Are you ready to place your bets?

I went 158-120-8 against the spread last season. It wasn’t my best year, as I just hovered around .500 most weeks, but did have a few huge weeks to make my final numbers look much better. I hope to start the year off with a big week.

I have written a monster post that somewhat acts like miniature season previews for every team. I don’t expect to reach 4,000 words again this year, but you never know.

Which sophomore quarterback will take a big leap in Year Two?

We pick every NFL game against the spread and throw out a few upsets in Week 1 of the 2025 NFL season.

Dallas Cowboys at Philadelphia Eagles (-8) – My pick is Philadelphia Eagles -8

Kansas City Chiefs at Los Angeles Chargers (+3) – My pick is Los Angeles Chargers +3

The Chiefs came up short last year by falling to the Eagles in the Super Bowl 40-22. All of the key players are back this year, so expect another playoff appearance for Kansas City. The Chiefs may have won 15 games last regular season, but they were a bad betting team. They just struggled to extend leads. At the end of the day, that only mattered to bettors holding failed betting tickets.

The Chargers made the playoffs in head coach Jim Harbaugh’s first season at the helm. Their offense went through quite the metamorphosis, as they started the season as a run-first team, and finished with QB Justin Herbert carrying the team on his back. They overhauled the backfield with rookie Omarion Hampton and Najee Harris, so they hope to get more playmaking ability from the younger duo. On defense, they added CB Donte Jackson and rookie EDGE Kyle Kennard.

The Chiefs defense added some young depth, but needed another playmaker in their secondary. I think the Chargers will be able to move the ball through the air. I like their offensive line, and they will have their hands full with the Chiefs pass rush. I can’t predict a outright Chargers win, but I’m taking the points in Brazil.

Miami Dolphins at Indianapolis Colts (-1) – My pick is Miami Dolphins -1

The Dolphins season will once again solely rest on the health of QB Tua Tagovailoa. They haven’t had the depth at quarterback, and still lack dependability at the position. WR Tyreek Hill also had a hand injury that limited him in the final weeks last season. They upgraded their offensive line in hopes to keep Tua upright. On defense, their pass rush weapons are healthy, but their secondary is a question mark.

The Colts game up a game short of making the postseason last year. It was surprising that they were even in that position given their quarterback situation. They signed QB Daniel Jones this offseason, and he beat out former first-round pick Anthony Richardson. They are suggesting that Jones will have a long lease, as well. On defense, they completely overhauled their secondary by adding veterans like cornerbacks Xavien Howard and Charvarius Ward. They were once Pro Bowl-caliber players, but their age and durability could be an issue.

The Dolphins passing game will have an advantage this game. RB De’Von Achane is nursing a calf injury, but is expected to play, as well. I think Jones will be okay for the Colts this year, but may struggle if they get down by double-digits. He hasn’t shown the arm talent to make up much ground in those situations. I think the Dolphins will win outright on the road.

Pittsburgh Steelers at New York Jets (+2.5) – My pick is Pittsburgh Steelers -2.5

In 2024, the Steelers leaned heavily on their defense on their way to a 10-7 record. They main some notable additions on offense by signing QB Aaron Rodgers and trading for WR DK Metcalf. I would have liked for them to add more backfield depth to help Rodgers out more. I’m not sold that he is the game-changing quarterback he was on the Packers. The addition of CB Jalen Ramsey adds to an already talented secondary.

The Jets found themselves near the bottom of the AFC East once again in 2024. They made a change at quarterback by adding QB Justin Fields, who has struggled with consistency at both of his previous teams. The Jets needed to sign more than wide receiver depth to improve that side of the ball. On defense, I like the talent they were able to retain, and think they will be a stout group this year.

The Steelers will be able to lean on their defense again in the opener. They will outmatch the Jets offense, across the board. I’m not expecting a ton of points in this one, but the Steelers will cover on the road.

New York Giants at Washington Commanders (-6) – My pick is Washington Commanders -6

In 2024, the Giants tied for the worst record in the league. The Giants signed veteran Russell Wilson on a one-year deal, hoping to be a nice transition before rookie QB Jaxson Dart is handed the keys. He had success last season in Pittsburgh, and the Giants young wide receivers are underrated. On defense, they upgraded their secondary with CB Paulson Adebo and FS Jevon Holland. They will be better than last year, but I don’t see a playoff appearance in their immediate future.

Washington QB Jayden Daniels exceeded all expectations last year by leading his team to a 12-5 record. They made it all the way to the NFC Championship game. They made some smart trades by bringing in WR Deebo Samuel and LT Laremy Tunsil. I also like the changes back in the backfield by adding Swiss Army knife RB Auskin Ekeler and rookie Jacory Croskey-Merritt. On defense, adding veterans like linebackers Frankie Luvu and Bobby Wagner, and a new pass rush, are the key moves.

