses, so it was probably a laundry list of reasons. They have the 31st ranked defense and are allowing 335 passing yards a game. The Vikings haven’t had 300+ passing yards in a game this season, but this could be their first. They will likely be without RB Dalvin Cook, but RB Alexander Mattison is a skilled backup. Minnesota has their own issues against the pass, so this game has the possibility of turning into a shootout. The extra half-point does scare me a little, but I’m still taking the Vikings to cover at home.
Baltimore Ravens at Philadelphia Eagles (+7.5) – My pick is Baltimore Ravens
I’ve been down on the Eagles this season. They are 1-3-1 (1-4 ATS) on the season and their passing game has been pitiful at times. They have been destroyed by injuries to their wide receivers. It doesn’t seem like they will get WR Desean Jackson back this week. He’s still nursing a hamstring injury. Their offense has been carried by RB Miles Sanders. The Ravens are 4-1 (3-2 ATS) on the year and are coming off a 27-3 win at home against the Bengals. It wasn’t much of a game. The Ravens have won by at least 14 points in all of their four victories. They haven’t been inching out wins, so this point spread doesn’t deter me. The final score of this game could very well be similar to the Eagles 37-19 loss to the Rams. I don’t foretell Philly being able to stop Ravens QB Lamar Jackson, so I’m taking Baltimore to cover on the road.
Houston Texans at Tennessee Titans (-3) – My pick is Tennessee Titans
The Texans won their first game of the year last weekend. They looked great against the Jaguars and they had more life in the offense since firing head coach Bill O’Brien. Texans QB Deshaun Watson threw for over 300 yards and WR Brandin Cooks had his best game as a Texan. The Titans are undefeated this season, but are 1-3 against the spread. They have been winning ugly, but was able to have a statement win on Tuesday night against the Bills. They scored 42 points and was their entire offense was clicking against a fast Bills defense. Both teams have a lot of confidence heading into this game. The home team has historically done very well in their head-to-head meetings. They bucked the trend last year with the away team covering both of their matchups, but the home team covered in six-straight meetings until last year. I know those trends can be meaningless, but it is worth noting. The Texans have had one of the toughest schedules in the NFL thus far and are probably better than their record. I just liked what I saw from the Titans on Tuesday against a tough Bills defense. Their defense also stepped up and made Bills QB Josh Allen look like ‘2019 Josh Allen’. I’m taking the Titans to cover on Sunday.
Cincinnati Bengals at Indianapolis Colts (-8) – My pick is Cincinnati Bengals
The Colt are 3-2 (3-2 ATS) on the year and are coming off a 32-23 loss in Cleveland. Their defense weren’t able to stop the Browns on third-down. Cleveland ate up the clock and had the ball nearly ten minutes longer than Indy. The Colts offense needs to win the time of possession battle as they don’t have a ‘big play’ offense. They want to run the ball and get the ball in the hands of their running backs. If Indy is forced to throw the ball often, QB Philip Rivers is just going to throw interceptions. The Bengals offense has their own issues as they coming into this game with the 26th ranked offense. The Colts has fared well thus far against average offenses and have covered by double-digits in their three covers this season. I know I tend to be a little critical on my Colts evaluations because I’ve been a Colts fan my entire life, but I’m going out on a limb here and taking the points.
Washington Football Team at New York Giants (-2.5) – My pick is New York Giants
This one could be an ugly one. The NFC East is in shambles and these are probably the two worst teams in the division. Washington is trying to do some new things with QB Kyle Allen at quarterback. He injured his arm last week and QB Alex Smith had to come in to finish the game. Smith dink and dunked passes, but they were never competitive in last week’s game against the Rams. The Giants have lost four-straight games, but have covered their last two. The Cowboys had to make a comeback to win the game outright. I think the Giants are probably the better team. Their defense is better and since both teams offense can be inconsistent, I think I’ll take the stronger defense in this game. I’m taking the Giants to cover.
