I went 8-7-1 against the spread during the third week of the 2025 NFL season.

There were some lopsided wins last week, and I was on the losing end on almost all of those games. I did work my way back for some underdog picks.

After the fourth week is when I tend to pivot on some teams. I have already done that with a couple teams just based off injuries. I think teams like the Rams and Colts are destined to be moved up by rankings. This week’s game will prove a lot about both of those teams. The Buccaneers have a shot to make a big jump as well.

Who will win last year’s playoff rematch between the Baltimore Ravens and the Kansas City Chiefs?

We pick every NFL game against the spread and throw out a few upsets in Week 4 of the 2025 NFL season.

Seattle Seahawks at Arizona Cardinals (+1.5) – My pick is Arizona Cardinals +1.5

Minnesota Vikings at Pittsburgh Steelers (+2.5) – My pick is Pittsburgh Steelers +2.5

The Minnesota Vikings (2-1, 2-1 ATS) are coming off a 48-10 home win over the Bengals, which easily covered the -3 spread. The Vikings had the Bengals on the schedule at the right time, while they discover their offense without injured QB Joe Burrow. All they had to do was stack the box and pressure backup QB Jake Browning to do something. The Vikings defense was built to have success doing that. They even won the game with Carson freaking Wentz at quarterback.

The Pittsburgh Steelers (2-1, 1-2 ATS) are coming off a 21-14 road win over the Patriots, and covered the -1 spread. This was a battle between two solid defenses. The Steelers defense were able to make some stops late, and QB Aaron Rodgers connected with WR Calvin Austin III for the go-ahead touchdown in the final minutes. Pittsburgh needs to find consistency on the ground to help Rodgers.

(This game is being played in Ireland)

I think I have PTSD from betting on Carson Wentz, because I don’t see how he can get the outright win, let alone cover points. As you probably already know, I’m no fan of Aaron Rodgers either, so this game did give me pause. I don’t expect many points will be racked up on Sunday. The Vikings defense is stout, but the Steelers still have guys who can cause Wentz into throwing picks. I’m easily taking the points in this game.

Washington Commanders at Atlanta Falcons (+1) – My pick is Washington Commanders -1

The Washington Commanders (2-1, 2-1 ATS) are coming off a 41-24 home win over the Raiders, which easily covered the -3 spread. The Commanders had to do it without QB Jayden Daniels (knee), and backup Marcus Mariota did amazing in relief. He was helped greatly by the a menagerie of running backs they have on the team. Daniels did say that he feels good, but still needs the doctor’s okay to get the green light to suit up this weekend.

The Atlanta Falcons (1-2, 1-2 ATS) are coming off a 30-0 shutout loss to the Panthers, which wasn’t near the -5 point spread. It was an awful performance from QB Michael Penix Jr., and the offense didn’t put any points on the board when he was benched. It’s hard to point to only him as the issue last week. I worry a little more about their defense, as I think that will be the more alarming issue going forward. Penix is still leaning on the job, but didn’t get as much work as guys like Box Nix or Drake Maye, so he will have a few of these poor outings.

I think the Commanders will be in good shape regardless of Daniels’ playing status. The quarterback position will be fine with Mariota, but the Commanders defense will need to take chances against a young quarterback. The Falcons have some solid running backs, so they need to force Penix to make plays. I’m taking the Commanders to cover on the road.

Cleveland Browns at Detroit Lions (-10.5) – My pick is Detroit Lions -10.5

The Cleveland Browns (1-2, 2-1 ATS) are coming off a 13-10 home win over the Packers, which easily won against the +7.5 spread as well. It was possibly the most shocking outcome of the week. The Packers may have been caught in a ‘trap game’ by looking at this coming week’s match-up against the Cowboys. RB Quinshon Judkins could end up as the best running back in this year’s draft class. He shown an ability to get into the second-level in college, and that skill-set often translates to the NFL. As for QB Joe Flacco, he was rather generic through three quarters.

