I went 11-5 against the spread last week.

I really don’t want to go through picking NFL games against the spread in Week 1 without a single preseason game ever again. It was a tall task and I’ll take the 11-5 record as a personal victory.

Do you guys think home teams have much of an advantage this season? There are limited fans and the whole situation is weird for both teams. The travel aspect is a huge factor though. I am curious to see the final home records at the end of the year to see how it all shakes out. 

Can Jacksonville QB Gardner Minshew III lead the Jaguars to back-to-back covers against AFC South teams?

We pick every NFL game against the spread and throw out a few upsets in Week 2 of the 2020 NFL season.

Cincinnati Bengals at Cleveland Browns (-6) – My pick is Cincinnati Bengals

Browns QB Baker Mayfield has not lived up to his hype for quite awhile now. He opened the year completing just 21 of 39 passes in a 38-6 loss at Baltimore. He also lost TE David Njoku (knee) for a few weeks and he will most likely be without WR Jarvis Landry (hip) this week. Bengals QB Joe Burrow started his career off with a loss, but he was far from sloppy in his debut. He surprised many with his running skills. He did a little of that at LSU, but he showed off some speed against the Chargers. Bengals RB Joe Mixon has had some of his best games against the Browns. I think he shows up on Thursday and helps rookie Burrow keep this one close. I’m not a fan of what I saw from Cleveland last week. They could struggle against a Bengals team hungry for a big in-state win. I’m taking the points on Thursday.

Denver Broncos at Pittsburgh Steelers (-7.5) – My pick is Denver Broncos

I’m a bit surprised by this betting line. I thought the Broncos did enough last week to at least keep the spread within a touchdown. The Titans needed a last-minute field goal to beat the Broncos on Monday night. Denver’s offense looked pretty good against a healthy Titans defense. I think Denver will only get better considering they have a lot of young talent like WR Jerry Jeudy, who looked great in his NFL debut. They will probably be without RB Phillip Lindsay, but RB Royce Freeman can step up in the backup role behind RB Melvin Gordon. The Steelers had their own health issues at running back with RB James Connor going down with an ankle injury. He’s currently listed as questionable, but the Steelers should be just fine with RB Benny Snell Jr. if he can’t go. Steelers QB Ben Roethlisberger looked good in nearly a calendar year. He has a lot of young weapons on offense and will be just fine. I actually like both of these teams this year. Denver was one of my sleeper picks to earn a Wild-Card spot this season. A lot has to go right for them to get there, but I could see them for sure having a winning record against the spread this season. This game will be closer than the spread would dictate, I’m taking the points.

Buffalo Bills at Miami Dolphins (+6) – My pick is Buffalo Bills

The Bills looked like a potential AFC East favorite last week. The poise QB Josh Allen showed last week was unexpected. He made smart throws and made the right calls to tuck and run a few times. The Dolphins looked like a potential basement dweller in the AFC East last week. Dolphins QB Ryan Fitzpatrick threw three interceptions and killed any momentum they had. The Dolphins are dead in the water until they pull the trigger on starting rookie QB Tua Tagovailoa. I’m taking the Bills to cover in Miami.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Tennessee Titans (-9) – My pick is Jacksonville Jaguars

This betting line is pretty disrespectful. The Jaguars beat the Colts last week and then find themselves as a nine-point underdog the following week? The Titans didn’t even look great in their two-point win against the Broncos. The teams split their games last year, so it’s not like the Titans have some sort of historic advantage over the Jags. Jacksonville is good enough to hang with Tennessee all game. The Titans will probably win, but I don’t foresee a dominant win. I’m taking the points in this game.

Detroit Lions at Green Bay Packers (-6) – My pick is Detroit Lions

The Lions looked great against the Bears in the first-half…but then the second-half happened. The outcome could have been different if RB D’Andre Swift didn’t drop an easy touchdown late in the game. On the bright side, they got way more out of RB Adrian Peterson than they even expected. He has a history of burning NFC North teams, so maybe he can do it in back-to-back games, we shall see. I expect the Lions will have QB Matthew Stafford throw the ball more this week. The Packers were expected to be a run-heavy team this year, but QB Aaron Rodgers threw the ball 44 times with four touchdown passes against the Vikings. The Lions do have a few new faces in their secondary, so that could be the gameplan again this week. The Packers and Lions have had many close games over the last few years. The underdog has covered in their last three meetings. This line is a tad too bloated for my liking. The Packers may still win outright, but I have to take the points.

