I started the year 13-12 against the spread.
This week’s games don’t have the caché as last week’s marquee match-ups. We have a lot of filler games and FBS vs. FCS teams to pad their win totals.
Texas are licking their wounds after falling to Ohio State. They have a gimme game this week when San Jose State travels to Austin.
Will Michigan freshman QB Bryce Underwood perform well against the Oklahoma Sooners?
We at ‘America’s White Boy’ pick 25 college football games against the spread in Week 2 of the 2025-26 NCAA Football season (September 6th, 2025).
Michigan Wolverines at Oklahoma Sooners (-5) – My pick is Michigan Wolverines +5
The Michigan Wolverines (1-0, 0-1 ATS) are coming off a 34-17 home win over New Mexico, which failed to cover the -34.5 spread. True freshman QB Bryce Underwood got his team out to a 17-0 lead, but the team went stagnant on both sides of the ball until late in the third quarter. I think they got caught taking the foot off the gas a bit, as the urgency wasn’t there. You’re going to have moments of inconsistency with a true freshman under center, regardless of his talent ceiling. The Wolverines lost a lot of talent on defense, so they aren’t as stacked as in recent years, but they will still be very good.
The Oklahoma Sooners (1-0, 0-1 ATS) are coming off a 35-3 home win over Illinois State, which was a few points shy of a cover. They had some trouble running the ball in the win, but transfer QB John Mateer was able to carry the offense in his debut. He came from an up-tempo passing offense at Washington State, so he is used to slinging the rock on most downs. Transfer WR Keontez Lewis will have a big season for the Sooners.
The Sooners transfer talent has restocked their cupboard and they are an improved team. The point spread in this game is awfully close to where I think this game could end. I have to take the points in situations like this. I think Underwood could have his first big moment with a good performance against the sooners, so I’m taking the points.
Iowa Hawkeyes at Iowa State Cyclones (-3) – My pick is Iowa State Cyclones -3
The Iowa Hawkeyes (1-0, 0-1 ATS) are coming off a 34-7 win over Albany, which was a fifteen points shy of the point spread. It was clear that Iowa just wanted to get the dub, and get off the field. They spammed the running game and kept the clock running.
The Iowa State Cyclones (2-0, 2-0 ATS) are coming off a 55-7 win over South Dakota, which easily covered the spread. QB Rocco Becht has started the year great with five touchdowns and no interceptions. They are probably better than people thought they were going into the year.
This rivalry game is always heated and five of the last seven meetings have been won by a touchdown or less. Iowa still has a lot of studs on defense, but I think this Iowa State offense can make some gains against them. I’m taking Iowa State to cover at home.
Mississippi Rebels at Kentucky Wildcats (+8.5) – My pick is Ole Miss Rebels -8.5
The Ole Miss Rebels (1-0, 1-0 ATS) are coming off a 63-7 home win over Georgia State, which easily covered the -33.5 spread. New starting QB Austin Simmons will have some growing pains this season, but he has a high ceiling. They have a bit of a rebuild going on, as they’ve lost a lot of talent to the draft in recent years. I don’t expect them to be among to the best in the SEC, but they should solidly be among the second-tier of teams.
The Kentucky Wildcats (1-0, 0-1 ATS) are coming off a 24-16 home win over Toledo, which was two point shy of the points spread. The Wildcats will need their running game to carry the offense. New starting QB Zach Calzada was not impressive, at all. He may have put up fantastic numbers at Incarnate Word, but he needed to play better against a MAC school. I worry about Kentucky against a SEC defense.
I’m sure Calzada is better than how he performed last week, but no one can put a penny on Kentucky after watching that game. If Ole Miss get a double-digit lead, can you trust Calzada to lead a comeback through the air? I have to go with Ole Miss to cover on the road.
Oklahoma State Cowboys at Oregon Ducks (-27.5) – My pick is Oregon Ducks -27.5
The Oklahoma State Cowboys (1-0, 0-1 ATS) are coming off a 27-7 home win over Tennessee-Martin, which was roughly a touchdown shy of a cover. New starting QB Hauss Hejny broke a bone in his foot and will be out for multiple weeks. Redshirt freshman Zane Flores was fine in relief, and will be the starter until Hejny recovers. The offense wasn’t expected to be great going into the season, so this was a big blow to start the year.
The Oregon Ducks (1-0, 1-0 ATS) are coming off a 59-13 home win over Montana State, which easily covered the spread. New starting QB Dante Moore was impressive, as he took care of business and just coasted in the second-half. It’s clear the Ducks are a title contender again this year.
