I got wrecked last week and went 9-15-1 against the spread in Week 10 of the 2024-25 College Football season. It was, by far, my worst performance in many years.
We have a fun slate of games this week. A few of the betting lines left me confused at a glance, but realized that some powerhouses are having down seasons. On the other side of the coin, I was equally shocked to see a single-digit point spread in a Vanderbilt game against another SEC school.
The SEC title picture should be more clear after this week’s slate of games. A few teams will fall out of contention with a loss.
We at ‘America’s White Boy’ pick 25 college football games against the spread in Week 11 of the 2024-25 NCAA Football season (November 9th, 2024).
Michigan Wolverines at Indiana Hoosiers (-14) – My pick is Indiana Hoosiers -14
The Michigan Wolverines (5-4, 2-7 ATS) are coming off a 38-17 home loss to Oregon, which was a loss against the +14.5 spread. Michigan’s defense didn’t have an answer for any facet of Oregon’s offensive gameplan. This Michigan defensive unit is a far cry from the defenses they’ve trotted out the last few years. The long bright spot was that QB Davis Warren. He played better than expected and didn’t turn the ball over.
The Indiana Hoosiers (9-0, 8-1 ATS) are coming off a dominant 47-10 road win over Michigan State, which easily covered the -7.5 betting line. The Hoosiers have had one of the easiest schedules in the Big Ten, but they’ve consistently mowed down their opponents and covered every conference game this year. QB Kurtis Rourke returned from a nailbed injury and threw four touchdowns in the win.
The Hoosiers have always played the Wolverines tough. There were many years when the Hoosiers were bad and still played them within a single score. The Hoosiers offense is possible a tick below Oregon, that’s how improved that unit is this season. I’m taking the Hoosiers to cover at home.
Georgia Bulldogs at Ole Miss Rebels (+2.5) – My pick is Georgia Bulldogs -2.5
The Georgia Bulldogs (7-1, 2-6 ATS) are coming off a 34-20 home win against Florida, which eas a half-point shy of the spread. The Bulldogs have had issues covering against fellow SEC teams this season. The Gators actually had the game tied halfway through the fourth quarter. QB Carson Beck has been a turnover machine since their close win against Mississippi State.
The Mississippi Rebels (7-2, 6-3 ATS) are coming off a 63-31 road win against Arkansas, which easily covered the -8 spread. It was an impressive margin against a solid Razorback team. The Rebels have rebounded since their close loss to LSU in mid-October. QB Jaxson Dart had a fantastic outing with 515 passing yards and six touchdowns. He spammed the ball to WR Jordan Watkins, who caught five of those touchdowns.
Ole Miss just had their best performance of the season, but I still think Georgia are the much better team. Georgia needs to figure out how to limit Beck’s passing attempts. He’s a talented quarterback, but he’s having a horrible stretch. He had a ton of turnovers against Texas and the Bulldogs still won that game. Their defense will step up and cover on the road.
Colorado Buffaloes at Texas Tech (+3.5) – My pick is Colorado Buffaloes -3.5
The Colorado Buffaloes (6-2, 6-2 ATS) are coming off a bye, and in their previous game, beat Cincinnati 34-23 at home. It was their six-straight cover in a row and are 5-1 outright during that stretch. QB Shedeur Sanders has been smart with the ball and feeds WR/CB Travis Hunter all game. Hunter was perfect with nine targets for nine receptions and 153 yards in the win.
The Texas Tech Red Raiders (6-3, 5-3-1 ATS) are coming off a 23-22 road win against Iowa State, which won against the +13.5 spread. They’ve been a difficult team to handicap this season. Their defense is really inconsistent and their offense has to make up a lot of ground.
Colorado has been able to beat up on below average teams this year. I would definitely put Texas Tech among that group, especially since Big 12 play began. Colorado was a bad betting team last year and lost people a lot of money. I hope people have been able to recoup some on their current run. I’m taking Colorado to cover on the road.
South Carolina Gamecocks at Vanderbilt Commodores (+3.5) – My pick is Vanderbilt Commodores +3.5
The South Carolina Gamecocks (5-3, 6-2 ATS) are coming off a 44-20 home win over Texas A&M, which easily covered the +3 spread. It was a surprising win and even more surprising margin. They’ve had back-to-back solid outing since their close loss to Alabama. QB LaNorris Sellers has been a solid field general for the Gamecocks.