The NFC East divisional games have traditionally been close, regardless of the win/loss records. I believe the additions Washington made to improve the weapons around Daniels will be key going forward. I’m taking the Commanders to cover at home.

Carolina Panthers at Jacksonville Jaguars (-3.5) – My pick is Carolina Panthers +3.5

The Panthers looked to have cooled off on QB Bryce Young at times last year. They benched him a few weeks into the season, but once his number was called again, he played much better. I think they are much more comfortable with him under center, and will build around him. They added some weapons to help him out, especially by selecting WR Tetairoa McMillan with the eight overall pick. On defense, they bolstered their defensive line in hopes of improving their weak run defense last year. Also, SS Tre’von Moehrig was a nice addition, and will help all over the field.

This could be a make-or-break year for Jaguars QB Trevor Lawrence. He came into the league with as much buzz as any quarterback in recent memory, but it just hasn’t worked out for him. They added WR/CB Travis Hunter and WR Dyami Brown to help him. They also made some additions to his offensive line. On defense, the Jaguars defense has been the reason they’ve put wins on the board the last few seasons. DE Josh Hines-Allen will lead this group again, and I love the addition of CB Jourdan Lewis.

I believe the Panthers will be better than expected this season. Young has shown maturity by handling his benching well, and he has a talented backfield to lean on as well. He will face a stout Jaguars defense, but I could see the Panthers keeping it within field goal, or less. I’m taking the points in this game.

Arizona Cardinals at New Orleans Saints (+6.5) – My pick is Arizona Cardinals -6.5

In 2024, the Cardinals finished two games shy of the NFC West crown. They put up more points than any team in the division, but their defense often came up short. I believe the Cardinals were correct by just adding depth pieces on offense and going all-in with big additions on defense. DE Josh Sweat should pay off in droves, and will be a nice pass rushing force with DT Dalvin Tomlinson. Rookie CB Will Johnson will be tested a lot this year, but he has shown he had the talent at Michigan, so I think he can handle the pressure.

The Saints ‘Derek Carr experiment’ did not going well last year. The offense was stagnant and they saw WR Chris Olave only play half the games due to injury. They named sophomore QB Spencer Rattler as the starter, but he could have a short leash with rookie Tyler Shough waiting in the wings. On defense, they were ‘fine’ last year, but their only big offseason addition was DT Davon Godchaux. It feels like the Saints just didn’t do enough to upgrade either side of the ball. New head coach Kellen Moore could be in line for a rough first season.

The NFC West could be up for grabs this year. The Niners always seem to have injury issues, so the Cardinals have a playoff berth in their sights. I would normally be hesitant in taking a near-touchdown favorite in Week 1, but I think the Cardinals are that much better. I’m taking the Cardinals to cover on the road.

Cincinnati Bengals at Cleveland Browns (+5.5) – My pick is Cincinnati Bengals -5.5

The Bengals are coming off a down year, as their defense just didn’t get the job done. They gave up 434 points, which was among the worst in the AFC. They couldn’t go out and make many few additions, as they were busy trying to keep their own homegrown talent. They were able to re-sign wide receivers Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins, and finally appeased DE Trey Hendrickson by adding money to his contract this season. On defense, DT T.J. Slaton and LB Oren Bucks will help on that side of the ball.

In 2024, the Browns finished tied for the worst record in the league. They cleared out the quarterback room by bringing back QB Joe Flacco (after a year away), and by drafting Dillon Gabriel and Shedeur Sanders. I would normally bash a team for drafting two quarterbacks, but they could have done much worse with a late round pick than Sanders. They also changed the offensive line coach, which was a disaster last year. The running game was among the worst in the league. On defense, they extended DE Myles Garrett, and drafted highly-touted rookie DT Mason Graham, which is an upgrade.

The Bengals have tripped out of the gate in recent years. I can’t explain it, as they usually bounce-back in Week 2. I think they will buck the trend. I’m just not sold on the Browns quarterback play this year. I think they should just go with Gabriel right away. I’m taking the Bengals to cover on the road.

Las Vegas Raiders at New England Patriots (-3) – My pick is Las Vegas Raiders +3

The Raiders made a big splash by trading for (and extending) QB Geno Smith. It was the official start to the Pete Carroll Era, as he took over as head coach. They upgraded their backfield with rookie RB Ashton Jeanty and veteran Raheem Mostert. I’m also expecting a big year in Year Two for TE Brock Bowers. On defense, the Raiders had to restock their secondary after many departures. I’m not sold that they were able to maintain the same talent level.

The New England Patriots finished 2024 with only four wins. They made a change at head coach by hiring former player from the Tom Brad Era, Mike Vrabel. They hope QB Drake Maye takes a big lead in his second season. He showed flashes last year, but he tried to do too much at times. They added WR Stefon Diggs to help stretch the field. They added some defensive talent with DT Milton Williams and DE Harold Landry. They overpaid for Williams, but he’s an upgrade on the line.

