I went 8-8 against the spread last week.
I may have went .500 last week, but I did personally benefit from Raiders and Dolphins moneyline bets. I didn’t bet a ton on those underdog moneylines, but it put me in the black for the weekend.
It’s time to start figuring out if a team still has anything left to play for this season. All the potential playoff teams haven’t clinched a specific seed yet, so there aren’t any that are resting their guys (but it could happen next week).
Also, teams like the Raiders, who will not benefit from a win, are still playing hard (see: last week’s win). Don’t automatically go against a team that you feel is tanking. There are 53 guys on that team still playing for another paycheck next season.
We pick every NFL game against the spread and throw out a few upsets in Week 15 of the 2018 NFL season.
Los Angeles Chargers at Kansas City Chiefs (-3.5) – My pick is Kansas City Chiefs
This game will help decide the AFC West title. If the Chiefs win, they win the AFC West, but if the Chargers win, they need a little more help. Both teams are expected to be in the playoffs (Chiefs have already clinched a berth). The Chiefs escaped in overtime last week and their offense was a little weaker without RB Kareem Hunt. They are still talented as hell and they were facing a tough Ravens defense. The Chargers have their own running back issues with both RB Melvin Gordon and RB Austin Ekeler dealing with injuries that could keep them out on Thursday. This could be a tight game, but I’m going with the Chiefs to cover.
Houston Texans at New York Jets (+6) – My pick is Houston Texans
The Jets have turnover issues and the Texans are really good at forcing them. It could be a really long game for Jets rookie QB Sam Darnold. The Texans should rebound from last week’s stinker against the Colts. I’m taking Houston to cover on the road.
Cleveland Browns at Denver Broncos (-3) – My pick is Denver Broncos
Both teams come into this game winning three out of their last four games out right. The Broncos have been riding rookie RB Phillip Lindsay and their pass rush while the Browns have been letting their youth push the offense. Cleveland isn’t a good road team and struggles against a good pass rush. This could be a tight game, but the extra pressure on Browns rookie QB Baker Mayfield should seal the cover for the Broncos at home.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Baltimore Ravens (-7.5) – My pick is Baltimore Ravens
I’m a huge believer in the Ravens defense. As long as Ravens rookie QB Lamar Jackson doesn’t turn the ball over much, they should cover at home. The offense just has more confidence with the young quarterback under center. The extra half-point is a little troublesome, but I’m still taking the Ravens to cover at home.
Oakland Raiders at Cincinnati Bengals (-2.5) – My pick is Cincinnati Bengals
As much as it kills me to lay a single dime on QB Jeff Driskel, there’s value in betting on Cincinnati at home. The Raiders pulled off a huge upset last week against the Steelers, who suck on the West Coast. I don’t think any of that momentum will carry over this week. Oakland really don’t want to win another game this year as they are building towards the draft. I’m taking the Bengals to cover at home.
Detroit Lions at Buffalo Bills (-2.5) – My pick is Detroit Lions
The Lions have fallen quite a bit since the start of the season. They are now underdogs against the lowly Bills. Detroit is still good enough to beat the bad teams, but they don’t have the offensive weapons to hang with the top-20 teams in the NFL. I’m taking the points in this game.
Dallas Cowboys at Indianapolis Colts (-3) – My pick is Dallas Cowboys
The Cowboys are on a roll since acquiring WR Amari Cooper from the Raiders. The entire Cowboys offense is playing well and their defense is no slouch either. This should be an entertaining game, but I don’t trust the Colts running game against the Cowboys front-seven. The Cowboys may even win this game outright, so I’m taking the points.
Tennessee Titans at New York Giants (-2.5) – My pick is Tennessee Titans
The Giants struggle against good defenses…and the Titans have a very underrated defense. If Tennessee can get a prolific running attack (like they did last week), they should run away with this game. I don’t trust Giants QB Eli Manning against the Titans pass defense, so I’m taking the points.
