I went 6-9 against the spread during the sixth week of the 2025 NFL season.

I got the panted beat off me last week. It was by far the worst week I’ve had against the spread, in the NFL or college football.

We have almost another full slate of games this week, with only two teams on bye.

How will the Buccaneers passing offense fare against a banged up Lions secondary?

Can the Bears win their four game in-a-row?

We pick every NFL game against the spread and throw out a few upsets in Week 7 of the 2025 NFL season.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Cincinnati Bengals (+5.5) – My pick is Pittsburgh Steelers -5.5

Los Angeles Rams vs Jacksonville Jaguars (+3) – My pick is Los Angeles Rams -3

The Los Angeles Rams (4-2, 4-2 ATS) are coming off a 17-3 road win over the Ravens, which also covered the -7.5 spread.

The Jacksonville Jaguars (4-2, 4-2 ATS) are coming off a 20-12 home loss to the Seahawks, which was also a loss against the +1 spread.

The Jaguars fell on their face after they’ve strung together some nice wins. They couldn’t run against the Seahawks, which was surprising. The Rams are still getting a lot of value in their betting lines. This should be over a field goal, so I’m taking the Rams to cover.

New England Patriots at Tennessee Titans (+7) – My pick is New England Patriots -7

The New England Patriots (4-2, 4-2 ATS) are coming off a 25-19 road win over the Saints, and covered the -3.5 spread.

The Tennessee Titans (1-5, 2-4 ATS) are coming off a 20-10 road loss to the Raiders, and was a loss against the +5 betting line.

The Titans fired head coach Brian Callahan after last week’s loss, which was odd timing. I know he hasn’t been great, but not sure I would have fired him after only six games with #1 overall pick QB Cam Ward. He was hampered by his lack of a competent quarterback last year as well. The Patriots are the better team, but they need to find a way to run the ball more consistent. I’m still taking New England to cover.

Philadelphia Eagles at Minnesota Vikings (+1.5) – My pick is Minnesota Vikings +1.5

The Philadelphia Eagles (4-2, 3-3 ATS) are coming off a surprising 34-17 road loss to the Giants, and was far from covering the -7.5 spread.

The Minnesota Vikings (3-2, 3-2 ATS) are coming off a bye week, and in their previous game, beat the Browns 21-17.

The Eagles are dealing with something more than just X’s and O’s. Teams are better prepared for them this year, and RB Saquon Barkley is getting more respect by opposing defenses (and gameplanned to stop). This game will be close to the spread, but I’m taking the Vikings coming off a bye.

New Orleans Saints at Chicago Bears (-5) – My pick is Chicago Bears -5

The New Orleans Saints (1-5, 2-4 ATS) are coming off a 25-19 home loss to the Patriots, and was also a loss against the +3.5 spread.

The Chicago Bears (3-2, 3-2 ATS) are coming off a 25-24 road win against the Commanders, which was also a win against the +5.5.

The Bears have strung together three-straight wins, two of them on the road. They are better than their record. This line should be closer to a touchdown. I’m taking the the Bears to cover at home.

Miami Dolphins at Cleveland Browns (-2.5) – My pick is Cleveland Browns -2.5

The Miami Dolphins (1-5. 3-3 ATS) are coming off a close 29-27 road loss to the Chargers, which was a win against the +4 betting line.

The Cleveland Browns (1-4, 2-3 ATS) are coming off a 23-9 loss to the Steelers, which was also a loss against the +6 spread.

The Browns made a smart move by going with rookie QB Dillon Gabriel. He’s a smart quarterback, but the Browns are still a very flawed team. Gabriel will always opt for the short pass, for better or worse. The Dolphins have been a turnover machine thus far. I have to roll the dice with the Browns covering at home.

Las Vegas Raiders at Kansas City Chiefs (-12) – My pick is Las Vegas Raiders +12

The Las Vegas Raiders (2-4, 2-4 ATS) are coming off a 20-10 home win over the Titans, which covered the -5 spread.

The Kansas City Chiefs (3-3, 3-3 ATS) are coming off a 30-17 home win over the Lions, and covered the -2.5 betting line.

I need to look up the Chiefs record against a double-digit point spread, as it can’t be good. They are a very public team, so they are consistently overrated by a few points. It’s very difficult to cover a double-digit point spread against a division foe. I think the Raiders keep this within ten, so I’m taking the points.

Carolina Panthers at New York Jets (+1.5) – My pick is Carolina Panthers -1.5

The Carolina Panthers (3-3, 4-2 ATS) are coming off a 30-27 home win over the Cowboys, which was also a win against the +3 spread.

The New York Jets (0-6, 3-3 ATS) are coming off a 13-11 home loss to the Broncos, but was a win against the +7 spread.

The Jets really shit the bed against Denver. QB Justin Fields had negative net yards for the game, and I can’t even remember the last time that has happened. They are a better team with QB Tyrod Taylor under center, but it appears that they are sticking with Fields. The Panthers have been able to beat up on bad teams this year, and I think they will continue on Sunday.

Indianapolis Colts at Los Angeles Chargers (-1.5) – My pick is Indianapolis Colts +1.5

The Indianapolis Colts (5-1, 3-2 ATS) are coming off a 31-27 home win over the Cardinals, but failed to cover the -10 spread.

The Los Angeles Chargers (4-2, 2-3-1 ATS) are coming off a 29-27 road loss to the Dolphins, but failed to cover the -4 spread.

