I went 7-8-1 against the spread last week.

A few more playoff spots could be clinched this weekend. All of the potential playoff teams still have a lot to play for, so I don’t foresee any teams resting their starters.

There wasn’t a Thursday night game this week, but we do see our first Saturday games. There’s a couple of bangers on that day. The Bills/Patriots & Rams/Niners have playoff implications.

Can Ravens QB Lamar Jackson clinch the MVP award with a strong performance against the Browns?

We pick every NFL game against the spread and throw out a few upsets in Week 16 of the 2019 NFL season.

Houston Texans at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+3) – My pick is Tampa Bay Buccaneers

This one could be a passing display on Saturday. Both teams are in the bottom-five in pass defense and both have a solid passing offense, but the Bucs are ranked #1. Tampa Bay will pass no matter what. They’ve passed through multiple interception-heavy games from QB Jameis Winston. They’ve even managed to pass their way to wins in a couple of those games. The Texans defense have struggled against some high-octane offenses. They lost big against Baltimore and they even let Denver put up 38 points on them just two weeks ago. I think as long as the Bucs can pass, and I think they will be able to, Tampa Bay will keep this one close and could even win this game outright. I’m taking the points.

Buffalo Bills at New England Patriots (-6.5) – My pick is Buffalo Bills

The Patriots and Bills are both ranked in the top-three in overall defense. Neither offense can really put up a ton of points, but the Patriots are the most efficient in that regard. New England has been able to convert a good percentage of third downs and they are decent in the red zone. That being said, the Patriots haven’t done well in big games this year. This is a huge game since the winner would be in the driver’s seat to win the AFC East. The Patriots could actually clinch with a win. New England will most likely win at home, but six points is a tad too large of a point spread. I’m taking the points in this game.

Los Angeles Rams at San Francisco 49ers (-6.5) – My pick is San Francisco 49ers

This is another fun match-up for Saturday. The Niners won their last match-up 20-7 early this season. It was their first real test of the season and after that win, people looked at them in a different light. They were able to run against the Rams and Jimmy G was efficient with his passes. They didn’t break any big runs, but they just kept feeding their running backs and it was working. I think the Niners will be able to win with a similar gameplan and could have more success on the ground. RB Raheem Mostert has looked great in recent weeks and he has moved into the lead back role for the Niners. I think the Niners will cover at home.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Atlanta Falcons (-7) – My pick is Atlanta Falcons

The Falcons have surprised me the last two weeks. The blowout win against the Panthers wasn’t too surprising I suppose, but they’re defense was a huge part of that win. Last week’s win over the Niners was pretty damn shocking. Atlanta QB Matt Ryan spammed the hell out of the Triangle-Button and threw the ball to WR Julio Jones twenty times. Jones caught 13 of those passes for 134 yards and two touchdowns. I expect a similar gameplan as the Falcons pass catchers are nearly all injured. The Jaguars pass defense was good early this season, but as I said before, it just appears that their defense has quit on head coach Doug Marrone for the second-straight season. I’m taking Atlanta to cover at home.

Cincinnati Bengals at Miami Dolphins (+1) – My pick is Miami Dolphins

Miami was an automatic ‘bet against’ early this season. They have turned into a pretty solid betting team as they have covered seven of their last ten games. The big reason for that is that they finally settled on starting QB Ryan Fitzpatrick. They are a much better team than their reputation casts. The Bengals are a bad team that doesn’t even cover games. I have to take the Dolphins in this one.

New Orleans Saints at Tennessee Titans (+2.5) – My pick is New Orleans Saints

This point spread should probably be a little higher since the Saints hold a couple big advantages on the Titans. New Orleans pass offense should do well against the Titans secondary and the Saints rush defense is much better than you think. The Titans pass defense started out hot, but they’ve been the weakest link in many of their games. Saints QB Drew Brees is really playing well and is coming off one of the best games of the season. The Saints should cover on the road. 

Carolina Panthers at Indianapolis Colts (-7) – My pick is Carolina Panthers

The Colts are a team running on fumes. They have been decimated by injuries on offense and they’ve turned into fairly predictable on that side of the ball. The Panthers are turning to rookie QB Will Grier and it’s a smart move. He has a big arm and he came from a pass-heavy offense at West Virginia. He is a talented passer and could have a pretty good debut against a team that is struggling right now. I don’t see the Colts having enough firepower to cover a touchdown point spread.

Pittsburgh Steelers at New York Jets (+3) – My pick is Pittsburgh Steelers

This one is a tough one to handicap since both teams are coming off bad losses. The Steelers saw QB Devlin Hodges throw four interceptions and the Jets were just trounced by the Ravens last Thursday. My guess is that the Steelers will try to reset on offense and attempt to run the ball a little more. They only ran the ball around a dozen times last week. It’s not like the game was out of hand and had to throw. They actually had the lead into the fourth quarter. Pittsburgh is also a strong road team this year. They are 3-1 ATS in their last four road games. I’m going to take the Steelers to cover on the road.

New York Giants at Washington Redskins (-2.5) – My pick is New York Giants

It looks like Giants QB Daniel Jones will be ready for this game. He has been practicing this week and has been taking more snaps with the first team squad. Backup QB Eli Manning had done an admirable job starting in place of Jones and I think he played well enough to earn a job elsewhere to battle for a starting quarterback position on another team. The Redskins have a hard time stopping the run and the Giants really need a big game from RB Saquon Barkley, as I don’t think Jones will be 100% in this game. Jones has some speed at the quarterback position and he may not be able to scramble as much due to his bum ankle. I also think the Giants getting back WR Sterling Shepard last week was a huge plus. I’m taking the points in this game.

