In week eleven of the college football season, I went 15-10 against the spread.
It’s the time of year when the top teams can struggle against familiar conference opponents. We nearly saw an upset last week when Indiana traveled to Penn State. The Hoosiers won that game by the tip of a wide receiver’s toe. Also, BYU fell after losing their first game of the year.
Can Indiana stay perfect against Wisconsin?
We at ‘America’s White Boy’ pick 25 college football games against the spread in Week 12 of the 2025-26 NCAA Football season (November 15th, 2025).
Notre Dame Fighting Irish at Pittsburgh Panthers (+12.5) – My pick is Pitt Panthers +12.5
The Notre Dame Fighting Irish (7-2, 4-4-1 ATS) are coming off a 49-10 home win over Navy, which covered the -31 spread.
The Pitt Panthers (7-2, 7-2 ATS) are coming off a bye week, and in their previous game, beat Stanford 35-20.
The Irish have struggled to cover against ACC (1-2 ATS), so this spread could be a difficult one to beat. Pitt has a solid run defense and I don’t expect Irish RB Jeremiyah Love to continue his uptick in production. I’m taking the points in this game.
Wisconsin Badgers at Indiana Hoosiers (-29.5) – My pick is Indiana Hoosiers -29.5
The Wisconsin Badgers (3-6, 4-5 ATS) are coming off a 13-10 home win over Washington, which was a win against the +11 spread.
The Indiana Hoosiers (10-0, 6-4 ATS) are coming off a 27-24 road win over Penn State, but failed to cover the -13.5 betting line.
I realize that this betting line feels a tad bloated, but the Hoosiers have been great at home, and needs to overachieve to keep at #2 in the College Football Playoff rankings. I’m taking Indiana to cover at home.
Arkansas Razorbacks at LSU Tigers (-5.5) – My pick is Arkansas Razorbacks +5.5
The Arkansas Razorbacks (2-7, 3-6 ATS) are coming off a bye week, and in their previous game, lost to Mississippi State 38-35.
The LSU Tigers (5-4, 3-6 ATS) are coming off a 20-9 road loss to Alabama, and was a loss against the +10 spread.
LSU worked themselves into a quarterback controversary after benching QB Garrett Nussmeier in their loss to Alabama. Interim head coach Frank Wilson said he will play both Nussmeier and sophomore Michael Van Buren going forward. I think Arkansas has enough talent on both sides of the ball to keep it tight, so give me the points.
Oklahoma Sooners at Alabama Crimson Tide (-6) – My pick is Alabama Crimson Tide -6
The Oklahoma Sooners (7-2, 4-4-1 ATS) are coming off a bye week, and in their previous game, beat Tennessee 33-27.
The Alabama Crimson Tide (8-1, 6-2-1 ATS) are coming off a 20-9 home win over LSU, which covered the -10 spread.
Oklahoma QB John Mateer gets a little better every week following his hand injury earlier this year. He isn’t passing as much as the opening games, but he’s doing a lot of extra work with his legs. I think this game will be close to the spread, but I’m on the Ty Simpson bandwagon, and I think the Alabama QB will make some plays to cover at home.
North Carolina Tar Heels at Wake Forest Demon Deacons (-6) – My pick is UNC Tar Heels +6
The North Carolina Tar Heels (4-5, 5-4 ATS) are coming off a 20-15 home win over Stanford, but failed to cover the -9 spread.
The Wake Forest Demon Deacons (6-3, 6-3 ATS) are coming off a 16-9 road win over Virginia, and was a win against the +6.5 betting line.
The Tar Heels defense has taken some big leaps since the early games. UNC head coach Bill Belichick clearly doesn’t have the personnel he needs on that side of the ball, but he’s getting his players to buy-in. Wake Forest will most likely win this game outright, but the spread is a few points too large, so give me the points.
Texas Longhorns at Georgia Bulldogs (-6) – My pick is Georgia Bulldogs -6
The Texas Longhorns (7-2, 2-6-1 ATS) are coming off a bye week, and in their previous game, beat Vanderbilt 34-31.
The Georgia Bulldogs (8-1, 4-4-1 ATS) are coming off a 41-21 road win over Mississippi State, and covered the -9 spread.
This is a tricky game to handicap. Texas has been a horrible betting team, just due to the overhype of QB Arch Manning. He has played better of late, but those games were against rather subpar SEC defenses. Texas might get some post-hype, favorable point spreads to end the year, but I worry about Manning and the Longhorns pass defense. Georgia QB Gunner Stockton could have a big game. I’m taking the Bulldogs to cover at home.