The Detroit Lions (2-1, 2-1 ATS) are coming off a 38-30 road win over the Ravens, which easily won against the +4.5 spread. It was a great outing to follow-up their blowout win at home against the Bears in Week 2. They have playmakers on defense, but they can be scored on. Luckily, their offense can be amazing when QB Jared Goff gets the sort of games he got from running backs David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs. They can beat anyone when those guys show up big.

I know the Browns are coming off an upset win, but they are still the Browns. I don’t look at last week’s win as a huge turning point in the season. They will need to keep it within single-digits, in a shootout with the Lions. I don’t like their chances, so I’m taking the Lions to cover this large point spread at home.

Philadelphia Eagles at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+3.5) – My pick is Philadelphia Eagles -3.5

The Philadelphia Eagles (3-0, 2-1 ATS) are coming off a 33-28 home win over the Rams, which covered the -3.5 point spread. The Eagles got off to a slow-start, but they scored 26 unanswered points in the final 27 minutes. They came in clutch by blocking a game-winning field goal attempt with no time left on the clock, and for extra punishment, ran it back for a touchdown to clinch you Eagles point spread bet. Teams are game-planning to stop RB Saquon Barkley, and it nearly worked last week.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-0, 2-1 ATS) are coming off a 29-27 home win over the Jets, which failed to cover the -6.5 spread. The Bucs are off to a great start, and their offense isn’t only the pass-heavy offense from last year. Their passing attack is still the aspect that gets them wins, but they have been trying to feed RB Bucky Irving 20+ times per game. They should probably take away a few of those and throw to rookie WR Emeka Egbuka a few more times, just to boost the efficiency a little. On defense, the Bucs will still give up 21+ points a week.

The Eagles defense should try to take away the passing game and try to get the Bucs to win the game on the ground. New offensive coordinator Josh Grizzard might fall for this. Philly should be able to win and cover this one, but they’ll need to limit Bucs QB Baker Mayfield.

New Orleans Saints at Buffalo Bills (-15.5) – My pick is Buffalo Bills -15.5

The New Orleans Saints (0-3. 0-3 ATS) are coming off a 44-13 road loss to the Seahawks, which wasn’t close to the +7.5 spread. It was a horrid performance by the Saints, who didn’t find the endzone until the game was completely out of hand in the fourth quarter. It might be time to throw another quarterback out there.

The Buffalo Bills (3-0, 2-1 ATS) are coming off a 31-21 home win over the Dolphins, but came up a point short of the -11 spread. The Bills needed ten unanswered points in the final minutes to get the win. I expected a better performance from the Bills defense, They allowed a few too many drives to extend after a third down. The Bills are going to face a lot of double-digit point spreads, so their defense will need to get off the field if they hope to cover those.

It’s a bit tough to take the Bills after last week’s ho-hum performance against what many thought was a bad Dolphins team. I think Miami is better than how they played to start the year, so a ten-point win could look pretty good by the end of the year. Also, a Bills cover does make a lot of more sense if you watched a few minutes of last week’s Saints game. I’m expecting a Saints fire sale soon, especially after this one. I’m taking the Bills to cover at home.

Tennessee Titans at Houston Texans (-7) – My pick is Houston Texans -7

The Tennessee Titans (0-3, 1-2 ATS) are coming off a 41-20 home loss to the Colts, which was also a loss against the +6 spread. The Titans may not be the worst team in the NFL, but it’s neck-and-neck race against the Saints. Tennessee has a lot more optimism thanks to having a possible franchise quarterback. Unfortunately, his team has no depth and they are already starting to trade away pieces before the trade deadline.

The Houston Texans (0-3, 0-3 ATS) are coming off a 17-10 road loss to the Jaguars, which was a loss against the +1.5 point spread. There’s no other way to put it, they Texans were greatly overrated going into the season. They didn’t think the loss to RB Joe Mixon would matter much, but they were greatly mistaken. Houston’s defense has stepped up, but QB C.J. Stroud doesn’t have enough weapons. They need a receiver to step up to be a strong WR2 behind Nico Collins.

