I went 12-13 against the spread in Week 11 of the 2024-25 College Football season.
We are in a bit of a lull when it comes to game hype. We don’t have a bunch of rivalry games we will see over the final weeks of the regular season. We are basically see a lot of games between teams finishing out their conference schedule.
The marquee games this week wouldn’t make a blip most weeks, but the Georgia/Tennessee game intrigues me. I also want to see if BYU can stay perfect.
We at ‘America’s White Boy’ pick 25 college football games against the spread in Week 12 of the 2024-25 NCAA Football season (November 16th, 2024).
Texas Longhorns at Arkansas Razorbacks (+13.5) – My pick is Texas Longhorns -13.5
The Texas Longhorns (8-1, 6-3 ATS) are coming off a 49-17 home win over Florida, which was a win against the -23 betting line. The Longhorns dominated the game from the opening kick-off. They didn’t allow a point until midway through the third quarter. Texas QB Quinn Ewers had a fantastic game with five touchdowns.
The Arkansas Razorbacks (5-4, 6-3 ATS) are coming off a bye week, and in their previous game, lost to Ole Miss 63-31. Arkansas got wrecked by Mississippi and saw starting QB Taylen Green (knee) get knocked out of the game. It’s not deemed to be too serious, but the team just fell flat when Green left the game. The Razorback defense needs to be better against the pass.
Arkansas was carved up by Ole Miss QB Jaxson Dart, and Texas has just as much talent in their passing game. The Razorbacks had some competitive outings this year, but they’ve sold against the better passing teams in the SEC. I’m taking Texas to cover on the road.
LSU Tigers at Florida Gators (+4) – My pick is LSU Tigers -4
The LSU Tigers (6-3, 3-6 ATS) are coming off a 42-13 home loss to Alabama, which wasn’t even close to the +3 betting line. The Tigers have lost back-to-back games, and the Alabama contest was a complete disaster. The Tigers had no answer for Alabama QB Jalen Milroe’s feet. He rushed for 185 yards and had four rushing touchdowns.
The Florida Gators (4-5, 5-4 ATS) are coming off a 49-17 road loss to Texas, which was a loss against the +23 spread. The Gators had a horrible showing last week. They were without QB DJ Lagway (hamstring) and backup QB Aidan Warner struggled to put up any points. He’s just not up to the task to perform adequately against SEC talent. Lagway is currently practicing and looks like he will be back this week.
Both of these teams are trending downward, but LSU has more talent (and better coaching) right now. I don’t think Lagway’s status is dependent of my bet, I’m taking LSU to cover either way.
Oregon Ducks at Wisconsin Badgers (+13.5) – My pick is Oregon Ducks -13.5
The Oregon Ducks (10-0, 5-5 ATS) are coming off a 39-18 home win over Maryland, which was a slight loss against the -24 spread. Oregon didn’t have a pretty win, as they needed some late-fourth quarter scores to extend a lead against Maryland. It was probably the worst overall performance I’ve seen from the Ducks in awhile.
The Wisconsin Badgers (5-4, 3-6 ATS) are coming off a bye week, and in their previous game, lost at Iowa 42-10. The Badgers had a nice stretch after QB Braedyn Locke took over, but they’ve flopped against the better talent in the conference. They’ve been able to win and cover against the bad teams, but they get smoked against Iowa, Penn State and USC.
If the Badgers have issues with the best in the Big Ten, they will have issues with the absolute best team in the conference. I expect Oregon QB Dillon Gabriel to be able to move the ball well and cover on the road.
Tennessee Volunteers at Georgia Bulldogs (-10) – My pick is Tennessee Volunteers +10
The Tennessee Volunteers (8-1, 5-4 ATS) are coming off a 33-14 home win over Mississippi State, which was a loss against the -26 spread. The Vols defense took advantage of the below-average MSU offensive unit. I would have liked to see the Vols offense get in the end zone more since too many drives ended with field goals. That was the only reason why they came up short against the spread.
The Georgia Bulldogs (7-2, 2-7 ATS) are coming off a 28-10 road loss to Ole Miss, which wasn’t close to the -2 betting line. I think Georgia has an issue with QB Carson Beck. He’s been an interception machine, and he was largely ineffective against Alabama. He doesn’t appear to have much confidence and Georgia was being safe with their play-calling. You can’t beat good teams if you can’t trust your quarterback.
