In week 3 of the college football season, I went 13-12 against the spread.
Most teams are starting their conference schedule this week, so betting lines will become a lot closer. We don’t see many 40-point betting lines after this week. We still have some gimme games with Sam Houston State traveling to Austin to face Texas.
Can the Clemson Tigers cover at home against the Syracuse Orange?
We at ‘America’s White Boy’ pick 25 college football games against the spread in Week 4 of the 2025-26 NCAA Football season (September 20th, 2025).
Iowa Hawkeyes at Rutgers Scarlet Knights (+3) – My pick is Rutgers +3
The Iowa Hawkeyes (2-1, 1-1-1 ATS) are coming off a 47-7 home win over UMass, which covered the -35 spread. Iowa bounced-back from their loss to Iowa State with a blowout against the doormat of FBS teams. QB Mark Gronowski was ‘fine’ as you would expected better efficiency against UMass. The game was out-of-hand early, so they ran the ball to drain the clock for more than half of this game.
The Rutgers Scarlet Knights (3-0, 2-1 ATS) are coming off a 60-10 home win over Norfolk State, which covered the -44.5 spread. Many Big Ten teams used last week for a gimme win, and Rutgers got theirs against an FCS team. QB Athan Kaliakmanis padded his stats with a 309-yard performance, and their backups were just as effective.
Iowa has been slow to start the year, so it’s hard for me to put money on them right now. The Hawkeyes defense isn’t as good as the past years. This could be a tight one, so I’m taking the points.
Oregon State Beavers at Oregon Ducks (-35) – My pick is Oregon -35
The Oregon State Beavers (0-3, 0-3 ATS) are coming off a rough 45-14 road loss to Texas Tech, which was a loss against the +24 point spread. The Red Raiders just smoked them at every level. Their offense hummed and the defense was just as hot. The Beavers didn’t score a single point until the middle of the fourth quarter, when Texas Tech was on cruise control.
The Oregon Ducks (3-0, 2-1 ATS) are coming off a 34-14 road win over Northwestern, which failed to cover the -26.5 spread. I was expected a little more of a lopsided game. Not so much the point-differential, but I expected Oregon to put up at least 42+ points. They didn’t open up the playbook for QB Dante Moore, so it’s clear the passing offense isn’t as lethal as in recent years.
Oregon State might be the worst team on the West Coast, so this pick is an easy one. Oregon might not be as loaded as last year, but the Beavers are in rough shape. I’m taking Oregon to cover at home.
Auburn Tigers at Oklahoma Sooners (-6.5) – My pick is Oklahoma -6.5
The Auburn Tigers (3-0, 1-2 ATS) are coming off a 31-15 home win over South Alabama, which failed to cover the -25.5 spread. I’m still a bit on the fence on Auburn’s prospects against SEC competition. QB Jackson Arnold is a fantastic college quarterback, but I still think the Tigers are a mid-tier SEC squad. This week’s game has a rivalry feel with him facing his former team.
The Oklahoma Sooners (3-0, 2-1 ATS) are coming off a 42-3 road win over Temple, which easily covered the -24 point spread. The Sooners have moved up the board in my rankings. I wasn’t sure about QB John Mateer, but he’s performed well. I like his backfield and his pass catchers made his season that much easier. On defense, the Sooners are better than expected as well.
The Sooners could find themselves in the SEC Championship game this year. Other teams are getting all the buzz, but I’d take Oklahoma’s starters over nearly ever team in the conference. I think the Sooners will cover with a statement win.
Purdue Boilermakers at Notre Dame Fighting Irish (-25) – My pick is Notre Dame -25
The Purdue Boilermakers (2-1, 2-1 ATS) are coming off a 33-17 home loss to USC, but was a win against the +20.5 spread. I was really down on Purdue going into the season, but they’ve been keeping up with the betting lines. QB Ryan Browne hasn’t been great, but his play has been in improvement over what the Boilermakers got from that position last year. On defense, again, they are better than last year.
The Notre Dame Fighting Irish (0-2, 0-2 ATS) are coming off a 41-40 home loss to Texas A&M, and failed to cover the -6.5 spread. The Irish faced stout competition to open the year with games against Miami (FL) and A&M. Don’t let the 0-2 record scare you away, they’ll be just fine going foward.
