I went 8-8 against the spread in Week 8.

I was up and down all week and finally finished even last weekend. The betting lines were close overall, but they should probably start to jack up the Detroit Lions point spreads.

We have 15 games on the schedule this week. It’s still a rather full slate of games, which seems odd for this time of the year.

Now that we are at the halfway point in the year, we can look back and see which teams were undervalued to begin the season. The Broncos top that list, as we didn’t factor in their easy early-season schedule.

We pick every NFL game against the spread and throw out a few upsets in Week 9 of the 2024 NFL season.

Houston Texans at New York Jets (-2) – My pick is Houston Texans +2

New England Patriots at Tennessee Titans (-3.5) – My pick is New England Patriots +3.5

The New England Patriots (2-6, 2-5-1 ATS) are coming off a 25-22 home win over the Jets, which won against the +7 spread. QB Jacoby Brissett was able to step in after rookie QB Drake Maye suffered a concussion. He didn’t wow anyone, but he was smart with the ball and did enough to get the win.

The Tennessee Titans (1-6, 1-6 ATS) are coming off a 52-14 road loss to the Lions, which easily lost against the +13 betting line. The Titans are a wreck and the change to backup QB Mason Rudolph didn’t lead to a positive point-differential. It was a lateral move, at best, but they have now been blown-out in back-to-back games.

The status of Patriots QB Drake Maye is still up in the air, but I still think this will be an ugly game regardless who starts for either team. I’m taking the points in this game.

Los Angeles Chargers at Cleveland Browns (+1.5) – My pick is Los Angeles Chargers -1.5

The Los Angeles Chargers (4-3, 4-3 ATS) are coming off a 26-8 home win over the Saints, which covered the -7.5 point spread. The Chargers were able to take advantage of the Saints quarterback issues. They’ve also been leaning on QB Justin Herbert more, which I think helps them in the long run.

The Cleveland Browns (2-6, 3-5 ATS) are coming off a surprising 29-24 home win over the Ravens, which easily won against the +7 betting line. The move from QB Deshaun Watson to Jamie Winston is a big upgrade in my eyes. Winston may throw a bunch of picks going forward, but he will keep you in games with his arm as well.

The Browns are feeling the high of beating the Ravens, but they are coming into this game banged up. It appears that LB Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah, and a few others on defense, will be out for this one. The Chargers will be able to take advantage of that, so I’m taking Los Angeles to cover on the road.

Washington Commanders at New York Giants (+3.5) – My pick is Washington Commanders -3.5

The Washington Commanders (6-2, 6-1-1 ATS) are coming off a final-second 18-15 home win over the Bears, which covered the -1 spread. QB Jayden Daniels was able to play through injury and heaved a successful Hail May as time expired for a touchdown. Daniels continues to make magic happen for the Commanders.

The New York Giants (2-6, 2-5-1 ATS) are coming off a 26-18 road loss to the Steelers, which lost against the +6 betting line. Defenses are blanketing rookie WR Malik Nabers, so QB Daniel Jones isn’t getting as many open looks. The Giants had a little window of impressive play, but teams have figured them out.

The Giants are currently broken until they figure out how to move the ball with rookie WR Malik Nabers double-teamed. I love the Commanders at the moment. You start to play with some swagger when you win games like they did last week. I’m taking the Commanders to cover on the road.

Denver Broncos at Baltimore Ravens (-10) – My pick is Denver Broncos +10

The Denver Broncos (5-3, 6-2 ATS) are coming off a 28-14 home win over the Panthers, which covered the -13 point spread. Denver continues to have one of the easier schedules in the league, but they are winning and covering games. Rookie QB Bo Nix is able to learn on the job against these low-talent teams, but he’s in for a true test this coming week.

The Baltimore Ravens (5-3, 4-3-1 ATS) are coming off a 29-24 road loss to the Browns, which wasn’t close to the -7 spread as the favorite. It was beyond surprised when the Browns closed out an outright win over the Ravens. They didn’t turn the ball over through the air, in which the Ravens gamble to take advantage. They will need a stronger showing on defense going forward.

I would have jumped on the Ravens -10 just a few weeks ago, but the Broncos seem to hang around in games this year. Nix is playing better and I think they can at least score some garbage time points to get this within the spread, so I’m taking the points.

Las Vegas Raiders at Cincinnati Bengals (-7.5) – My pick is Las Vegas Raiders +7.5

The Las Vegas Raiders (2-6, 4-4 ATS) are coming off a 27-20 home loss to the Chiefs, which inched out a win against the +8.5 spread. QB Gardnew Minshew had a solid outing and didn’t throw an interception (but he did lose a fumble). They had zero rushing attack, so Minshew did well with the hand he was dealt.

