I’m sorry for getting this post up late this week. I was having a ‘man issue’ I couldn’t solve myself. The issue was that my car broke down and I’m horrible at man stuff, like use stainless steel tools and spitting. I finally got the issue straightened out and was able to research this week’s NFL games.
I went 8-6-2 last week. I now sit at 113-103-7 with my NFL picks against the spread this season.
I had a decent year betting against the spread in the NFL last season (133-95-10). Any year you hit nearly 60% of the NFL games against the spread is a damn good year. Let’s hope my win percentage is near that this season.
We pick every NFL game against the spread and throw out a few upsets in Week 16 of the 2014 NFL season.
Philadelphia Eagles at Washington Redskins (+8) – My pick is Philadelphia Eagles
Mark Sanchez is still Philly’s starting quarterback (but the door is still open for a Nick Foles return in 2014). The Eagles aren’t as good with Sanchez, but they are still way better than the Redskins. Washington’s defense isn’t deep and the speed of Philly’s offense will be a problem for them. I’m picking the Eagles to cover in D.C.
San Diego Chargers at San Francisco 49ers (-1) – My pick is San Diego Chargers
San Francisco hasn’t scored more than 20 points in a game since Week 10. It’s not like they were facing murderer’s row either. Yes, they did play Seattle twice in that stretch, but they also played Oakland, Washington and the New York Giants. San Diego’s offense was stymied the last two weeks, but they faced New England and Denver…which is easy to explain. San Francisco just looks like a team ready for the offseason. I’m taking San Diego on the road.
Green Bay Packers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+11.5) – My pick is Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Green Bay was on a roll, until they exploded into a ball of flame last week against Buffalo. It snapped a five-game outright winning streak. They haven’t been great lately against the spread. They are 1-3 in the last four weeks. They are also a weak road team. They are 2-5 ATS on the road. Tampa Bay isn’t a very good team, but covering a double-digit point spread, on the road, is damn near impossible in the NFL. I’m taking the points.
Kansas City Chiefs at Pittsburgh Steelers (-3) – My pick is Pittsburgh Steelers
The Steelers have been putting up points week after week. They have scored at least 27 points in seven out of the last eight games. Kansas City’s offense did come to life against Oakland, but many offenses look great against the Raiders. I can’t bet against Antonio Brown right now. I’m picking Pittsburgh to cover.
Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints (-6.5) – My pick is Atlanta Falcons
The Saints are having a super weird season. They have historically been a strong home team, but they have lost their last four. Both teams are fighting for the NFC South (or possibly fighting to lose the NFC South). Their first meeting this year was one of the best games of the year. I expect another high-scoring game. I just don’t think New Orleans can win by a touchdown. I’m taking the points.
New England Patriots at New York Jets (+10.5) – My pick is New York Jets
New England only beat New York by two points in mid-October, but that was before they really got going this year. I expect Rob Gronkowski to have a big day. New England will make a statement at MetLife Stadium. This line might be a tad bit high though.
Minnesota Vikings at Miami Dolphins (-6.5) – My pick is Minnesota Vikings
Miami has lost three-straight games against the spread. Minnesota has won four-straight against the spread. I don’t quite understand the 6.5 point spread. Miami’s offensive line is a wreck. Ryan Tannehill will be running for his life on Sunday. I’m taking the points.
Baltimore Ravens at Houston Texans (+6) – My pick is Baltimore Ravens
No one knows which fourth-string quarterback will start for the Houston Texans. Coach Bill O’Brien is keeping his pick a mystery. It will either be Case Keenum (who hasn’t won a game as a starter in the NFL) or Thad Lewis (who had a few good games with Buffalo last year). Either way, Baltimore will cover.
Cleveland Browns at Carolina Panthers (-4) – My pick is Cleveland Browns
This game will likely be Johnny Manziel against former Browns starter Derek Anderson. Cam Newton is listed as questionable. Manziel had a horrible, horrible game against Cincinnati. Carolina’s defense has been pretty decent this year. Manziel won’t have an easy time, but his second start will go much better. I’m taking the points.
Detroit Lions at Chicago Bears (+9.5) – My pick is Detroit Lions
Calvin Johnson vs Chris Conte AND Jimmy Clausen will start for the Bears? This is easy. I’m picking Detroit to cover.
New York Giants at St. Louis Rams (-6.5) – My pick is New York Giants
The Rams defense has been pretty darn good the last three weeks. They have only given up four field goals. They won’t be making the playoffs, but they are definitely a cut above most of the non-playoff teams. If this game happened a few weeks ago, I would have picked the Rams. I just like the way the Giants are playing right now (mostly Odell Beckham Jr.). I’m taking the points for that reason.
Indianapolis Colts at Dallas Cowboys (-3) – My pick is Dallas Cowboys
The Colts are 10-4, but it’s a weak 10-4. They start off games poorly and teams haven’t been able to capitalize on early turnovers. They have played weak division opponents and should be 7-7 at best. The Cowboys running back DeMarco Murray underwent hand surgery this week, but could still play. I don’t like how the Colts match up with the Cowboys. I’m picking Dallas to cover.
Buffalo Bills at Oakland Raiders (+6.5) – My pick is Oakland Raiders
I’m being a little risky with this pick. I feel like Oakland is often underrated at home and this is another example. Buffalo has relied on their defense to keep them in games and I like Derek Carr a little more than most. I’m picking the home dog and taking the points.
Seattle Seahawks at Arizona Cardinals (+9) – My pick is Seattle Seahawks
Arizona has been winning in spite of their quarterback for most of the year. After losing Drew Stanton, it could be just too much to overcome. Seattle appears to have fixed their issues. They are riding a four-game winning streak and are 3-0-1 ATS in that span. It will be close to the line, but I’m taking Seattle to cover.
Denver Broncos at Cincinnati Bengals (+3.5) – My pick is Denver Broncos
Denver hasn’t looked right for awhile. I don’t know if Peyton Manning is injured and not disclosing it, but they haven’t been winning games by as much as they should. Denver is 3-4 ATS in their last seven games. I’m picking them just because I feel like it’s time for Andy Dalton to have a dirty diaper of a game. He has one every few weeks and he’s due.
*These picks are for entertainment purposes
Sweetbob was 133-95-10 against the spread in NFL games last season.
Bobby Roberts (otherwise known as Sweetbob) is the creator of ‘America’s White Boy’ and contributor at Project Shanks. His writing has been featured on ESPN’s ‘SportsNation’, Sports Illustrated’s Hot Clicks, Guyspeed, and various other sites. You can follow him on Twitter at @Sweetbob