In week six of the college football season, I went 10-15 against the spread.
Going into the season, the Red River Shootout looked to be a can’t miss game with a pair of talented quarterbacks, John Mateer and Arch Manning, but a lot has changed since the start of the year. It’s currently unknown if Mateer will play, and Manning has been very underwhelming.
Can the Indiana Hoosiers hang with one of the best teams in the Big Ten, the Oregon Ducks?
We at ‘America’s White Boy’ pick 25 college football games against the spread in Week 7 of the 2025-26 NCAA Football season (October 11th, 2025).
Ohio State Buckeyes at Illinoi Fighting Illini (+14) – My pick is Ohio State -14
The Ohio State Buckeyes (5-0, 4-0-1 ATS) are coming off a 42-3 home win over Minnesota, which covered the -23.5 spread.
The Illinois Fighting Illini (5-1, 5-1 ATS) are coming off a 43-27 road win over Purdue, which covered the -9.5 spread.
After getting embarrassed by Indiana, Illinois has won, and covered, in back-to-back games. They will have trouble against Ohio State’s defense. The Buckeyes have yet to allow double-digit points, which is key to some of their covers against big point spreads. I think they will handle business and cover on the road.
Alabama Crimson Tide at Missouri Tigers (+3) – My pick is Alabama -3
The Alabama Crimson Tide (4-1, 4-1 ATS) are coming off a 30-14 home win over Vanderbilt, which covered the -11.5 spread.
The Missouri Tigers (5-0, 3-2 ATS) are coming off a bye week, and in their previous game, they beat UMass 42-6.
Missouri is undefeated, but their schedule has been very light. Bama stumbled early against Vandy, but QB Ty Simpson locked in and they dominated the final three quarters. They’ve already faced three ranked teams. I think the Tigers are overrated at the moment and Bama will take care of business on the road.
Iowa State Cyclones at Colorado Buffaloes (+2.5) – My pick is Iowa State -2.5
The Iowa State Cyclones (5-1, 3-2-1 ATS) are coming off a 38-30 road loss to Cincinnati, which was a loss against the +1 spread.
The Colorado Buffaloes (2-4, 2-3-1 ATS) are coming off a 35-21 road loss to TCU, which was also a loss against the +13.5 spread.
Colorado may have other things on their minds with head coach Deion Sanders undergoing a medical procedure to help with his blood clot issues. Also, they aren’t a deep team, and Cyclones QB Rocco Becht should rack up a yards against a rough Buffaloes defense. I’m taking Iowa State to cover on the road.
Indiana Hoosiers at Oregon Ducks (-7.5) – My pick is Indiana +7.5
The Indiana Hoosiers (5-0, 3-2 ATS) are coming off a bye week, and in their previous game, beat Iowa 20-15.
The Oregon Ducks (5-0, 3-1-1 ATS) are coming off a bye week, and in their previous game, beat Penn State 30-24.
This should be a fun game to watch, as even though Indiana is undefeated, I think they are still being undervalued by sportsbooks. I was expecting this line to be under a touchdown. I’m a big fan of IU head coach Curt Cignetti and he will have the offense ready, so I’m taking the points.
Oklahoma Sooners at Texas Longhorns (-1) – My pick is Oklahoma +1
The Oklahoma Sooners (5-0, 2-2-1 ATS) are coming off a 44-0 home win over Kent State, but failed to cover the -45.5 spread.
The Texas Longhorns (3-2, 1-4 ATS) are coming off a 29-21 road loss to Florida, which was a loss against the -4.5 spread.
It’s currently unknown if Oklahoma QB John Mateer (hand) will be given the green light to play in this game. He’s currently listed as questionable, which is a positive sign for a guy who had surgery just two weeks ago. QB Michael Hawkins Jr. is a solid option if Mateer can’t go, but this game might be a toss-up. I need to see a solid four quarter outing from Texas QB Arch Manning before I take the Longhorns against a good team. I’m taking the point(s) in this game.
Arkansas Razorbacks at Tennessee Volunteers (-12.5) – My pick is Tennessee -12.5
The Arkansas Razorbacks (2-3, 1-4 ATS) are coming off a bye week, and in their previous game, was destroyed by Notre Dame 56-13.
The Tennessee Volunteers (4-1, 2-2-1 ATS) are coming off a bye week, and in their previous game, beat Mississippi State 41-34.
This will be the first game for Arkansas with new Certified Pre-Owned head coach Bobby Petrino. He is known for airing it out and having a high-scoring offense. I’m not sure if QB Taylen Green has the arm talent for a full-blown Petrino offense. He’s a fantastic dual-threat quarterback, but I am curious how he will perform under Petrino. The Razorbacks is running into the Vols at a bad time. I’m taking Tennessee to cover at home.
