I went 10-3 against the spread last week.
I started the year off pretty bland, but I’m getting a better feel for the teams now. I just had to adjust my rankings a bit. Also, the half-point losses were a killer early this season. I’ve been on the right side of those the last three weeks.
Which teams are tanking for a draft pick? The Raiders, Browns, Giants and Bills are making a run to the bottom of the league. You could make a case that all but one of those teams are in the market for a talented young quarterback.
Should tanking affect your betting strategy? Yes, but it’s a little too early to hold that against most teams…but the Raiders are definitely tanking right now.
We pick every NFL game against the spread and throw out a few upsets in Week 10 of the 2018 NFL season.
Carolina Panthers at Pittsburgh Steelers (-3.5) – My pick is Pittsburgh Steelers
The Panthers and Steelers both come into the game with winning streaks. Both teams have also covered in numerous games in a row. The Steelers have been a very good team at home with a balanced offense. Steelers RB James Conner keeps making fans in Pittsburgh forget about Le’Veon Bell. He has been a huge part of this winning streak. I’m not sure the Panthers are up to the task on the road. Carolina may have trouble running the ball against the Steelers, which would really kill the Panthers offense. I’m taking the Steelers to cover at home.
Washington Redskins at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3) – My pick is Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The Bucs defense keeps disappointing fans. Their offense is right up there among the best in the league, but they are just giving up too many points. Tampa Bay just needs to score roughly 40 points a game to put them in a position to win the game. Luckily this week, the Redskins offense may not be prepared to win a shootout. They have a slow offense and may not be able to use Tampa Bay’s weak pass defense to hurt the Bucs. I’m taking Tampa Bay to cover.
Detroit Lions at Chicago Bears (-6.5) – My pick is Chicago Bears
The Lions did not look very good in their first game without WR Golden Tate. QB Matthew Stafford missed his safety net when he needed a completion for a first down. The Bears have a stout defense and should pressure Stafford into making some poor decisions. The Lions aren’t a doormat, but I’m taking the Bears to cover at home.
Arizona Cardinals at Kansas City Chiefs (-16.5) – My pick is Kansas City Chiefs
I’m not a fan of betting on double-digit point spreads in the NFL, but the Cardinals are pretty darn bad. The Cardinals have been smoked by at least 17 points three times this season. The Chiefs should be able to run circles around the Cardinals on Sunday, so I’m taking Kansas City to cover at Arrowhead.
Atlanta Falcons at Cleveland Browns (+4) – My pick is Atlanta Falcons
The Falcons have finally put everything together and are on a three-game winning streak. They pounced on Washington, and the Redskins defense isn’t bad at all. Atlanta QB Matt Ryan is having one of his best seasons, and definitely a bounce-back year from his average 2017 performance. The Browns might be playing for a draft pick at this point. I did like they decided to use RB Duke Johnson more than the previous head coach. The Browns aren’t quite on the Falcons level right now.
New Orleans Saints at Cincinnati Bengals (+5.5) – My pick is New Orleans Saints
Man, I’m picking a bunch of covers this week. It does make you re-think your strategy a bit, but it shouldn’t. Just make the bets based on your information and don’t worry about witnessing a trend with your picks. The Bengals are without WR A.J. Green for a few weeks and QB Andy Dalton will miss his best target. The Saints are coming off their biggest win of the season by knocking off the previously-unbeaten Rams. New Orleans are the best team in the league right now and shouldn’t have much issue covering against an A.J. Green-less Bengals.
New England Patriots at Tennessee Titans (+6.5) – My pick is Tennessee Titans
The Patriots have won six-straight games after starting the season 1-2. They had a few close games during their streak. The Bears and Chiefs tested New England up until the final minutes. The Patriots haven’t faced a defense as good as the Titans since Week 2, when they lost to the Jaguars. The Titans offense isn’t very good, but they will give Patriots QB Tom Brady some difficult looks. The Patriots will most likely win the game, but I’m taking the points in this contest.
Jacksonville Jaguars at Indianapolis Colts (-3) – My pick is Jacksonville Jaguars
It appears that Jaguars RB Leonard Fournette is set to return against the Colts. A nagging hamstring injury has kept him on the sidelines for most of the season. He is exactly what the Jaguars need to get their season back on track. The Colts are a pretty average team and I’m not sure they can deal with a healthy Fournette. The Jags defense needs a little help their offense and should get it this week, so I’m taking the points.