The Irish smoked the Boilermakers last year at the tune of 66-7 in West Lafayette. It’s honest to say that Notre Dame got a little worse and Purdue may have taken a small, but noticeable jump. I think Notre Dame will be motivated to get on the board with wins, and what’s better than lapping an in-state rival. I’m taking Notre Dame to cover at home.
Florida Gators at Miami (FL) Hurricanes (-7.5) – My pick is Miami (FL) -7.5
The Florida Gators (1-2, 1-2 ATS) are coming off a 20-10 road loss to LSU, and failed against the +4.5 spread. The Gators couldn’t rebound after getting upset at home by South Florida. QB DJ Lagway had a horrid game with FIVE interceptions. He should buy his defense a steak dinner, as they were the only unit to show up. It’s shocking that they only lost by ten points with that many turnovers. Lagway will face tougher defenses than LSU this year, so the Gators could be in trouble.
The Miami (FL) Hurricanes (3-0, 2-1 ATS) are coming off a 49-12 home win over South Florida, and covered the -17.5 spread. QB Carson Beck continued his honeymoon in Miami with another win. He didn’t play as well as his two previous games, but he has a talented defense to bail him out. Also, RB Mark Fletcher Jr. is starting to get hot.
I assume Florida will try to reign in Lagway against a very good Miami pass defense. I expect a focus on the ground game and a shorter passing attack. I still don’t like the Gators odds of turning their season around in this one. I’m taking the Hurricanes to cover at home.
Illinois Fighting Illini at Indiana Hoosiers (-5.5) – My pick is Indiana Hoosiers -5.5
The Illinois Fighting Illini (3-0, 3-0 ATS) are coming off a 38-0 home win over Western Michigan, and covered the -27.5 spread. Illinois has made strides in the last few seasons and they are flirting with competing with the top-tier teams in the Big Ten. The Illini defense is a great unit, and QB Luke Altmyer has some competent backs lining up behind him.
The Indiana Hoosiers (3-0, 2-1 ATS) are coming off a 73-0 home win over Indiana State, which easily covered the -47.5 spread. The Hoosiers offense hasn’t missed a beat over the offseason. QB Fernando Mendoza has been fantastic and he has taken to this prolific offense. I am looking forward to seeing how they will perform against the better Big Ten programs.
Indiana’s offense has been fantastic to watch since head coach Curt Cignetti came to down. I have to continue to ride the wave until I see them look human. I won a lot of money with the Hoosiers last year, and the bookmakers still give their lines some value left on the bone. I’m taking the Hoosiers to cover at home.
Sam Houston State Bearkats at Texas Longhorns (-39.5) – My pick is Sam Houston +39.5
The Sam Houston State Bearkats (0-3, 0-3 ATS) are coming off a bye week, and in their previous game, loss at Hawaii 37-20. The Bearkats had a fun start to their FBS tenure, but it looks like they lost some talent to graduation and the transfer portal. Their schedule wasn’t very tough, so them losing all three outright, and against the spread, is surprising. They are also playing two quarterbacks, which is never a good sign.
The Texas Longhorns (2-1, 0-3 ATS) are coming off a 27-10 home win over UTEP, but wasn’t close to covering the -39.5 point spread. It’s hard to say anything positive about QB Arch Manning thus far. He hasn’t been efficient, and he looked downright bad in the first half against UTEP. Their defense has kept them in games this year.
I think Texas will bounce back in this one, but this betting line is just way too scary with Manning playing this bad. Sam Houston State isn’t good, but I think the Longhorns will come up a few points shy of a cover, so give me the points.
Syracuse Orange at Clemson Tigers (-17) – My pick is Syracuse +16.5
The Syracuse Orange (2-1, 1-1-1 ATS) are coming off a 66-24 home win against Colgate, which covered the -36.5 spread. Syracuse scheduled two cupcake opponents after opening the year against Tennessee. The Orange have (mostly) taken care of business, although they did push against the spread at home against UConn QB Steve Angeli has great arm talent, and should show what he can do after largely sitting on the bench in South Bend.
The Clemson Tigers (1-2, 1-2 ATS) are coming off a 24-21 road loss to Georgia Tech, and failed to win against the -3 spread. The Tigers haven’t looked good so far this year. They get off to slow starts, and have failed to make a successful comeback in LSU and Georgia Tech. The Tigers did this last year, but turned it on once ACC competition filled their schedule. Can they turn it up again? ACC is a better overall conference this year, so it will be tough. Clemson’s running game just isn’t getting the consistency, with three to four yards per carry doesn’t cut it in college football.
