I went 7-8-1 against the spread during the first week of the 2025 NFL season.

I started the year ‘on mild’, but I like this week’s slate of games and betting lines.

We have some big games like the Eagles traveling to Kansas City to have a Super Bowl rematch with the Chiefs. Also, I think the Broncos at Colts game will be a nice litmus test game for both teams.

Any longshot underdogs covering this weekend?

We pick every NFL game against the spread and throw out a few upsets in Week 2 of the 2025 NFL season.

Washington Commanders at Green Bay Packers (-3.5) – My pick is Green Bay Packers-3.5

Buffalo Bills at New York Jets (+6.5) – My pick is New York Jets +6.5

The Buffalo Bills (1-0, 1-0 ATS) are coming off an epic 41-40 comeback win over the Ravens, which was a win against the spread as the one-point underdog. They scored 16 unanswered points in the final 3:20 of the game. QB Josh Allen really put the team on his back to get the outright win.

The New York Jets (0-1, 1-0 ATS) are coming off a 34-32 home loss to the Steelers, but got the win against the +3 spread. New Jets QB Justin Fields made some smart decisions and wasn’t afraid to let the game flow. He didn’t force anything and RB Breece Hall made some big plays. I was worried about their secondary after elderly QB Aaron Rodgers move the ball well against them.

I was on the fence about this pick, but I think the Jets secondary will bounce-back from a rough outing. The Bills will most likely win this game outright, but Jets tend to keep games against Buffalo close at MetLife Stadium. I think the half-point will come in huge, so I’m taking the points.

Los Angeles Rams at Tennessee Titans (+5.5) – My pick is Los Angeles Rams -5.5

The Los Angeles Rams (1-0, 1-0 ATS) are coming off a 14-9 home win over the Texans, which covered the -3. spread. QB Matthew Stafford was a little banged up heading into the game, but he played well. It’s clear that they want veteran WR Davante Adams to take the spot of former star Cooper Kupp. The Rams defense were able to get to Texans QB C.J. Stroud and keep it a low-scoring affair.

The Tennessee Titans (0-1, 1-0 ATS) are coming off a 20-12 road loss to the Broncos, but was a win against the +9 spread. Rookie QB Cam Ward’s debut half of football was pretty good, but the Broncos defense made adjustments and shut him down. Ward was a prolific passer in college, but he his offensive line and receiving weapons are below standard.

The older Rams QB Matthew Stafford gets, the smarter he is under center. He isn’t going to do anything that surprises you. He makes the open throws and doesn’t go too deep into his reads. Wide Receivers Puka Nacua and Davante Adams will have double-digit targets. I also think RB Kyren Williams will have a big year. I’m taking the Rams to cover on the road.

New England Patriots at Miami Dolphins (-1) – My pick is New England Patriots +1

The New England Patriots (0-1, 0-1 ATS) are coming off a 20-13 home loss to the Raiders, which was also a loss against the -2.5 spread. The Patriots got off to a slow start, but overall, QB Drake Maye had a decent outing. He got almost nothing from his backfield, so I would give his performance a solid B grade. On defense, they held the Raiders to field goals, but the offense failed to answer a few too many times.

The Miami Dolphins (0-1, 0-1 ATS) are coming off a 33-8 road loss to the Colts, which wasn’t even close to the -1 spread as the favorites. QB Tua Tagovailoa was timid and the Dolphins offense just sputtered to a punt, possession after possession. Tua’s arm talent just wasn’t there. I know the Colts secondary was overhauled, but I expected a lot more attempts down the field to wide receivers Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle.

I thought the Dolphins could be a potential playoff team, but then the game against the Colts happened. How can a team come out of the tunnel in Week 1, so freaking flat? I’m taking the points in this one, and may put a few jellybeans on a Patriots moneyline (for the slight juice increase).

