In week nine of the college football season, I went 17-8 against the spread.
As we head into November, we are still seeing a lot of non-hyped, conference games on the schedule.
The SEC still has some hard-to-predict marquee matchups, like Vanderbilt at Texas. No one would have thought this game would be must-see when they scheduled it a couple years ago.
Can Indiana continue to stay perfect and beat Maryland in College Park?
We at ‘America’s White Boy’ pick 25 college football games against the spread in Week 10 of the 2025-26 NCAA Football season (November 1st, 2025).
Vanderbilt Commodores at Texas Longhorns (-2.5) – My pick is Texas Longhorns -2.5
The Vanderbilt Commodores (7-1, 6-2 ATS) are coming off a 17-10 home win over Missouri, and covered the -3 spread.
The Texas Longhorns (6-2, 2-6 ATS) are coming off a 45-38 overtime road win over Mississippi State, but failed to cover the -8.5 spread.
Texas QB Arch Manning suffered a concussion late in their win over Mississippi State. The Longhorns were down by double-digits when that happened. Backup QB Matthew Caldwell made the comeback and forced overtime. I think Texas will treat Arch with kid’s gloves, and I assume he will miss this game. Caldwell played well last week, and I think he will lead them to a cover at home.
Georgia Bulldogs at Florida Gators (+7) – My pick is Georgia Bulldogs -7
The Georgia Bulldogs (6-1, 3-3-1 ATS) are coming off a bye week, and in their previous game, beat Ole Miss 43-35.
The Florida Gators (3-4, 2-5 ATS) are coming off a bye week, and in their previous game, beat Mississippi State 23-21.
Florida fired head coach Billy Napier and his lame duck replacement Billy Gonzales has a tough task this week. The Gators won’t be fixed with a bye week, so I’m taking Georgia to go into The Swamp, and cover on the road.
Indiana Hoosiers at Maryland Terrapins (+22) – My pick is Indiana Hoosiers -22
The Indiana Hoosiers (8-0, 5-3 ATS) are coming off a 56-6 home win over UCLA, and covered the -26.5 betting line.
The Maryland Terrapins (4-3, 5-2 ATS) are coming off a bye week, and in their previous game, lost to UCLA 20-17.
Indiana continued their epic run with another blowout. Maryland is a solid team, and probably right up there with Nebraska as being the best in the mid-tier Big Ten teams. The Hoosiers treat every drive like they are behind in the game. I don’t see them packing it in if they go up by a few touchdowns. I’m taking the Hoosiers to cover on the road.
Texas Tech Red Raiders at Kansas State Wildcats (+7) – My pick is Texas Tech Red Raiders -7
The Texas Tech Red Raiders (7-1, 6-2 ATS) are coming off a 42-0 home win over Oklahoma State, and covered the -37.5 spread.
The Kansas State Wildcats (4-4, 4-4 ATS) are coming off a 42-17 road win over Kansas, which was a win against the +3.5 spread.
Texas Tech lost backup QB Will Hammond (knee) for the rest of the season. Starting QB Behren Morton (ankle) miss the last two games, but is ready to go against Kansas State. The Red Raiders are a dangerous team when Morton is healthy. I am hesitant to say he’s 100%, but his arm talent is hard to bet against. I’m taking Texas Tech to cover on the road.
Mississippi State Bulldogs at Arkansas Razorbacks (-4.5) – My pick is MSU State Bulldogs +4.5
The Mississippi State Bulldogs (4-4, 7-1 ATS) are coming off a 45-38 overtime home loss to Texas, but was a win against the +8.5 betting line.
The Arkansas Razorback (2-6, 3-5 ATS) are coming off a 33-24 home loss to Auburn, and also lost against the -2.5 spread.
Arkansas is still reeling from a midseason coaching change, but have been more competitive. New head coach Bobby Petrino is known for his offensive gameplan. QB Taylen Green is talented, but passing isn’t his strongest part of his game. I think MSU veteran QB Blake Shapen will keep the Bulldogs close, so I’m taking the points.
South Carolina Gamecocks at Ole Miss Rebels (-12.5) – My pick is Ole Miss Rebels -12.5
The South Carolina Gamecocks (3-5, 4-4 ATS) are coming off a 29-22 home loss to Alabama, but was a win against the +12.5 betting line.
The Mississippi Rebels (7-1, 5-3 ATS) are coming off a 35-26 road win over Oklahoma, and was also a win against the +5.5 spread.
I’ve been speaking the praises of Ole Miss QB Trinidad Chambliss since he took over the job. I think he has poise and crazy playmaking ability. If Ole Miss can score 20+ points, South Carolina may struggle to reach that total. I’m taking the Rebels to cover at home.
