I had a rough 11-5 record against the spread in Week 15.

It was nice to have a rebound after a couple weeks of middling results. I feel like there was value in many of the betting lines last week.

We have a few more double-digit point spreads this week Don’t get too comfortable now that a 17-point spread covered last week. Double-digit point spreads are still a tough cover in the NFL.

Can the Detroit Lions stay afloat amid a flurry of injuries?

We pick every NFL game against the spread and throw out a few upsets in Week 16 of the 2024 NFL season.

Denver Broncos at Los Angeles Chargers (-2.5) – My pick is Denver Broncos +2.5

Houston Texans at Kansas City Chiefs (-2.5) – My pick is Kansas City Chiefs -2.5

The Houston Texans (9-5, 6-6-2 ATS) are coming off a 20-12 home win over the Dolphins which covered the -2.5 spread.

The Kansas City Chiefs (13-1, 6-8 ATS) are coming off a 21-7 road win over the Browns, which covered the -4.5 spread. That win against the spread was their first one in eight games.

I’ve been down on the Texans since October, but they’ve been a solid betting team. They’ve played a cupcake-heavy schedule with gams against the Lions and Bills sprinkled around. Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes suffered an ankle injury, but looks like he will likely suit up in this game. I think the Chiefs will inch out a cover at home.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Baltimore Ravens (-6.5) – My pick is Pittsburgh Steelers +6.5

The Pittsburgh Steelers (10-4, 10-4 ATS) are coming off a 27-13 road loss to the Eagles, which was a loss against the +5.5 spread.

The Baltimore Ravens (9-5, 7-6-1 ATS) are coming off a 35-14 road win over the Giants, which covered the bloated -17 spread. It was the largest spread covered in the NFL this year.

The Ravens have taken care of business against below average teams, but they stay within the spread against probable playoff teams. I believe this trend will continue as the Steelers beat them by two points in mid-November. It won’t surprise anyone if another Steelers/Ravens game is close. I’m taking the point in this game.

Cleveland Browns at Cincinnati Bengals (-7.5) – My pick is Cincinnati Bengals -7.5

The Cleveland Browns (3-11, 4-10 ATS) are coming off a 21-7 home loss to the Chiefs, which was a loss against the +4.5 line. The Browns have failed against the spread in three-straight games.

The Cincinnati Bengals (6-8, 8-6 ATS) are coming off a 37-27 road win over the Titans, which covered the -6 spread.

The Browns had enough of the Jameis Winston circus and are opting to start QB Dorian Thompson-Robinson in this game. DTR has been a preseason stud, but he has yet to show any spark in a regular season game. Winston gave them the highest of highs and the lowest of lows, but DTR may not even have very high highs. I’m taking the Bengals to cover at home.

Tennessee Titans at Indianapolis Colts (-3.5) – My pick is Indianapolis Colts -3.5

The Tennessee Titans (3-11, 2-12 ATS) are coming off a 37-27 home loss to the Bengals which was a loss against the +6 spread.

The Indianapolis Colts (6-8, 8-6 ATS) are coming off a 31-13 road loss to the Broncos, which was a loss against the spread. After starting the year 7-1 against the spread, they have lost five of their last six games ATS.

The Titans quarterback shuffle is back on with QB Mason Rudolph taking the helm once again. It could mean the end of Will Levis, as they could probably dump him off to a team that want a shot at molding him. It’s clear the Titans will be drafting a quarterback in the upcoming draft. The Colts have their own issues at QB, but his surrounding cast is much better. They should be able to cover this one at home.

Philadelphia Eagles at Washington Commanders (+3) – My pick is Philadelphia Eagles -3

The Philadelphia Eagles (12-2, 9-5 ATS) are coming off a 27-13 home win over the Steelers, which covered the -5.5 spread.

The Washington Commanders (9-5, 8-5-1 ATS) are coming off a 20-19 road win over the Saints, which failed to cover the -7.5 spread. The Commanders are 1-4 ATS over their last five games.

The Commanders have fallen back down to Earth since overachieving in the first-half of the season. The Eagle are doing the exact opposite of that as they have been peaking over the last six weeks. I’m taking the Eagles to cover on the road.