Seattle Seahawks at Pittsburgh Steelers (-3) – My pick is Pittsburgh Steelers -3

The Seattle Seahawks (0-1, 0-1 ATS) are coming off a 17-13 home loss to the 49ers, which was also a loss against the +1 spread. The Seahawks offense was a one-trick pony with new QB Sam Darnold spamming the ball to WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba. Their running game was right where we left it last year. They just struggle to get into the next level, which appears to be a continuance from last year. On defense, this is where they are most improved. I think they can help the offense with solid field position in hopes of sneaking a few wins.

The Pittsburgh Steelers (1-0, 0-1 ATS) are coming off a 34-32 road win, but failed to cover against the -3 spread. QB Aaron Rodgers made smart plays in the red zone and spread the ball around. There weren’t any huge gains, but he was able to march. On defense, I was surprised they allowed so many points by the Jets, whose offense wasn’t expected to light up the scoreboard this year.

I doubt Rodgers will repeat the numbers he put up last week, but I believe his defense will pick up the slack. I’m not high on Seattle, but if a game is close in the fourth quarter, anything could happen. I’m betting on the Steelers defense to show up and cover at home.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Cincinnati Bengals (-3.5) – My pick is Cincinnati Bengals -3.5

The Jacksonville Jaguars (1-0. 1-0 ATS) are coming off a 26-10 home win over the Panthers, which easily covered the -4.5 spread. RB Travis Etienne Jr. had a banner day with 143 yards on the ground, and the defense contributed with two picks and a sack. The Jaguars are an improved team, but I’d like to see more contribution from QB Trevor Lawrence against the top teams, like in this week’s contest.

The Cincinnati Bengals (1-0, 0-1 ATS) are coming off a close 17-16 road win over the Browns, which failed to cover the -4.5 spread. The Bengals have tripped out of the gate in the Joe Burrow era, so I guess the fact that they got an outright win was a huge positive. The Bengals offense appeared to be playing in quicksand all game. The Browns ate up a lot of clock, but the Bengals didn’t do much with the time they had the ball. Was it concerning? Yes, but the Bengals tend to turn it around after the first couple games. 

I hope the Bengals got their sluggishness out of their system and Burrow will show why he went to bat for his wide receivers to get huge new contracts. If the Bengals get get up by a score or two, I’d be curious to see if Jacksonville’s offense can get back in it. I’m taking the Bengals to cover at home.

New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys (-5.5) – My pick is Dallas Cowboys -5.5

The New York Giants (0-1, 0-1 ATS) are coming off a 21-6 home loss to the Commanders, which was a loss against the +6 spread. QB Russell Wilson failed to impress in the loss. If he has another bad game, rookie QB Jaxson Dart could be getting his first action soon. The Giants defense played better than expected, as Commanders QB Jayden Daniels didn’t light them up too much.

The Dallas Cowboys (0-1, 1-0 ATS) are coming off a 24-20 road loss to the Eagles, but it was a win against the +8 spread. The teams got off to a hot start on offense, but their second-half was nearly all defense. The only offense in the second-half was an Eagles field goal, which was nearly the entire difference in this game. The Eagles ate up a lot of clock and the Cowboys only trick to move the ball down the field was spamming the ball to WR CeeDee Lamb, who had a couple awful drops. Also, I think RB Javonte Williams could be a nice piece in this Cowboys offense.

This pick is about how unsure I am about the Giants passing offense. Wilson didn’t show me anything in his opener. I think the Cowboys defense is still talented enough to keep the score low enough for their offense to cover this game. It wouldn’t surprise me if Prescott spams the ball to Lamb to get last week’s drops out of his mind. I’m taking the Cowboys to cover at home.

Cleveland Browns at Baltimore Ravens (-11.5) – My pick is Cleveland Browns +11.5

The Cleveland Browns (0-1, 1-0 ATS) are coming off a 17-16 home loss to the Bengals, which was a win against the +4.5 spread. The Browns had a gameplan to keep their offense on the field, and it nearly worked. QB Joe Flacco dink and dunked it down the field to eat up clock. As long as they were getting first downs, that means a few more minutes of clock the Bengals won’t have to score. I look for teams to be ready for this and force Flacco to throw down the field going forward.