Oklahoma Sooners at Tennessee Volunteers (-3) – My pick is Tennessee Volunteers -3
The Oklahoma Sooners (6-2, 3-4-1 ATS) are coming off a 34-26 home loss to Ole Miss, and failed to cover the -5.5 spread.
The Tennessee Volunteers (6-2, 3-4-1 ATS) are coming off a 56-34 road win over Kentucky, and covered the -7.5 betting line.
It’s clear that Oklahoma QB John Mateer came back too early from his hand injury. I said it last week, and I’ll say it again. The ‘touch’ in his passes just hasn’t been there. It may take him a few more weeks to get back to normal. I don’t like his chances this week against the Vols. I’m taking Tennessee to cover at home.
USC Trojans at Nebraska Cornhuskers (+6) – My pick is Nebraska Cornhuskers +6
The USC Trojans (5-2, 4-3 ATS) are coming off a bye week, and in their previous game, lost at Notre Dame 34-24.
The Nebraska Cornhuskers (6-2, 2-5-1 ATS) are coming off a 28-21 home win over Northwestern, which was a push against the -7 betting line.
Nebraska should be able to move the ball at home against a below-average USC defense. It would be huge for their season-long prospects to get the outright win. I think they will at least keep it within the spread, so give me the points.
Arizona Wildcats at Colorado Buffaloes (+4.5) – My pick is Arizona Wildcats -4.5
The Arizona Wildcats (4-3, 4-3 ATS) are coming off a bye week, and in their previous week, lost at Houston 31-28.
The Colorado Buffaloes (3-5, 3-4-1 ATS) are coming off a rough 53-7 loss at Utah, and wasn’t close to the +14 betting line.
Colorado is coming off a bad, horrible, no good loss against Utah. The game got out of control, and head coach Deion Sanders had no answer either. Arizona QB Noah Fifita is have a nice post-hype season for the Wildcats. Arizona is lost in the shuffle in the Big 12, but they can beat up on the bad teams in the conference. I’m taking Arizona to cover on the road.
Arkansas State Red Wolves at Troy Trojans (-7) – My pick is Troy Trojans -7
This is the section where we pick a smaller conference game.
The Arkansas State Red Wolves (4-4, 5-3 ATS) are coming off a 34-24 win at Georgia Southern, and cover the -1 spread.
The Troy Trojans (6-2, 6-2 ATS) are coming off a 35-23 home win over Louisiana, and covered the -7 spread.
Both of these teams have been underrated this season. I’ve won a decent amount of money on Troy this season, and the tide could be turning soon. The point spreads start to catch up on teams that do well against the spread in the first-half of the season. I think the betting line will be close to the true outcome. Troy will need their defense to step up and limit the Red Wolves rushing attack. I think Troy will inch out a cover at home.
QUICK HITS
Memphis at Rice (+14) – My pick is Memphis -14
Oklahoma State at Kansas (-24.5) – My pick is Kansas -24.5
Kentucky at Auburn (-10.5) – My pick is Kentucky +10.5
West Virginia at Houston (-13.5) – My pick is Houston -13.5
Rutgers at Illinois (-12.5) – My pick is Rutgers +12.5
Miami (FL) at SMU (+12.5) – My pick is SMU 12.5
Wake Forest at Florida State (-9.5) – My pick is Wake Forest +9.5
Virginia at California (+4.5) – My pick is California +4.5
Notre Dame at Boston College (+29) – My pick is Notre Dame -29
New Mexico State at Western Kentucky (-9) – My pick is WKU -9
BONUS PICKS!
Navy at North Texas (-6.5) – My pick is North Texas -6.5
Louisiana at South Alabama (-4) – My pick is South Alabama -4
Army at Air Force (-1) – My pick is Army +1
UAB at UConn (-11.5) – My pick is UConn -11.5
East Carolina at Temple (+5.5) – My pick is ECU -5.5
Sweetbob’s college football picks against the spread record in previous seasons:
2013: 134-79-8
2014: 148-118-4
2015: 149-118-3
2016: 196-145-6
2017: 183-159-13
2018: 177-157-6
2019: 187-141-8
2020: 170-160-5
2021: 167-151-8
2022: 185-150-5
2023: 155-144-10
2024: 183-164-11
2025: 121-101-3
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About the Author…
Bobby Roberts (otherwise known as Sweetbob) is the creator of ‘America’s White Boy’ and contributor at Project Shanks. His writing has been featured on ESPN’s ‘SportsNation’, Sports Illustrated’s Hot Clicks, Guyspeed, and various other sites. You can follow him on X at @Sweetbob