Baltimore Ravens at Cleveland Browns (+10) – My pick is Baltimore Ravens

The Ravens have only lost two games outright all season. One of those was an early season 40-25 loss at home to the Browns. The trajectory of both teams went in opposite directions after the game. Cleveland has been a disappointment with a losing record and are 5-8-1 against the spread. The Ravens have won ten-straight games since the Browns loss. They’ve been on the good side of many blowouts thanks the probable MVP, Ravens QB Lamar Jackson. I believe with a win, the Ravens would clinch home-field advantage in the playoffs. They are just playing their best football right now and the Browns are going up against a pack of hungry Ravens. I’m taking Baltimore to cover at home.

Oakland Raiders at Los Angeles Chargers (-7) – My pick is Los Angeles Chargers

This might be a little controversial, but I think the Chargers could cover this touchdown point spread. The Raiders will be without RB Josh Jacobs and the Raiders pass defense is poor. The Chargers offense really kicks into the next gear when QB Philip Rivers can move the ball through the air. I’m sure a good portion of those will be to his running backs, and I like what they can do after the catch. I’m taking the Chargers to cover at home.

Detroit Lions at Denver Broncos (-6.5) – My pick is Denver Broncos

The Broncos are coming off the first defeat of the Drew Lock Era. The Chiefs made Lock look like a rookie out there as he connected on less than 50% of his passes. Denver also abandoned their running game, something that has been disastrous idea for them in the past. I expect Denver to get back on track and focus on the running game while adding Lock’s throwing ability when they are forced into passing downs. The Lions have a lot of third-stringers out there playing due to injuries and could struggle out of the gate. It looks like they could get RB Kerryon Johnson back for this game, but they may need a little more than him to contend in this game. I’m taking Denver to cover a thome.

Dallas Cowboys at Philadelphia Eagles (+1.5) – My pick is Dallas Cowboys

If the Cowboys win this game, they win the NFC East. If the Eagles win this game, they must win (or Cowboys loss) next week to clinch the NFC East. Philly did not expect to be in this position after a pretty below average season with some good play late in recent games. I would suggest that the Eagles are actually worse than their record. Their last two games have been wins, but they were against the Giants and Redskins, who have combined for six total wins. The Eagles are also 5-9 against the spread, which is another indicator of a team’s overall record. The Cowboys are coming off a dominant win against the Rams. They had two running backs with over 100 yards on the ground and they held Rams RB Todd Gurley to only 20 rushing yards. The Cowboys did struggle for a few games before their win against the Rams. You can’t forget that, but when was the last time the Redskins surprised you with a great performance? I think they will need a huge effort to be within the point spread in this game. I’m taking the Cowboys to cover on the road.

Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks (-10) – My pick is Arizona Cardinals

It’s been a long time since the Seahawks have covered anything close to a double-digit point spread. In fact, you’d have to go back to December of last season. It’s just not in their offensive scheme to really win by a ton. Once they get a lead, they tend to run the ball and just eat up the clock. The Seahawks know that they don’t have a dominant defense anymore, so they’ve been using their offense to help limit the other team’s offensive possessions. They are also now dealing with injuries to many of their stars on defense. The Cardinals are a decent team, but have only won four games this season. They are 8-5-1 against the spread, which does show that they stay within striking distance in most games. The Seahawks will most likely win at home, but I think they will be a couple points shy of covering this spread, so I’ll take the points.

Kansas City Chiefs at Chicago Bears (+6) – My pick is Kansas City Chiefs

The Chiefs have been a fairly consistent betting team over the last two seasons, but you have to take out the games after QB Patrick Mahomes injured his leg. The games after that injury were up and down, even the few games after he returned from the injury. I think it’s fair to say that he’s finally 100% after his last couple games. They are back to covering games with points to spare. The Bears have been a pretty bad betting team this season. They’ve went large stretches of games without a cover. They current sit 4-10 against the spread this year. I thought after their win over the Cowboys that they could be turning things around, but last week’s loss to the Packers changed my mind. They need another weapon or two on offense to hang with the better teams in the league. The Chiefs should go into Soldier Field and cover on Sunday night.

Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings (-5.5) – My pick is Green Bay Packers

The Packers have already clinched the NFC North, but they are still fighting for home-field advantage and a first-round bye is still up for grabs. The Vikings haven’t clinched a playoff spot yet, but they would clinch a Wild Card berth with a win or a Rams loss. This could be a tight battle between to probably playoff teams. These teams know each other well and home-field advantage usually holds well every year in their games. I think the Vikings are the better overall team, but the Packers will keep this one close. Vikings QB Kirk Cousins will need a big game against the Packers to cover this spread. He has been a little game manager-esque lately with his approach. He will need to make more risks to cover. I’m taking the points.

*These picks are for entertainment purposes

Sweetbob’s NFL picks against the spread record in previous seasons:
2013: 133-95-10
2014: 131-114-9
2015: 150-108-9
2016: 143-120-13
2017: 144-115-16
2018: 141-118-13
2019: 126-97-6

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About the Author…

Bobby Roberts (otherwise known as Sweetbob) is the creator of ‘America’s White Boy’ and contributor at Project Shanks. His writing has been featured on ESPN’s ‘SportsNation’, Sports Illustrated’s Hot Clicks, Guyspeed, and various other sites. You can follow him on Twitter at @Sweetbob