Bettors won’t have much confidence in either bet in this game. This could be the game the Texans correct some of their issues on offense, but a touchdown is a tough task to ask for an winless team. I think Houston’s defense will step up and the Texans may not need to put up a crooked number to cover this spread.

Los Angeles Chargers at New York Giants (+6.5) – My pick is Los Angeles Chargers -6.5

The Los Angeles Chargers (3-0, 2-0-1 ATS) are coming off a 23-20 home win over the Broncos, but was a push against the spread. The Chargers struggled early, but was able to score the final ten points to get the outright win. They lost RB Najee Harris (Achilles) for the season, but they have rookie Omarion Hampton waiting for more work. He’s a talented back with good hands. QB Justin Herbert is getting very good at scoring late in the fourth quarter, but not quite Josh Allen-level yet.

The New York Giants (0-3, 1-2 ATS) are coming off a 22-9 home loss to the Chiefs, which was also a loss against the +6 point spread. It was another sluggish outing for the Giants offense, so they officially made the change to start rookie QB Jaxson Dart this coming week. He has the bigger arm, and at this point, gives them the best chance to get the ball to WR Malik Nabers. On defense, the Giants didn’t had a bad game. They stopped the Chiefs from getting in the endzone in the first-half. Limiting the Chiefs to 22 total points is a win for that unit.

I like the move to Dart, but the Giants will still be outmatched by the Chargers. I expect Hampton to have his best game of his career and the Chargers defense should give Dart some confusing defensive packages. I’m taking the Chargers to cover on the road.

Carolina Panthers at New England Patriots (-5.5) – My pick is Carolina Panthers +5.5

The Carolina Panthers (1-2, 2-1 ATS) are coming off a 30-0 shutout win over the Falcons, which was an easy win against the +5 spread. The Panthers defense stepped up and it made for a quick day for Falcons QB Michael Penix Jr., as he got the hook. On offense, it wasn’t an impressive performance, but they just wanted the outright win, and that was pretty much in the bag early in the third quarter.

The New England Patriots (1-2,1-2 ATS) are coming off a 21-14 home loss to the Steelers, and failed against the +1 point spread. I did like the way QB Drake Maye played against the Steelers defense, but would have liked to see RB Treyveon Henderson to do something of note on the ground. Maye needs some help to get the outright win against good defenses. On defense, the Patriots did better than expected, but they couldn’t stop the Steelers in the final minutes.

I don’t know if the Panthers will win this game outright, but these are the kind of betting wins they tend to execute. The Patriots offense has been hit-or-miss, and the Panthers tend to turn it up against below-average teams. I expect a solid outing from RB Chuba Hubbard. I’m taking the points, and I might put a few jellybeans on the Panthers moneyline, as a longshot play.

Indianapolis Colts at Los Angeles Rams (-3.5) – My pick is Los Angeles Rams -3.5

The Indianapolis Colts (3-0, 3-0 ATS) are coming off a 41-20 road win over the Titans, and also covered the -6 spread. QB Daniel Jones continues his strong play, and RB Jonathan Taylor is having the best start to his career. The Colts have lost some players in their secondary, but as long as their offense is this strong, they can overcome that.

The Los Angeles Rams (2-1, 2-1 ATS) are coming off a 33-26 road loss against the Eagles, which was bad beat loss against the +3.5 spread. The Rams had a great first-half, but the Eagles were able to score the final 26 points to seal the win. The Rams defense had a gameplan to stop Eagles RB Saquon Barkley, but QB Jalen Hurts made some big plays in the second-half. QB Matthew Stafford was able to hit WR Puka Nacua regularly, but the Eagles clamped down on WR Davante Adams. They did get together for a touchdown early in the game, but was largely a non-factor afterwards.

As well as the Colts have played this year, I think their health issues in the secondary could cost them this one. The Rams have a lot of receiving talent and I think the Colts finally get tripped up. I’m taking the Rams to cover at home.

