In week 4 of the college football season, I went 11-13-1 against the spread.
This weekend is unofficially the start of many teams’ conference schedules. We have some big, marquee games with Alabama traveling to Georgia, Oregon traveling to Penn State. These games will be worth tuning into on Saturday.
Can Ole Miss take care of business at home against LSU?
We at ‘America’s White Boy’ pick 25 college football games against the spread in Week 5 of the 2025-26 NCAA Football season (September 27th, 2025).
Duke Blue Devils at Syracuse Orange (+5.5) – My pick is Duke -5.5
The Duke Blue Devils (2-2, 1-3 ATS) are coming off a 45-33 home win over NC State, which easily covered the -3 point spread. QB Darian Mensah had a fantastic outing and has gotten off to a great start at Duke. His defense picked off NC State QB CJ Bailey three times, which was key in the win.
The Syracuse Orange (3-1, 2-1-1 ATS) are coming off a 34-21 road win over Clemson, which was an easy win against the +17.5 spread. I mentioned my love for QB Steve Angeli last week and now he suffered a season-ending Achilles injury. Backup Rickie Collins isn’t at the same level, but Syracuse will still throw a lot.
It’s unfortunate that Angeli is out for the season, as I think big things was in his near future. I think Duke should be able to rack up enough points to cover this game on the road.
Notre Dame Fighting Irish at Arkansas Razorbacks (+4) – My pick is Notre Dame -4
The Notre Dame Fighting Irish (1-2, 1-2 ATS) are coming off a 56-30 home win against Purdue, which covered the -24 point spread. They’ve had a tough schedule up to last week, so they were able to show out against the Boilermakers. QB C.J. Carr only needed twelve passing attempts to have a breakout performance. Also, it was nice to see RB Jeremiyah Love rack up yards again.
The Arkansas Razorbacks (2-2, 1-3 ATS) are coming off a 32-31 road loss against Memphis, which didn’t cover the -7 spread. It was a surprising outright upset. QB Taylen Green continues to be inconsistent. He is such a up-and-down talent. He is an excellent dual-threat quarterback, but sometimes the arm talent isn’t there. That’s what happened against Memphis.
I think we are at the point where Notre Dame is a little underrated. I expected a betting line closer to a touchdown, so there is some value with this line. I think the Irish will have another strong offensive performance and cover on the road.
Ohio State Buckeyes at Washington Huskies (+8) – My pick is Ohio State -8
The Ohio State Buckeyes (3-0, 2-0-1 ATS) are coming off a 37-9 home win over Ohio, which was a push against the -28 spread. Ohio aren’t a doormat MAC team, they are actually one of the better teams in the conference. It was a close game until late in the 3rd quarter, when Ohio State caught fire. They started to spam the ball to WR Jeremiah Smith, which is a smart gameplan.
The Washington Huskies (3-0, 2-1 ATS) are coming off a 59-24 road win over Washington State, which covered the -20.5 spread. The Huskies look to be an improved squad over last year’s below-standard Washington squad. The dual threat of QB Demond Williams Jr. has been a great weapon thus far. He had a near-perfect passing game while adding another 88 yards and five total touchdowns against Washington State.
It’s fair to say that talent gap between the Buckeyes and Huskies closed a bit this offseason. The gap is still rather large, but Washington looks to be a player this year. The trip out West could lead to a slow start from the Buckeyes, but I think they turn it on late to extend a lead to cover this game on the road.
Indiana Hoosiers at Iowa Hawkeyes (+7.5) – My pick is Indiana -7.5
The Indiana Hoosiers (4-0, 3-1 ATS) are coming off a 63-10 home win against a ranked Ilinois team, which easily covered the -7 spread. It takes awhile before sportsbooks took the Hoosiers seriously last year, and it took a few weeks this year. Head coach Curt Cignetti is going to get a ton of big money offers from programs with more prestige this offseason. He is turning QB Fernando Mendoza into a star right now.
The Iowa Hawkeyes (3-1, 2-1-1 ATS) are coming off a 38-28 road win over Rutgers, which covered the -2 spread. It’s clear that Iowa doesn’t have the crazy good defense, which they leaned on to win many games over the last few years. They hope QB Mark Goronowski will be the key to wins. He hasn’t been the standout performer, but his athleticism is intriguing. Also, he is getting a lot of help from his backfield.
