I went 5-8 last week against the spread. It was my first week this season that I was under .500 picking NFL games against the spread. Who the hell thought Blaine Gabbert would win an NFL game as a starting quarterback?
Can the New York Giants play the role of the party pooper once again and end New England’s perfect season?
We pick every NFL game against the spread and throw out a few upsets in Week 10 of the 2015 NFL season.
Buffalo Bills at New York Jets (-2.5) – My pick is Buffalo Bills
Rex Ryan is drooling at the thought of playing the Jets at MetLife Stadium. The Bills were finally able to play at some-what full strength last week. Tyrod Taylor was accurate, LeSean McCoy dominated and Sammy Watkins shredded Miami’s secondary. The Jets are much better than last season, but the Bills will be more motivated. Also, I like to take the points on Thursdays, since they’ve been sloppy.
Miami Dolphins at Philadelphia Eagles (-6.5) – My pick is Philadelphia Eagles
I went back and forth with this pick. The Eagles lost rookie MLB Jordan Hicks for the season. He has been a leader on the defense so far this season. The Dolphins have been getting killed by AFC East opponents, but they’ve played pretty well against non-division teams. I’m picking the Eagles due to the Dolphins piss-poor run defense against the Bills last week. Philly will tire-out Miami’s hogs up front.
Cleveland Browns at Pittsburgh Steelers (-5) – My pick is Pittsburgh Steelers
I’d never thought I’d say this, but if Josh McCown was 100% healthy, I’d probably pick Cleveland. McCown had an awesome month-long stretch that gave Cleveland a shot at keeping the game close. Steelers will be without Big Ben again. DeAngelo Williams filled in admirably for Le’Veon Bell last week. Antonio Brown also destroyed Oakland’s secondary. I’m taking the Steelers in this one.
Jacksonville Jaguars at Baltimore Ravens (-5.5) – My pick is Jacksonville Jaguars
Baltimore and Jacksonville are both 2-6 on the year. Jacksonville is improved, but they need to stop turning the ball over. Baltimore should have a better record, but fell short in the 4th quarter in a few games. Baltimore is banged up and Jacksonville could sneak up on them.
Detroit Lions at Green Bay Packers (-12) – My pick is Green Bay Packers
The Lions have been really, really bad this year. I surely didn’t expect it. Their defense is a joke. Green Bay hasn’t looked very good lately and this game comes at a perfect time. This line is a few points higher than I like, but the Lions are THAT bad right now. Give me the Packers at home.
Dallas Cowboys at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-1) – My pick is Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Jameis Winston doesn’t have the flashy numbers many thought were possible, but he’s not turning the ball over…at all. He hasn’t thrown an interception since Week 4 and Tampa is 2-2 since. Dallas has an awesome offensive line and a few playmakers on each side of the ball, but without Tony Romo, they are just flat. I don’t see them winning game until Romo is back on the field.
Chicago Bears at St. Louis Rams (-1) – My pick is St. Louis Rams
This game will be really close. I consider this a ‘coin flip game’. One turnover could essentially win the game. The Bears have been a changed team since they were shutout at Seattle in Week 3. St. Louis signed Wes Welker to help their stagnant passing game. They need something through the air to free up Todd Gurley, since teams are stacking the box. I’m taking the Rams since they have more playmakers on defense.
Carolina Panthers at Tennessee Titans (+6) – My pick is Carolina Panthers
Yes, Marcus Mariota had a fantastic game against New Orleans last week…but so has nearly every other quarterback this season. Carolina’s secondary is much, much better. I don’t expect the Titans to score much, so being a six-point favorite on the road doesn’t scare me. I’m taking Carolina on the road.
Minnesota Vikings at Oakland Raiders (-3) – My pick is Oakland Raiders
The Vikings are on a four-game winning streak. They are also 7-1 ATS this season. Oakland also has a good record ATS at 5-3. The Raiders offense has kept them in games. If this becomes a shootout, I don’t know if Minnesota has the weapons to hang with Oakland. For that reason, I’m taking the Raiders to cover at home.
Kansas City Chiefs at Denver Broncos (-6) – My pick is Kansas City Chiefs
Many wrote off Kansas City after Jamaal Charles went down with an injury, but their running game is still very strong. They are now rested coming off a bye week. Denver lost an emotional game against Indy last week. I like the Chiefs in this game. I’m taking the points.
New England Patriots at New York Giants (+7.5) – My pick is New York Giants
The Patriots and the Giants have become rivals after New York ended New England’s perfect season. They could do it a little earlier this year. I think New England will probably still win, but they could struggle after losing Dion Lewis for the season. They don’t have another running back that is that elusive after the catch. I’m taking the points.
Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks (-3) – My pick is Arizona Cardinals
Seattle swept the series against Arizona last year. The Seahawks offense hasn’t been as consistent this year. Arizona is better than last year. Seattle is coming off a bye week, but I don’t see that as a huge factor. I’m taking the points and a possible Arizona moneyline play. The 12th Man isn’t as intimidating this year.
Houston Texans at Cincinnati Bengals (-10.5) – My pick is Cincinnati Bengals
Ugh. Monday Night Football got a stinker this week. Cincinnati is playing great and Houston hasn’t played well against playoff-quality teams. I expect Cincinnati to keep chugging along and cover at home.
*These picks are for entertainment purposes
Sweetbob’s NFL picks against the spread record in previous seasons:
Bobby Roberts (otherwise known as Sweetbob) is the creator of ‘America’s White Boy’ and contributor at Project Shanks. His writing has been featured on ESPN’s ‘SportsNation’, Sports Illustrated’s Hot Clicks, Guyspeed, and various other sites. You can follow him on Twitter at @Sweetbob