Los Angeles Rams at New York Jets (+3) – My pick is Los Angeles Rams -3

The Los Angeles Rams (8-6, 7-7 ATS) are coming off a 12-6 road win over the Niners, which was a win against the +2.5 line. The Rams are 6-2 ATS since Week 8 of the season.

The New York Jets (4-10, 5-9 ATS) are coming off a 32-25 road win over the Jaguars, which covered the -3 spread.

After holding their own against the Bills, the Rams faced a tough Niners defense (and equally fierce weather). It was a low-scoring affair and I could see that happening against against the Jets. The Rams are the better overall team and I think they will cover on the road, but don’t expect a ton of points overall.

New York Giants at Atlanta Falcons (-8.5) – My pick is Atlanta Falcons -8.5

The New York Giants (2-12, 3-10-1 ATS) are coming off a 35-14 home loss to the Ravens which was a loss against the +17 spread. The Giants have only won win against the spread since Week 6.

The Atlanta Falcons (7-7, 5-8-1 ATS) are coming off a 15-9 road win over the Raiders, which was a push against the -6 line. The Falcons are 0-4-1 ATS over their last five games.

The Falcons are benching QB Kirk Cousins in lieu of seeing what rookie QB Michael Penix Jr. can do for the team. Cousins hit a wall over a month ago and the Falcons have floundered since their win over the Cowboys. I’m expecting the Falcons backfield will get a lot of work and will carry the team to a cover at home.

Arizona Cardinals at Carolina Panthers (+3.5) – My pick is Arizona Cardinals -3.5

The Arizona Cardinals (7-7, 9-5 ATS) are coming off a 30-17 home win over the Patriots, which covered the -6 spread.

The Carolina Panthers (3-11, 6-8 ATS) are coming off a 30-14 home loss to the Cowboys, which failed to cover the -2.5 line. The loss against the spread snapped a five-game winning streak ATS.

The Cardinals are coming out of a tough stretch of their schedule. They suffered three-straight losses against Seattle (twice) and Minnesota before their win over the Patriots. The Cardinals are a lot like the Ravens, they handle their business against bad teams. I think the Panthers still fall into that category. I’m taking the Cardinals to cover on the road.

Detroit Lions at Chicago Bears (+6.5) – My pick is Chicago Bears +6.5

The Detroit Lions (12-2, 9-5 ATS) are coming off a 48-42 home loss to the Bills, which failed to cover the -2.5 betting line. The Lions have now lost three-straight games against the spread.

The Chicago Bears (4-10, 6-6-2 ATS) are coming off a 30-12 road loss to the Vikings, which was a loss against the +7 spread,

The Lions are losing key players ever week to injury. They lost RB David Montgomery and CB Carlton Davis to injury for the foreseeable future. The Lions were the best team in the NFL just a few weeks ago, but so much can change when key players suffer multi-game injuries. I’m taking the points in this game.

Minnesota Vikings at Seattle Seahawks (+3) – My pick is Seattle Seahawks

The Minnesota Vikings (12-2, 9-4-1 ATS) are coming off a 30-12 home win over the Bears, which covered the -7 spread.

The Seattle Seahawks (8-6, 6-7-1 ATS) are coming off a 30-13 home loss to the Packers, which was a loss against the +2.5 spread. It was the Seahawks first loss against the spread since Week 11.

Seahawks QB Geno Smith suffered a knee injury last week, but it appears that he will play through that injury. It’s awful timing as the Seahawks were playing their way into a possible playoff spot. I still think the Seahawks passing offense will be able to hang against the Vikings secondary. I’m taking the points in this game.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Las Vegas Raiders (-1) – My pick is Jacksonville Jaguars +1

The Jacksonville Jaguars (3-11, 7-6-1 ATS) are coming off a 32-25 home loss to the Bears, which is a loss against the +3 spread.

The Las Vegas Raiders (2-12, 5-8-1 ATS) are coming off an ugly 15-9 home loss to the Falcons, which was a push against the betting line.