I think the Raiders come out and start the new era strong. I’m not usually bullish on rookie running backs, but Jeanty was insane at Boise State. I think he has a big year and helps lighten the load for Smith. I’m taking the points in this game.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Atlanta Falcons (+2) – My pick is Atlanta Falcons +2

In 2024, the Buccaneers won the NFC South, but it was one of the worst divisions in the league. Their wide receivers have had trouble staying on the field, so they added WR Emeka Egbuka in the draft. QB Baker Mayfield passed for 4,500 yards and threw 41 touchdowns, so he still excelled with Godwin missing half of the year. On defense, they brought back LB Lavonte David and added LB Haason Reddick to secure a solid linebacker corps. I like this year’s group on that side of the ball.

The Falcons had quite the up-and-down season in 2024. They thought QB Kirk Cousins was going help them get to the next level. Cousins started out solid, but he went on an interception spree and lost his job. QB MIchael Penix Jr. made the team better and they were in the mix for the division until the final weeks. RB Bijan Robinson made a big leap last year by rushing for 1,456 yards. On defense, the Falcons have been a work-in-progress the last few years. They did make improvement last year. They used two of their highest draft selections on young, defensive talent. DE James Pearce Jr. will help their pass rush this year.

I like the offseason additions these teams made this offseason. I’m expecting Penix to have a breakout season this year. These two teams will battle for the AFC South this year. This could be a tight, high-scoring affair, so I’m taking the points.

Tennessee Titans at Denver Broncos (-8) – My pick is Denver Broncos -8

In 2024, the Titans won the tiebreakers and was awarded the #1 pick in the draft. They selected QB Cam Ward out of Miami (FL), and will be the only rookie quarterback to start Week 1 this year. The Titans haven’t had consistent play at the position in years, as they have whiffed on the last few young quarterbacks. They upgraded the offensive line by adding RG Kevin Zeitler and LT Dan Moore. They made moves to help setup Ward for success. On defense, the addition of LB Dre’Mont Jones helps lead a reformed linebacker corps.

The Broncos are coming off a 10-7 season, and a playoff appearance. QB Bo Nix had a better-than-expected rookie season. He needed to do a lot, as the traditional running game just wasn’t consistent. He was actually a big part of the running game. They improved that area by signing RB J.K. Dobbins and drafted RB RJ Harvey. On defense, they kept their existing talent, which was one of the better defenses in the league.

The Titans offense should be better this season, but the Broncos defense is a tough first opponent for the rookie quarterback. I don’t expect the Broncos to rack up a ton of points, but the Titans will struggled to put up points. I’m taking the Broncos to cover at home.

San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks (+2.5) – My pick is San Francisco 49ers -2.5

The Niners are coming off a 6-11 season, which was much worse than expected. Their offense is just so dependent on RB Christian McCaffrey, so when he’s out with injury, it puts a strain on all facets of the team. They added some depth on that side of the ball, but losing WR Deebo Samuel will be tough. They are hoping WR Ricky Pearsall has a strong sophomore year. On defense, they lost a ton of talent. New defensive coordinator Robert Saleh will need to earn his paycheck to keep the defense humming. DE Nick Bosa and LB Fred Warner is still in town, but there are a lot of new, unproven talent around them.

In 2024, the Seahawks won double-digit games, but missed the playoffs due to tiebreakers. They traded QB Geno Smith after balking at a big money extension. They signed QB Sam Darnold to a shorter deal, but still eclipsed nine figures. They also traded away star WR DK Metcalf and released veteran WR Tyler Lockett, who are tough to replace. On defense, they re-signed guys like CB Josh Jobe and LB Ernest Jones, but did really make any big signings on that side of the ball.

I’m not high on either of these teams this year. I think the Niners have more playmaking talent, but the overall talent gap isn’t too far off. If the Niners can get a pass rush on Darnold, they can force some mistakes, so I’m taking San Francisco to cover on the road.

Detroit Lions at Green Bay Packers (-2.5) – My pick is Detroit Lions +2.5

The Detroit Lions made it to the Divisional Round last season. They were the best team in the league for most of the season. They suffered some injuries on defense, and they needed some big games from QB Jared Goff to do as far as they did. They lost some talent on the offensive line, but they mostly stood pat on that side of the ball this offseason. On defense, they will be strong again this year. They added CB D.J. Reed an LB Derrick Barnes, so the rich got richer.

In 2024, the NFC North was arguably the best division in the league. The finished 3rd, but still earned a Wild Card spot. QB Jordan Love bounced-back from a leg injury early in the year. He was greatly helped by RB Josh Jacobs, who rushed for 1,329 yards. Love also spread the ball around to a lot of different receivers. On defense, they made the biggest splash this offseason for trading for LB Micah Parsons. It’s a move a team that expects to contend for a Super Bowl makes. They needed to make that move, as they didn’t add many other pieces all offseason.

