I went 7-7 against the spread during the ninth week of the 2025 NFL season.

We have another week of with 14 games on the schedule.

I’ve been hovering around .500 for nearly the entire season. I needed to make some changes to my rankings after the midway point in the season. I moved some teams, but I didn’t do anything drastic.

The trade deadline was interesting this year. There were some big names that movies, but mostly on the defensive side. The Jets were the biggest seller at the deadline, but their season was already in the tubes.

We pick every NFL game against the spread and throw out a few upsets in Week 10 of the 2025 NFL season.

Las Vegas Raiders at Denver Broncos (-9) – My pick is Denver Broncos -9

Atlanta Falcons vs Indianapolis Colts (-6.5) – My pick is Indianapolis Colts -6.5

The Atlanta Falcons (3-5, 4-4 ATS) are coming off a 24-23 road loss to the Patriots, which was a win against the +5.5 spread.

The Indianapolis Colts (7-2, 6-3 ATS) are coming off a 27-20 road loss to the Steelers, which failed to cover the -3 spread.

The Falcons were a missed extra-point away from a possible overtime. They cut their kicker soon after the game, and signed a sure-footed fill-in kicker. This game will be played in Germany, so these games are often rough on the underdog. The Colts traded for CB Sauce Gardner, to add to a very good run defense. The Falcons could struggle to move to the ball, so give me the Colts to cover in Germany.

Cleveland Browns at New York Jets (+2.5) – My pick is Cleveland Browns -2.5

The Cleveland Browns (2-6, 3-5 ATS) are coming off a bye week, and in their previous game, lost to the Patriots 32-13.

The New York Jets (1-7, 4-4 ATS) are coming off a bye week, and in their previous game, beat the Bengals 39-38.

The Jets traded away two major defensive stars at the trade deadline, so they are clearly playing for the #1 overall pick. Jets QB Justin Fields had a career-saving performance against the Bengals, but he will need to keep winning to keep his job, and there’s a chance he may not even start. QB Dillon Gabriel’s no-risk passing attack, puts his defense in solid position against a bad Jets offense. I’m taking the Browns to cover on the road.

New England Patriots at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-2.5) – My pick is Tampa Bay Buccaneers -2.5

The New England Patriots (7-2, 6-3 ATS) are coming off a 24-23 home win over the Falcons, and failed to cover the -5.5 betting line.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-2, 5-3 ATS) are coming off a bye week, and in their previous game, beat the Saints 23-3.

The Bucs were dealing with a wave of injuries before their bye week. It doesn’t appear that they will get all of their guys back, since RB Bucky Irving and WR Chris Godwin did no practice on Wednesday. I still like the Bucs ability to pass on the Patriots secondary. QB Baker Mayfield comes alive in the fourth quarter. I’m taking the Bucs to cover at home.

New Orleans Saints at Carolina Panthers (-5.5) – My pick is Carolina Panthers -5.5

The New Orleans Saints (1-8, 2-7 ATS) are coming off a 34-10 road loss to the Rams, and lost against the +14.5 spread.

The Carolina Panthers (5-4, 6-3 ATS) are coming off a 16-13 road win over the Packers, which was a win against the +13.5 betting line.

The Saints are the worst team in the league, and the Panthers are a team moving in the right direction. The Panthers have been able to get win against a lot of bad teams this year. I think they continue that trend on Sunday. I’m taking the Panthers to cover at home.

Baltimore Ravens at Minnesota Vikings (+4) – My pick is Minnesota Vikings +4

The Baltimore Ravens (3-5. 3-5 ATS) are coming off a 28-6 road win over the Dolphins, and covered the -7.5 betting line.

The Minnesota Vikings (4-4, 4-4 ATS) are coming off a 27-24 road win over the Lions, and was a win against the +9.5 spread.

The Ravens looked like their 2024 version on Thursday Night Football. Ravens QB Lamar Jackson racked up great numbers in the win. I am not sure if he will be able to do this against a very good Vikings defense. This could be a tight game, so I have to take the points.

Buffalo Bills at Miami Dolphins (+9.5) – My pick is Buffalo Bills -9.5

The Buffalo Bills (6-2, 4-4 ATS) are coming off a 28-21 win over the Chiefs, and was a win against the +2.5 spread.

The Miami Dolphins (2-7, 4-5 ATS) are coming off a 28-6 home loss to the Ravens, which was also a loss against the +7.5 spread.

The Dolphins crippled their disastrous defense even worse by trading LB Jaelan Phillips at the deadline. The Bills have taken care of the Dolphins year after year. This is the worse Dolphins team that Bills QB Josh Allen will face. I’m taking the Bills to cover on the road. 

New York Giants at Chicago Bears (-4.5) – My pick is Chicago Bears -4.5

The New York Giants (2-7, 4-5 ATS) are coming off a 34-24 home loss to the 49ers, and was a loss against the +2.5 betting line.

The Chicago Bears (5-3, 5-3 ATS) are coming off a 47-42 road win over the Bengals, and covered the -3 spread.

