I finished 8-6 against the spread with my picks last week.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Carolina Panthers, Pittsburgh Steelers and Cleveland Browns are on byes this week. There are 14 NFL games on the betting schedule in Week 7.
There are still only two unbeaten teams left in the NFL. The Patriots and 49ers put their records on the line this week. As far as the winless teams go, one was eliminated last week when the Redskins by the Dolphins.We are now just left with the Dolphins and Bengals.
Will either winless team get their first dub this week?
We pick every NFL game against the spread and throw out a few upsets in Week 7 of the 2019 NFL season.
Kansas City Chiefs at Denver Broncos (+3) – My pick is Kansas City Chiefs
The Chiefs started off the year 4-0, but have lost back-to-back games. The Broncos started the year off 0-4 and won back-to-back games. I still think Denver is one of the weakest teams in the league, but they were able to sneak up on the Chargers and Titans. Denver needs their running game to rack up yards in order to win games. The Chiefs run defense is a little too relaxed, but I have faith in the Chiefs offense keeping up with the scores their defense will give up. Kansas City should right the ship on Thursday night and cover in Denver.
Jacksonville Jaguars at Cincinnati Bengals (+4) – My pick is Cincinnati Bengals
The Bengals are winless on the season, but they may have had one of the hardest schedules in football. Most of the six teams they’ve faced will most likely end the year over .500. The Jaguars have enjoyed one of the easier schedules this season. They just traded star cornerback Jalen Ramsey and morale might be a little low. Jaguars QB Gardner Minshew hasn’t been able to make a successful comeback in his last two games. In fact, his production in the Saints game was very poor. The Bengals defense is better than people think and should pressure Minshew. In order for the Bengals to stay in this game, they need a big game from RB Joe Mixon, who has disappeared in some games. I think Mixon will come through at home and keep this one close, so I’m taking the points.
Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills (-16.5) – My pick is Buffalo Bills
I might be in the minority with my pick here, but the Bills defense is just too fast for the Dolphins offense. Miami is expected to start QB Ryan Fitzpatrick and if he feels any pressure, he tends to make mistakes. The Bills offense is still a work in progress and is definitely flawed, but they may not need to score a lot to cover this spread. I was all-in on the Dolphins winning against the spread last week, but I don’t see it this week, so I’m taking the Bills to cover at home.
Los Angeles Rams at Atlanta Falcons (+3) – My pick is Los Angeles Rams
The Rams are hurting right now and have lost three-straight games. RB Todd Gurley is dealing with maladies that a 70-year-old man suffers from and CB Aqib Talib just landed on the IR. They also made moves by trading for CB Jalen Ramsey and shipping CB Marcus Peters to Baltimore. Luckily for the Rams, their passing weapons all appear to be healthy. The Falcons have a piss-poor pass defense and might be in the bottom-three in the entire league. I expect Rams QB Jared Goff to have a very nice game on Sunday and I’m taking the Rams to cover in Atlanta.
Oakland Raiders at Green Bay Packers (-6.5) – My pick is Oakland Raiders
This betting line is a bit of a brain bender. The Packers are 5-1 this season (4-2 ATS), but they haven’t exactly been destroying opponents. The Raiders have also been a middle-of-the-road team and haven’t really only had two games that wasn’t within shooting distance late in the fourth quarter. They are coming off a bye and a 24-21 win against the Bears in London. They are leaning on RB Josh Jacobs a little more every week. The Packers have struggled against good running backs and Jacobs could be the key for the Raiders to keep this game close. This game is a little too close to call, so I’m taking the points.
Houston Texans and Indianapolis Colts (-1) – My pick is Houston Texans
Both teams are coming off upset wins against the Kansas City Chiefs. The Colts had a bye week last week and hope to get some of their injured defensive players back this week. LB Darius Leonard is currently probable (concussion) and Safety Clayton Geathers is still questionable (concussion). They desperately need Geathers back since their other starting safety Malik Hooker is out with a knee injury. If they can’t get Geathers back, the Texans could dominate the passing game. The Colts will try to eat the clock with the running game, which worked against the Chiefs. This could be a letdown game for the Colts and I think Texans QB Deshaun Watson will have a good game, so I’m taking the point.
Arizona Cardinals at New York Giants (-3) – My pick is Arizona Cardinals
Believe it or not, but this is a highly-anticipated game. It pits the two-highest picked rookie quarterbacks against each other. Arizona QB Kyler Murray started off the year a bit rough (horrible first-half against Detroit), but he has been getting better and better. New York QB Daniel Jones started off hot, but has been humbled against the Vikings and Patriots. He should have better overall stats this week as he goes up against a bad Cardinals pass defense. These two teams are pretty evenly-matched and the -3 point spread is right on the money. The Cardinals are letting Murray work his magic more and he has the green light to take off with the ball. I think Murray will start to smoke Giants defenders late in the game and keep this one tight. I have to take the points.
