I went 11-11-3 against the spread in Week 12 of the 2024-25 College Football season.
We are getting into some rivalry games this week. Those usually wait until around Thanksgiving, but teams tend to have multiple rivalries nowadays.
One of the more interesting games on the schedule this week is Army versus Notre Dame. The Black Knights come into this game undefeated, but are currently two touchdown-underdogs. It should be a fun game to watch.
We at ‘America’s White Boy’ pick 25 college football games against the spread in Week 13 of the 2024-25 NCAA Football season (November 23rd, 2024).
Indiana Hoosiers at Ohio State Buckeyes (-13.5) – My pick is Indiana Hoosiers +13.5
The Indiana Hoosiers (10-0, 8-2 ATS) are coming off a bye week, and in their previous game, beat Michigan 20-15. It was the closest contest that the Hoosiers have had this year. They’ve played an unbelievably easy schedule, but have taken care of business. It’s hard to nitpick an unbeaten team that have consistently covered games. Their greatly improved offense has been fun to watch.
The Ohio State Buckeyes (9-1, 5-5 ATS) are coming off a 31-7 road win over Northwestern, which failed to cover the -28 point spread. The Buckeyes haven’t been a great betting team this year. They are a great team, but I wouldn’t rank them among the better OSU teams this decade.
I think this line is bloated and the Hoosiers aren’t getting enough respect. Their offense is legit and will surprise a lot of people this week. I’m taking the points in this game.
Ole Miss Rebels at Florida Gators (+10) – My pick is Ole Miss Rebels -10
The Mississippi Rebels (8-2, 7-3 ATS) are coming off a bye week, and in their previous game, beat Georgia 28-10. It wasn’t a surprising outright win, but the margin was eye-opening. The Rebels defense forced a lot of bad throws and Georgia only had 245 total yards. Ole Miss’s offense wasn’t great, but they ended nearly every drive with some points.
The Florida Gators (5-5, 6-4 ATS) are coming off a 27-16 home win over LSU, which was a win against the +3.5 betting line. This was another surprising outcome. The Gators were limping into this game, literally. QB DJ Lagway was able to suit up and he was good enough to get the win. His defense came up big multiple times on third down. They forced LSU to kick field goals, which was the difference.
Ole Miss has an elite passing offense. Florida will not be able to deal with Dart’s big arm and playmakers. The Rebels fly under-the-radar in the SEC due to other teams having more name caché. I’m taking the Rebels to cover on the road.
Colorado Buffaloes at Kansas Jayhawks (+2.5) – My pick is Colorado Buffaloes -2.5
The Colorado Buffaloes (8-2, 8-2 ATS) are coming off a 49-24 home win over Utah, which covered the -13.5 point spread. It was nice to see QB Shedeur Sanders get other receivers involved in the win. He’s been spamming the ball to WR/CB Travis Hunter a lot this year. Wide receivers Will Sheppard, LaJohntay Wester & Drelon Miller got a lot of work in the win.
The Kansas Jayhawks (4-6, 4-6 ATS) are coming off a 17-13 road win over BYU, which was a win against the +3 spread. I expected this outcome as the Jayhawks were a tough matchup for a team like BYU. Kansas has players with experience in big games and like to play slow. The Jayhawks defense was able to step up on third-down.
Kansas are better than their record, but they just don’t match up well against Colorado. The Jayhawks don’t have an offense that can score points in a hurry. I assume Colorado will amass a double-digit lead in the first-half and Kansas won’t be able to eat away at it. I’m taking Colorado to cover on the road.
Army Black Knights at Notre Dame Fighting Irish (-14) – My pick is Notre Dame Fighting Irish -14
The Army Black Knights (9-0, 7-2 ATS) are coming off a bye week, and in their previous game, beat North Texas 14-3. Army has played a weak schedule, but like Indiana, they’ve taken care of business. No teams have taken them by surprise. Their only losses against the spread were by a single point and the other by a half-point. QB Bryson Daily has been a great option quarterback for the Black Knights.
The Notre Dame Fighting Irish (9-1, 8-2 ATS) are coming off a 35-14 home win against Virginia, which barely covered the -20.5 betting line. The Irish racked up an ample 35-0 lead soon after halftime. They laid off the gas after that, and depending when you placed your bet, you may have lost against the spread. Virginia’s backup QB actually had success once he came into the game.