The Giants are the best two-win team in the league. They are keeping games close, but the loss of rookie RB Cam Skattebo will continue to hurt them. It could lead to rookie QB Jaxson Dart to take some risks on the ground himself, which isn’t smart for his long-term progression. The Bears offense just racked up a ton of yards against a bad Bengals defense. I think they will be able to close out a win and cover at home.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Houston Texans (+1.5) – My pick is Jacksonville Jaguars -1.5

The Jacksonville Jaguars (5-3, 4-3-1 ATS) are coming off a 30-29 road win over the Raiders, which was a push against the -1 betting line.

The Houston Texans (3-5, 3-5 ATS) are coming off a 18-15 home loss to the Broncos, which failed to cover the -2.5 spread.

Texans QB C.J. Stroud took a big hit while trying to slide against the Broncos, and he suffered a concussion. Houston ruled out Stroud this week, so backup QB Davis Mills will start against Jacksonville. He’s a competent quarterback, but Mills isn’t the game-changing quarterback this Texans offense needs. I’m taking the Jaguars to cover on the road.

Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks (-6.5) – My pick is Seattle Seahawks -6.5

The Arizona Cardinals (3-5, 5-3 ATS) are coming off a 27-17 road win over the Cowboys, which was a win against the +3 spread.

The Seattle Seahawks (6-2, 6-2 ATS) are coming off a 38-14 road win over the Commanders, which also covered the -3 spread.

The Cardinals made an interesting move by insinuating that QB Jacoby Brissett could be the starter for awhile. They await QB Kyler Murray to be fully healed from injury, but it sounds like Murray could even be QB2 when healthy. I think that’s crazy, just based on the money owed to Murray. I’ve watched Brissett a lot when he played on the Colts. He makes smart decisions, but lacks the ability to make game-changing throws, when needed. The Seahawks are on fire. I have to take Seattle to cover at home.

Los Angeles Rams at San Francisco 49ers (+4.5) – My pick is Los Angeles Rams -4.5

The Los Angeles Rams (6-2, 6-2 ATS) are coming off a 34-10 home win over the Saints, which also covered the -14.5 spread.

The San Francisco 49ers (6-3, 5-4 ATS) are coming off a 34-24 road win over the Giants, which covered the -2.5 betting line.

Niners QB Mac Jones has been solid in relief of Brock Purdy’s turf toe injury. Jones appears to be in line for another start this week, as Purdy’s injury appears to be a long-term issue. This betting line could be close to the score. I think the Rams offense should be able to move the ball against the Niners. I’m taking the Rams to cover on the road.

Detroit Lions at Washington Commanders (+8) – My pick is Detroit Lions -8

The Detroit Lions (5-3, 5-3 ATS) are coming off a 27-24 home loss to the Vikings, which failed to cover the -9.5 spread.

The Washington Commanders (3-6, 3-6 ATS) are coming off a 38-15 home loss to the Seahawks, which was a loss against the +3 betting line.

The Commanders lost their star QB Jayden Daniels for the foreseeable future after dislocating his elbow against the Seahawks. It probably depends on how the next few games go for Washington, if they even try to possibly rush him back. It’s currently unknown what the timetable is, but I assume we have seen the last of him this season. The Lions are looking to rebound from a close Vikings loss. I think they will cover on the road.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Los Angeles Chargers (-3) – My pick is Pittsburgh Steelers +3

The Pittsburgh Steelers (5-3, 4-4 ATS) are coming off a 27-20 home win over the Colts, which was a win against the +3 spread.

The Los Angeles Chargers (6-3, 3-5-1 ATS) are coming off a 27-20 road win over the Titans, but failed to cover the -10 spread.

This game is a coinflip in my eyes. The Chargers have suffered so many injuries on offense, so that’s what leading to my pick. Also, I liked how the Steelers defense woke up against the Colts last week. I’m taking the points in this game.

Philadelphia Eagles at Green Bay Packers (-2.5) – My pick is Philadelphia Eagles +2.5

The Philadelphia Eagles (6-2, 5-3 ATS) are coming off a bye week, and in their previous game, beat the Giants 38-20.

The Green Bay Packers (5-2-1, 3-5 ATS) are coming off a 16-13 home loss against the Panthers, which failed to cover the -13.5 betting line.

The Eagles have all the talent in the world, but they haven’t won with the style points like they did last year. This is a great litmus test for the Eagles and I think they will fare well against the Packers. Green Bay hasn’t been a great betting team this year, and they’ve played a rather easy schedule up to this point. I think the Eagles could win this game outright, so I’m taking the points.

*These picks are for entertainment purposes

Sweetbob’s NFL picks against the spread record in previous seasons:
2013: 133-95-10
2014: 131-114-9
2015: 150-108-9
2016: 143-120-13
2017: 144-115-16
2018: 141-118-13
2019: 159-119-7
2020: 152-121-8
2021: 155-129-6
2022: 148-133-8
2023: 132-116-6
2024: 158-120-8
2025: 67-66-2

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About the Author…

Bobby Roberts (otherwise known as Sweetbob) is the creator of ‘America’s White Boy’ and contributor at Project Shanks. His writing has been featured on ESPN’s ‘SportsNation’, Sports Illustrated’s Hot Clicks, Guyspeed, and various other sites. You can follow him on X at @Sweetbob