Vegas (and bettors) are cluing in on the Hoosiers, so betting lines may be much tighter going forward. I think there is still a little more value left on the bone. It wouldn’t surprise me if Indiana wins this game by double-digits. I’m expecting another big game from Indiana’s offense, and I’m taking them to cover on the road.
LSU Tigers at Ole Miss Rebels (-1.5) – My pick is LSU +1.5
The LSU Tigers (4-0, 2-2 ATS) are coming off a 56-10 home win over SE Louisiana, which failed to cover the -49 point spread. It was a cupcake schedule opponent, so there’s not much to be gleaned from this win. They’ve had a tough schedule so far, so it was a nice reset. The Tigers might be even better than we thought they’d be going into the season. Their defense has certainly been better than advertised.
The Mississippi Rebels (4-0, 3-1 ATS) are coming off a 45-10 home win over Tulane, which easily covered the -11.5 spread. They have a little quarterback controversy, as QB Trinidad Chambliss has been fantastic while starter QB Austin Simmons healed from an ankle injury. It appears that Chambliss will be the starter this weekend, so it could be his job for the foreseeable future.
This weekend will be won or lost by which team’s unit will break, the Ole Miss offense or LSU’s defense. This will be a tight game, as it will go down to the final minutes. I think LSU has the slight edge, and I think they have talent on offense as well. I’m taking the points in this game.
Oregon Ducks at Penn State Nittany Lions (-3.5) – My pick is Oregon +3.5
The Oregon Ducks (4-0, 2-1-1 ATS) are coming off a 41-7 home win against a bad Oregon State team, which was a push against the spread. I’ve been down on QB Dante Moore, so it was nice to see what he’s capable of, albeit against a bad team. Oregon has been a well-rounded team, and has largely taken care of business against the spread.
The Penn State Nittany Lions (3-0, 0-3 ATS) are coming off a 52-6 home win against Villanova, but failed against the -47.5 spread. They might be undefeated, but are winless against the spread. Bookmakers have been super high on Penn State, and they haven’t been able to live up to their lofty betting lines. The Nittany Lions have had an easy schedule, so the game this weekend will be their first real test.
It’s difficult to handicap Penn State right now, as they’ve played low-level talent. QB Drew Allar didn’t even had a very good game against FCS Villanova last week. He was only 16 of 29, which is alarming against that level of a team. I think this game will be tight and I have to take the points.
Alabama Crimson Tide at Georgia Bulldogs (-3) – My pick is Georgia -3
The Alabama Crimson Tide (2-1, 2-1 ATS) are coming off a bye week, and in their previous game, beat Wisconsin 38-14. It was their first real opponent since their upset loss in their opener against Florida State. QB Ty Simpson was a one-man show on offense, which was an impressive showing. On defense, the Tide clamped down on the Badgers.
The Georgia Bulldogs (3-0, 0-2-1 ATS) are coming off a a bye week, and in their previous game, beat Tennessee 44-41. The Bulldogs had to dig themselves out of a whole, after falling down 21-7 by the end of the first quarter. Tennessee QB Joey Aguilar hit them in the face out of the gate. It took them a few quarters to make adjustments. Georgia was able to start gaining yards on the ground, and QB Gunner Stockton made big throws late in the fourth to force overtime.
Alabama has owned this rivalry by winning nine of their last ten meetings. I think the tide is about to turn (pun intended). Georgia’s defense is stout and they should do a much better job against Simpson. Don’t get me wrong, I think this will be a tight close, but I’m taking the home team to cover.
BYU Cougars at Colorado Buffaloes (+6.5) – My pick is BYU -6.5
The BYU Cougars (3-0, 3-0 ATS) are coming off a 34-13 road win against East Carolina, which covered the -6.5 spread. Freshman QB Bear Bachmeier has learned at a rapid rate. He has been helped by a talented defense and a talented backfield. He has a ton of potential and should keep BYU on the road to a bowl game.
The Colorado Buffaloes (2-2, 1-2-1 ATS) are coming off a 37-20 home win over Wyoming, which covered the -12.5 spread. It was their first cover of the season, after a revolving door at quarterback. QB Kaidon Salter seems to have control of the job, unless he has one bad game, and Deion pulls a number out of a hat to replace him. Colorado’s defense is their Achilles heel, and they don’t have the firepower on offense to make up for it.
