I finished 15-9-1 against the spread last week.
The college football playoff picture is more in focus after some big games last week. Georgia is basically on their way to the SEC Championship game after beating Kentucky. Also, Alabama made a huge statement in their shutout win against LSU.
There are some big Big Ten games this week with both Penn State and Ohio State having big games that could alter the conference title game picture.
We at ‘America’s White Boy’ pick 25 college football games against the spread in Week 11 of the 2018-19 NCAA Football season (November, 10th, 2018). We also pick some smaller conference games.
Ohio State at Michigan State (+3.5) – My pick is Ohio State Buckeyes
We can all say that Ohio State was overrated going into the year. They are 8-1 outright, but only 3-6 against the spread. They haven’t won against the spread in their last five games. The market is about to be corrected on Saturday. Michigan State is another team that hasn’t been good against the spread, but have covered three out of their last four games. The Buckeyes should go into East Lansing and cover against the Spartans.
TCU at West Virginia (-11.5) – My pick is West Virginia Mountaineers
TCU bounced back last week with a 14-13 win at home versus Kansas State. It snapped a three-game losing streak, with one of those games was a loss at Kansas (yikes). West Virginia has only lost one game this year (at Iowa State) and is 5-2-1 against the spread. QB Will Grier is a legit Heisman hopeful and could keep his name in the conversation with a big win here. TCU’s defense hasn’t been good. The Mountaineers should cover at home.
Wisconsin at Penn State (-9) – My pick is Wisconsin Badgers
Last Saturday, Penn State was embarrassed by Michigan 42-7. They humbled QB Trace McSorley and no one on the team played very well. The Wolverines got out to a big lead and then the ran the ball down Penn State’s throats. They may have lost their swagger. Wisconsin lost their swagger in Week 3 and have been up and down since. The only good Big Ten team the Badgers have beaten is Iowa. This is an interesting game and think Wisconsin can keep it close. Penn State could struggle to cover this spread, so I’m taking the points.
Purdue at Minnesota (+12) – My pick is Purdue Boilermakers
Purdue bounced back after losing to Michigan, with a big win over Iowa. Purdue QB David Blough threw for four touchdowns and 333 yards. The Boilermakers will need to rely on their running game against Minnesota, who struggle mightily against the run. They will need senior running backs D.J. Knox and Markell Jones to punish the Gophers front-seven. I don’t see Minnesota being able to stop Purdue too often, so I’m taking the Boilermakers to cover.
Kentucky at Tennessee (+5.5) – My pick is Kentucky Wildcats
I never like Kentucky against the top SEC teams, but Tennessee is right on their level. The Wildcats defense should be able to limit the Volunteers offense. Kentucky is a bit one-dimensional on offense, but they can throw it when needed. I know Tennessee it a trendy pick here, but I’m taking Kentucky to cover.
South Florida at Cincinnati (-14) – My pick is Cincinnati Bearcats
Cincinnati has been one of the best stories of the season. We knew that their offense would be good, but their defense is winning some close game for them. They have been running over teams with their ground game, and South Florida struggles against good running teams. Also, the Bulls are limping into this game after suffering a 41-15 loss to freakin’ Tulane, in a game they were favored to win by six points. I’m taking Cincinnati to cover at home.
Florida State at Notre Dame (-16.5) – My pick is Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Florida State can’t compete with good teams. They struggle even more when on the road. They are coming off a 19-point loss at NC State. Notre Dame keeps winning games and are 4-1-1 against the spread in their last six games. The Irish is just on a different level than a very average Seminoles team.
Oregon State at Stanford (-24) – My pick is Oregon State Beavers
The Stanford Cardinal have lost four of their last five games. They were only 2-3 against the spread in those games. Their biggest win this season was a 21-point Week 3 win over San Diego State. Stanford has also played down to their opponents level many times. Oregon State is one of the worst teams in the Pac-12, but I find it hard to believe that Stanford can cover this large of a spread, even if it is at home. I’m taking the points.
Clemson at Boston College (+20) – My pick is Clemson Tigers
Clemson is crazy hot and have been smoking teams on both sides of the ball. They have defeated teams by 59, 49, 34 and 60 points in their last four games. Boston College is a good team, but not on Clemson’s league. A Clemson vs Alabama CFP Final appears to be the road we are headed. I’m taking Clemson to cover on the road.
UL Monroe at South Alabama (+6.5) – My pick is UL Monroe Warhawks
This is where we pick a smaller conference game. UL Monroe has an offense that bad teams can’t hang with, but a defense that good teams can smoke. Fortunately for the Warhawks, they face South Alabama on Saturday, who have lost five out of their last six games (and have lost each of those games by double-digits. The Warhawks should be able to cover on the road.
QUICK HITS
Navy at UCF (-24.5) – My pick is UCF
San Jose State at Utah State (-31) – My pick is Utah State
Washington State at Colorado (+6) – My pick is Washington State
Appalachian State at Texas State (+20.5) – My pick is Appalachian State
Oklahoma State at Oklahoma (-21) – My pick is Oklahoma State
Troy at Georgia Southern (+1.5) – My pick is Georgia Southern
Akron at Eastern Michigan (-12.5) – My pick is Akron
Maryland at Indiana (-1) – My pick is Indiana
Fresno State at Boise State (+2.5) – My pick is Fresno State
Colorado State at Nevada (-14) – My pick is Nevada
BONUS PICKS!
California at USC (-5) – My pick is USC
LSU at Arkansas (+13.5) – My pick is LSU
Texas at Texas Tech (+2) – My pick is Texas Tech
Temple at Houson (-5) – My pick is Houston
Auburn at Georgia (-14) – My pick is Georgia
Sweetbob’s college football picks against the spread record in previous seasons:
2013: 134-79-8
2014: 148-118-4
2015: 149-118-3
2016: 196-145-6
2017: 183-159-13
2018: 127-116-4