Miami Dolphins at Minnesota Vikings (-7) – My pick is Minnesota Vikings
The Vikings have had a rough two-game stretch on the road. They didn’t look very good against either the Seahawks or Patriots. Their offense stalled out and they changed their offensive coordinator. The Dolphins are coming off a huge last-second win against the Patriots and they are due for a letdown. Miami isn’t a good road team and the Vikings should cover at home.
Arizona Cardinals at Atlanta Falcons (-8.5) – My pick is Atlanta Falcons
This game is bowling shoe ugly. The Cardinals might be the worst team in the league and the Falcons have under-performed since starting out the season pretty well. Neither team have been very good against the spread, but the Falcons really need a huge win here for the coaches to keep their jobs. If they lay a stinker against the Cardinals, the coaching staff is doomed.
Green Bay Packers at Chicago Bears (-6) – My pick is Chicago Bears
The Bears are playing really well and winning games by grinding teams down with their defense. Their win last week against the Rams wasn’t pretty, but it was huge. The Packers have nothing left to play for and they are 0-6 on the road this season. QB Aaron Rodgers isn’t turning the ball over, but the offense isn’t making many big plays. You can be an ‘okay’ team by completing short passes, but in order to be a playoff contender, your playmakers must break open a few plays a game…and the Packers aren’t doing that.
Washington Redskins at Jacksonville Jaguars (-7) – My pick is Jacksonville Jaguars
Both teams are down in the dumps right now. The Redskins were looking good until QB Alex Smith went down. They are now down to their third or fourth quarterback, depending who they decide to start this week. The Jaguars have a lot of talent on defense, but their offense hasn’t carried the load. Hell, their defense is now playing deflated. I’m taking the Jags to cover at home against the battered Redskins.
Seattle Seahawks at San Francisco 49ers (+4) – My pick is Seattle Seahawks
Seattle is playing well and look like a playoff team. Their defense is clinching games and they actually have a pass rush for the first time in a few seasons. Also, their running game now has depth for the first time since RB Marshawn Lynch ‘retired’. The Niners are struggling and are now dealing with some injuries in the backfield. I don’t think they have enough weapons to hang with the Seahawks right now. I’m taking the Seahawks to cover on the road.
New England Patriots at Pittsburgh Steelers (+2) – My pick is New England Patriots
The Patriots were wounded last week by the last-second defeat in Miami, but it shouldn’t last long. The Steelers have been getting killed by slot receivers all season and the Patriots are loaded with them. It could be a close game, but the Patriots just do everything well that the Steelers can’t defend.
Philadelphia Eagles at Los Angeles Rams (-11) – My pick is Los Angeles Rams
The Eagles aren’t on the same level as the Rams. I’m sure many think less of the Rams after they were broken by the Bears defense last week, but they will get back on track on Sunday night. The Eagles don’t have the weapons on offense to answer the Rams firepower.
New Orleans Saints at Carolina Panthers (+6) – My pick is New Orleans Saints
The Panthers have been very disappointing this season. They have a few nice pieces to build around like RB Christian McCaffrey and WR D.J. Moore, but I worry about QB Cam Newton’s long-term job security. The Panthers now have weapons on offense and Newton’s mediocre quarterback skills are being noticed even more. The Saints should be able to cover this spread in Carolina.
*These picks are for entertainment purposes
Sweetbob’s NFL picks against the spread record in previous seasons:
2013: 133-95-10
2014: 131-114-9
2015: 150-108-9
2016: 143-120-13
2017: 144-115-16
2018: 105-91-12
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About the Author…
Bobby Roberts (otherwise known as Sweetbob) is the creator of ‘America’s White Boy’ and contributor at Project Shanks. His writing has been featured on ESPN’s ‘SportsNation’, Sports Illustrated’s Hot Clicks, Guyspeed, and various other sites. You can follow him on Twitter at @Sweetbob