It’s hard to handicap this game since Army’s schedule is so weak. I know I mentioned that about Indiana, but Army is well-below the strength of the Hoosiers schedule. Notre Dame has been pretty good against gimmicky running teams the last few years. I think they will have an answer for Army, so I’m taking Notre Dame to cover.
USC Trojans at UCLA Bruins (+4.5) – My pick is UCLA Bruins +4.5
The USC Trojans (5-5, 6-4 ATS) are coming off a 28-20 home win over Nebraska, which covered the -6.5 spread. QB Jayden Maiava had a very good outing as the new USC starting quarterback. He was greatly helped by RB Woody Marks, who gained 146 yards on the ground. I’m curious to see how consistent the offense will be with Maiava going forward.
The UCLA Bruins (4-6, 6-4 ATS) are coming off a 31-19 road loss at Washington, which was a loss against the +4.5 betting line. It was an overall stinker of a game for UCLA. QB Ethan Garbers had too many drives end with poor play-calling. They were getting nothing on the ground and needed to convert long third-downs.
I view USC and UCLA on the same plane in the Big Ten. They are both in a transition and are rebuilding after some large changes. The Bruins have beaten some good Big Ten teams of late (i.e. Iowa, Rutgers). I think this game will be tight, so I’m taking the points.
Wake Forest Demon Deacons at Miami (FL) Hurricanes (-24.5) – My pick is Wake Forest +24.5
The Wake Forest Demon Deacons (4-6, 3-5-2 ATS) are coming off a 31-24 road loss to North Carolina, which won against the +11 betting line. QB Hank Bachmeier was knocked out of the game with an injury (doesn’t appear serious). Backup QB Michael Kern had a rough outing in relief. I assume the game would have been closer if Bachmeier was healthy.
The Miami (FL) Hurricanes (9-1, 5-5 ATS) are coming off a bye week, and in their previous game, lost at Georgia Tech 28-23. The Hurricane defense sold this game. They just couldn’t stop drives and the Yellow Jackets gained 271 yards on the ground over 48 carries. Georgia Tech implemented a great gameplan and had the ball for almost ten minutes more.
Miami QB Cam Ward is arguably the most dynamic quarterback in the nation. He can rack up yards in a hurry, but his defense can undo a lot of his talent. I’m just not certain they can stretch out a lead large enough to cover this large spread. I’m taking the points in this game.
Kentucky Wildcats at Texas Longhorns (-20.5) – My pick is Texas Longhorns -20.5
The Kentucky Wildcats (4-6, 6-4 ATS) are coming off a 48-6 home win against Murray State, which slightly covered the -41.5 betting line. Kentucky has been in rough shape since their upset win over Ole Miss. They have issues at quarterback and their defense isn’t no longer holding the line. QB Cutter Boley is the future, so I would just give him the reps the rest of the year.
The Texas Longhorns (9-1, 6-4 ATS) are coming off a 20-10 road win over Arkansas, which failed to cover the -12.5 point spread, The Razorbacks are an underrated team, so I wasn’t surprised that this was closer than the spread. Texas knew it was going to be a battle. They definitely ran the ball more than I thought they would.
The Wildcats defensive talent was the reason why Kentucky has a long streak of bowl appearances. That streak will certainly end this year, and it’s because their defense fell apart in the second-half of the season. Texas has so much firepower on offense and should rack up point on Kentucky. I’m taking Texas to cover at home.
Stanford Cardinals at California Golden Bears (-14) – My pick is Stanford Cardinal +14
The Stanford Cardinal (3-7, 3-6-1 ATS) are coming off a 38-35 home win over Louisville, which was a win against the +21 spread. They have had a rough debut season in the ACC. Their defense has been non-existent. I hope QB Ashton Daniels got the game ball for his oustanding performance in the upset win.
The California Golden Bears (5-5, 6-4 ATS) are coming off a 33-25 home loss against Syracuse, which failed to cover the -10. Cal has also had a rough transition to the ACC, but they have played pretty well of late. The Golden Bears defense is the reason they have been an above-average betting team this year.
Stanford versus Cal contests were once one of the biggest marquee rivalry games, but it’s just a blip this year. Neither of these teams have been consistent and are largely having transitional years. Cal will most likely win this game outright, but I’m taking the points.
