I went 6-8 against the spread in Week 10.

I had a rough performance in the early games on Sunday, but I was able to do much better from that point on. I was coming off some solid weeks, so this will hopefully be just a small setback.

There are a lot of fun games on the schedule this week. I want to say that there are four must-watch games this week. Unfortunately, due to injury, the Monday night game between the Texans and Cowboys isn’t one of them.

We pick every NFL game against the spread and throw out a few upsets in Week 11 of the 2024 NFL season.

Washington Commanders at Philadelphia Eagles (-3.5) – My pick is Philadelphia Eagles -3.5

Indianapolis Colts at New York Jets (-3.5) – My pick is New York Jets -3.5

The Indianapolis Colts (4-6, 7-3 ATS) are coming off a 30-20 home loss to the Bills, which was a loss against the +4.5 spread. The Colts had a mistake-filled game, but they still found themselves within a score going into the fourth quarter. QB Joe Flacco struggled mightily against the Bills defense. The silver lining was seeing RB Jonathan Taylor playing well.

The New York Jets (3-7, 3-7 ATS) are coming off a 31-6 road loss to the Cardinals, which wasn’t close to the -2 betting line. I wasn’t surprised that the Cardinals won, but didn’t think it would be so lopsided. I expected the Jets secondary would do a better job. On offense, Jets QB Aaron Rodgers had another poor outing.

Defense will be the key to this game. The Colts are going back to sophomore QB Anthony Richardson going forward. I don’t like his chances against the Jets secondary. They will be motivated to rebound from last week’s performance. I’m taking the Jets to cover at home. 

Minnesota Vikings at Tennessee Titans (+5.5) – My pick is Tennessee Titans +5.5

The Minnesota Vikings (7-2, 6-3 ATS) are coming off a 12-7 road win over the Jaguars, which was two point shy of the spread. Vikings QB Sam Darnold had his worst outing of the season by throwing three picks and zero touchdowns. Minnesota is trying to involve their backfield more, but they had trouble getting into the second-level. Luckily, the Jaguars had the same issues against them.

The Tennessee Titans (2-7, 1-8 ATS) are coming off a 27-17 road loss against the Chargers, which was a loss against the +8 betting line. The Titans went back to probable lame duck QB Will Levis, who had a solid game. He was accurate and didn’t turn the ball over. They were simplifying the offense and leaned on the running game more. I would love to see them involve RB Tony Pollard more in the passing game.

This may not be a popular pick, but I think the Titans will give the Vikings a game. I haven’t liked what I’ve seen from Darnold of late. He’s been a detriment to the team, something he wasn’t at the start of the year. Darnold is also dealing with a hand injury at the moment. The Titans defense is pretty darn good and I think they keep it close. I’m taking the points in this game.

Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers (+3) – My pick is Pittsburgh Steelers +3

The Baltimore Ravens (7-3, 5-4-1 ATS) are coming off a 35-34 home win over the Bengals, which failed to cover the -6 point spread. This one was a fun viewing experience. Both teams made huge plays and it literally came down to the final minute. The Ravens survived a failed Bengals two-point conversion attempt. On defense, I expected a little better from the Ravens secondary.

The Pittsburgh Steelers (7-2, 7-2 ATS) are coming off a 28-27 road win over the Commanders, which won against the +2.5 spread. The Steelers offense was injected with lightning once QB Russell Wilson debuted under center a few games ago. He’s a more complete quarterback and they needed someone with the ability to make WR George Pickens a factor.

Baltimore QB Lamar Jackson hasn’t been able to solve the Steelers riddle. The Ravens are 1-6 (2-5 ATS) in their last seven meetings against the Steelers. I like the trajectory of where the Steelers are going right now. Their defense is playing well and their offense has improved since Wilson took over. The Steelers may not win outright (although it’s a possibility), but I think it will be tight. I’m taking the points in this game.