The Baltimore Ravens (0-1, 0-1 ATS) are coming off a 41-40 loss, which failed to cover the -1 spread. The Ravens just choked in the fourth quarter. Ravens RB Derrick Henry left off where he finished last year with a 169-yard performance. Also, WR Zay Flowers had an outstanding game with seven catches and 143 yards. Unfortunately, the Bills just made plays late in the fourth quarter and made smart gameclock decisions.

The Ravens and Browns tend to always have some battles, no matter each other’s records. I think the Browns will try a similar ‘drain the clock’ method, and keep the ball in front of Ravens safety Kyle Hamilton. The Ravens will most likely win this game outright, but I could see a 27-17 win, so I’m taking the points.

San Francisco 49ers at New Orleans Saints (+3.5) – My pick is San Francisco 49ers -3.5

The San Francisco 49ers (1-0 , 1-0 ATS) are coming off a 17-13 road win over the Seahawks, which also covered the -1 spread. The game out of that game with a win, but they lost TE George Kittle (hamstring) for a few weeks, and it looks like QB Brock Purdy (shoulder) will miss a few games as well. They also made a change at kicker after kicker Jake Moody had a rough outing. That being said, I’m sure they enjoyed seeing RB Christian McCaffrey contribute at a high level again.

The New Orleans Saints (0-1, 0-1 ATS) are coming off a 20-13 home loss to the Cardinals, which fell just short of the +6 point spread. QB Spencer Rattler had a ho-hum outing in the loss. He threw the ball 46 times with only 27 completions and 214 yards. A lot of his completions weren’t down the field. The Saints will need RB Alvin Kamara to be a large part of the offense, since he’s the most effective part right now.

Am I really laying a single penny on QB Mac Jones in the Lord’s year of 2025? Yes, I think the Niners offense has enough talent on it, mainly RB Christian McCaffrey, that Jones won’t need a game-changing performance to cover this one. I’m taking the Niners to cover on the road.

Chicago Bears at Detroit Lions (-6) – My pick is Detroit Lions -6

The Chicago Bears (0-, 0-1 ATS) are coming off a 27-24 home loss to the Vikings, which also failed against the +1 spread. The Bears appeared to have the win in sights, but the Vikings had an unbelievable fourth quarter. The Bears were able to sneak a touchdown before the two-minute warning, but they needed to get a quick three-and-out, which didn’t happen. Bears QB Caleb Williams missed too many throws late in this one. He just hasn’t shown the ability to make deep throws late in games. On defense, it was a rough fourth quarter for their secondary.

The Detroit Lions (0-1, 0-1 ATS) are coming off a 27-13 home loss to the Packers, which was a loss against the +1.5 spread. QB Jared Goff had a solid outing, but failed to put up many points. He needed to pass a lot since they were down from the start of the game. The Lions defensive performance wasn’t up to expectations. They need needed more quarterback pressure.

The Lions are a better team than they showed in their opener. I think you will see a more-fluid offense and a defense that will cause disruption. I could see them forcing a few turnovers from Williams. I’m taking the Lions to cover at home.

Denver Broncos at Indianapolis Colts (+2.5) – My pick is Indianapolis Colts +2.5

The Denver Broncos (1-0, 0-1 ATS) are coming off a 20-12 home win over the TItans, but came up a point short of the point spread. Denver had trouble finishing drives and it kept the game much closer than it should have been. QB Bo Nix was off in his accuracy and threw two interceptions. I think he would be better off with a run-focused attack, as Nix wasn’t afraid to tuck it and run, when needed. The backfield of RJ Harvey and J.K. Dobbins is a nice pair of backs to have behind you.