This will be an awful game to watch, so condolences to those in the Jacksonville and Las Vegas markets. Both of these teams are playing for draft position, but each are also playing for their coach’s jobs. There were moments last week that Jaguars QB Mac Jones looked like his old self. He won’t have to worry about Raiders DE Maxx Crosby this week. I’m taking the point in this game.

San Francisco 49ers at Miami Dolphins (-1.5) – My pick is Miami Dolphins -1.5

The San Francisco 49ers (6-8, 5-9 ATS) are coming off a 12-6 home loss to the Rams, which failed to cover the -2.5 line. The Niners have only won one game against the spread since Week 11.

The Miami Dolphins (6-8, 5-9 ATS) are coming off a 20-12 road loss to the Texans, which was a loss against the +2.5 spread. The Dolphins have lost against the spread in three-straight games.

No team has suffered the same level of injuries as the 49ers. Nearly every star has dealt with at least one significant injury this year, missing multiple games. They are currently on their fourth running back this year, as it’s questionable RB Isaac Guerendo (foot) if he will play this week. He played through it last week with limited success. I expect the Dolphins pass offense will be the reason Miami will cover at home.

New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills (-14) – My pick is New England +14

The New England Patriots (3-11, 5-8-1 ATS) are coming off a 30-17 road loss to the Cardinals, which was a loss against the +6 spread.

The Buffalo Bills (11-3, 9-5 ATS) are coming off a 48-42 road win over the Lions, which was a win against the +2.5 spread. The Bills are 7-2 ATS over their last nine games.

The Bills are the best team in the NFL right now, no question about it. They have beaten the Lions and Chiefs within the last month. That being said, it’s hard to cover a 14-point spread against a division rival. The Patriots have been heading in the wrong direction over the last six weeks, so it’s possible. I think the Bills will come up a little short of a cover, so I’m taking the points.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Dallas Cowboys (+3.5) – My pick is Tampa Bay Buccaneers -3.5

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8-6, 9-5 ATS) are coming off a 40-17 road win over the Chargers, which was a win against the +3 betting line. The Bucs are 5-1 against the spread over their last six games.

The Dallas Cowboys (6-8, 5-8-1 ATS) are coming off a 30-14 road win over the Panthers, which was a win against the +2.5 spread. The Cowboy are 3-1 against the spread over their last four games.

I’m not as down on the Cowboys as most people, so this line isn’t an automatic Bucs bet. Cowboys QB Cooper Rush is getting settled in and has been better over the last couple games. The Bucs are making a run at the playoffs, but their pass defense needs to step up to cover in this one. I’m taking the Bucs to cover on the road.

New Orleans Saints at Green Bay Packers (-14) – My pick is Green Bay Packers -14

The New Orleans Saints (5-9, 6-8 ATS) are coming off a 20-19 home loss to the Commanders, which was a win against the +7.5 spread.

The Green Bay Packers (10-4, 8-6 ATS) are coming off a 30-13 road win over the Seahawks, which covered the -2.5 betting line. The Packers have won against the spread in four-straight games.

The Saints issues at quarterback is the main reason why I’m taking the Packers to cover in this game. Green Bay has enough ballhawks in their secondary to take care of any of the available Saints QBs; the starter will be announced later this week. I hate taking point spreads this larger in the NFL, but this is more about the Packers recent stellar play.

These picks are for entertainment purposes

Sweetbob’s NFL picks against the spread record in previous seasons:
2013: 133-95-10
2014: 131-114-9
2015: 150-108-9
2016: 143-120-13
2017: 144-115-16
2018: 141-118-13
2019: 159-119-7
2020: 152-121-8
2021: 155-129-6
2022: 148-133-8
2023: 132-116-6
2024: 123-95-6

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About the Author…

Bobby Roberts (otherwise known as Sweetbob) is the creator of ‘America’s White Boy’ and contributor at Project Shanks. His writing has been featured on ESPN’s ‘SportsNation’, Sports Illustrated’s Hot Clicks, Guyspeed, and various other sites. You can follow him on X at @Sweetbob