In week ten of the college football season, I went 15-10 against the spread.
I’ve been on a hot streak in recent weeks. I have found value in some of the mid-tier SEC teams, and riding the top teams in the Big Ten. That strategy has been solid, but it could be time to pivot soon.
The ACC has been a difficult conference to handicap this year. All the top teams are beatable week-to-week. Virginia, Georgia Tech and Pitt are the top-three teams in the standings, which would have been surprising at the start of the year.
We at ‘America’s White Boy’ pick 25 college football games against the spread in Week 11 of the 2025-26 NCAA Football season (November 8th, 2025).
BYU Cougars at Texas Texas Red Raiders (-10) – My pick is BYU Cougars +10
The BYU Cougars (8-0, 6-2 ATS) are coming off a bye week, and in their previous game, beat Iowa State 41-27.
The Texas Tech Red Raiders (8-1, 7-2 ATS) are coming off a 43-20 road win over Kansas State, which covered the -7 spread.
I love Texas Tech QB Behren Morton, but this betting line is just a touch too bloated. BYU may not have played many tough opponents, but I think they will keep Texas Tech’s offense corralled. I’m taking the points in this game.
Indiana Hoosiers at Penn State Nittany Lions (+15) – My pick is Indiana Hoosiers -15
The Indiana Hoosiers (9-0, 6-3 ATS) are coming off a 55-10 road win over Maryland, and covered the -21 spread.
The Penn State Nittany Lions (3-5, 1-7 ATS) are coming off a 38-14 road loss to Ohio State, and was a loss against the +18.5 betting line.
I’m confused why this line isn’t closer to -20, so I’m jumping on the discount. Penn State has packed it in, and Indiana plays every down like they are down by two touchdowns. I don’t think Penn State will catch the Hoosiers slipping. I’m taking Indiana to cover on the road.
Georgia Bulldogs at Mississippi State Bulldogs (+8.5) – My pick is Georgia Bulldogs -8.5
The Georgia Bulldogs (7-1, 3-4-1 ATS) are coming off a 24-20 road win over Florida, but failed to cover the -7 spread.
The Mississippi State Bulldogs (5-4, 8-1 ATS) are coming off a 38-35 road win over Arkansas, which was also a win over the +4.5 spread.
Mississippi State has been fantastic against the spread this year, especially in SEC play. I think it’s time to jump off the bandwagon. They’ve been keeping it losses within single-digits, but mostly against the middle-tier SEC teams. This betting line would need to be much larger to stay on MSU. I’m taking Georgia to cover on the road.
Texas A&M Aggies at Missouri Tigers (+7) – My pick is Texas A&M Aggies -7
The Texas A&M Aggies (8-0, 4-4 ATS) are coming off a bye week, and in their previous game, beat LSU 49-25.
The Missouri Tigers (6-2, 4-3-1 ATS) are coming off a bye week, and in their previous game, lost to Vanderbilt 17-10.
Missouri lost starting QB Beau Pribula to a dislocated ankle in their loss to Vandy. He could be out for the rest of the year. The drop-off is noticeable, and could be the reason Missouri doesn’t make this a close game. The Tigers defense will need to really step up. I have to take the Aggies to cover on the road.
Stanford Cardinal at North Carolina Tar Heels (-7.5) – My pick is UNC Tar Heels -7.5
The Stanford Cardinal (3-6, 2-7 ATS) are coming off a 35-20 home loss to Pitt, which was also a slight loss against the +14 betting line.
The North Carolina Tar Heels (3-5, 5-3 ATS) are coming off a 27-10 road win over Syracuse, which was a win against the +1 spread.
UNC has won against the spread in three-straight games, but they were underdogs in all three. They actually haven’t been favored in any game against a Power Four team, until this week. North Carolina’s defense is playing better than they were just a month ago. Coach Belichick might finally have some technique drilled into them. I think the Tar Heels will cover at home.
LSU Tigers at Alabama Crimson Tide (-10) – My pick is Alabama Crimson Tide -10
The LSU Tigers (5-3, 3-5 ATS) are coming off a bye week, and in their previous game, lost to Texas A&M 49-25.
The Alabama Crimson Tide (7-1, 5-2-1 ATS) are coming off a bye week, and in their previous game, beat South Carolina 29-22.
LSU attempts to navigate without former head coach Brian Kelly. Players and coaches will be extra motivated to impress their next coach, at LSU or elsewhere. I usually do well betting on teams the first team after a coach firing, but Alabama QB Ty Simpson is just too damn good. I’m taking Bama to cover at home.
Florida State Seminoles at Clemson Tigers (-2) – My pick is Florida State Seminoles +2
The Florida State Seminoles (4-4, 4-4 ATS) are coming off a 42-7 home win against Wake Forest, and covered the -10.5 spread.