I believe Clemson will win this game outright at home, but if they get out to a slow start, Syracuse has the passing offense to make that a tall task. I think the Orange will keep this within two touchdowns, so give me the points.
West Virginia Mountaineers at Kansas Jayhawks (-13.5) – My pick is West Virginia +13.5
The West Virginia Mountaineers (2-1, 2-1 ATS) are coming off a 31-24 home win over Pitt, and was a win against the +7 spread. The Mountaineer defense was able to force some bad throws from Pitt QB Eli Holstein. I like the different looks West Virginia gives on offense, and a gimmicky offense can squeeze out some upset wins in college football.
The Kansas Jayhawks (2-1, 1-2 ATS) are coming off a 42-31 road loss to Missouri, and failed against the +5.5 spread. Kansas got out to a fantastic start by getting to a 21-6 lead, but instantly gave that up by allowing 15 unanswered points in the second quarter. QB Jalon Daniels wasn’t the dynamic offensive weapon as I expect. Kansas just couldn’t get any movement on the ground, and he wasn’t efficient through the air. Missouri defense really had a great outing.
I think Kansas will be appear in a nice bowl game at the end of the year, but I’m not sure they should be double-digit favorites after last week’s collapse. West Virginia’s defense will keep this one close. I’m taking the points in this game.
Ball State Cardinals at Connecticut Huskies (-21) – My pick is Connecticut -21
This is the section where we pick a smaller conference game.
The Ball State Cardinals (1-2, 2-1 ATS) are coming off a 34-29 home win over New Hampshire, which covered the -3 spread. Ball State were among the worst in many preseason rankings coming into the year. Honestly, I think those rankings were warranted after their early season results. They were outscored 8-6 in the second-half of last week’s game against an FCS team.
The UConn Huskies (1-2, 1-1-1 ATS) are coming off a 44-41 overtime road loss to Delaware, and failed against the -8.5 spread. It was a rather rough loss, as it was disappointing to lose to a team in their debut season in the FBS. The Huskies had issues stopping the Blue Hens running game. That will be an issue going forward if Delaware is burning them up.
As a former Ball State student, I don’t have high hopes for the Cardinals this year. Their offense is bad, real bad. It won’t take much more than 21 points to cover this one. I’m taking UConn to cover this one at home.
QUICK HITS
Bowling Green at Louisville (-26.5) – My pick is Bowling Green +26.5
Troy at Buffalo (-6.5) – My pick is Troy +6.5
UNLV at Miami (OH) (+2.5) – My pick is UNLV -2.5
Texas Tech at Utah (-3) – My pick is Texas Tech +3
Arkansas at Memphis (+7.5) – My pick is Arkansas -7.5
Tulane at Ole Miss (-13) – My pick is Tulane +13
Georgia State at Vanderbilt (-27) – My pick is Vanderbilt -27
South Carolina at Missouri (-10.5) – My pick is Missouri -10.5
Stanford at Virginia (-14.5) – My pick is Virginia -14.5
Louisiana-Monroe at UTEP (-6) – My pick is UTEP -6
BONUS PICKS!
Arkansas State at Kennesaw State (+4.5) – My pick is Arkansas State -4.5
North Texas at Army (+2.5) – My pick is North Texas -2.5
Toledo at Western Michigan (+14.5) – My pick is Toledo -14.5
*Delaware at Florida International (-6) – My pick is FIU -6
Texas-San Antonio at Colorado State (+4) – My pick is UTSA -4
Sweetbob’s college football picks against the spread record in previous seasons:
2013: 134-79-8
2014: 148-118-4
2015: 149-118-3
2016: 196-145-6
2017: 183-159-13
2018: 177-157-6
2019: 187-141-8
2020: 170-160-5
2021: 167-151-8
2022: 185-150-5
2023: 155-144-10
2024: 183-164-11
2025: 39-35-1
Follow us on X (formerly Twitter) @Sweetbob & ‘LIKE’ us on Facebook!
About the Author…
Bobby Roberts (otherwise known as Sweetbob) is the creator of ‘America’s White Boy’ and contributor at Project Shanks. His writing has been featured on ESPN’s ‘SportsNation’, Sports Illustrated’s Hot Clicks, Guyspeed, and various other sites. You can follow him on X at @Sweetbob