I went 12-12 against the spread last week.
Colleges are still struggling with COVID-19 outbreaks and a few games have already been cancelled/postponed from this weekend’s slate. As of Friday, all of the games I’ve picked are still scheduled to be played, but with positive numbers shooting up, it could still change.
The biggest game this weekend is Georgia at Alabama. It’s a shame that the Tide should be without head coach due to a positive COVID-19 test since this game will play such a huge factor in the SEC landscape.
We at ‘America’s White Boy’ pick 25 college football games against the spread in Week 7 of the 2020-21 NCAA Football season (October 17th, 2020).
BYU at Houston (+3) – My pick is BYU Cougars
BYU comes into this game 4-0 (3-1 ATS) and are coming off their first non-cover of the year in their 27-20 win at home against Texas-San Antonio. They were favored by nearly five touchdowns, so this was a huge letdown. The Roadrunners might be better than we think. It wasn’t like BYU had a bad game, but their defense did allow more passing yards from UTSA than expected. The Cougars could have just been caught overlooking this relatively new FBS football program. Houston have had a few cancelled games due to COVID and have only played one game so far. They beat Tulane 49-31 last week. Houston was able to hold Tulane QB Michael Pratt to just completing 44% of his passes. BYU has been a huge surprise this season and I expect a strong game from QB Zach Wilson. If BYU’s defense is able to hold off Houston WR Marquez Stevenson, they should cover this game on the road.
Georgia at Alabama (-4.5) – My pick is Georgia Bulldogs
Alabama is currently dealing with a COVID-19 outbreak and should be without head coach Nick Saban (the NCAA has a rule against remote coaching). I don’t see the bending for Alabama, even though we are in unusual times. This is an unfortunate time to lose their head coach, but there’s no good time to catch this virus. Both teams come into this game undefeated, but I would argue that Georgia has been more impressive. They were a half-point away from covering all three of their games. Alabama has only cover one of their three games and their appears to be their weakest squad. They allowed 48 points last week at Ole Miss, but were able to out-score the Rebels on the back of RB Najee Harris. This could be tight, but Georgia clearly has the better defense this year. If Georgia can just make a few stops and hold Harris to an above-average game, I think the Bulldogs keep this within a field goal, so I’m taking the points.
Texas A&M at Mississippi State (+4.5) – My pick is Texas A&M Aggies
Mississippi State’s upset over LSU in their opener is looking less impressive every week. LSU might have one of the worst defenses in the SEC and the Bulldogs took advantage of it. MSU is coming off a 24-2 loss at Kentucky. Their passing game was broken with six interceptions and not a single touchdown in sight. I can’t really say Kentucky’s defense is extraordinary either, Mike Leach’s offense just had a horrible, horrible game. A&M are 2-1 on the year and have covered two of their three games. They had an upset win over Florida last week. They scored ten unanswered points in the last few minutes of the game. A&M QB Kellen Mond has thrown for 300+ yards and three scores in back-to-back games. The Aggies aren’t the best team in the SEC, but I would suggest that they could be the best team in that second-tier of SEC teams behind Georgia, Alabama and maybe Auburn. They should beat up on the conference teams at MSU’s level. I’m taking the Aggies to cover in Starkville.
Boston College at Virginia Tech (-13.5) – My pick is Boston College Eagles
Boston College come into this game 3-1 (3-1 ATS) and are coming off a 31-30 win at home against Pitt in overtime. They covered all three of their games as the underdog. A lot of their success stems from the unexpected play from QB Phil Jurkovec. The Notre Dame-transfer has been better than advertised. Virginia Tech are 2-1 on the season and has only covered one of their three games. I expected a lot more from the Hokies defense, but they’ve been disappointing. They allowed 56 points in last week’s loss at North Carolina. The Hokies will need their strong running game to carry them in this game, but Boston College might have the advantage on both sides of the ball in this game. I’m taking the points and I might lay a few jellybeans on the BC moneyline.
North Carolina at Florida State (+13.5) – My pick is North Carolina Tar Heels
I was high on the Tar Heels coming into the season, but their offense looked a tad rusty in their first two games. They were finally able to put up some crooked numbers against Virginia Tech last week in a 56-45 win. UNC QB Sam Howell was able to take care of the ball better and was helped greatly by his running game. North Carolina running backs Michael Carter and Javonte Williams combined for 383 yards against the Hokies. Florida State are 1-3 (1-3 ATS) on the season, with their only outright win coming against an FCS school. Their first cover came last week as they were 21-point underdogs against Notre Dame and were able to only lose by 16 points…so, yay I guess? Notre Dame started the game ugly and outscored FSU 28-9 in the final three quarters. The Seminoles will have trouble with the Tar Heels offense. The Seminoles just aren’t deep enough on defense, so I’m taking UNC to cover on Saturday.
