I went 7-9 against the spread in Week 17.

Week 18 is absolute worst betting week of the entire season. There are so many factors that go into outcomes that aren’t won or lost on the field. Teams can decide to rest their starters before or at any point in the game. I usually back off any bets in the final week of the season. If you’re down on the year, don’t try to get back to even this week. There are still a ton of opportunities to do that this postseason.

I explain playoff scenarios and which teams have announced that they are resting their starters. This is a bare bones week and I’m giving you the most important information you need to know.

We pick every NFL game against the spread and throw out a few upsets in Week 18 of the 2024 NFL season.

Cleveland Browns at Baltimore Ravens (-20) – My pick is Baltimore Ravens -20

Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers (+2.5) – My pick is Cincinnati Bengals -2.5

The Steelers have clinched a playoff berth, but the AFC North title is still on the line. The Ravens will clinch the division with a win, so it’s basically a given. They will either travel to Houston or face the Ravens next week. The Bengals will need a win and A LOT of help to earn the last Wild Card spot. If Denver or Miami wins on Sunday, everything they do in this game will be moot. They will be playing to win, so I’ll take them to cover on the road.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Indianapolis Colts (-5) – My pick is Jacksonville Jaguars +4

There are no playing stakes in this game. The Jaguars have a lame duck head coach and the Colts are sitting QB Anthony Richardson (back) in their season finale. I’m taking the points in this game.

Buffalo Bills at New England Patriots (+3) – My pick is New England Patriots +3

The Bills are locked into the #2 seed in the East, so they will be resting their starters in this game. The Patriots are in the mix for the #1 overall seed, but I think head coach Jerod Mayo wouldn’t mind a win in the season finale. I’m taking the points in this game.

Washington Commanders at Dallas Cowboys (+6.5) – My pick is Washington Commanders -6.5

The Commanders clinched a Wild Card spot last week, but their seeding is still fluid. Philly will lock in the 6th seed with a win over the Cowboys. They would much rather face the Rams in the first-round of the postseason. The Cowboys are possibly playing for their head coach’s job, whose contract ends at end of season. I’ll take the Commanders to cover on the road.

New York Giants at Philadelphia Eagles (-2.5) – My pick is Philadelphia Eagles -2.5

The Eagles are locked into the #2 seed in the NFC, so they only had a possible rushing record on the line. It appears that the Eagles will sit RB Saquon Barkley and keep him from the season rushing record. I still think the Eagles scrubs will cover against the lowly Giants.

Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers (-10.5) – My pick is Chicago Bears +10.5

The Packers can only receive the #6 or #7 seed in the NFC, but if Commanders win, what happens in this game doesn’t matter. They don’t have the benefit of knowing the outcome since this game is being played at the same time. I think the Packers will sit anyone with a nagging injury. I’m taking the points in this game.

Carolina Panthers at Atlanta Falcons (-8) – My pick is Atlanta Falcons -8

Even though nothing is on the line in this game, it could be a fun watch with two hungry quarterbacks wanting to end the season on a high note. Panthers QB Bryce Young may have done enough to keep his job. I think this could be a fun one, but the Panthers backfield is running on fumes. I’m taking the Falcons to cover at home.

Houston Texans at Tennessee Titans (-1.) – My pick is Tennessee Titans -1.5

Titans QB WIll Levis will get one last chance to change his team’s minds of drafting a young quarterback to replace him. The Texans are locked in as the #4 seed in the AFC. It wouldn’t surprise me if the Titans end up winning outright, so I’ll take the cover.

New Orleans Saints at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-14) – My pick is New Orleans Saints +14

The Bucs need to win to get into the playoffs, which would also win the NFC South. The Saints will not have QB Derek Carr and have nothing else to play for in Week 18. The Bucs could end up with the #3 seed with a win and some help. The double-digit point spread worries me a little, so I’m taking the points.

San Francisco 49ers at Arizona Cardinals (-4.5) – My pick is Arizona Cardinals -4.5

Both of these teams have been eliminated from playoff contention. I expect a lot of backups all around and teams will be handing the ball often in this one. This one is a coinflip, but I’ll take the Cardinals to cover at home.

Seattle Seahawks at Los Angeles Rams (+6.5) – My pick is Seattle Seahawks -6.5

It is being reported that the Rams will rest key offensive starters in this game. They clinched a spot in the playoffs, but they could still improve their seeding with a win. The Seahawks are just playing for draft seeding. Seahawks QB Geno Smith still needs to convince his team that he can be an elite quarterback for them. It doesn’t hurt that Smith can eclipse some milestones in this game that could earn him big money in incentives. I’ll take Seattle to cover on the road.

Miami Dolphins at New York Jets (-1) – My pick is New York Jets -1

The Dolphins still have a shot at making the postseason, but they would need the Broncos to lose to the Chiefs, who are resting their starters. They don’t have the benefit of knowing the outcome of that game as they are both being playing in the slate late games. Miami also has to navigate a win without QB Tua Tagovailoa. The Jets have been eliminated from playoff contention for well over a month at this point. They are expected to move on from QB Aaron Rodgers this offseason. There are still plenty of players that are playing for a job next year. I think the Jets will still get the cover at home.

Los Angeles Chargers at Las Vegas Raiders (+4.5) – My pick is Los Angeles Chargers -4.5

The Chargers will either be a #5 or #6 seed in the AFC. If they get the win, and a Steelers loss, they will be the fifth seed, but will be a #6 seed if they lose or a Steelers win. They will already know the outcome of that game. I believe the Bengals will get the win over the Steelers, but if you feel otherwise, take the points. The Chargers will still have a possible seed improvement on the table, so think they will cover on the road.

Kansas City Chiefs at Denver Broncos (-10.5) – My pick is Denver Broncos -10.5

The Broncos will get the final Wild Card spot with a win. They don’t need any help, so it’s all on them. The Chiefs are sitting everyone as they have locked the #1 seed in the AFC. I hate taking double-digit spreads in the final week of the season, but here I am taking a second one.

Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions (-2.5) – My pick is Detroit Lions -2.5

The NFC North crown is on the line in this game. Both of these teams have earned a playoff spot, but this is arguably the most important game of the week. The Vikings have been playing better than the Lions of late, but I think Detroit pulls this out at home. It is a bit risky as injuries are piling up for Detroit, but they have felt like a special team since Week 3 or 4. I’m taking the Lions to cover at home. 

These picks are for entertainment purposes

Sweetbob’s NFL picks against the spread record in previous seasons:
2013: 133-95-10
2014: 131-114-9
2015: 150-108-9
2016: 143-120-13
2017: 144-115-16
2018: 141-118-13
2019: 159-119-7
2020: 152-121-8
2021: 155-129-6
2022: 148-133-8
2023: 132-116-6
2024: 138-111-7

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About the Author…

Bobby Roberts (otherwise known as Sweetbob) is the creator of ‘America’s White Boy’ and contributor at Project Shanks. His writing has been featured on ESPN’s ‘SportsNation’, Sports Illustrated’s Hot Clicks, Guyspeed, and various other sites. You can follow him on X at @Sweetbob