The Indianapolis Colts (1-0, 1-0 ATS) are coming off a surprising 33-8 home win over the Dolphins, and was an easy win against the +1 spread. QB Daniel Jones made as good of a debut as you could imagine. They scored points with every possession, and he even found the endzone twice on the ground. Jones running ability has always been a great weapon, but he has taken way too many hits trying to stretch runs for a few extra yards. I worry about his durability for all seventeen games. On defense, their new secondary stepped up in a big way.

I’m not completely sold on Colts QB Daniel Jones yet, but I do think the new faces on their defense will be the key in this game. I like how the secondary played and the front-seven were able to get get pressure on the quarterback in their opener. I’m not going to say the Colts will win outright, but I like the points in this one.

Carolina Panthers at Arizona Cardinals (-7) – My pick is Arizona Cardinals -7

The Carolina Panthers (0-1, 0-1 ATS) are coming off a 26-10 road loss to the Jaguars, which wasn’t close to the +4.5 spread. QB Bryce Young is running out of time to really cement his spot at the franchise cornerstone. I mentioned in this week’s fantasy football post that he needs to managed a balanced offense before he can really be given a larger role in a growing Panthers team. I’m sure the front office wants to see all of their offseason offensive additions to pay dividends right away.

The Arizona Cardinals (1-0, 1-0 ATS) are coming off a 20-13 road win over the Saints, which also covered the -6 point spread. The Cardinals were efficient on offense and their veteran secondary made for a rough outing for QB Spencer Rattler. The Cardinals passing attack will be fantastic this year with WR Marvin Harrison Jr. and TE Trey McBride expected to have huge roles.

I’m high on the Cardinals this year, and think they open the season 2-0. I think QB Kyler Murray is ready to take a big step this year. The Cardinals veteran secondary should perform well against the Panthers young receiving corps. I’m taking the Cardinals to cover at home.

Philadelphia Eagles at Kansas City Chiefs (+1) – My pick is Philadelphia Eagles -1

The Philadelphia Eagles (1-0, 0-1 ATS) are coming off a 24-20 home win over the Cowboys, but failed to cover the -8 point spread. It’s clear the Eagles running game is going to be dangerous again this year. They added RB Tank Bigsby from the Jaguars this week, but he will most likely only get work on returns. They have depth for days with running backs Saquon Barkley, A.J. Dillon and Will Shipley. QB Jalen Hurts had an accurate passing day and added two scores on the ground. 

The Kansas City Chiefs (0-1, 0-1 ATS) are coming off a 27-21 loss to the Chargers in Brazil. which also failed to cover the -3 spread. It was a back-and-forth game we expect from the Chiefs in recent years. They just allow their opponents to stay within a score, which is why they’ve been an awful betting team. This game would have been within reach late had the Chiefs scored on their two-point attempt early in the fourth quarter. The Chiefs secondary was stretched thin by Chargers QB Justin Herbert. He put on a clinic against them in the second-half.

This game had me on the fence, but I think the Eagles offense is so well-rounded. It would be shocking for the Chiefs to start 0-2 on the year, but I think it was just a tough part of their schedule. I expect QB Jalen Hurts to have a big game, so I’m taking the Eagles to cover in the Super Bowl rematch.

Atlanta Falcons at Minnesota Vikings (-3.5) – My pick is Atlanta Falcons +3.5

The Atlanta Falcons (0-1, 0-1 ATS) are coming off a 23-20 home loss to the Buccaneers, and failed against the +1 spread. QB MIchael Penix Jr. had a very good opener. He threw for 298 yards, with a passing touchdown, and a rushing touchdown that got them the lead with a little more than two minutes left in the game. They are using RB Bijan Robinson a lot more in the passing game, and TE Kyle Pitts St. was resurrected from the training room. The Falcons secondary were able to hang with the Bucs passing game, but a touchdown allowed in the final minute was a nail in the coffin.

