In week five of the college football season, I went 16-9 against the spread.
There are some real make-it-or-break-it type of games this week. A lot of teams need a win to potentially save their season. You have teams like Clemson and Florida, with another loss, they’d both could start the year 1-4. It would be catastrophic for their fanbases, and a coach’s seat will be getting rather toasty.
Can Vanderbilt pull off another upset of Alabama?
We at ‘America’s White Boy’ pick 25 college football games against the spread in Week 6 of the 2025-26 NCAA Football season (October 4th, 2025).
Clemson Tigers at North Carolina Tar Heels (+14) – My pick is North Carolina +14
The Clemson Tigers (1-3, 0-4 ATS) are coming off a bye week, and in their previous game, lost to Syracuse 34-21. It’s been a long, long time since we saw a Clemson team with a 1-3 record. The Tigers hope the bye week cured some of their offensive issues, especially their issues on third down this year. QB Cade Klubnik needs to be a more-efficient passer. He has the arm talent, but something isn’t there right now.
The North Carolina Tar Heels (2-2, 2-2 ATS) are coming off a bye week, and in their previous game, lost to UCF 34-9. Coach Bill Belichick can’t turn around the program overnight, but his Tar Heels have been underwhelming. He’s dealing with an injury to QB Gio Lopez that could lead him to miss this week’s game. It’s currently under wraps, which is a Belichick thing to do.
This is a battle between two teams trying to save their seasons. North Carolina could look to start backup QB Max Johnson, who feels like he’s been in college football for a decade. He looked pretty good in relief of Lopez in their previous game. He might even give the Tar Heels a better chance to win now, but they are trying to build something with Lopez long-term. I have to take the points in this game.
Boise State Broncos at Notre Dame Fighting Irish (-20.5) – My pick is Notre Dame -20.5
The Boise State Broncos (3-1, 3-1 ATS) are coming off a 47-14 home win over Appalachian State, which covered the -17 spread. The Broncos didn’t need much time to figure out their offense without RB Ashton Jeanty. QB Maddux Madsen has been been airing it out with a lot of success. Their defense could be an issue against some of the better teams, but they have the weapons to battle score-for-score if needed.
The Notre Dame Fighting Irish (2-2, 2-2 ATS) are coming off a 56-13 road win at Arkansas, which covered the -4.5 spread. The Irish beat Arkansas so bad that the Razorbacks canned their head coach the next day. QB CJ Carr has been amazing since his slow starts against Miami (FL) and Texas A&M. He is learning on the job, and the learning curve appears to be a flat line.
Boise State’s schedule has been pretty easy so far, which has swayed my pick. Their opening week 34-7 loss to South Florida doesn’t surprise me. I actually think South Florida is better than expected, and Boise State needed a game to figure out their offense. That being said, the Broncos haven’t played anyone good since. I think Notre Dame will extend the lead late and cover at home.
Vanderbilt Commodores at Alabama Crimson Tide (-10.5) – My pick is Vanderbilt +10.5
The Vanderbilt Commodores (5-0, 4-1 ATS) are coming off a 55-35 home win over Utah State, but failed to cover the -22.5 spread. It’s been awhile since Vanderbilt found themselves undefeated this deep into the season. They’ve scheduled a lot of easier non-conference teams, and they beat South Carolina in their lone SEC game thus far. QB Diego Pavia has been excellent, and the Commodores are running up the score on the lower-level talent.
The Alabama Crimson Tide (3-1, 3-1 ATS) are coming off a 24-21 road win against Georgia, which was a win against the +2.5 spread. Bama has scheduled a lot of tough battles early, with road games at Florida State and Georgia before the calendar flipped to October. Last week’s win against Georgia was a solid showing from QB Ty Simpson, but the running game wasn’t much help.
I believe Alabama will win this game outright, but there’s something about this year’s Vanderbilt team that impresses me. They beat Alabama at home last year, and I think they will be just as motivated to try to do it in Tuscaloosa. I’m taking the points in this game.
Texas Longhorns at Florida Gators (+7) – My pick is Texas -7
The Texas Longhorns (3-1, 1-3 ATS) are coming off a bye week, and in their previous game, beat Sam Houston State 55-0. All eyes have been on QB Arch Manning since his rough start to the season. He finally showed up against Sam Houston State, but he needs to show us he can do this against a Power Four team.