Oklahoma State are expected to finish near the bottom of their conference, and this was before losing their starting quarterback for multiple weeks. Oregon is a well-rounded team, and it wouldn’t surprise me if Moore has another short performance. I think Oregon will cover this spread at home.
UCLA Bruins at UNLV Rebels (+2.5) – My pick is UCLA Bruins -2.5
The UCLA Bruins (0-1, 0-1 ATS) are coming off an embarrassing 43-10 home loss against Utah, which wasn’t close to the +6.5 spread. This was not how transfer QB Nico Iamaleava expected his UCLA debut would go. His defense couldn’t stop a stout Utah rushing attack. UCLA is far from the well-rounded team he played at in Tennessee last year. UCLA will struggle against decent-to-good teams this year.
The UNLV Rebels (2-0, 1-1 ATS) are coming off a 38-21 road win over Sam Houston, which covered the nine-point spread. They still have question marks about their quarterback situation. It’s clear that QB Anthony Colandrea is the more stable option, but it’s easy to get entranced with transfer QB Alex Orji’s athleticism. Orji is still expected to be used at the position at times, but didn’t attempt a pass last game.
UCLA needs to bounce-back from last week’s awful performance, and UNLV is the caliber of teams they need to beat to save their head coach’s job. I expect Iamaleava will be better, and his defense will have an easier time stopping UNLV’s ground game. I’m taking UCLA to cover on the road.
Baylor Bears at SMU Mustangs (-2.5) – My pick is SMU Mustangs -2.5
The Baylor Bears (0-1, 0-1 ATS) are coming off a 38-24 loss to Auburn in their opener. The game was supposed to be much closer, but Baylor’s defense had no answer for Auburn QB Jackson Arnold. They had QB Sawyer Robertson try to carry the offense, but there were a few too many drives without points. He did rack up 419 yards through the air, but the ground game wasn’t there for them.
The SMU Mustangs (1-0, 0-1 ATS) are coming off a 42-13 home win over East Texas A&M, but failed to cover the bloated 51-point spread. SMU laid off the gas in the fourth quarter, which was a smart ‘real football’ move, but that’s the risk of betting the large point spreads to cover. QB Kevin Jennings is looking to build off a solid 2024 season.
SMU’s offense can learn from what Arnold did to Baylor last week. Jennings does have some athleticism, so they could have success with a similar offensive gameplan. If this point spread was any larger, it could give me pause, but I’m taking SMU to cover at home.
Illinois Fighting Illini at Duke Blue Devils (+3) – My pick is Illinois Fighting Illini -3
The Illinois Fighting Illini (1-0, 1-0 ATS) are coming off a 52-3 home win over Western Illinois, that covered the spread by a half-point. QB Luke Altmyer had a great start to the year by throwing three touchdowns, and the offense was just humming. They spent the second-half just trying to keep the clock running.
The Duke Blue Devils (1-0, 0-1 ATS) are coming off a 45-17 home win over Elon, but fell quite short of the cover. Duke came out flat in the first-half and needed a strong fourth quarter to extend the lead. Transfer QB Darian Mensah had a strong game, but his defense just stayed on the field for too long. Mensah is going to be a good one for Duke.
I think this could be a close game, but I do worry about Duke’s defense. Mensah will win games for the Blue Devils this year, but Illinois is one of the better teams in the Big Ten’s second-tier of teams. I think Illinois will cover on the road.
Kansas Jayhawks at Missouri Tigers (-6.5) – My pick is Kansas Jayhawks +6.5
The Kansas Jayhawks (2-0, 1-1 ATS) are coming off a 46-7 home win over Wagner, which failed to cover the spread by a few points. QB Jalon Daniels is hoping to forget about last season’s poor performance. He has played well against Fresno State and Wagner to start the year. He’s a talented quarterback, and just two years ago, he looked like he could have a future playing on Sundays. He needs to perform well in bigger games to get back at that place. The Jayhawks defense is improved and will help give Daniels much better field position.
The Missouri Tigers (1-0, 1-0 ATS) are coming off a 61-6 home win over Central Arkansas, which easily covered the -38.5 point spread. It wasn’t a surprise, as Missouri’s offense does have some playmakers, and should put up crooked numbers against a team like Central Arkansas. Transfer QB Beau Pribula was a nice get for Missouri, and he has a solid backfield to help him out.