Los Angeles Rams at Philadelphia Eagles (+1) – My pick is Los Angeles Rams

The Eagles allowed eight sacks last week against the Washington Football Team (should I just call them the ‘Footballers’ to avoid this awkward name?). The Eagles lost their left tackle for the season and there’s no help on the horizon. In order for Philly’s offense to work, QB Carson Wentz needs time in the pocket. They have two outstanding tight ends, but it’s hard to put in a two-TE set without having at least one of them stay home to pass block. The Eagles will have their hands full blocking Rams DE Aaron Donald. I expect the Rams defense will do its job on Sunday and will free up the offense to pound the rock and eat up the clock. Rams RB Malcolm Brown should get plenty of work. I’m taking the Rams to cover.

Carolina Panthers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-9.5) – My pick is Carolina Panthers

This line has a lot of ‘Tom Brady can’t lose against the spread in back-to-back games, right?’ built in it. People instinctively want to bet on Brady, so Vegas is jacking up the line to really make you think about putting money on him. Brady didn’t look great in his first game, but he was far from mediocre. He has a lot of talented guys around him and the Bucs defense is loaded with former Pro Bowlers. The Panthers aren’t a bad team. They had the lead against the Raiders late in the game, but lost it when Raiders RB Josh Jacobs scored his third touchdown. Tampa Bay will most likely win this game, but I don’t think they are near-double-digits better than Carolina. Panthers QB Teddy Bridgewater is drastically underrated and RB Christian McCaffrey is slippery. I’m taking the points in this game.

New York Giants at Chicago Bears (-5.5) – My pick is Chicago Bears

At first glance, this game was a coin-flip for me. I had to do some digging and look into probable position match-ups. There are a lot of question marks on offense for the Bears, but their defense will give them a large advantage in this game. If they can put pressure on Giants QB Daniel Jones and have CB Kyle Fuller shutdown one side of the field, the Giants become predictable. As long as Bears QB Mitchell Trubisky doesn’t make any bonehead plays, I think the Bears cover at home on Sunday.

Minnesota Vikings at Indianapolis Colts (-3) – My pick is Indianapolis Colts

There were some positives to take away from last week’s Colts loss. We saw the potential in the Colts backfield with QB Philip Rivers under center. He relies heavily on the running backs in the passing game and having a quarterback that comfortable to check down to his running back is a huge asset. On the flip side, there was a glaring negative from last week’s loss. When Rivers has his back against the wall, he tries to thread the needle with the ball. He tried that a couple times against the Jaguars and threw interceptions both times. The Vikings are also coming off a loss to a divisional team. The Vikings allowed Packers QB Aaron Rodgers to throw four touchdowns on his way to a 43-34 win in Minnesota. The Vikings just didn’t have an answer for Packers WR Davante Adams, who had 14 catches for 156 yards and two touchdowns. This game could be a tight one, but I like the Colts receivers against the Vikings corners. I’m taking the Colts to cover at home.

Atlanta Falcons at Dallas Cowboys (-4.5) – My pick is Dallas Cowboys

Atlanta has a potent offense, but their defense needs a few more playmakers to be able to stop good teams. Falcons QB Matt Ryan was throwing darts and spreading the ball around like a sniper…but they still lost to Seattle 38-25. The Falcons just couldn’t stop Seahawks QB Russell Wilson. The Cowboys are coming off a controversial loss to the Rams on Sunday night. A late offensive pass interference call ended their hopes of a comeback. Cowboys QB Dak Prescott should have an easier time passing against Atlanta this week. The Falcons defense will fail the offense again on Sunday. I’m taking the Cowboys to cover at home.

San Francisco 49ers at New York Jets (+7) – My pick is San Francisco 49ers

The Niners didn’t look great last week in their 24-20 loss at home to the Cardinals. Arizona QB Kyler Murray was finding WR DeAndre Hopkins the whole game and he also did some damage with his legs. The Niners are quite thin at receiver and they lost TE Greg Kittle to a knee injury in last week’s game. Kittle is currently questionable for Sunday’s game, so keep an eye on the injury reports this week. The Niners defense needs a huge game and the Jets are wounded prey. They lost RB Le’Veon Bell with a torn hamstring that will cost him a month or longer. The Jets signed RB Kalen Ballage off the unemployment line and they plan to use him with RBs Frank Gore and Josh Adams. Jets QB Sam Darnold didn’t look great last week, but he was able to connect with WR Jamison Crowder on a few big plays. It was the one silver lining in a forgettable game against the Bills. The Niners will bounce-back this week and cover against the Jets.