Georgia Bulldogs at Auburn Tigers (+3.5) – My pick is Georgia -3.5
The Georgia Bulldogs (4-1, 1-3-1 ATS) are coming off a 35-14 home over Kentucky, and covered against the -20 spread.
The Auburn Tigers (3-2, 2-2-1 ATS) are coming off a bye week, and in their previous game, lost to Texas A&M 16-10.
Auburn needs their defense to show up to win, and cover against SEC teams. I think they will come up short against Georgia. The Bulldogs have played a tough SEC schedule so far, with a close win against Tennessee and a close loss against Alabama. It’s clear Georgia is among the top-tier in the conference. I would place Auburn in the next tier down, so I like this point spread. I’m taking Georgia to cover in this game.
Michigan Wolverines at USC Trojans (-2.5) – My pick is Michigan +2.5
The Michigan Wolverines (4-1, 2-3 ATS) are coming off a 24-10 home win over Wisconsin, but failed to cover the -17.5 spread.
The USC Trojans (4-1, 2-3 ATS) are coming off a bye week, and in their previous game, lost to Illinois 34-32.
Both of these teams have played a light conference schedule up to this point, so this is the first real test for both teams. Michigan had an early-season loss to Oklahoma, but they’ve played mid-tier Big Ten teams since the start of conference play. This could be a ‘welcome to the Big Ten, Bryce Underwood’ game. I think he has a shot to move to the ball against an average USC defense. I’m taking the points.
Kansas Jayhawks at Texas Tech Red Raiders (-14) – My pick is Texas Tech -14
The Kansas Jayhawks (4-2, 3-3 ATS) are coming off a 27-20 road win over UCF, and covered the -3.5 spread.
The Texas Tech Red Raiders (5-0, 4-1 ATS) are coming off a 35-11 road win against Houston, and covered the -11.5 spread.
The Jayhawks have been super inconsistent against the spread this year, but Texas Tech continues to overperform. Their offense has performed well, and they have a solid defense. The good Red Raiders teams of the past have struggled on defense, so this squad is built to be a great betting team. I wish this betting line was closer to ten points, but I’m rolling the dice here and taking the Red Raiders at home.
Troy Trojans at Texas State Bobcats (-8.5) – My pick is Troy +8.5
This is the section where we pick a smaller conference game.
The Troy Trojans (3-2, 3-2 ATS) are coming off a 31-24 home win over South Alabama, and won against the +1 spread.
The Texas State Bobcats (3-2, 2-3 ATS) are coming off a 31-30 road loss to Arkansas State, which failed to cover the -13.5 spread.
Troy has played a tough schedule for a non-Power Four program. They played Clemson tough and they have been an underdog in all but their opener against an FSC team. They continue to be underrated here, as this line should theoretically be under a touchdown, so I love the extra value, so give me the points.
QUICK HITS
Rutgers at Washington (-10.5) – My pick is Rutgers +10.5
Fresno State at Colorado State (+6.5) – My pick is Fresno State -6.5
Washington State at Ole Miss (-32.5) – My pick is Ole Miss -32.5
Houston at Oklahoma State (+14.5) – My pick is Houston -14.5
Wake Forest at Oregon State (+3) – My pick is Wake Forest -3
Virginia Tech at Georgia Tech (-14.5) – My pick is Va Tech +14.5
NC State at Notre Dame (-23.5) – My pick is Notre Dame -23.5
UAB at Florida Atlantic (-5) – My pick is FAU -5
BYU at Arizona (+1.5) – My pick is BYU -1.5
Rice at Texas-San Antonio (-11.5) – My pick is Rice +11.5
BONUS PICKS!
Utah State at Hawaii (+1.5) – My pick is Hawaii +1.5
Miami (OH) at Akron (+11) – My pick is Miami (OH) -11
Charlotte at Army (-18) – My pick is Army -18
Toledo at Bowling Green (+10.5) – My pick is BGSU +10.5
Northern Illinois at Eastern Michigan (+1.5) – My pick is Eastern Michigan +1.5
Sweetbob’s college football picks against the spread record in previous seasons:
2013: 134-79-8
2014: 148-118-4
2015: 149-118-3
2016: 196-145-6
2017: 183-159-13
2018: 177-157-6
2019: 187-141-8
2020: 170-160-5
2021: 167-151-8
2022: 185-150-5
2023: 155-144-10
2024: 183-164-11
2025: 76-72-2
Follow us on X (formerly Twitter) @Sweetbob & ‘LIKE’ us on Facebook!
About the Author…
Bobby Roberts (otherwise known as Sweetbob) is the creator of ‘America’s White Boy’ and contributor at Project Shanks. His writing has been featured on ESPN’s ‘SportsNation’, Sports Illustrated’s Hot Clicks, Guyspeed, and various other sites. You can follow him on X at @Sweetbob