I think BYU’s freshman quarterback should be able to carve up Colorado’s shoddy defense. I would love this line if it drops to six or below, but I doubt it drops. I assume people have already jumped off the Colorado bandwagon by now. I’m taking BYU to cover on the road.
Rutgers Scarlet Knights at Minnesota Golden Gophers (-4.5) – My pick is Rutgers +4.5
The Rutgers Scarlet Knights (3-1, 2-2 ATS) are coming off a 38-28 home loss to Iowa, which was also a loss against the +2 spread. Rutgers is good enough to compete with mid-tier Big Ten teams, but Iowa is the tier above them. Also, I think they’ve fallen in love with the pass a little too much. Their quarterback is talented, but maybe slow it down against better Big Ten teams.
The Minnesota Golden Gophers (2-1, 1-2 ATS) are coming off a bye week, and in their previous game, they lost on the road 27-14 at California. They gave up a ton of yards in the air, which was a surprise. It was their first true test of the season and it was a fail.
I think Minnesota is the kind of team Rutgers can compete with, and possibly even win outright. Rutgers QB Athan Kaliakmanis could have a banner game. I gotta take the points in this one.
South Alabama Jaguars at North Texas Mean Green (-13) – My pick is North Texas -13
This is the section where we pick a smaller conference game.
The South Alabama Jaguars (1-3, 2-2 ATS) are coming off a 38-20 home loss to Coastal Carolina, which wasn’t even close to the -16 spread as the favorite. It’s clear that South Alabama came into that game overrated. They had a close loss to Tulane and won against the spread at Auburn, so it wasn’t out of pocket to think they’d compete. In hindsight, that betting line was ridiculous.
The North Texas Mean Green (4-0, 3-1 ATS) are coming off a 45-38 overtime road win over Army, which also covered the -2.5 spread. They took care of business in the first overtime by stopping Army and scoring a touchdown themselves. North Texas has a prolific offense and should put up crooked numbers against most non-Power Four programs.
North Texas will put up points, every week, but I don’t see South Alabama being able to get near them. I think the Mean Green is one of the better teams in their conference, and could beat some lower-tier Power Four teams. I’m taking North Texas to cover at home.
QUICK HITS
Tulane at Tulsa (+14.5) – My pick is Tulsa +14.5
Louisville at Pittsburgh (+4.5) – My pick is Louisville -4.5
USC at Illinois (+6.5) – My pick is Illinois +6.5
UCF at Kansas State (-6.5) – My pick is UCF +6.5
Bowling Green at Ohio (-10) – My pick is Ohio -10
Hawaii at Air Force (-6.5) – My pick is Hawaii +6.5
Kentucky at South Carolina (-6.5) – My pick is Kentucky +6.5
Eastern Michigan at Central Michigan (-5.5) – My pick is CMU -5.5
Georgia Tech at Wake Forest (+14) – My pick is Wake Forest +14
*Rice at Navy (-14.5) – My pick is Rice +14.5
BONUS PICKS!
Arkansas State at Louisiana-Monroe (-2.5) – My pick is Louisiana-Monroe
Middle Tennessee at Kennesaw State (-7.5) – My pick is Kennesaw State -7.5
San Diego State at Northern Illinois (+2.5) – My pick is SDSU -2.5
Marshall at Louisiana (-1.5) – My pick is Marshall +1.5
San Jose State at Stanford (-2) – My pick is Stanford -2
Sweetbob’s college football picks against the spread record in previous seasons:
2013: 134-79-8
2014: 148-118-4
2015: 149-118-3
2016: 196-145-6
2017: 183-159-13
2018: 177-157-6
2019: 187-141-8
2020: 170-160-5
2021: 167-151-8
2022: 185-150-5
2023: 155-144-10
2024: 183-164-11
2025: 50-48-2
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About the Author…
Bobby Roberts (otherwise known as Sweetbob) is the creator of ‘America’s White Boy’ and contributor at Project Shanks. His writing has been featured on ESPN’s ‘SportsNation’, Sports Illustrated’s Hot Clicks, Guyspeed, and various other sites. You can follow him on X at @Sweetbob