The Vanderbilt Commodores (6-3, 7-2 ATS) are coming off a 17-7 road win over Auburn, which easily covered the +8.5 spread. Vandy has historically been an awful team, and just as bad against the spread. You have no idea how shocking it was that they’ve won seven games against the spread this year. The Commodores have made large strides on defense. QB Diego Pavia has been solid, and gets most of the credit, but it’s the defense that’s winning games.
It’s been a long time since I’ve seen Vandy have a single-digit spread in an SEC game. They come into this game with a ton of confidence. They’ve had some of their best performances this year at home. I’m going out on a limb and taking the points.
Alabama Crimson Tide at LSU Tigers (+3) – My pick is Alabama Crimson Tide -3
The Alabama Crimson Tide (62, 4-4 ATS) are coming off a bye week, and in their previous game, they beat Missouri 34-0 at home. It was a nice rebound after a rough stretch of games, losing to Vanderbilt and Tennessee. They knocked Mizzou QB Brady Cook out of the game and just wrecked his backup by picking him off three times.
The LSU Tigers (6-2, 3-5 ATS) are coming off a bye week, and in their previous game, lost to Texas A&M 38-23 on the road. It was going to be a tough match-up for LSU, but the margin of the loss was shocking. They’ve been a bad betting team this year, but I thought the line was fair. QB Garrett Nussmeier threw for 405 yards, but he threw three picks in the loss.
LSU has had an easy schedule this year. I’m sure at the start of the season, the loss to USC wasn’t looked at as a bad loss. We now know that the Trojans are only an above average team this year. I don’t want to read too much into Alabama’s blowout of Missouri, since an injury caused it. I think Alabama is the much better team and will cover on the road.
Florida State Seminoles at Notre Dame Fighting Irish (-26) – My pick is Notre Dame Fighting Irish -26
The Florida State Seminoles (1-8, 3-6 ATS) are coming off a 35-11 loss to North Carolina, which wasn’t close to the +2.5 spread. The Seminoles have been a punching bag for the ACC this year. The lines have been a little more manageable of late, but they need to be large to have a chance to win against them.
The Notre Dame Fighting Irish (7-1, 6-2 ATS) are coming off a bye, and in their previous game, smashed Navy 51-14 at MetLife Stadium in New Jersey. The Irish were able to limited Navy’s running game and do some running of their own. They were even able to rest QB Riley Leonard towards the end of the game.
I’ve seen so many close Florida State/Notre Dame meetings over the years, but this one won’t be one of them. I have a hard time believing this won’t be out-of-hand by halftime. Florida State has been that large of a disappointment. I’m taking the Irish to cover at home.
Florida Gators at Texas Longhorns (-21.5) – My pick is Texas Longhorns -21.5
The Florida Gators (4-4, 5-3 ATS) are coming off a 34-20 loss to Georgia, which edged out a win against the +14.5 spread. Freshman QB DJ Lagway (hamstring) was injured in the second quarter in the loss. The injury wasn’t as serious as once thought, so his isn’t ruled out to play this weekend. Backup QB Aidan Warner was outmatched in relief.
The Texas Longhorns (7-1, 5-3 ATS) are coming off a bye week, and in their previous game, beat Vanderbilt 27-24 on the road. The Longhorns didn’t expect this game would do down to the final possession. QB Quinn Ewers nearly threw for 300 yards with three touchdowns (and two picks). The Longhorns nearly got caught laying off the gas.
It’s really hard to see such a large point spread in a Florida/Texas match-up. Even if Lagway suits up and plays, he will be limited with a hamstring injury. Texas will pressure him all game and caught force some mistakes. I’m taking Texas to cover at home.
Miami (FL) Hurricanes at Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (+11) – My pick is Miami Hurricanes -11
The Miami Hurricanes (9-0, 5-4 ATS) are coming off a 53-31 home win over Duke, which barely covered the -21 spread. It wasn’t all smooth sailing in this game as the Hurricanes needed 21 unanswered points to end the game. QB Cam Ward has been outstanding this season. Their defense can be shaky at times, but Ward can score points in a hurry to make up for them.
The Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (5-4, 4-4-1 ATS) are coming off a bye week, and in their previous game, lost to Virginia Tech 21-6 on the road. They’ve struggled in back-to-back games and failed against the line both times. Their offense is running on fumes since QB Haynes King went down with an injury (it looks like he may be ready to return).
Miami’s offense is one of the best in the nation, and Georgia Tech just won’t be able to keep up. Even if King is healthy enough to play, I don’t expect he will be 100% on Saturday. The Hurricanes will be able to cover this spreaad, so give me Miami.
Maryland Terrapins at Oregon Ducks (-25) – My pick is Oregon Ducks -25
The Maryland Terrapins (4-4, 3-5 ATS) are coming off a bye week, and in their previous game, lost to Minnesota 48-23 on the road. Maryland has been blown-out in a few conference games this season. their defense has struggled against the pass this year. It doesn’t bode well for them as they had Oregon and Penn State on their upcoming schedule.
The Oregon Ducks (9-0, 5-4 ATS) are coming off a 38-17 road win against Michigan, which covered the -14.5 spread. The Ducks have been automatic against betting lines since edging out a win at Ohio State in mid-October. Oregon has arguably the most complete offensive attack in the nation.
It’s clear that Maryland has struggled against other top teams in the Big Ten this year…well, unfortunately, Oregon is the best. I don’t like the Terrapins chances this week. Oregon could run up the score at home. I’m taking the Ducks to cover in this game.
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers at New Mexico State Aggies (+18) – My pick is Western Kentucky Hilltoppers -18
This is the section where we pick a smaller conference game.
The Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (6-2, 6-2 ATS) are coming off a 31-14 home win against Kennesaw State, which failed to cover the -24 spread. They got out to a quick lead in the first quarter and never looked back. QB Caden Veltkamp is having a fantastic season. I could see some schools trying to lure him to a bigger program next year.
The New Mexico State Aggies (2-6, 2-6 ATS) are coming off a 34-13 road loss against Florida International, which failed to cover the +7 spread. They’ve been getting drilled in conference play this year. They did have a lone win at home against Louisiana Tech, but nearly every loss has been by double-digits in conference play. They do have some talented running backs, but they have little-to-no passing attack (115 passing yards per game).
Western Kentucky’s average margin of victory of late has been more than this spread. New Mexico State is arguably one of the worst teams in Conference USA. I think Veltkamp will have a big outing and the Hilltoppers will cover on the road.
QUICK HITS
Navy at South Florida (+3) – My pick is Navy -3
Duke at NC State (-3) – My pick is Duke +3
Iowa at UCLA (+5.5) – My pick is Iowa -5.5
Minnesota at Rutgers (+6) – My pick is Minnesota -6
San Jose State at Oregon State (-2.5) – My pick is Oregon State -2.5
Iowa State at Kansas (+3) – My pick is Iowa State -3
Oklahoma at Missouri (+2.5) – My pick is Missouri +2.5
Washington at Penn State (-13.5) – My pick is Penn State -13.5
BYU at Utah (+4) – My pick is BYU – 4
California at Wake Forest (+7) – My pick is Wake Forest +7
BONUS PICKS!
UConn at UAB (+6.5) – My pick is UConn -6.5
Texas State at Louisiana-Monroe (+7) – My pick is Louisiana-Monroe +7
Marshall at Southern Miss (+14) – My pick is Marshall -14
Georgia State at James Madison (-16.5) – My pick is James Madison -16.5
Arkansas State at Louisiana (-16.5) – My pick is Arkansas State +16.5
Sweetbob’s college football picks against the spread record in previous seasons:
2013: 134-79-8
2014: 148-118-4
2015: 149-118-3
2016: 196-145-6
2017: 183-159-13
2018: 177-157-6
2019: 187-141-8
2020: 170-160-5
2021: 167-151-8
2022: 185-150-5
2023: 155-144-10
2024: 130-113-7
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About the Author…
Bobby Roberts (otherwise known as Sweetbob) is the creator of ‘America’s White Boy’ and contributor at Project Shanks. His writing has been featured on ESPN’s ‘SportsNation’, Sports Illustrated’s Hot Clicks, Guyspeed, and various other sites. You can follow him on X at @Sweetbob