Wisconsin Badgers at Nebraska Cornhuskers (-2.5) – My pick is Wisconsin Badgers +2.5
The Wisconsin Badgers (5-5, 4-6 ATS) are coming off a 16-13 home loss against Oregon, which was a win against the +13.5 betting line. The Badgers defense did the near-impossible and limited the Ducks to only six point through the first three quarters. I was waiting for Oregon to pull away, but it never happened. If Wisconsin had a better passing game, they would have pulled off the outright upset.
The Nebraska Cornhuskers (5-5, 5-4-1 ATS) are coming off a 28-20 road loss to USC, which was a loss against the +6.5 point spread. Nebraska started the year off well, but they are now in a four-game losing streak (1-3 ATS). They were blown-out at Indiana, but they’ve played Ohio State, UCLA and USC all tight. QB Dylan Raiola is learning on the job and hasn’t been great since their win over Purdue.
The Badgers defense will be the key in this game. Cornhuskers QB Raiola has been forcing throws and has amassed a sizeable about of interceptions in Big Ten play. It wouldn’t even surprise me if Wisconsin wins outright, so I’m taking the points.
Bowling Green Falcons at Ball State Cardinals (+12.5) – My pick is Ball State Cardinals +12.5
This is the section where we pick a smaller conference game.
The Bowling Green Falcons (6-4, 5-5 ATS) are coming off a 31-13 home win against Western Michigan, which covered the -9.5 point spread, QB Connor Bazelak has turned into a solid game manager quarterback. I watched him a lot in his lone season at IU. He is now smart with the ball and doesn’t force anything. The Falcons defense has sets them apart from all the middle-of-the-pack MAC teams.
The Ball State Cardinals (3-7, 7-3 ATS) are coming off a 51-48 overtime road loss to Buffalo, which was a win against the +3.5 betting line. Ball State came into this season as the consensus worst ranked team this preseason. Those predictions weren’t correct and bettors have fared well betting on the Cardinals. They have covered five of their last six games, but have only won outright in two of those. QB Kadin Semonza has been outstanding in MAC conference play this year.
I’m going to ride the Ball State betting wave in this game. I think the Cardinals have improved since the start of the year. They played Vanderbilt close a few weeks ago and have been pretty darn solid ever since. Bowling Green will most likely win this game outright, but I’m taking the points.
QUICK HITS
Purdue at Michigan State (-13.5) – My pick is Michigan State -13.5
UConn at Syracuse (-10.5) – My pick is UConn +10.5
Iowa at Maryland (+6.5) – My pick is Iowa -6.5
BYU at Arizona State (-3) – My pick is BYU +3
Vanderbilt at LSU (-7.5) – My pick is LSU -7.5
Illinois at Rutgers (+1) – My pick is Rutgers +1
UTEP at Tennessee (-41) – My pick is Tennessee -41
Texas Tech at Oklahoma State (+3.5) – My pick is Texas Tech -3.5
Western Kentucky at Liberty (-1.5) – My pick is Liberty -1.5
Boise State at Wyoming (+23) – My pick is Wyoming +23
BONUS PICKS!
Sam Houston at Jacksonville State (-6) – My pick is Jacksonville State -6
Troy at Louisiana-Lafayette (-10) – My pick is Troy +10
New Mexico State at Middle Tennessee (-3) – My pick is MTSU -3
James Madison at Appalachian State (+7) – My pick is James Madison -7
Tulsa at South Florida (-17.5) – My pick is Tulsa +17.5
Sweetbob’s college football picks against the spread record in previous seasons:
2013: 134-79-8
2014: 148-118-4
2015: 149-118-3
2016: 196-145-6
2017: 183-159-13
2018: 177-157-6
2019: 187-141-8
2020: 170-160-5
2021: 167-151-8
2022: 185-150-5
2023: 155-144-10
2024: 153-137-10
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About the Author…
Bobby Roberts (otherwise known as Sweetbob) is the creator of ‘America’s White Boy’ and contributor at Project Shanks. His writing has been featured on ESPN’s ‘SportsNation’, Sports Illustrated’s Hot Clicks, Guyspeed, and various other sites. You can follow him on X at @Sweetbob