The Florida Gators (1-3, 1-3 ATS) are coming off a bye week, and in their previous game, beat Miami (FL) 26-7. It’s been a rough start for the Gators. They’ve had a tough schedule, but that doesn’t absolve them of not playing well. QB DJ Lagway has been bad, there’s no other way to put it. Things will not be easier for him this week.
The Longhorns defense will make for another long day for Lagway. If Texas can rely a little more on their ground game, and open up some easier looks in the passing game for Arch, they can easily cover this game. I think we will see a better performance from Manning, but the bar was set way too high for him at the start of the year. I’m taking Texas to cover on the road.
Michigan State Spartans at Nebraska Cornhuskers (-11.5) – My pick is Nebraska -11.5
The Michigan State Spartans (3-1, 1-3 ATS) are coming off a bye week, and in their previous game, lost to USC 45-31. I’m not sure which tier in the Big Ten I’d place the Spartans. They’ve had a pretty easy schedule so far, and their defense caved against USC. I’d probably put there somewhere near Minnesota, so on the lower-end of the middle tier of teams. I like QB Aidan Chiles, but his defense is an issue.
The Nebraska Cornhuskers (3-1, 2-2 ATS) are coming off a bye week, and in their previous game, lost to Michigan 30-27. The Cornhuskers are looking to leap into the top-tier of teams in the Big Ten. Had they beaten the Wolverines, they would have been among those teams. They need to beat up on teams like Michigan State, and cover the spread, to get more respect from bookmakers.
I expect Cornhuskers QB Dylan Raiola to have a big game against the weak Sparty defense. Nebraska should be able to extend a lead if Raiola continues being exceptionally efficient with his passes. I’m taking Nebraska to cover at home.
Minnesota Golden Gophers at Ohio State Buckeyes (-23.5) – My pick is Ohio State -23.5
The Minnesota Golden Gophers (3-1, 1-3 ATS) are coming off a 31-28 home win against Rutgers, but failed to cover the -4 spread. I think QB Drake Lindsey could develop into a fantastic college quarterback. His running game and defense could be an issue against the better teams in his conference.
The Ohio State Buckeyes (4-0, 3-0-1 ATS) are coming off a 24-6 road win against Washington, and covered the -9.5 spread. The Buckeye defense has shown up in a big way this year. They kept them in the game against Texas, while the offense was figuring it out early in that game. QB Julian Sayin has been an accurate passer and he has great weapons at wide receiver.
I don’t like Minnesota’s pass defense against Ohio State. They allowed too many yards against Rutgers. I also worry about Minnesota’s one-dimensional offense, since their backfield struggles to get first downs. I’m taking Ohio State to cover at home.
Miami (FL) Hurricanes at Florida State Seminoles (+4) – My pick is Miami (FL) -4
The Miami Hurricanes (4-0, 3-1 ATS) are coming off a bye week, and in their previous game beat Florida 26-7. QB Carson Beck didn’t have a good outing against the Gators, but his backfield and defense bailed him out. RB Mark Fletcher Jr. has a future playing on Sundays.
The Florida State Seminoles (3-1, 3-1 ATS) are coming off a 46-38 road loss to Virginia, which was an overtime loss against the -7 spread. it was an overall sloppy game from both teams, but the Cavaliers scored in overtime to get the win. QB Tommy Castellanos is a dynamic, athletic quarterback, but he needs to make smarter decisions in close games.
Miami’s defense should be the difference in this game. I think both team’s offenses have big play ability, but the Hurricanes have a legit defense. They could force some errors from Castellanos. I’m taking the Hurricanes to cover on the road.
Mississippi State Bulldogs at Texas A&M Aggies (-14.5) – My pick is Mississippi State +14.5
The Mississippi State Bulldogs (4-1, 5-0 ATS) are coming off a 41-34 overtime home loss to Tennessee, but was a slight winner against the +7.5 spread. The Bulldogs played a cupcake schedule before their loss to the Vols. I wasn’t quite sure how they’d match up, but they nearly pulled off the outright upset. QB Blake Shapen has a lot of experience from his time at Baylor, and he has a great group of running backs behind him.
The Texas A&M Aggies (4-0, 1-3 ATS) are coming off a 16-10 home win over Auburn, but didn’t cover the -6.5 spread. The Aggies defense stymied Auburn QB Jackson Arnold, and his running backs fared even worse. It was a good showing by that unit, which has given up a few too many points against smaller teams in the FBS.