Washington Football Team at Arizona Cardinals (-7) – My pick is Washington Football Team

Arizona played like a young, hungry team last week. QB Kyler Murray found newly-acquired WR DeAndre Hopkins fourteen times for 151 yards last week. Murray had a 321 total yards combined passing and rushing in their win over the Niners. Washington leaned on their defense to lead the way to a 27-17 win over Philadelphia. They had eight sacks and a total of 13 tackles for loss. Some of that is the Eagles offensive line woes, but Washington has a ton of young, fast talent on defense. After a horrible offseason filled with scandals, they needed that game to get some confidence back. I think they will travel to Arizona and keep this one close. Arizona will have a letdown game and I’m taking the points.

Kansas City Chiefs at Los Angels Chargers (+8.5) – My pick is Kansas City Chiefs

I would feel more comfortable if this line was less than +7, but I still feel confident with my pick. The Chiefs dusted off any nerves from their Thursday night opener. They beat Houston 34-20 and looked great in the win. Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes didn’t have gaudy numbers, but he doesn’t need a box score shattering output for this team to win. They hinged on rookie RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire and drained the clock late in the game. The Chargers aren’t the flashiest team on paper with QB Tyrod Taylor under center. Taylor does enough to win games and doesn’t get much credit. He probably hate this label, but he is one of the best ‘game manager’ quarterbacks on any roster. The Chargers defense will make the Chiefs work on Sunday, but Mahomes is just on another level from the rest of the league. I do worry that the Chiefs will lay off the gas if they have a double-digit lead late and a garbage-time score could sway the outcome…but I’m taking the Chiefs to cover.

Baltimore Ravens at Houston Texans (+7) – My pick is Baltimore Ravens

I didn’t like what I saw from the Texans on Thursday. As I said earlier, the Chiefs beat the Texans and they didn’t even need to break the glass on Mahomes. Kansas City didn’t need to do much to dominate in that game. The Texans know that and I expect some adjustments on offense this week. The Ravens came out of the gates on fire. They beat up on Browns QB Baker Mayfield on their way to a blowout win in Week 1. Ravens QB Lamar Jackson was accurate and didn’t turn the ball over. I also love the addition of RB J.K. Dobbins as a red zone threat. He is a skilled running back and could the lead back if needed. Baltimore is too skilled and Houston played flat last week. I have to take the Ravens to cover this week.

New England Patriots at Seattle Seahawks (-4) – My pick is Seattle Seahawks

The start of the Cam Newton Era in New England was victorious. He didn’t do much in the passing game, but he scored two touchdowns on the ground on their way to a 21-11 win at home against Miami. I’m interested in seeing if Newton can keep up his efficient play against a defense with some elite playmakers. The Seahawks have a few studs still left on their defense and will make Newton struggle on Sunday night. The Seahawks are coming off an offensive explosion against the Falcons. QB Russell Wilson was 31 for 35 for 322 yards and threw four touchdowns. He couldn’t have started off any better. The Patriots may not have the personnel on defense to be able to stop Wilson. They lost some talent to free agency and to opt-outs due to COVID-19. I like Seattle to cover at home on Sunday night.

New Orleans Saints at Las Vegas Raiders (+5.5) – My pick is New Orleans Saints

The Saints will be without WR Michael Thomas on Monday night. That’s a huge blow, but I still think they have enough talent to overcome that loss. I also think that because the Raiders talent is a step or two below the Saints as a whole. I haven’t been impressed with most of the Raiders draft picks or their free agent signings during the Jon Gruden tenure. In spite of my evaluation of their roster, the Raiders are coming off a 34-30 win in Carolina. They kept feeding RB Josh Jacobs the ball and he found the endzone three times on the ground. He had 139 total yards on 29 touches. I’m not predicting a blowout for the Saints, but they should win by a touchdown or more.

*These picks are for entertainment purposes

Sweetbob’s NFL picks against the spread record in previous seasons:
2013: 133-95-10
2014: 131-114-9
2015: 150-108-9
2016: 143-120-13
2017: 144-115-16
2018: 141-118-13
2019: 159-119-7
2020: 11-5-0

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About the Author…

Bobby Roberts (otherwise known as Sweetbob) is the creator of ‘America’s White Boy’ and contributor at Project Shanks. His writing has been featured on ESPN’s ‘SportsNation’, Sports Illustrated’s Hot Clicks, Guyspeed, and various other sites. You can follow him on Twitter at @Sweetbob