I went 7-6 against the spread during the eighth week of the 2025 NFL season.

We are back to having fourteen games on the schedule this week.

We have a few marquee games this week. The biggest one being the Kansas City Chiefs travelling to Buffalo to face the Bills. Kansas City is on a roll and are playing like the best team in the league.

We have quite a few quarterbacks listed as day-to-day heading into this week’s games. Niners QB Brock Purdy, Arizona QB Kyler Murray and Washington QB Jayden Daniels playing statuses aren’t clear right now.

We pick every NFL game against the spread and throw out a few upsets in Week 9 of the 2025 NFL season.

Baltimore Ravens at Miami Dolphins (+7.5) – My pick is Baltimore Ravens -7.5

Carolina Panthers at Green Bay Packers (-13) – My pick is Carolina Panthers +13

The Carolina Panthers (4-4, 5-3 ATS) are coming off a 40-9 home loss to the Bills, which wasn’t close to the +7.5 spread.

The Green Bay Packers (5-1-1, 3-4 ATS) are coming off a 35-25 road win over the Steelers, which covered the -2.5 spread.

This betting line had a drastic swing after it looks less likely that QB Bryce Young (ankle) starts on Sunday. I am writing this on Wednesday afternoon, so things could change by kick-off. I don’t love this large of a line against backup QB Andy Dalton, or if Young plays. The Panthers will need to learn on the backfield to keep this within the betting line, and I’m taking the points.

Denver Broncos at Houston Texans (-1.5) – My pick is Houston Texans -1.5

The Denver Broncos (6-2, 3-4-1 ATS) are coming off a 44-24 home win over the Cowboys, which covered the -4 betting line.

The Houston Texans (3-4, 3-4 ATS) are coming off a 26-15 home win over the 49ers, which covered the -3 spread.

The Broncos were able to take advantage of the Cowboys cupcake defense and put up 44 points. They won’t be facing the same level of talent this week, as the Texans defense is very respectable. The Texans offense is waking up after an early season snooze. QB C.J. Stroud should be able to pass enough to secure a cover. I’m taking the Texans to cover at home.

Chicago Bears at Cincinnati Bengals (+2.5) – My pick is Cincinnati Bengals +2.5

The Chicago Bears (4-3, 4-3 ATS) are coming off a 30-16 road loss to the Ravens, which was a loss against the +2.5 spread.

The Cincinnati Bengals (3-5, 3-5 ATS) are coming off a 39-38 home loss to the Jets, which didn’t cover the -5.5 spread.

The Bengals loss to the Jets was pretty darn embarrassing. I thought Cincinnati had that game in control, but the Jets just dominated the last ten minutes. I think this week’s game will be a high-scoring affair, with two bad defenses. I think the Bengals passing game will have an edge, so give me the points.

Atlanta Falcons at New England Patriots (-6.5) – My pick is Atlanta Falcons +6.5

The Atlanta Falcons (3-4, 3-4 ATS) are coming off a 34-10 home loss to the Dolphins, which wasn’t close to the -7 spread.

The New England Patriots (6-2, 6-2 ATS) are coming off a 32-13 home win over the Browns, which covered the -7 betting line.

The Falcons were without QB Michael Penix Jr. (knee) in their blowout loss to the Dolphins. It was an all-around poor performance by Atlanta, as their defense was non-existent. The Patriots are on a five-game winning streak, and have been beating up on some bad teams. I think the Patriots will win this game outright, but I think backup QB Kirk Cousins (or Penix) can lean on their running game to keep it close.

Indianapolis Colts at Pittsburgh Steelers (+3) – My pick is Indianapolis Colts -3

The Indianapolis Colts (7-1. 6-2 ATS) are coming off a 38-14 home win over the Titans, which covered the large -14.5 betting line.

The Pittsburgh Steelers (4-3, 3-4 ATS) are coming off a 35-25 home loss to the Packers, which was a loss against the +2.5 spread.

I’ve been down on the Steelers for most of the season. Their defense is leaning on reputation, and they aren’t great on that side of the ball this season. I think the Colts will be able to move the ball well. I think Indianapolis will cover on the road.

Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions (-8.5) – My pick is Detroit Lions -8.5

The Minnesota Vikings (3-4, 3-4 ATS) are coming off a 37-10 road loss to the Chargers, which wasn’t close to the +3 spread.

The Detroit Lions (5-2, 5-2 ATS) are coming off a bye week, and in their previous game, beat the Bucs 24-9.

The Vikings are expected to start QB J.J. McCarthy (ankle), but his offensive line appears to still be in rough shape. How will McCarthy perform after six weeks of recovery? I think the Lions will come out of their bye week in a big way, with a cover at home.

Los Angeles Chargers at Tennessee Titans (+9.5) – My pick is Los Angeles Chargers -9.5

The Los Angeles Chargers (5-3, 3-4-1 ATS) are coming off a 37-10 home win over the Vikings, which covered the -3 spread.