I expect this game to be a battle. We weren’t sure if LB Micah Parsons (back) will suit up, but he plans to get an injection to suit up. The Packers need him, as the Lions may have one of the better offenses in the league again. I think this will be close, so I’m taking the points.

Houston Texans at Los Angeles Rams (-3) – My pick is Los Angeles Rams -3

The Texans didn’t live up to the expectations last year, but they still won a bad AFC South division. QB C.J. Stroud was ‘fine’ in his sophomore year, but he definitely took a step back. They were able to beat the bad teams, but didn’t perform well against playoff caliber teams. They have some new faces on the offensive line, as they traded LT Laremy Tunsil and LG Kenyon Green. I don’t hate those moves, as neither played well last year. On defense, they acquired FS C.J. Gardner Johnson via trade and added some veterans on the defensive line.

In 2024, the Rams won the NFC South due to tiebreakers. The passing offense was a bit of a wreck when wide receivers Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp were out with injuries. RB Kyren Williams took a big leap last year by rushing for 1,299 yards. They lost Kupp to free agency, and replaced him with veteran WR Davante Adams. I don’t expect Adams can replace the Kupp’s production though. On defense, they tried to keep their own guys, but did add DT Poona Ford to replace Bobby Brown III.

This game is a bit tough to handicap. I’m a bit unsure how much the Texans will miss RB Joe Mixon, who could miss the entire season. RB Nick Chubb has been a very good back, but his age and injury history is a big question mark. I think the Rams have a talent advantage on both sides of the ball. I’m taking the Rams to cover at home.

Baltimore Ravens at Buffalo Bills (+1) – My pick is Baltimore Ravens -1

The Baltimore Ravens will be a perennial Super Bowl contender with QB Lamar Jackson playing at his current level. He had crazy numbers last year, and veteran RB Derrick Henry nearly rushed for 2,000 yards. They added WR DeAndre Hopkins this offseason and didn’t lose too many players on either side of the ball. They are set to have another great year.

I could repeat what I just said about Lamar Jackson, but replace it with Josh Allen. Both guys just do so much and carry their teams. They spent the offseason trying to secure their homegrown talent, but did add significant talent. I like the addition of WR Josh Palmer and LB Joey Bosa. Both guys will play big roles for the Bills this year.

This game could be a coinflip. Jackson and Allen tend to get better as the game progresses. It could come down to whichever quarterback has the ball in their hands last. I really like the Bills front-seven on defense, but they will be tested. I could see Henry wearing them down and making some big gains late in the game. I think the Ravens edges out a cover on the road.

Minnesota Vikings at Chicago Bears (+2) – My pick is Chicago Bears +2

In 2024, the Vikings were 14-3, but struggled with offensively consistency after New Year’s Day. They are giving QB J.J. McCarthy the keys to the offense. He is surrounded with a lot talent, so he will need to hit the ground running. On defense, they spent a lot of money on improvements. They added defensive ends Jonathan Allen and Javon Hargrave, and the secondary was bolstered with cornerbacks Isaiah Rodgers and Jeff Okudah.

The Bears finished at the bottom of a tough NFC North in 2024. They hope the sophomore season of QB Caleb Williams will go much better. He showed flashes of superb talent, but the overall offense was rather flat. They hired former Lions offensive coordinator Ben Johnson as the new head coach. He is expected to add a shot of adrenaline to the offense. The addition of rookies, TE Colston Loveland and WR Luther Burden III, should pay off right away. They also added to the offensive line by acquiring LG Joe Thuney and RB Jonah Jackson. On defense, the Bears should be pretty good this year. The addition of DT Grady Jarrett makes the left side of their defensive line scary with DE Montez Sweat next to him.

I think the Vikings could be a playoff team again this year, but I think the Bears offense will be much better right away. There could be a learning curve for McCarthy to get up to speed after a year away recovering from a knee injury. I think the Bears has a shot to win this game outright at home, so I’m taking the points.

*These picks are for entertainment purposes

Sweetbob’s NFL picks against the spread record in previous seasons:
2013: 133-95-10
2014: 131-114-9
2015: 150-108-9
2016: 143-120-13
2017: 144-115-16
2018: 141-118-13
2019: 159-119-7
2020: 152-121-8
2021: 155-129-6
2022: 148-133-8
2023: 132-116-6
2024: 158-120-8
2025: 0-0-0

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About the Author…

Bobby Roberts (otherwise known as Sweetbob) is the creator of ‘America’s White Boy’ and contributor at Project Shanks. His writing has been featured on ESPN’s ‘SportsNation’, Sports Illustrated’s Hot Clicks, Guyspeed, and various other sites. You can follow him on X at @Sweetbob