New York Jets at Miami Dolphins (-10) – My pick is Miami Dolphins
The Dolphins are 2-3 (3-2 ATS) on the year and looked impressive in their 43-17 win in San Francisco. In the three games they covered, Dolphins QB Ryan Fitzpatrick threw seven touchdowns and no interceptions…but in their two losses against the spread, Fitzpatrick threw no touchdowns and five interceptions. The key to a win is to force Fitz to throw picks, and I don’t think the Jets will have an easy time doing that. They are in a free-fall and cut starting RB Le’Veon Bell. It looks like they will be start backup QB Joe Flacco for the second-straight game. The Dolphins have a lot of confidence after last week’s beating of the Niners. The Jets appear like they could be one of the three-worst teams in the NFL. I’m taking Miami to cover this double-digit point spread.
Green Bay Packers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+1) – My pick is Green Bay Packers
The Packers are undefeated this year and have covered all four of their games. They could be the best team in the NFL right now. They are just playing near-perfect football. Packers QB Aaron Rodgers is having his best season since 2016. They haven’t played top-tier talent on their schedule yet, but they haven’t had much trouble against any opponent through their first quarter of games. The Bucs are 3-2 (2-3 ATS) on the year and you could say that they haven’t lived up to the preseason hype. They signed QB Tom Brady and a handful of former Pro Bowlers followed him. They beat all three teams you’d expect them to defeat, but lost against two potential NFC playoff teams. They would need a huge game from Brady, but could be without WR Chris Godwin again, and last week, they lost DT Vita Vea for the season due to an ankle injury. I have to take the Packers to cover, they are just playing too well right now.
Los Angeles Rams at San Francisco 49ers (+3.5) – My pick is Los Angeles Rams
If you subtract the Rams’ first-half performance against the Bills in Week 3, they have won every half of football they’ve played this year. They aren’t super flashy on offense and there isn’t anyone specifically having a monster year. They’ve just been a solid overall squad on both sides of the ball. You can’t say the same about the Niners. They are dealing with numerous injuries and it appeared that they could be turning the corner as some were able to suit up last week, but the Dolphins just smoked them. Niners QB Jimmy Garoppolo was benched in favor of backup QB C.J. Beathard. He clearly came back too soon, but he is expected to start on Sunday night. The Rams are playing their best football right now and the Niners are struggling. This like should probably be closer to +7, so I’m jumping on this line right now. I’m taking the Rams to cover.
Kansas City Chiefs at Buffalo Bills (+3.5) – My pick is Kansas City Chiefs
Both teams suffered their first loss of the year last week. The Chiefs were upset at home by the Raiders 40-32 and the Bills were handled by the Titans 42-16 on Tuesday. The Chiefs were coming off two statement wins against the Patriots and Ravens, so you could chalk it up to a letdown loss or maybe they overlooked the Raiders. It’s hard to make an excuse for the Bills as they were dominated for the last three quarters of that game. Bills QB Josh Allen wasn’t sharp and looked more like last year’s version. They also struggled to run the ball. The Chiefs should bounce-back and cover on Monday night.
Arizona Cardinals at Dallas Cowboys (+2.5) – My pick is Dallas Cowboys
I can’t believe I’m betting on Cowboys QB Andy Dalton again. He burned me pretty bad his final year in Cincinnati, but I am hoping the Cowboys have a little ‘Ewing Theory‘ in them. They can focus on running the ball, which will limit the amount of time their horrible defense is out on the field. I remember when the Colts used a similar strategy one year when their defense was arguably one of the worst in the league, but they allowed QB Peyton Manning to take his time out there and drain the clock. The Cardinals aren’t pushovers, so Dalton might be called upon to throw if they fall behind. He looked pretty good after he took over for QB Dak Prescott last week. He wasn’t always a bad quarterback, but we all strongly remember his speedy decline with the Bengals. I’m taking a risk here, but I’m taking the points in this one.
*These picks are for entertainment purposes
Sweetbob’s NFL picks against the spread record in previous seasons:
2013: 133-95-10
2014: 131-114-9
2015: 150-108-9
2016: 143-120-13
2017: 144-115-16
2018: 141-118-13
2019: 159-119-7
2020: 44-32-0
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About the Author…
Bobby Roberts (otherwise known as Sweetbob) is the creator of ‘America’s White Boy’ and contributor at Project Shanks. His writing has been featured on ESPN’s ‘SportsNation’, Sports Illustrated’s Hot Clicks, Guyspeed, and various other sites. You can follow him on Twitter at @Sweetbob