Mississippi State Bulldogs at Missouri Tigers (-7) – My pick is MSU Bulldogs +7
The Mississippi State Bulldogs (5-5, 8-2 ATS) are coming off a 41-21 home loss to Georgia, and was a loss against the +9 spread.
The Missouri Tigers (6-3, 4-4-1 ATS) are coming off a 38-17 home loss to Texas A&M, and was a loss against the +6.5 spread.
It appears that both of these teams will have starting quarterbacks that started the year as backups. Injuries have hit that position, and QB Kamario Taylor will start his first game for the Bulldogs. He played well in relief in their loss to Georgia, but they will miss veteran QB Blake Shapen’s leadership. I think this is a coin-flip game, so give me the points.
TCU Horned Frogs at BYU Cougars (-4.5) – My pick is BYU Cougars -4.5
The TCU Horned Frogs (6-3, 4-5 ATS) are coming off a 20-17 home loss to Iowa State, and failed to cover the -17.5 spread.
The BYU Cougars (8-1, 6-3 ATS) are coming off a 29-7 road loss to Texas Tech, and was a loss against the +13.5 betting line.
BYU ran into a red hot Texas Tech team and suffered their first loss of the year. They fall to the bottom of the potential College Football Playoff teams, but still have some landmines to avoid, a big one being TCU. I personally don’t view the Texas Tech loss as a major step back. I had the Red Raiders ranked considerably ahead of BYU in my own personal rankings. I think BYU will bounce-back and cover at home.
Iowa Hawkeyes at USC Trojans (-6.5) – My pick is USC Trojans -6.5
The Iowa Hawkeyes (6-3, 6-2-1 ATS) are coming off a 18-16 home loss to Oregon, but was a win against the +4.5 spread.
The USC Trojans (7-2, 5-4 ATS) are coming off a 38-17 home win over Northwestern, and covered the -14.5 spread.
The betting lines have settled in a nice spot for those who think the Hawkeyes are underrated. They have covered six of their last games. They played Indiana and Oregon within a touchdown, which is rare to do against both teams. I don’t have USC among the elite in the Big Ten, but I have on top of the tier below Ohio State, Indiana and Oregon. USC has been a great home team against the Big Ten. I’m taking the Trojans to cover at home.
Eastern Michigan Eagles at Ball State Cardinals (+2.5) – My pick is Ball State Cardinals +2.5
This is the section where we pick a smaller conference game.
The Eastern Michigan Eagles (3-7, 6-4 ATS) are coming off a 27-21 home win over Bowling Green, and covered the -3 spread.
The Ball State Cardinals (4-5, 6-3 ATS) are coming off a 17-13 home win over Kent State, and covered the -3 spread.
Ball State is not a good team, but they’ve been able to tap into something at home this year. They are 3-1 and have the same record against the spread in Muncie this year. On the other side, Eastern Michigan has been ice cold on the road. I’m rolling the dice and taking Ball State to stay hot at home, so I’m taking the points.
QUICK HITS
Clemson at Louisville (-3) – My pick is Clemson +3
Arizona at Cincinnati (-6) – My pick is Arizona +6
Michigan at Northwestern (+11.5) – My pick is Northwestern +11.5
Kansas State at Oklahoma State (+19.5) – My pick is KSU -19.5
South Florida at Navy (+10) – My pick is South Florida -10
Oregon State at Tulsa (+1.5) – My pick is Tulsa +1.5
Tennessee Tech at Kentucky (-20.5) – My pick is Kentucky -20.5
Utah State at UNLV (-6) – My pick is UNLV -6
Delaware at Sam Houston (+9.5) – My pick is Delaware -9.5
Middle Tennessee at Western Kentucky (-13.5) – My pick is WKU -13.5
BONUS PICKS!
Texas State at Southern Miss (-4) – My pick is Southern Miss -4
San Jose State at Nevada (+9) – My pick is San Jose State -9
Liberty at Florida International (+3) – My pick is Liberty -3
Kennesaw State at Jacksonville State (+3) – My pick is JSU +3
Wyoming at Fresno State -3.5) – My pick is Fresno State -3.5
Sweetbob’s college football picks against the spread record in previous seasons:
2013: 134-79-8
2014: 148-118-4
2015: 149-118-3
2016: 196-145-6
2017: 183-159-13
2018: 177-157-6
2019: 187-141-8
2020: 170-160-5
2021: 167-151-8
2022: 185-150-5
2023: 155-144-10
2024: 183-164-11
2025: 151-121-3
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About the Author…
Bobby Roberts (otherwise known as Sweetbob) is the creator of ‘America’s White Boy’ and contributor at Project Shanks. His writing has been featured on ESPN’s ‘SportsNation’, Sports Illustrated’s Hot Clicks, Guyspeed, and various other sites. You can follow him on X at @Sweetbob