I wasn’t high on Kansas going into the season, but if Daniels plays at a high-level, they can push the Jayhawks to win these sort of games. I’m not predicting a Kansas outright win, but I think he can make some plays late in the game to get within a score, so I’m taking the points.
Arizona State Sun Devils at Mississippi State Bulldogs (+6.5) – My pick is Mississippi State Bulldogs
The Arizona State Sun Devils (1-0, 0-1 ATS) are coming off a 38-19 home win over Northern Arizona, which failed to cover the -30.5 point spread. QB Sam Leavitt got his reps in by throwing 39 times for 257 yards and two touchdowns. He also gained another 73 yards and two touchdowns on the ground. The Sun Devils have some talented receivers, and I expect Leavitt to spread the ball around. On defense, I do worry about the Sun Devils, as their talent in the secondary isn’t very high.
The Mississippi State Bulldogs (1-0, 1-0 ATS) are coming off a 34-17 road win over Southern Miss, which covered the -14 point spread. I’ve always had trouble handicapping the Bulldogs until I see them against an SEC team. I think they will be better than expected with veteran QB Blake Shapen making smart decisions. If he can stay healthy, the Bulldogs are a bowl team.
I expect both teams to put up some solid offensive numbers in this game. I like Shapen against the Sun Devils pass defense. I think that match-up will be the key in this one, so I’m taking the points in this game.
Sam Houston Bearkats at Hawaii Rainbow Warriors (-7) – My pick is Hawaii Rainbow Warriors -7
This is the section where we pick a smaller conference game.
The Sam Houston Bearkats (0-2, 0-2 ATS) are coming off a 38-21 home loss to UNLV, which was a loss against the +9 point spread. The Bearkats have been using a two-quarterback system, as transfer QB Mabrey Mettauer came over with head coach Phil Longo, who was the former offensive coordinator at Wisconsin. He played some last week, and has the high ceiling of the pair of QBs. I expect to see both to see action until one separates from the other.
The Hawaii Rainbow Warriors (1-1, 1-1 ATS) are coming off a 40-6 road loss to Arizona, which wasn’t even close to the +15 point spread. They were hoping to build on their opening week win against Stanford, but it was clear that they weren’t ready for the Wildcats. Hawaii couldn’t stop the run, and struggled to get going on offense. They through three interceptions and had an abysmal average on the ground.
Sam Houston’s pass defense will be the reason Hawaii will cover this game. The Bearkats are almost dead-last in passing yards allowed per game. They are the exact opponent Hawaii needs to get their passing game back on track. I’m taking the Rainbow Warriors to cover at home.
QUICK HITS
Northern Illinois at Maryland (-17) – My pick is Maryland -17
UConn at Syracuse (-6.5) – My pick is Syracuse -6.5
San Jose State at Texas (-37) – My pick is San Jose State +37
Kennesaw State at Indiana (-36) – My pick is Indiana -36
Virginia at NC State (-3) – My pick is NC State -3
Miami (OH) at Rutgers (-15) – My pick is Miami (OH) +15
Utah State at Texas A&M (-31.5) – My pick is Utah State +31.5
Georgia Southern at USC (-29) – My pick is USC -29
Boston College at Michigan State (-4.5) – My pick is Michigan State -4.5
Akron at Nebraska (-34) – My pick is Akron +34
BONUS PICKS!
Liberty at Jacksonville State (+6.5) – My pick is JSU +6.5
Missouri State at Marshall (-10) – My pick is Marshall -10
Tulsa at New Mexico State (+4.5) – My pick is Tulsa -4.5
Troy at Clemson (-32) – My pick is Clemson -32
Arkansas State at Arkansas (-23.5) – My pick is Arkansas -23.5
Sweetbob’s college football picks against the spread record in previous seasons:
2013: 134-79-8
2014: 148-118-4
2015: 149-118-3
2016: 196-145-6
2017: 183-159-13
2018: 177-157-6
2019: 187-141-8
2020: 170-160-5
2021: 167-151-8
2022: 185-150-5
2023: 155-144-10
2024: 183-164-11
2025: 13-12-0
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About the Author…
Bobby Roberts (otherwise known as Sweetbob) is the creator of ‘America’s White Boy’ and contributor at Project Shanks. His writing has been featured on ESPN’s ‘SportsNation’, Sports Illustrated’s Hot Clicks, Guyspeed, and various other sites. You can follow him on X at @Sweetbob