Georgia’s offense just isn’t on par with their recent squads. I think Beck will bounce-back from this mess, but Tennessee is a tough opponent to do that. I’m taking the points in this game.
Clemson Tigers at Pittsburgh Panthers (+11.5) – My pick is Clemson Tigers -11.5
The Clemson Tigers (7-2, 5-4 ATS) are coming off a 24-14 road win over Virginia Tech, which covered the -5.5 spread. Clemson’s defense came up huge in this game. The offense made some mistakes and the defense took care of field position. QB Cade Klubnik does well against the ACC’s bottom-dwellers, but he’s been mediocre against the better teams in the conference.
The Pittsburgh Panthers (7-2, 6-3 ATS) are coming off a 24-19 home loss to Virginia, which failed to cover the -7.5 betting line. Pitt QB Eli Holstein was knocked out of the game with a head injury, and he is a game-time decision for this weekend’s game. Backup QB Nate Yarnell didn’t perform well against Virginia and I have a feeling they may need him on Saturday.
If Holstein was healthy, I think this game could be close. Pitt should be cautious with him and will most likely sit him out of this one. Clemson still has studs on defense and Yarnell will struggle. I’m taking Clemson to cover on the road.
Utah Utes at Colorado Buffaloes (-11.5) – My pick is Colorado Buffaloes -11.5
The Utah Utes (4-5, 3-6 ATS) are coming off a 22-21 home loss to rival BYU, which was a win against the +3 spread. The Utes don’t have much of an offense without injured QB Cameron Rising. They’ve struggled to even get 20 points on the board. They still have a stout defense, but their issues on offense makes them a difficult betting team.
The Colorado Buffaloes (7-2, 7-2 ATS) are coming off a 41-27 road win over Texas Tech, which covered against the -4.5 betting line. Colorado QB Shedeur Sanders is one of the most-improved quarterbacks this season. He was trying to do too much last year and made too many mistakes. He’s been outstanding and is smart to spam the ball to WR/CB Travis Hunter.
If Colorado can get a double-digit lead in the first-half, Utah’s offense will struggle to close the gap. Utah just isn’t the same team this year and will struggle, so I’m taking Colorado to cover at home.
Nebraska Cornhuskers at USC Trojans (-7.5) – My pick is USC Trojans -7.5
The Nebraska Cornhuskers (5-4, 5-3-1 ATS) are coming off a bye week, and in their previous game, lost at home to UCLA 27-20. Nebraska is on a three-game losing streak after starting the year 5-1. QB Dylan Raiola (back) was knocked out of their last game, but he will start against the Trojans on Saturday. He has struggled of late, but you can see the upside. He just needs a lot more reps.
The USC Trojans (4-5, 5-4 ATS) are coming off a bye week, and in their previous game, lost at Washington 26-21. QB Miller Moss had a bad game, it’s as simple as that. He’s been pretty consistent, but Washington had his number. USC’s talent level isn’t where it needs to be. Their debut in the Big Ten has been forgettable.
Nebraska is just trying to survive the season and keep teams from tampering with Raiola. I think USC has more talent overall and with Raiola’s raw skills, I think USC should be able to cover this game at home.
Virginia Cavaliers at Notre Dame Fighting Irish (-22.5) – My pick is Virginia Cavaliers +22.5
The Virginia Cavaliers (5-4, 6-2-1 ATS) are coming off a 24-19 road win over Pittsburgh, which was a win against the +7.5 spread. Virginia has been a great betting team, but the outright results haven’t been there in ACC play. The were able to get the win against Pitt, but a lot of there is due to Pitt QB Eli Holstein suffering a concussion. Largely, they’ve been able to keep within the spread against conference foes.
The Notre Dame Fighting Irish (8-1, 7-2 ATS) are coming off a 52-3 home win over Florida State, which easily covered the -26 betting line. They’ve been on a great run, outright and against the spread. They’ve been able to win and cover against every non-MAC school on their schedule. They’ve been able to handle their business and QB Riley Leonard has been excellent in conference play. He’s been a true dual-threat quarterback in South Bend.