Cleveland Browns at New Orleans Saints (-1) – My pick is Cleveland Browns +1

The Cleveland Browns (2-7 3-6 ATS) are coming off a bye week, and in their previous game, lost 27-10 to the Chargers. Browns RB Nick Chubb had a rough outing, but I think it was more about the Chargers defensive gameplan. Browns QB Jameis Winston has been known to take chances, and sometimes those chances end up as interceptions. It was clear that the Chargers stacked the box and wanted Winston to throw the ball.

The New Orleans Saints (3-7, 4-6 ATS) are coming off a 20-17 home win over the Falcons, which was a win against the +3.5 spread. The Saints finally snapped a long losing streak with this win. The Falcons are a good team, so this was an impressive win. Saints WR Marquez Valdes-Scantling came out of nowhere in his second game with the team.

The Saints had a great outing against the Falcons, but I don’t think it was a sign of things to come. The Browns had talent on defense to will cause the Saints to struggle. The wild card is Winston, who is inconsistent as hell, but the Browns receivers have the match-up advantage. I think Winston will have a solid game against his former team. I’m taking the point in this game.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Detroit Lions (-14) – My pick is Detroit Lions -14

The Jacksonville Jaguars (2-8, 6-4 ATS) are coming off a 12-7 home loss to the Vikings, which was a win against the +7 spread. Jaguars backup QB Mac Jones lost a winnable game, and it was his fault. He struggled to move the ball and had a lot of completions on short throws. He threw two interceptions and lost a fumble in the loss.

The Detroit Lions (8-1, 7-2 ATS) are coming off a 26-23 road win against the Texans, which was a point shy of the -4 betting line. It’s a miracle that the Lions escaped this game with the win. Lions QB Jared Goff, who was/is in the MVP discussion, threw five interceptions in this game. He was able to bounce-back after his team was down 23-7 at halftime. The Lions scored 20 unanswered points, including the game-winning field goal as time expired. I don’t expect Goff will have a worse game this year.

This point spread is crazy, but I really don’t like the Jaguars offense with Mac Jones. The Lions are coming off their worst game on offense, but they will bounce back. I have zero worry about Goff and think they will cover this bloated spread at home.

Green Bay Packers at Chicago Bears (+5.5) – My pick is Green Bay Packers -5.5

The Green Bay Packers (6-3, 4-5 ATS) are coming off a bye week, and in their previous game, they lost 24-14 to the Lions. Green Bay struggled to stop the run and they dug a hole too deep to escape. Also, too many drives on offense ended up without points. They need to be more consistent on third downs.

 The Chicago Bears (4-5, 4-4-1 ATS) are coming off a 19-3 home loss to the Patriots, which wasn’t close to the -6 betting line. I wasn’t surprised to see the Patriots get the outright win, but the Bears offense is broken. They must have left their playbook overseas since they can’t get in the end zone since coming back from London. The Bears fired offensive coordinator Shane Waldron after this stinker of a game.

The Packers have owned the Bears for years, and it will continue this weekend. The Bears issues on offense will not be fixed within a week. The Packers are coming off a bye and were playing well before their break. I’m taking the Packers to cover on the road.

Las Vegas Raiders at Miami Dolphins (-7.5) – My pick is Miami Dolphins -7.5

The Las Vegas Raiders (2-7, 4-5 ATS) are coming off a bye week, and in their previous game, lost 41-24 to the Bengals. The Raiders benched QB Gardner Minshew in this game in favor of newly-signed QB Desmond Ridder. He did find the end zone, but it appears that the Raiders will stick with Minshew (for the time being).

The Miami Dolphins (3-6, 3-6 ATS) are coming off a 23-15 road win over the Rams, which was a win against the +2 spread. This game was largely a field-goal kicking contest, but the Dolphins did find the end zone twice in this game. Dolphins RB De’Von Achane was a non-factor in this one by gaining only 37 yards on twelve carries. On defense, they bent in the secondary, but they did not break. They kept the Rams talented duo of receivers out of the end zone.

