I went 7-7-1 against the spread last week.

I nearly had a heart attack after whiffing on most of the early games last week. I came back and made it back to even after nailing the late games and the Monday night game.

I decided to focus on home underdogs this week. They have been paying pretty well this year and I’ve missed on some this year. I’ve also been underrating defense. It’s easy to do since there are so many excellent offenses in the NFL.

We pick ever NFL game against the spread and throw out a few upsets in Week 6 of the 2018 NFL season.

Philadelphia Eagles at New York Giants (+3) – My pick is New York Giants

The Eagles and Giants know each other well. The Eagles have won three out of their last four contests outright, but the Giants are 3-1 against the spread. Neither team is playing their best right now. The Eagles have an attrition issue at running back and their secondary isn’t holding to their end of the deal. The Giants will have a huge advantage with their wide receivers against the Eagles pass defense. Giants QB Eli Manning actually performs well against the Eagles and this game could be close, so I’m taking the points.

Indianapolis Colts at New York Jets (-2.5) – My pick is Indianapolis Colts

The Jets are coming off a pretty thorough beating of the Denver Broncos. They relied heavily on the running game with Isaiah Crowell and Bilal Powell which combined for over 300 rushing yards. Most of that work was them running down the clock, but the pair was successful all day. The Jets secondary started the season on fire, but recently, quarterbacks have been able to move the ball against them. The Colts are a one-dimensional team and QB Andrew Luck needs to move the ball for the Colts to keep this close. He has a knack for keeping games close and is the king of garbage time covers. As long as the Colts run defense can handle Crowell/Powell, they should limit the Jets scoring drives. I’m taking the points.

Carolina Panthers at Washington Redskins (-1) – My pick is Carolina Panthers

The Panthers may not be scoring a ton of points, but I don’t trust the Redskins ability to score points. Running backs Adrian Peterson and Chris Thompson both suffered injuries last Monday night and their statuses are still up in the air. Also, tight end Vernon Davis and wide receiver Josh Doctson are banged up as well. Washington QB Alex Smith doesn’t have much left. On the flip side, the Panthers appear to be getting back TE Greg Olsen, arguably QB Cam Newton’s favorite target. I just don’t trust Washington’s banged up offense this week, so I’m taking the points (aka Carolina moneyline).

Seattle Seahawks at Oakland Raiders (+3) – My pick is Seattle Seahawks

The Raiders are a deeply flawed team. Head coach Jon Gruden is playing the long game and knew this year would be pretty bad. He traded star Khalil Mack for future picks and he hopes it will pay off in the long game. The Raiders should probably be 0-5 at this point, but due to poor officiating, they won an overtime game against the Browns. The Seahawks have their own issues, but it’s mostly their offensive line. QB Russell Wilson isn’t getting much time to think, let alone have his receivers run more than ten-yard routes. He has to get the ball out of his fast and it is somewhat working. They are only 2-3 on the season, but had a close 33-31 loss against arguably the NFL’s most complete team (Rams). I’m taking Seattle to cover in their shortest travel for a road game this season.

Arizona Cardinals at Minnesota Vikings (-10) – My pick is Minnesota Vikings

Arizona won their first game last week, but it was against the Niners. San Francisco is just a different team without QB Jimmy Garoppolo. I’m not sure what one could take from that game other than RB David Johnson woke up a bit. Last week, the Vikings won their first game since Week 1. They still don’t have much of a running game due to some injuries, but their passing attack was good enough to beat the Eagles. I’m betting that Vikings QB Kirk Cousins will do the same this week and the Vikings defense finally correct their issues and stuff the Cardinals. This is a large point spread, but I feel good about the Vikings covering this at home.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Atlanta Falcons (-3.5) – My pick is Atlanta Falcons

The Bucs started off well, but their pass defense is becoming too big of an issue. They can’t rely on them to stop anyone, especially a passing attack as good as the Falcons. I wouldn’t be surprised if QB Matt Ryan has an insane fantasy output this weekend. I’m taking the Falcons to cover at home.