Virginia at Wake Forest (+2.5) – My pick is Virginia Cavaliers
Virginia opened the year with a 38-20 win at home against Duke, but followed that with back-to-back losses. Last week’s 38-21 loss at home to NC State was a poor effort with the Wolfpack increasing their lead in the fourth quarter. They need their running game to have more success per attempt. They ran the ball too many times to not break the 100-yard threshold. Wake Forest is coming off a blowout win at home against an FCS school. It was their first win of the year after losing their first two games (Clemson & NC State). Wake Forest should probably be +3.5 underdogs, so I’ll gladly take the extra cushion and take Virginia to cover.
Duke at NC State (-4.5) – My pick is Duke Blue Devils
NC State are 3-1 (3-1 ATS) on the season and was able to win two close games against Wake Forest and Pitt earlier this season. Their defense gives up too many big plays, so they’ve really needed to claw and scratch in their covers this year. Duke started out the year with two bad losses against Boston College and Virginia. They have covered their last two games and got their first outright win of the year last week at Syracuse. Their running game is finally starting to click and have turned the corner after their rough start. This could be a high-scoring game and NC State’s line is a little bloated, so I’m taking the points.
Kentucky at Tennessee (-6) – My pick is Kentucky Wildcats
Kentucky is coming off a 24-2 win and humiliated Mississippi State in the process. The Wildcats forced six interceptions, which was completely unexpected. Kentucky’s offense wasn’t great either, but due to great field position, they were able to score 24 points. Tennessee is coming off a 44-21 loss at Georgia. There wasn’t a ton to takeaway from that game as Georgia dominated them in the second-half by scoring 27 unanswered points to win the game. These two teams are on the same tier in the SEC. I would put them with A&M in the second-tier behind Georgia, Florida, Alabama and Auburn. I don’t agree with this betting line and think it should be closer to a field goal point spread. I’m taking the points.
Louisville at Notre Dame (-17) – My pick is Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Louisville is coming off a bad loss to Georgia Tech. I’ve been down on the Yellow Jackets, so to lose to them by 19 points, was borderline embarrassing. The Cardinals were able to run the ball against GT, but their defense didn’t show up in the second-half. The Irish are coming off a 42-26 win at home against Florida State. Notre Dame struggled in the first quarter and gave up 17 points. They got their shit together and held the Seminoles to only 9 points the rest of the way. Their running game is the key to this game. Louisville gave up a ton on the ground against Georgia Tech, and Notre Dame’s ground game is so much better. I’m taking the Irish to cover at home.
Pittsburgh at Miami (FL) (-13.5) – My pick is Pitt Panthers
Pitt comes into this game 3-2 (1-3-1 ATS), but are struggling against the spread. They suffered a tough overtime loss to Boston College last week when their kicked missed an extra point. They have now suffered back-to-back one-point losses. Miami suffered their first loss of the season last week against #1 Clemson 42-17. The Hurricanes are an improved team, but they aren’t quite at the level of the Tigers this season. They are trending in the right direction, but the depth isn’t there yet and will come with time. The Hurricanes should win the game, but Pitt has only only covered one game this year and that was their opener against Austin Peay. Pitt has an underrated defense and should keep this game within double-digits, so I’m taking the points.
QUICK HITS
SMU at Tulane (+6.5) – My pick is SMU
Auburn at South Carolina (+3.5) – My pick is Auburn
South Florida at Temple (-11) – My pick is Temple
Liberty at Syracuse (+3) – My pick is Liberty
Navy at East Carolina (+2.5) – My pick is Navy
Clemson at Georgia Tech (+27) – My pick is Clemson
Kansas at West Virginia (-22.5) – My pick is West Virginia
UCF at Memphis (+3) – My pick is UCF
Mississippi at Arkansas (+1.5) – My pick is Ole Miss
Southern Miss at UTEP (+6.5) – My pick is UTEP
BONUS PICKS!
Texas State at South Alabama (-3) – My pick is Texas State
Army at Texas-San Antonio (+7.5) – My pick is UTSA
Western Kentucky at UAB (-13.5) – My pick is UAB
North Texas at Middle Tennessee (-6.5) – My pick is North Texas
Florida International at Charlotte (-7) – My pick is FIU
Sweetbob’s college football picks against the spread record in previous seasons:
2013: 134-79-8
2014: 148-118-4
2015: 149-118-3
2016: 196-145-6
2017: 183-159-13
2018: 177-157-6
2019: 187-141-8
2020: 51-49-1
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About the Author…
Bobby Roberts (otherwise known as Sweetbob) is the creator of ‘America’s White Boy’ and contributor at Project Shanks. His writing has been featured on ESPN’s ‘SportsNation’, Sports Illustrated’s Hot Clicks, Guyspeed, and various other sites. You can follow him on Twitter at @Sweetbob.