The Cincinnati Bengals (3-5, 4-4 ATS) are coming off a 37-17 home loss to the Eagles, which wasn’t close to the -2.5 betting line. I once though the Bengals were one of the best teams in the NFL, regardless of their rough early season record, but it appears their defense isn’t up to par. They also need to give QB Joe Burrow a little help on the ground, as running backs Chase Brown and Zack Moss have been inconsistent.

I don’t like either of these teams at the moment, but if Minshew can take care of the ball, they have a solid chance of keeping it within the spread. The extra half-point could make a huge difference in this game, so I’m taking the points.

New Orleans Saints at Carolina Panthers (+7.5) – My pick is New Orleans Saints -7.5

The New Orleans Saints (2-6, 3-5 ATS) are coming off a 26-8 road loss to the Chargers, which was a loss against the +7.5 spread. The Saints quarterbacking issues have tanked the season for the team. QB Derek Carr was great through the first three weeks of the season, but he slumped and then fell to injury. RB Alvin Kamara looks human again as well.

The Carolina Panthers (1-7, 1-7 ATS) are coming off a 28-14 road loss to the Broncos, which barely lost against the +13 spread, Even though the Panthers have only one win with QB Andy Dalton under center, subbing him for Bryce Young is a downgrade. Teams don’t respect his passing ability and it hurts RB Chuba Hubbard’s ability to run the ball.

The Saints are set to start QB Derek Carr this week, and they should look more like the team they trotted out early this year. I don’t want anything to do with the Panthers, especially if they are only single-digit underdogs. I’m taking New Orleans to cover in this one.

Dallas Cowboys at Atlanta Falcons (-2.5) – My pick is Atlanta Falcons -2.5

The Dallas Cowboys (3-4, 2-4-1 ATS) are coming off a 30-24 road loss to the 49ers, which was a close loss against the +5.5 betting line. The Cowboys might be the worst running team in the league. They should try to trade the Titans for RB Tony Pollard, who excelled in the Cowboys offense. RBs Ezekiel Elliott and Dalvin Cook are both too darn slow.

The Atlanta Falcons (5-3, 4-4 ATS) are coming off a 31-26 road win over the Buccaneers, which covered the -1.5 spread as the favorite. Cousins rebounded from ab abysmal game a week ago. He threw four touchdowns and didn’t throw a pick in the win. Their defense did just enough to get the outright win.

The Falcons have been inconsistent of late, but the Cowboys trumps them in that department. Atlanta has a well-rounded offense that can prolong drives with a duo of solid running backs. The Cowboys get nothing from their backs, and Cowboys QB Dak Prescott has been caught trying to do too much. I’m taking the Falcons to cover at home.

Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills (-6.5) – My pick is Miami Dolphins +6.5

The Miami Dolphins (2-5, 1-6 ATS) are coming off a 28-27 home loss to the Cardinals, which was a loss against the -4.5 spread as the favorite. QB Tua Tagovailoa returned under center, but he wasn’t quite up to the speed of the game. He wasn’t able to connect with WR Tyreek Hill for any deep balls. On defense, they were eaten up by the Cardinals passing game.

 The Buffalo Bills (6-2, 5-3 ATS) are coming off a 31-10 road win over the Seahawks, which easily covered the -3 spread as the favorite. The Bills defense really stepped up in this game. The Seahawks have a top-ten offense, but the Bills just crushed their running game and QB Geno Smith couldn’t do much all game.

The Bills have been on a roll since beating the Jets a few weeks ago. The addition of WR Amari Cooper has been huge for their passing game. That being said, Tagovailoa shook the rust off last week and should be much more comfortable against the Bills below-average secondary. I’m taking the points in this one.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Philadelphia Eagles (-7.5) – My pick is Philadelphia Eagles -7.5

The Jacksonville Jaguars (2-6, 4-4 ATS) are coming off a 30-27 home loss to the Packers, which covered the +3.5 spread by a hair. The Jaguars looked like they were going to force overtime, but Packers backup QB Malik Willis was able to march down the field for the game-winning field goal as time expired. I like the Jaguars offense with more RB Tank Bigsby is featured. Their offense has improved over the last few weeks.

The Philadelphia Eagles (5-2, 4-3 ATS) are coming off a 37-17 road win over the Bengals, which easily covered the +2.5 as the underdog. The Eagles have now won back-to-back blowouts, which is excellent for the confidence. RB Saquon Barkley has been able to get the tough yards and QB Jalen Hurts is getting the vulture touchdowns.

The Eagles offense has big play potential, and the Jaguars defense (31st in yards per play)  have allowed a lot of those this year. Even though the Jaguars offense has been better the last few weeks, I don’t think they will be able to keep up with the Eagles in this one. I’m taking the Eagles to cover at home.