The Dolphins passing attack has been ‘fine’ since Dolphins QB Tua Tagovailoa returned, but he should have one of his best games on Sunday. I don’t think the Raiders are a well-coached team. I expect WR Tyreek Hill will have his best outing since the opening weeks of the season. He’s battling a nagging wrist injury, but he has played through it thus far. I’m taking the Dolphins to cover at home.

Los Angeles Rams at New England Patriots (+4.5) – My pick is Los Angeles Rams -4.5

The Los Angeles Rams (4-5, 3-6 ATS) are coming off a 23-15 home loss to the Dolphins, which was a loss against the -2 spread. The Rams just couldn’t find the end zone in this game. they relied on five field goals to keep it close. I don’t expect many teams will keep wide receivers Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp from getting at least one combined touchdown again this year.

The New England Patriots (3-7, 4-5-1 ATS) are coming off a 19-3 road win over the Bears, which was a win against the +6 betting line. Patriots rookie QB Drake Maye is excelling in a game manager role right now. The Patriots are running the ball more, which is great for the long-term development of the young quarterback. On defense, they forced Bears rookie QB Caleb Williams to only complete short throws, which were ineffective.

The Rams have revived their playoff hopes by winning three of their last four games. They are much better than their record, as they didn’t have Nacua or Kupp for a large part of the year. The Patriots are playing solid as well, but the Rams should be able to force Maye into some bad throws. I’m taking the Rams to cover on the road.

Atlanta Falcons at Denver Broncos (-2.5) – My pick is Atlanta Falcons +2.5

The Atlanta Falcons (6-4, 5-5 ATS) are coming off a 20-17 road loss against the Saints, which was a loss against the -3.5 point spread. It was a surprising outcome since the Falcons were playing really well since their stinker of a game against Seattle in mid-October. Falcons RB Bijan Robinson had an outstanding game amassing 116 yards with two touchdowns. Offense wasn’t the Falcons issue, they had a rough second quarter on defense.

The Denver Broncos (5-5, 7-3 ATS) are coming off a 16-14 road loss to the Chiefs, which was a win against the +7 betting line. I expected this game would be within the spread as the Chiefs have a tendency to just play for the win. It seems to happen even more against fellow AFC West teams. They are perfectly fine just winning by a single point. The Broncos still played a great game. Broncos rookie QB Bo Nix is getting better and better ever month.

The Broncos have improved greatly since the opening weeks of the season. They are smarter with the ball on offense and their defense is better than expected. That being said, I still think the Falcons are a probably playoff team. They have a lot of weapons and QB Kirk Cousins has rebounded after rough outings this year. I’m taking the points in this game.

Seattle Seahawks at San Francisco 49ers (-6.5) – My pick is San Francisco 49ers -6.5

The Seattle Seahawks (4-5, 2-6-1 ATS) are coming off a bye week, and in their previous game, lost 26-20 to the Rams. The Seahawks racked up a lot of yards through the air, but QB Geno Smith threw three picks in the loss. WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba had the best game of his career with 180 receiving yards and two touchdowns. Those three picks played a large role in the loss. One interception in particular was huge as the Rams ran it back 103 yards for a touchdown. That’s a 14-point swing in one play.

The San Francisco 49ers (5-4, 4-5 ATS) are coming off a 23-20 road win over the Niners, which was a loss against the -6.5 spread. It’s clear that RB Christian McCaffrey needs a few games to get back into football shape. He was more effective in the passing game, but needs more reps to regain form in the running game.

The Niners have outright won their last six meetings against the Seahawks. Every since one of those wins have been by more than this point spread. San Francisco’s injury report is getting smaller and are almost at full strength for this game. I expect the Niners defense will force turnovers and extend a lead. I’m taking the 49ers to cover at home.