Jacksonville Jaguars at San Francisco 49ers (-3) – My pick is San Francisco 49ers -3

The Jacksonville Jaguars (2-1, 2-1 ATS) are coming off a 17-10 home win over the Texans, which also covered the -1.5 spread. The Jaguars needed an outright win after a last second loss to the shorthanded Bengals. QB Trevor Lawrence continues to baffle people with his inaccurate play. I realize that Houston’s defense is pretty good, but Lawrence just struggles to connect to his top receivers, week after week.

The San Francisco 49ers (3-0, 2-1 ATS) are coming off a 16-15 home win over the Cardinals, but didn’t cover the -2 spread. The Niners were able to get the outright win with QB Brock Purdy out, and Mac Jones in his spot (again). Purdy and Jones are both currently limited in practice this week, and WR Ricky Pearsall is nursing a knee as well. The Niners are struggling to stay healthy, which seems to be a yearly issue for them.

The Niners come into this game limping through practice. I think they’ll be fine at quarterback, but if Pearsall can’t suit up, they will be very limited at that position. I think they will keep spamming the ball to McCaffrey, and that seems to work. The Jags just aren’t efficient enough to win in what could be a lower-scoring affair. I expect the Niners defense to step up and maybe even score some points themselves. I’m taking the Niners to cover at home.

Baltimore Ravens at Kansas City Chiefs (+2.5) – My pick is Baltimore Ravens -2.5

The Baltimore Ravens (1-2, 1-2 ATS) are coming off a 38-30 home loss against the Lions, which was also a loss against the -4.5 spread. It’s a tough loss, but they’ve played a tough schedule up to this point. I think the Ravens and Lions would nearly split games if they played 100 times. The Lions had some balls go their way late in the fourth quarter. There’s no shame in losing to a very good Lions team. The Ravens will be just fine, regardless of their record through three games.

The Kansas City Chiefs (1-2, 1-2 ATS) are coming off a 22-9 road win over the Giants, which was also a win against the -6 spread. The Chiefs couldn’t find the endzone in the first-half, but did get a trio of field goals. They were able to find score two touchdowns in the second-half, but again, their offense will frustrate you. They have so much talent, but their point total this week is their season-high. They just keep playing down to their opponents. It could kick them in the butt against top talent.

I’ve been so underwhelmed by the Chiefs this year, and the Ravens come into this week having played such a tough schedule, I think the Ravens are better positioned to win this game. The Ravens want to avenge their playoff loss and I think they are the better overall team. The Chiefs are a very public team, so it’s rare that they are given points. I think they will get a lot of action, but I’m going with the Ravens to cover on the road.

Chicago Bears at Las Vegas Raiders (-1) – My pick is Las Vegas Raiders -1

The Chicago Bears (1-2, 1-2 ATS) are coming off a 231-14 home win over the Cowboys, which was also a win against the +1 spread. It was a surprising outcome, as I thought the Cowboys offense would be more efficient than the Bears in this one. I couldn’t have been more wrong as QB Caleb Williams had one of his best outings of his career with four passing touchdowns. The Cowboys defense is pretty darn bad right now.

The Las Vegas Raiders (1-2, 1-2 ATS) are coming off a 41-24 road loss to the Commanders, which was a loss against the +3 spread. QB Geno Smith had another solid outing with three throwing touchdowns, but the Raiders weren’t able to stop the Commanders multi-faceted running game, and short-passing attack. Rookie RB Ashton Jeanty had his best game as a pro, but it was still mediocre compared to other starting backs in the league.

This game could be a litmus test for what the season will look like for both teams. The Bears have played a tough schedule with the Vikings and Lions to open the season. The Raiders have been a ‘fine’ against a decent schedule. I think the homefield could be a factor in this one. Williams will have a letdown game, as he can’t replicate last week’s numbers. I’m taking the Raiders to cover at home.

Green Bay Packers at Dallas Cowboys (+7) – My pick is Green Bay Packers -7

The Green Bay Packers (2-1, 2-1 ATS) are coming off a shocking 13-10 road loss to the Browns, and wasn’t close to the -7.5 point spread. The Packers got caught flat-footed. They were up 10-0 with three minutes left in the game, and the Browns scored 13 unanswered points to seal the win. It’s no secret the Packers have circled the date when they face the Cowboys. I rarely see ‘trap games’ in the NFL, but it this was a textbook case. I expect them to come out of the gates hot in this week’s game.