The Clemson Tigers (3-5, 2-6 ATS) are coming off a 46-45 home loss to Duke, and failed to cover the -3.5 spread.
FSU QB Tommy Castellanos rebounded from a concussion and rolled Wake Forest last week. The Seminoles defense kept Wake guessing all game. Clemson has been an awful betting team all year, so this line should probably be a pick’em game after back-to-back home losses. I think Florida State will be able to score on Clemson’s weaker-than-expected defense. I’m taking the points.
Auburn Tigers at Vanderbilt Commodores (-6.5) – My pick is Vanderbilt Commodores -6.5
The Auburn Tigers (4-5, 3-5-1 ATS) are coming off a 10-3 home loss to Kentucky, which wasn’t close to the -11 spread.
The Vanderbilt Commodores (7-2, 6-2-1 ATS) are coming off a 34-31 road loss at Texas, which was a push against the +3 betting line.
I’m going against a fairly profitable strategy by not betting on Auburn after they fired head coach Hugh Freeze. I think there is still value in the Vanderbilt betting line. Auburn has a decent defense, but the Commodores are fighting to earn a spot in the College Football Playoff. They will need to leapfrog a handful of teams to do so. I’m taking Vandy to cover at home.
Ohio State Buckeyes at Purdue Boilermakers (+29.5) – My pick is Purdue Boilermakers +29.5
The Ohio State Buckeyes (8-0, 7-0-1 ATS) are coming off a 38-14 home win over Penn State, which covered the -18.5 spread.
The Purdue Boilermakers (2-7, 3-5-1 ATS) are coming off a 21-16 road loss to Michigan, but was a win against the +21 spread.
Ohio State has been a great betting team, but this line is a few points too bloated. Purdue is a better overall team than last year, and have held their own against teams like Michigan, Rutgers and Minnesota. This line feels like a wipeout for people who have been riding OSU all year. I’m taking the points in this game.
Southern Miss Golden Eagles at Arkansas State Red Wolves (+4.5) – My pick is Arkansas State +4.5
This is the section where we pick a smaller conference game.
The Southern Miss Golden Eagles (6-2, 5-2-1 ATS) are coming off a bye week, and in their previous game, beat Louisiana-Monroe 49-21.
The Arkansas State Red Wolves (5-4, 6-3 ATS) are coming off a 23-10 road win over Troy, which was also a win against the +7.5 spread.
I’ve been riding Arkansas State all month, and it has paid off. They are on a four-game outright winning streak, and they were underdogs in three of those games. Their defense is showing up, and taking care of conference foes. Southern Miss has one of the better offenses in the conference, so it will be a battle. I think Arkansas State can keep it close, so give me the points.
QUICK HITS
Houston at UCF (+1) – My pick is Houston -1
Colorado at West Virginia (-6.5) – My pick is West Virginia -6.5
Maryland at Rutgers (+1) – My pick is Maryland -1
Kansas at Arizona (-4.5) – My pick is Arizona -4.5
Duke at UConn (+9) – My pick is UConn +9
Nebraska at UCLA (-1.5) – My pick is Nebraska +1.5
SMU at Boston College (+10.5) – My pick is SMU -10.5
Iowa State at TCU (-6.5) – My pick is Iowa State +6.5
Texas State at Louisiana (+2.5) – My pick is Texas State -2.5
Georgia State at Coastal Carolina (-7.5) – My pick is Coastal Carolina -7.5
BONUS PICKS!
San Diego State at Hawaii (+7) – My pick is Hawaii +7
James Madison at Marshall (+13.5) – My pick is JMU -13.5
Bowling Green at Eastern Michigan (-2) – My pick is EMU -2
Tulsa at Florida Atlantic (-3.5) – My pick is FAU -3.5
Kennesaw State at New Mexico State (+9.5) – My pick is KSU -9.5
Sweetbob’s college football picks against the spread record in previous seasons:
2013: 134-79-8
2014: 148-118-4
2015: 149-118-3
2016: 196-145-6
2017: 183-159-13
2018: 177-157-6
2019: 187-141-8
2020: 170-160-5
2021: 167-151-8
2022: 185-150-5
2023: 155-144-10
2024: 183-164-11
2025: 136-111-3
Follow us on X (formerly Twitter) @Sweetbob & ‘LIKE’ us on Facebook!
About the Author…
Bobby Roberts (otherwise known as Sweetbob) is the creator of ‘America’s White Boy’ and contributor at Project Shanks. His writing has been featured on ESPN’s ‘SportsNation’, Sports Illustrated’s Hot Clicks, Guyspeed, and various other sites. You can follow him on X at @Sweetbob