The Tennessee Titans (1-7, 2-6 ATS) are coming off a 38-14 road loss to the Colts, which was a loss against the +14.5 spread.

The Chargers are finding their way on offense. They lost their entire backfield, so the offense appeared like it was going to be 100% passing attack from QB Justin Herbert. That hasn’t been the case since they’ve given RB Kimani Vidal a lot of work. I think they will take care of business against a bad Titans team.

San Francisco 49ers at New York Giants (+2.5) – My pick is New York Giants +2.5

The San Francisco 49ers (5-3, 4-4 ATS) are coming off a 26-15 road loss to the Texans, which was a loss against the +3 betting line.

The New York Giants (2-6, 4-4 ATS) are coming off a 38-20 road loss to the Eagles, which was a loss against the +7.5 spread.

It’s unknown if the Niners will get QB Brock Purdy and/or WR Ricky Pearsall back this week. The Niners have said that Purdy’s playing status is no longer ‘a long shot,’ but that could mean anything. The Giants have been a very good home team this year. They will miss RB Cam Skattebo (ankle), but I think they will keep it tight against the Niners.

New Orleans Saints at Los Angeles Rams (-14) – My pick is Los Angeles Rams -14

The New Orleans Saints (1-7, 2-6 ATS) are coming off a 23-3 home loss to the Buccaneers, which was a loss against the +4 spread.

The Los Angeles Rams (5-2, 5-2 ATS) are coming off a bye week, and in their previous game, beat the Jaguars 35-7.

The Saints will start rookie QB Tyler Shough in this game. He didn’t play well in relief of then-starter QB Spencer Rattler. I don’t have high hopes for him this week against the Rams. I’m taking the Rams to cover this large point spread.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Las Vegas Raiders (+3) – My pick is Jacksonville Jaguars -3

The Jacksonville Jaguars (4-3, 4-3 ATS) are coming off a bye week, and in their previous game, lost to the Rams 35-7.

The Las Vegas Raiders (2-5, 2-5 ATS) are coming off a bye week, and in their previous game, lost to the Chiefs 31-0.

The Raiders are only being given three points? They’ve been horrid of late, so there’s no way I’d put a single jellybean on them right now. The Jaguars are on a slide themselves, but I’m taking Jacksonville to cover on the road.

Kansas City Chiefs at Buffalo Bills (+2) – My pick is Kansas City Chiefs -2

The Kansas City Chiefs (5-3, 5-3 ATS) are coming off a 28-7 home win over the Commanders, which covered the -10 spread.

The Buffalo Bills (5-2, 3-4 ATS) are coming off a 40-9 road loss to the Panthers, which easily covered the -7.5 betting line.

The Chiefs have now covered five of their last six games. Some of those spreads were not easy to cover, so major respect to those guys. The Bills are coming off an impressive beatdown of the Panthers, but they’ve been inconsistent all season. I have to take the Chiefs to cover.

Seattle Seahawks at Washington Commanders (+3) – My pick is Seattle Seahawks -3

The Seattle Seahawks (5-2, 5-2 ATS) are coming off a bye week, and in their previous game, beat the Texans 27-19.

The Washington Commanders (3-5, 3-5 ATS) are coming off a 28-7 road loss to the Chiefs, which was a loss against the +10 spread.

It appears that Washington QB Jayden Daniels is expected to start on Sunday night. The Commanders have other issues right now, mainly their defense. I’m not sure if they can stop a very good Seahawks offense. The Seahawks have played an easy schedule, but they’ve taken care of business. I still think they will be able to pass on the Commanders. I’m taking Seattle to cover on the road.

Arizona Cardinals at Dallas Cowboys (-2.5) – My pick is Arizona Cardinals +2.5

The Arizona Cardinals (2-5, 4-3 ATS) are coming off a bye week, and in their previous game, lost to the Packers 27-23.

The Dallas Cowboys (3-4-1, 4-4 ATS) are coming off a 44-24 road loss to the Broncos, which was a loss against the +4 spread.

Cardinals QB Kyler Murray (foot) has missed the last two games, but he returned to practice this week. I think he’s drooling at the prospects of facing a horrendous Cowboys pass defense. I expect Murray to play on Monday night. I think Arizona will put up a lot of points, and make a few stops, so give me the points.

*These picks are for entertainment purposes

Sweetbob’s NFL picks against the spread record in previous seasons:
2013: 133-95-10
2014: 131-114-9
2015: 150-108-9
2016: 143-120-13
2017: 144-115-16
2018: 141-118-13
2019: 159-119-7
2020: 152-121-8
2021: 155-129-6
2022: 148-133-8
2023: 132-116-6
2024: 158-120-8
2025: 60-59-2

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About the Author…

Bobby Roberts (otherwise known as Sweetbob) is the creator of ‘America’s White Boy’ and contributor at Project Shanks. His writing has been featured on ESPN’s ‘SportsNation’, Sports Illustrated’s Hot Clicks, Guyspeed, and various other sites. You can follow him on X at @Sweetbob