The Dallas Cowboys (1-2, 1-2 ATS) are coming off a 31-14 road loss to the Bears, which was also a loss against the -1 point spread. The Cowboys defense is going to be an issue all season. The offense didn’t do them any favors by turning the ball over too many times. I still think RB Javonte Williams is a huge upgrade from what they had last year, but it could be all moot. It could be a long season for Dem Boys.

As I said above, the Packers are going to be motivated and LB Micah Parson will look to show the Cowboys what they gave up. I’m sure there are a lot of hurt feelings, he even mentioned what it will feel like to possibly sack Prescott. The Packers could put up 50 in this one and I wouldn’t be surprised. I’m taking the Packers to cover on the road.

New York Jets at Miami Dolphins (-3) – My pick is Miami Dolphins -3

The New York Jets (0-3, 2-1 ATS) are coming off a 29-27 road loss to the Bucs, which was a win against the +6.5 spread. The Jets nearly make an impressive fourth quarter comeback, but was thwarted by a Bucs game-winning field goal with time-expired. QB Tyrod Taylor is a solid quarterback, probably one of the better backups in the league, but he needs some help. WR Garrett Wilson is a great weapon, but that’s the only guy who showed up. His defense is his second-best offensive weapon.

The Miami Dolphins (0-3, 1-2 ATS) are coming off a 31-21 road loss to the Bills, but did win against the +11 spread. The Dolphins really needed to win when you catch a good team having an off game. They couldn’t finish the job, as the Bills are one of the best teams when they need to score late in the game. I would have liked to have seen them give RB De’Von Achane more carries. He could be a playmaker if teams keep trying to take WR Tyreek Hill away.

After a rough opening week, the Dolphins have played in two close games. I think they are better than people think, and will pull off a few betting wins against the spread. I think there is still value left in this point spread. The Jets have yet to name their starting quarterback for this game. I don’t think it matters much, as I expect the Dolphins to cover regardless of their choice.

Cincinnati Bengals at Denver Broncos (-7.5) – My pick is Cincinnati Bengals +7.5

The Cincinnati Bengals (2-1, 1-2 ATS) are coming off an awful 48-10 road loss to the Vikings, and wasn’t close to the +3 spread. The Bengals just didn’t have an answer for anything against the Vikings. QB Jake Browning just couldn’t get the ball to his game-changing receivers. The Bengals are going to have trouble without injured star QB Joe Burrow.

The Denver Broncos (1-2, 0-2-1 ATS) are coming off a 23-20 road loss to the Chargers, which was a push against the Chargers. The Broncos just ran into an offensive buzzsaw, so it was hard for them to keep up once the Chargers turned it on in the fourth quarter. They were extra motivated after seeing their starting running back suffer a major injury. The Broncos defense is still solid, but they need their offense to make clutch plays, which they’ve failed to do in back-to-back weeks.

I like the Broncos to get the outright win this week, but that extra half-point is giving me a lot of pause. The Bengals have talented coaching and I think they will make adjustments during the week. They put way too much on the shoulders of Browning. He was more of a game manager at the University of Washington, so they need to put him in a better position to win. I’m taking the points in this game.

*These picks are for entertainment purposes

Sweetbob’s NFL picks against the spread record in previous seasons:
2013: 133-95-10
2014: 131-114-9
2015: 150-108-9
2016: 143-120-13
2017: 144-115-16
2018: 141-118-13
2019: 159-119-7
2020: 152-121-8
2021: 155-129-6
2022: 148-133-8
2023: 132-116-6
2024: 158-120-8
2025: 26-20-2

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About the Author…

Bobby Roberts (otherwise known as Sweetbob) is the creator of ‘America’s White Boy’ and contributor at Project Shanks. His writing has been featured on ESPN’s ‘SportsNation’, Sports Illustrated’s Hot Clicks, Guyspeed, and various other sites. You can follow him on X at @Sweetbob