Buffalo Bills at New York Jets (-7) – My pick is New York Jets
Welp, Bills QB Nathan Peterman really shit the bed last week. He is creeping into ‘worst NFL quarterback in history’ territory with another turnover-heavy start. The Bills haven’t named a starter this week, but my guess is that they will wheel QB Derek Anderson out there. The Jets aren’t horrible, but they are dealing with a turnover issue as well. Jets rookie QB Sam Darnold leads the league in interceptions…and their wide receiver injury issues are reducing his available targets. This one could be close to the spread, but I have to take the Jets here.
Los Angeles Chargers at Oakland Raiders (+10) – My pick is Los Angeles Chargers
The Chargers are on a five-game winning streak and are 3-2 against the spread in those games. They are coming off a pretty big win in Seattle, but their previous four wins were all against poor competition. The last time the Chargers faced the Raiders was in early-October and won 26-10. The Raiders are even worse now. They are coming off a loss last Thursday that turned a free agent rookie quarterback (Nick Mullens) into Joe freakin’ Namath. Oakland is gunning for the #1 pick in the 2019 NFL Draft, so I’m taking the talented Chargers to cover on the road.
Miami Dolphins at Green Bay Packers (-10) – My pick is Miami Dolphins
The Packers have lost their last two games, but they were against two of the best teams in the league (Rams & Patriots). Green Bay isn’t as good as previous years, but they are far from bad. This line is a tad inflated since the Packers have only beat an opponent by double-digits once this season (22-0 vs Buffalo in Week 4). I don’t think the Packers have the kind of firepower (and defense) that can extend a lead to double-digits against the Dolphins. Miami is a below average team, but are coming off a win against the Jets. They forced four interceptions in the game. They haven’t been very good against the spread since starting the year 3-0 ATS. I still think they can hang with the Packers and keep their loss within single-digits, so I’m taking the points.
Seattle Seahawks at Los Angeles Rams (-10) – My pick is Seattle Seahawks
This is the most difficult betting line of the week. The Rams are coming off their first loss of the season and the Seahawks were just beaten at home by the Chargers. The Rams should win, but I find it hard to believe that they will do it by this large of a margin. The Seahawks have fixed their offensive line issues and the Rams pass rush is questionable at best. Seattle may need a garbage-time score to keep it within single-digits. I’m still taking the points.
Dallas Cowboys at Philadelphia Eagles (-7.5) – My pick is Dallas Cowboys
Both teams have a shiny new toy at wider receiver. The Cowboys traded for WR Amari Cooper and the Eagles pulled of a trade late for WR Golden Tate. They should make each team much better. The Cowboys and Eagles are both on the same tier of teams in the NFC. They aren’t at the level as the Saints and Rams, but they are right there in the second-tier with five or six other teams that all could be potential playoff teams. The Eagles will have a hard time extending a lead. They have only allowed RB Saquon Barkley to gain much on the ground, but they haven’t faced many talented running backs. Cowboys RB Ezekiel Elliott will keep Dallas within striking distance, so I’m taking the points.
New York Giants at San Francisco 49ers (-3) – My pick is New York Giants
The NFL must love Niners QB Nick Mullens right now. This Monday Night Football game was sure to be a bust until the rookie came out of nowhere last Thursday night. The Niners were among the worst teams in the league before that game. I also believe Mullens will turn into a pumpkin by the start of this game. The Giants are a bad team, but they have superstars at a few different positions. Guys like RB Saquon Barkley and WR Odell Beckham Jr. should be the difference in this game, so I’m taking the points.
*These picks are for entertainment purposes
Sweetbob’s NFL picks against the spread record in previous seasons:
2013: 133-95-10
2014: 131-114-9
2015: 150-108-9
2016: 143-120-13
2017: 144-115-16
2018: 67-59-8
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About the Author…
Bobby Roberts (otherwise known as Sweetbob) is the creator of ‘America’s White Boy’ and contributor at Project Shanks. His writing has been featured on ESPN’s ‘SportsNation’, Sports Illustrated’s Hot Clicks, Guyspeed, and various other sites. You can follow him on Twitter at @Sweetbob