Kansas City Chiefs at Buffalo Bills (-2.5) – My pick is Kansas City Chiefs +2.5

The Kansas City Chiefs (9-0, 5-4 ATS) are coming off a 16-14 home win over the Broncos, which was a loss against the -7 spread. As I said earlier, the Chiefs have historically been a poor betting team since they ‘play down’ to their opponents. I put that in quotes since it’s more about just getting the win. It’s clear that this year’s offense is different and they aren’t putting up big numbers on the scoreboard.

The Buffalo Bills (8-2, 6-4 ATS) are coming off a 30-20 road win over the Colts, which covered the -4.5 betting line. The Bills should have coasted for a large win, but they kept the Colts in the game for most of the game. Bills QB Josh Allen didn’t take advantage of the Colts young cornerbacks. He had a below-average game, but the running game was effective in this one.

The Chiefs are finding it harder to continue their outright winning streak. This happens with teams extending unbeaten streaks into the second-half of the season. The Chiefs will be prepared for the Bills as they have had some epic battles in recent years. This will be an unbelievably tight game. I’m taking the points in this game.

Cincinnati Bengals at Los Angeles Chargers (-1.5) – My pick is Cincinnati Bengals

The Cincinnati Bengals (4-6, 6-4 ATS) are coming off a 35-34 road loss to the Ravens, which was a win against the +6 point spread. Bengals QB Joe Burrow has been outstanding so far this month. He has a total of nine passing touchdowns over his past two games. His play wasn’t enough to get the outright win last week, but they are the best four-win team in the NFL, by far.

The Los Angeles Chargers (6-3, 6-3 ATS) are coming off a 27-17 home win over the Titans, which covered the spread by two points. The Chargers are currently on a three-game winning streak. They have changed up their offensive gameplan since the start of the year. They aren’t racking up a lot of points, but their defense has been better than expected so far. They have been leaning on the arm of QB Justin Herbert, which has been working.

Joe Burrow and Justin Herbert will be forever linked after the quarterbacks were in the same quarterback class. Burrow was taken before Herbert, but he has yet to beat the Chargers. This year’s Chargers is a different squad as they have a traditional running game and they aren’t so one-dimensional. I think this game will be close, but I am liking how well Burrow is seeing the field at the moment. I’m taking the points in this game.

Houston Texans at Dallas Cowboys (+7.5) – My pick is Houston Texans -7.5

The Houston Texans (6-4, 4-5-1 ATS) are coming off a 26-23 home loss to the Lions, which was a slight win against the +4 betting line. I don’t want to say that the Texans choked that game, but the Lions dominated the second-half. It looked like the Texans had the number of Lions QB Jared Goff. Houston picked him off five times and still lost the game. I can’t remember the last time a defense had that many interceptions and still lost. 

The Dallas Cowboys (3-6, 2-6-1 ATS) are coming off a 34-6 home loss against the Eagles, which wasn’t close to the +7 point spread. The Cowboys are struggling without star QB Dak Prescott. They started QB Cooper Rush in his place, and then played third-string QB Trey Lance once the game was out of control. Neither quarterback had much success. Unless one of these quarterbacks catch fire, it will be a long second-half of the season.

The Cowboys are sticking with QB Cooper Rush this week, but he may have a short leash. Dallas has zero running game and don’t have the elusive talent in the backfield. I do think Rush is better than what he showed last week, but teams want him to throw. They can drop more in coverage and make him look mediocre. I’m taking the Texans to cover on the road.

These picks are for entertainment purposes

Sweetbob’s NFL picks against the spread record in previous seasons:
2013: 133-95-10
2014: 131-114-9
2015: 150-108-9
2016: 143-120-13
2017: 144-115-16
2018: 141-118-13
2019: 159-119-7
2020: 152-121-8
2021: 155-129-6
2022: 148-133-8
2023: 132-116-6
2024: 83-64-5

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About the Author…

Bobby Roberts (otherwise known as Sweetbob) is the creator of ‘America’s White Boy’ and contributor at Project Shanks. His writing has been featured on ESPN’s ‘SportsNation’, Sports Illustrated’s Hot Clicks, Guyspeed, and various other sites. You can follow him on X at @Sweetbob