The Irish are on a roll, but I’m expecting a letdown game at some point. Virginia is a solid team and could keep it relatively close. I don’t expect the Cavaliers to win, but it wouldn’t surprise me if they were within two scores by the final whistle. I’m taking the points in this game.
Kansas Jayhawks at BYU Cougars (-2.5) – My pick is Kansas Jayhawks +2.5
The Kansas Jayhawks (3-6, 3-6 ATS) are coming off a 45-36 home win over Iowa State, which was a win against the +2 spread. The Jayhawks had high hopes heading into the season with their duo of QB Jalon Daniels and RB Devin Neal. They haven’t been as successful as last year, but a lot of that is due to their porous defense. That side of the ball makes it hard to win games.
The BYU Cougars (9-0, 7-2 ATS) are coming off a 22-21 win at Utah, which failed to cover the -3 spread. The Cougars are perfect on the year, and until recently, were perfect against the spread. Their schedule has been light, so it’s hard to really get a gauge on them. They do everything well, but they don’t do anything great.
BYU has been great this year, but their strength of schedule makes them difficult to handicap. Kansas still has talent on offense, and their duo of Daniels/Neal has experience against good teams. I think they keep this one close, and it wouldn’t surprise me if they upset the Cougars. I’m taking the points in this game.
FIU Panthers at Jacksonville State Gamecocks (-13.5) – My pick is Jacksonville State Gamecocks -13.5
This is the section where we pick a smaller conference game.
The Florida International Panthers (3-6, 6-3 ATS) are coming off a bye week, and in their previous game, beat New Mexico State 34-13. FIU hasn’t been able to compete against most teams this year. They’ve been a fine betting team, but they needed teams like New Mexico State and Central Michigan to make their record respectable.
The Jacksonville State Gamecocks (6-3, 5-4 ATS) are coming off a 44-37 road win over Louisiana Tech, which failed to cover the -10 spread. The Gamecocks have a fantastic running game. RB Tre Stewart is the star of the offense. He’s been fantastic against conference teams and has racked up a lot of yards in recent games.
This game will be won, and lost, on the ground. As I said above, Jacksonville State can amass a lot of yards through their running game. They rank in the top-five nationally, and unfortunately, FIU have one of the worst run defenses in the country. The Gamecocks should be able to dominate this game, chew the clock and cover. I’m taking Jacksonville State to cover at home.
QUICK HITS
UCLA at Washington (-4) – My pick is Washington -4
Tulane at Navy (+7) – My pick is Navy +7
Houston at Arizona (-1) – My pick is Houston +1
Cincinnati at Iowa State (-9.5) – My pick is Cincinnati +9.5
Rutgers at Maryland (-6) – My pick is Rutgers +6
Arizona State at Kansas State (-9) – My pick is Arizona State +9
Michigan State at Illinois (-3) – My pick is Illinois -3
South Alabama at Louisiana-Lafayette (-7) – My pick is UL-Lafayette -7
Arkansas State at Georgia State (-3) – My pick is Georgia State -3
Coastal Carolina at Marshall (-9.5) – My pick is Marshall -9.5
BONUS PICKS!
Liberty at UMass (+14.5) – My pick is Liberty -14.5
Florida Atlantic at Temple (-3) – My pick is Temple -3
James Madison at Old Dominion (+3) – My pick is James Madison -3
Sam Houston State at Kennesaw State (+15.5) – My pick is Kennesaw State +15.5
San Diego State at UNLV (-21) – My pick is San Diego State +21
Sweetbob’s college football picks against the spread record in previous seasons:
2013: 134-79-8
2014: 148-118-4
2015: 149-118-3
2016: 196-145-6
2017: 183-159-13
2018: 177-157-6
2019: 187-141-8
2020: 170-160-5
2021: 167-151-8
2022: 185-150-5
2023: 155-144-10
2024: 142-126-7
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About the Author…
Bobby Roberts (otherwise known as Sweetbob) is the creator of ‘America’s White Boy’ and contributor at Project Shanks. His writing has been featured on ESPN’s ‘SportsNation’, Sports Illustrated’s Hot Clicks, Guyspeed, and various other sites. You can follow him on X at @Sweetbob