The Chargers need a strong second-half to secure the win, against a bad Dolphins defense. RB Kimani Vidal has a fantastic outing, but can he do that against a very good Colts run defense? I like this line for the Colts, and think their pass rush can get to Chargers QB Justin Herbert a few times. I’m taking the points in this game.

New York Giants at Denver Broncos (-7) – My pick is New York Giants +7

The New York Giants (2-4, 3-3 ATS) are coming off a 34-17 home win over the Eagles, and was a win against the +7.5 spread.

The Denver Broncos (4-2, 2-3-1 ATS) are coming off a 13-11 road win against the Jets, but failed to cover the -7 betting line.

The Giants are a better team with rookie QB Jaxson Dart under center. They are getting the ball to rookie QB Cam Skattebo at an increased rate. He wasn’t a factor in the first few games, but they realized he can be a dynamic weapon. I do worry about the Broncos secondary, but the Giants can move the ball on the ground with Skattebo and Dart. I’m taking the points.

Washington Commanders at Dallas Cowboys (+1.5) – My pick is Washington Commanders -1.5

The Washington Commanders (3-3, 3-3 ATS) are coming off a 25-24 home loss to the Bears, and also failed to cover the -5.5 spread.

The Dallas Cowboys (2-3-1, 3-3 ATS) are coming off a 30-27 road loss to the Panthers, and failed to cover the -3 spread.

The Commanders offense isn’t the same without WR Terry McLaurin (quadriceps). He is at practice, but was limited on Wednesday. I think he’s on the road to suiting up, but it’s still up in the air. I think Commanders QB Jayden Daniels will have a lot of options against a bad Cowboys defense. He could have his best outing of the year, so I’m taking Washington to cover on the road.

Green Bay Packers at Arizona Cardinals (+6.5) – My pick is Green Bay Packers -6.5

The Green Bay Packers (3-1-1, 2-3 ATS) are coming off a 27-18 home win against the Bengals, but failed to cover the bloated -15 spread.

The Arizona Cardinals (2-4, 3-3 ATS) are coming off a 31-27 road loss to the Colts, but was a win against the +10 betting line.

The Cardinals nearly pulled off the upset with backup QB Jacoby Brissett. I’ve witnessed many such outings from Brissett when he was on the Colts. He’s one of the better backups in the league, but he’s not the most consistent. Starting QB Kyler Murray is still limited in practice and WR Marvin Harrison Jr. is in concussion protocol. The Cardinals need both of them to keep this within the spread, and it looks unlikely they’ll have both. I’m taking the Packers to cover on the road.

Atlanta Falcons at San Francisco 49ers (-2) – My pick is Atlanta Falcons +2

The Atlanta Falcons (3-2, 3-2 ATS) are coming off a surprising 24-14 home win against the Bills, and was a win against the +4 spread.

The San Francisco 49ers (4-2, 3-3 ATS) are coming off a 30-19 road loss to the Buccaneers, and was a loss against the +3 spread.

The Niners are dealing with a laundry list of injuries, but they may get a couple guys back this week. QB Brock Purdy (toe) and TE George Kittle (hamstring) were both at practice this week, although limited. It’s unknown if WR Ricky Pearsall (knee) will be back at practice, as he hasn’t been a participant as of Wednesday. Even if QB Mac Jones starts again, I see no drop-off, as I think Jones might have a better arm. On defense, they could struggle without LB Fred Warner (ankle), who will be out for the remainder of the year. The Falcons have played well since QB Michael Penix Jr. was benched a few games ago. I’m taking the points in this game.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Detroit Lions (-5.5) – My pick is Tampa Bay Buccaneers +5.5

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers (5-1, 4-2 ATS) are coming off a 30-19 home win over the 49ers, and covered the -3 betting line.

The Detroit Lions (4-2, 4-2 ATS) are coming off a 30-17 road loss to the Chiefs, which was also a loss against the +2.5 spread.

The Lions secondary is a group of the walking wounded (and some aren’t even walking right now). They had to sign a veteran cornerback for depth. The Bucs could be without rookie WR Emeka Egbuka (hamstring), which is a big blow. I still think Bucs QB Baker Mayfield will make some plays late in this one to keep it within the spread, so I’m taking the points.

Houston Texans at Seattle Seahawks (-3) – My pick is Seattle Seahawks -3

The Houston Texans (2-3, 2-3 ATS) are coming off a bye week, and in their previous game, beat the Ravens 44-10.

The Seattle Seahawks (4-2, 4-2 ATS) are coming off a 20-12 road win against the Jaguars, which also covered the -1 spread.

The Texans embarrassed a Lamar Jackson-less Ravens team. Their defense did a lot of the heavy lifting by forcing backup QB Cooper Rush into throwing three picks. How much weight are you putting in that win? They started the year awfully flat, with almost no help on the ground. I don’t think they will follow the Ravens win with another strong performance. I think Seattle will be able to throw on the Texans. I’m taking the Seahawks to cover at home.

*These picks are for entertainment purposes

Sweetbob’s NFL picks against the spread record in previous seasons:
2013: 133-95-10
2014: 131-114-9
2015: 150-108-9
2016: 143-120-13
2017: 144-115-16
2018: 141-118-13
2019: 159-119-7
2020: 152-121-8
2021: 155-129-6
2022: 148-133-8
2023: 132-116-6
2024: 158-120-8
2025: 45-46-2

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About the Author…

Bobby Roberts (otherwise known as Sweetbob) is the creator of ‘America’s White Boy’ and contributor at Project Shanks. His writing has been featured on ESPN’s ‘SportsNation’, Sports Illustrated’s Hot Clicks, Guyspeed, and various other sites. You can follow him on X at @Sweetbob