Los Angeles Chargers at Cleveland Browns (+1) – My pick is Los Angeles Chargers

The Browns could easily be 5-0 right now, but they are currently 2-2-1 (4-1 ATS). They are an improved team, especially on defense. Starting rookie QB Baker Mayfield was another huge improvement. They are a better team than they were in Week 1. That being said, the Chargers is among the top tier of teams in the NFL. Their offense is more dynamic and love the way they use running backs Melvin Gordon and Austin Ekeler. The Chargers also have big receivers that will have an advantage over the Browns secondary. This could easily be another close game, but the Chargers offense is good enough to neutralize the Browns pass defense.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Cincinnati Bengals (-2.5) – My pick is Pittsburgh Steelers

The Steelers have won their last six meetings against the Bengals. Cincinnati QB Andy Dalton has only thrown for more than 234 yards just once in their last six meetings. The Steelers have had his number. I don’t see the Bengals winning this game if they can’t get much out of him. The Steelers have their own issues, but I’m easily taking the points in this game (and the moneyline might be a smart play).

Buffalo Bills at Houston Texans (-10) – My pick is Buffalo Bills

Texans QB Deshaun Watson suffered an injury to his chest in their win over the Cowboys last week. He said he will definitely play this week, but you have to factor in the injury when deciding your bet. They are 2-3 on the season with their two wins came in the last two weeks in overtime games. The Bills have had their issues this year, but are a better team with a healthy LeSean McCoy. I’m not a huge fan of Buffalo rookie QB Josh Allen, but as long as he limits mistakes, I think they keep this within ten points, so I’m taking Buffalo.

Chicago Bears at Miami Dolphins (+3) – My pick is Chicago Bears

The Bears are coming off a bye week and are on a three-game winning streak. The Dolphins are limping into this game with back-to-back losses against the Patriots and Bengals. The Bears aren’t a perfect team, but they have less flaws than the Dolphins, who desperately miss WR Jarvis Landry. Miami QB Ryan Tannehill just doesn’t have the weapons to be very effective. The Dolphins secondary has struggled against good passing attacks and I like the new Bears offense. Bears QB Mitchell Trubisky has been playing like a seasoned vet the last couple games. I’m take the Bears to cover on the road.

Los Angeles Rams at Denver Broncos (+7) – My pick is Los Angeles Rams

The Rams are the most complete team in the NFL and the Broncos weren’t able to handle the darn Jets last week. Denver is a better team at home, but I don’t think they can answer the Rams on either side of the ball. I’m taking the rams to cover in Denver.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Dallas Cowboys (+3) – My pick is Dallas Cowboys

The Jaguars are limping into this game. They had to sign free agent RB Jamaal Charles to suit up more than one running back this week. Jacksonville QB Blake Bortles played like garbage last week in their loss against the Chiefs. I don’t think he can pass it more than 25 times and still win this game. The Cowboys aren’t a bad team, but haven’t played some tough teams on the road. They have won both of their home games so far this year. The Cowboys will rely heavily on RB Ezekiel Elliott and keep this one close…and they may even win this game outright.

Baltimore Ravens at Tennessee Titans (+2.5) – My pick is Tennessee Titans

This one is a bit tricky. Both teams have been a tad better than expected this season. I’ve went back and forth between the teams. I believe I need to give a slight edge in this game to the Titans defense. They have kept games close, even though the Titans offense hasn’t been very consistent. The Ravens offense is good when QB Joe Flacco has time to make smart decisions…and the Titans will put pressure on him. I’m taking the points.

Kansas City Chiefs at New England Patriots (-3.5) – My pick is Kansas City Chiefs

New England head coach Bill Belichick is very unkind to young quarterbacks, especially the first time he faces them. He tends to gameplan to take away one of the opposing team’s biggest weapons. Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes has been on fire this year and it will take a creative gameplan to ruin his hot streak. The Patriots have a lot of weapons on offense, but I worry about their defense. This could be a close game and I have to take the points.

San Francisco 49ers at Green Bay Packers (-9.5) – My pick is Green Bay Packers

The Niners aren’t a very good team without the injured QB Jimmy Garoppolo. It’s almost like the offensive line has given up…and it doesn’t help that QB C.J. Beathard holds onto the ball a little too long. The Packers defense may eat him alive. I’m all-in on the Packers on Monday Night Football.

*These picks are for entertainment purposes

Sweetbob’s NFL picks against the spread record in previous seasons:
2013: 133-95-10
2014: 131-114-9
2015: 150-108-9
2016: 143-120-13
2017: 144-115-16
2018: 35-37-6

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About the Author…

Bobby Roberts (otherwise known as Sweetbob) is the creator of ‘America’s White Boy’ and contributor at Project Shanks. His writing has been featured on ESPN’s ‘SportsNation’, Sports Illustrated’s Hot Clicks, Guyspeed, and various other sites. You can follow him on Twitter at @Sweetbob