The Minnesota Vikings (1-0, 1-0 ATS) are coming off a 27-24 road win over the Bears, which also covered the -1 point spread. The J.J. McCarthy Era got off to a rough start, but he was able to take care of business by scoring 21 points in the fourth quarter. It was a nice turnaround, as McCarthy threw a pick-six early in the third quarter and many young quarterbacks would have just mentally packed it in for the day. It showed a lot of maturity and intelligence to lead a big comeback in his first regular season NFL game. 

I’m high on the Falcons this year and I think McCarthy will make some young mistakes early this year. He may have been outstanding in the final quarter of the Bears game, but he did look like a newbie for most of the first three quarters. I think Penix and Robinson will shine in this one, so give me the points.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Houston Texans (-2.5) – My pick is Tampa Bay Buccaneers +2.5

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-0, 1-0 ATS) are coming off a 23-20 road win over the Falcons, which also covered the -1 point spread. The Bucs didn’t put up the crooked numbers in the passing game, but they made the plays when it mattered late in the fourth quarter. Rookie WR Emeka Egbuka snagged a touchdown in the final minute to seal the win. Tampa Bay’s passing game are just fine untl WR Chris Godwin (ankle) is healthy enough to play.

The Houston Texans (0-1, 0-1 ATS) are coming off a 14-9 road loss to the Rams, which also failed against the +3 spread. The Texans offense needs a wide receiver to set themselves apart. WR Nico Collins is talented, but they need a counterpart to help out when Collins is double-teamed. Veteran RB Nick Chubb was good in relief of injured RB Joe Mixon. I would love to see the Texans pickup a pass-catching running back before the trade deadline ends.

The Bucs offense tried for more of a balance offensive attack against the Falcons, but it nearly bit them in the butt. They went back to their bread and butter when the game was on the line. It’s unknown if Godwin will suit up for this one, but Egbuka is a legit future WR1 in Tampa. I’m taking the points in this one.

Los Angeles Chargers at Las Vegas Raiders (+3.5) – My pick is Los Angeles Chargers -3.5

The Los Angeles Chargers (1-0, 1-0 ATS) are coming off a 27-21 win over the Chiefs in Brazil, which was also a win against the +3 spread. The Chargers went into last season as a run-first team, but changed strategies after a few injuries. QB Justin Herbert carried the team in the second-half of last year, and he did it again in their opener. He threw for 318 yards and three touchdowns. He spread the ball around and rookie RB Omarion Hampton got a few key first downs.

The Las Vegas Raiders (1-0, 1-0 ATS) are coming off a 20-13 road win over the Patriots. It was a solid debut for QB Geno Smith, who showed that he deserves the big money he got this offseason. Rookie RB Ashton Jeanty struggled to only gain 38 yards on 19 carries, but did find the endzone in the third quarter. On defense, they were able to get hurries on Patriots QB Drake Maye and end drives with punts or field goal attempts.

The Raiders will be better than people thought they would be going into the year. It will take some time for Jeanty to get up to the speed of the NFL, but he will figure it out soon. That being said, the Chargers was humming against the Chiefs and I don’t see the Raiders getting in their way. I’m taking the Chargers to cover on the road.

*These picks are for entertainment purposes

Sweetbob’s NFL picks against the spread record in previous seasons:
2013: 133-95-10
2014: 131-114-9
2015: 150-108-9
2016: 143-120-13
2017: 144-115-16
2018: 141-118-13
2019: 159-119-7
2020: 152-121-8
2021: 155-129-6
2022: 148-133-8
2023: 132-116-6
2024: 158-120-8
2025: 7-8-1

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About the Author…

Bobby Roberts (otherwise known as Sweetbob) is the creator of ‘America’s White Boy’ and contributor at Project Shanks. His writing has been featured on ESPN’s ‘SportsNation’, Sports Illustrated’s Hot Clicks, Guyspeed, and various other sites. You can follow him on X at @Sweetbob