The Aggies defense is still a question mark going into this game. I think Shapen’s veteran leadership should be able to move the ball on them. I think A&M will still figure out a way to win this game outright, but I’m taking the points.
Texas Tech Red Raiders at Houston Cougars (+10.5) – My pick is Texas Tech -10.5
The Texas Tech Red Raiders (4-0, 3-1 ATS) are coming off a bye week, and in their previous game, beat Utah 34-10. The Red Raiders offense was almost non-existent until the fourth quarter. Texas Tech’s offense has been fantastic this year, so it was a weird aberration. Also, it was their backup QB who led them to a fourth quarter scoring blitz. Starting QB Behren Morton appears to be healthy enough to start in this week’s game.
The Houston Cougars (4-0, 3-1 ATS) are coming off a road win against Oregon State, but failed to cover the -12 spread. The Beavers are a bad team this year, and I expected a bigger result from the Cougars. Transfer QB Conner Weigman hasn’t been the program savior as expected. He’s been ‘fine’, but the Cougars are hoping he keeps improving.
Neither of these teams have played a tough schedule, so this game is a big test for both teams. Texas Tech is coming off a upset win over Utah, but it was an odd outcome with the backup QB being the star of the game. I’m curious to see if Tech gives Morton a short leash if he shows signs of a struggle. I think I’m taking the Red Raiders to cover, but it could be a razor-thin margin of error.
Ohio Bobcats at Ball State Cardinals (+14.5) – My pick is Ohio -14.5
This is the section where we pick a smaller conference game.
The Ohio Bobcats (3-2, 3-1-1 ATS) are coming off a 35-20 home win over Bowling Green, which covered the -7.5 spread. The Bobcats appear to be the cream of the crop in the MAC. It wouldn’t surprise me if they end up winning the conference this year. They have a solid running game and QB Parker Navarro could be the best quarterback in the conference this year.
The Ball State Cardinals (1-3, 3-1 ATS) are coming off a bye week, and in their previous game, lost to UConn 31-25. Ball State was predicted to finish near the bottom of the MAC, and they haven’t done much to change that. They’ve played a difficult schedule with road games at Purdue and Auburn to start the season. Their only win came against FCS team (New Hampshire).
Ohio should be able to travel to Muncie and take care of business. The extra half-point could be a sweat, but I think they can extend it out for a cover.
QUICK HITS
Eastern Michigan at Buffalo (-10) – My pick is Buffalo -10
Iowa State at Cincinnati (-1) – My pick is Iowa State +1
Wisconsin at Michigan (-17) – My pick is Michigan -17
Syracuse at SMU (-17.5) – My pick is Syracuse +17.5
Virginia at Louisville (-7) – My pick is Virginia +7
Florida Atlantic at Rice (-5) – My pick is Rice -5
Kansas at UCF (+4) – My pick is UCF +4
Central Michigan at Akron (+8) – My pick is Central Michigan -8
Tulsa at Memphis (-20) – My pick is Memphis -20
South Alabama at Troy (-2.5) – My pick is Troy -2.5
BONUS PICKS!
UTSA at Temple (+6) – My pick is Texas-San Antonio -6
Western Michigan at UMass (+13.5) – My pick is Western Michigan -13.5
Louisiana-Monroe at Northwestern (-11.5) – My pick is Louisiana-Monroe +11.5
James Madison at Georgia State (+20) – My pick is James Madison -20
Texas State at Arkansas State (+13) – My pick is Texas State -13
Sweetbob’s college football picks against the spread record in previous seasons:
2013: 134-79-8
2014: 148-118-4
2015: 149-118-3
2016: 196-145-6
2017: 183-159-13
2018: 177-157-6
2019: 187-141-8
2020: 170-160-5
2021: 167-151-8
2022: 185-150-5
2023: 155-144-10
2024: 183-164-11
2025: 66-57-2
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About the Author…
Bobby Roberts (otherwise known as Sweetbob) is the creator of ‘America’s White Boy’ and contributor at Project Shanks. His writing has been featured on ESPN’s ‘SportsNation’, Sports Illustrated’s Hot Clicks, Guyspeed, and various other sites. You can follow him on X at @Sweetbob