San Francisco 49ers at Washington Redskins (+10) – My pick is San Francisco 49ers
For the record, I have been down on the Niners most of the year. They are undefeated on the season (4-1 ATS) and their defense and running game have been the two reasons why they are perfect on the year. I think they will win this game outright and I’m going to take the Niners to cover as well. I just think their defense is too good and the Redskins will struggle to keep up, even if the Niners only score 24 points in this game.
Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions (+1) – My pick is Minnesota Vikings
Did Minnesota fix their QB issues last week? Kirk Cousins was as accurate as ever and he was getting WR Stefon Diggs the ball often. If they can do every every week, they will be one of the best teams in the NFC. The Lions will try to pressure Cousins and they have decent corners to cover Diggs and Adam Thielen. The Vikings pass defense is one of the best in the NFL and if they can limit RB Kerryon Johnson, they should win this game…depending on if Cousins is still fixed. I am taking the Vikings to cover in Detroit.
Los Angeles Chargers at Tennessee Titans (-2) – My pick is Tennessee Titans
The Titans are starting QB Ryan Tannehill at quarterback. He was somewhat impressive when he replaced Mariota last week. He’s more accurate than Mariota, but can he do this against the Chargers? I know I picked against all the Titans wide receivers in my fantasy football picks, but I don’t have a ton of faith in the Chargers secondary. Tannehill will hopefully look deeper than his tight ends, something Mariota struggled doing at times. The Chargers are trying to use RB Melvin Gordon a bit too much and he’s clearly not in ‘football shape’ right now. If they can go back to just spamming RB Austin Ekeler the ball, maybe they can smoke the Titans, but I don’t think that will happen. This came will be close and I’m taking the home team here, so the Titans it is!
Baltimore Ravens at Seattle Seahawks (-3.5) – My pick is Seattle Seahawks
The public have bet the hell out of Ravens lines since QB Lamar Jackson smoked the Dolphins in Week 1. The Ravens have yet to cover a game since that game. I’m a big fan of the Seahawks even though they’ve been flying under the radar a bit this season. They are 5-1 this season (3-3 ATS), but all but one of their games have been within six points. They dug themselves a deep hole against the Browns last week, but came back and beat Cleveland by four points. That has been a theme for their season. I think the Seahawks defense will gameplan well against QB Lamar Jackson. He’s more similar to a college football spread quarterback than Seattle head coach Pete Carroll has seen since he left USC. Seattle is still a tough place to win and the Ravens will fall short…so I’m taking the Seahawks to cover at home.
New Orleans Saints at Chicago Bears (-3.5) – My pick is Chicago Bears
The Bears are coming off a bye week and it appears that QB Mitchell Trubisky will be back by Sunday. There’s no way he can be anywhere near 100% from a torn labrum/dislocated non-throwing shoulder. I don’t have huge faith in Saints QB Teddy Bridgewater either. He hasn’t really shown up in games against good defenses. The Saints also have a gimpy RB Alvin Kamara, who is dealing with a high-ankle/knee issue. This game could be a bit ugly on offense for both teams if injuries limit or completely rule out certain players. The Bears defense will look to force Bridgewater to throw bad passes and I think they will accomplish that feat. Chicago may not cover this point spread by a lot, but I think they will get the cover at home.
Philadelphia Eagles at Dallas Cowboys (-3) – My pick is Dallas Cowboys
The Cowboys come into this game on a three-game losing streak. People are putting the blame on QB Dak Prescott and their offensive coordinator. Last week’s two-point loss to the Jets really brought out the angst in Cowboys fans. The Eagles is the right team for the Cowboys to face this week. Philly’s secondary is coming off a dismantling from the Vikings. They made Vikings QB Kirk Cousins look like Tom Brady in his prime. I expect huge games from Dallas wide receiver Amari Cooper and Michael Gallup. I’m taking the Cowboys to cover on Sunday Night Football.
New England Patriots at New York Jets (+10) – My pick is New England Patriots
The Jets are coming off a big upset win over the Cowboys. QB Sam Darnold played his first game post-mono and looked pretty good. He brought much-needed life back into the Jets offense. The last time the Patriots and Jets played was back in Week 3. The Patriots only beat the Darnold-less Jets 30-14, but the Pats had a 30-0 lead in the third quarter. The Jets only scores were two defensive scores in garbage time. I can’t imagine the Jets will score more than 14 points again, but this time it will probably be from the offense. The Patriots are usually an automatic 24-point team and this seems like a lock. I’m taking the Patriots to cover at home on Monday Night Football.
*These picks are for entertainment purposes
Sweetbob’s NFL picks against the spread record in previous seasons:
2013: 133-95-10
2014: 131-114-9
2015: 150-108-9
2016: 143-120-13
2017: 144-115-16
2018: 141-118-13
2019: 49-43-0
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About the Author…
Bobby Roberts (otherwise known as Sweetbob) is the creator of ‘America’s White Boy’ and contributor at Project Shanks. His writing has been featured on ESPN’s ‘SportsNation’, Sports Illustrated’s Hot Clicks, Guyspeed, and various other sites. You can follow him on Twitter at @Sweetbob