Chicago Bears at Arizona Cardinals (-1) – My pick is Arizona Cardinals -1

The Chicago Bears (4-3, 4-2-1 ATS) are coming off a heartbreaking 18-15 road loss to the Commanders, which lost against the +1 betting line. Honestly, the Bears shouldn’t have been close enough to win that game. They had a forgettable first-half and they rode RB D’Andre Swift in the second half of the game. Bears rookie QB Caleb Williams had a rough day at the office.

The Arizona Cardinals (4-4, 5-3 ATS) are coming off a 28-27 road win over the Dolphins, which won against the +4.5 betting line. It was a strong win for the Cardinals, as they beat a playoff-caliber team with Tua back on the field. Cardinals QB Kyler Murray had his best outing in awhile. He leaned on TE Trey McBride and rookie WR Marvin Harrison Jr. in the win.

I was down on the Cardinals, but then saw what they did against the Dolphins. Arizona’s secondary is a ‘work-in-progress’, but I’m not sold on Bears QB Caleb Williams being able to take advantage of that. This game should be close, so I’m taking the Cardinals to cover at home.

Detroit Lions at Green Bay Packers (+3) – My pick is Detroit Lions -3

The Detroit Lions (6-1, 6-1 ATS) are coming off a 52-14 home win over the Titans, which easily covered the -13 betting line. The Lions are currently the best team in the league. It’s hard to debate against that at the moment. They are playing outstanding on offense, thanks to MVP-contender QB Jared Goff, and their defense has stay strong without injured DE Aidan Hutchinson.

The Green Bay Packers (6-2, 4-4 ATS) are coming off a 30-27 road win over the Jaguars, but fell a half-point shy of the -3.5 point spread. The Packers gasped when QB Jordan Love went down with an injury late in this one (it doesn’t appear to be a major injury), but they were happy to invest in a solid backup. They drove down the field and for the game-winning field goal as time expired.

As I said above, the Lions are the best team in the league right now, so It’s hard to bet against them against such a small point spread. I’m expecting the Lions to force a few turnovers from either an injured-Love or backup Willis. I’m taking the Lions to cover on the road.

Los Angeles Rams at Seattle Seahawks (+1) – My pick is Los Angeles Rams -1

The Los Angeles Rams (3-4, 2-5 ATS) are coming off a 30-20 home win over the Vikings, which easily covered the +2.5 betting line. The Rams were able to play like their former selves as QB Matthew Stafford got his best two wide receivers back. When all three of those guys are on the field, they can hang with nearly any team in the league.

The Seattle Seahawks (4-4, 2-5-1 ATS) are coming off a 31-10 home loss to the Bills, which wasn’t close to the +3 betting line. The Seahawks, as a whole squad, had a bad week. Their offense couldn’t get anything going and their defense was getting cooked at ever level. I expect them to bounce-back quick.

The Seahawks are no longer a feared home team, they’ve been pretty mediocre there this season. These teams know each other well and the Rams will do what works best, feed wide receivers Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua. I’m taking the Rams to cover the single point spread on the road.

Indianapolis Colts at Minnesota Vikings (-5) – My pick is Minnesota Vikings -5

The Indianapolis Colts (4-4, 7-1 ATS) are coming off a 23-20 road loss to the Texans, which was a win against the +4.5 point spread. The Colts almost won this game in spite of QB Anthony Richardson. He only completed ten of 32 passing attempts, which might be one of the worst completion percentages I’ve ever seen with that many attempts.

The Minnesota Vikings (5-2, 5-2 ATS) are coming off a 30-20 road loss to the Rams, which was a loss against the -2.5 betting line. The Vikings have now lost two games in-a-row, but I still think they are a really good team. I expect they will get back into the playoff race going forward.

The Colts pulled the plug on QB Anthony Richardson (for now), and will start QB Joe Flacco. They state that Flacco gives them the best chance to win, and I agree. This game will be closer with him under center, but he doesn’t fix the Colts poor cornerback situation. The Vikings should be able to throw at-will against them. I’m taking the Vikings to cover at home.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Kansas City Chiefs (-9) – My pick is Tampa Bay Buccaneers +9

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-4, 4-4 ATS) are coming off a 31-26 home loss to the Falcons, which was a loss against the +1.5 point spread. The Bucs ran into a motivated Falcons team, and still nearly pulled off the outright win. Bucs QB Baker Mayfield needs to throw a ton of yards to keep up with his porous defense. He made a few too many mistakes on the way to the loss.

The Kansas City Chiefs (7-0, 5-2 ATS) are coming off a 27-20 win over the Raiders, which failed to cover the -8.5 betting line. The Chiefs are clearly the best team in the AFC right now. I was expecting them to beat up on the Raiders, but they got the outright win, which is fine. I like that they are running the offense through TE Travis Kelce again, as they got away from that early this year. They need to keep him involved because they will need him in the red zone late in a game at some point this year.

The Chiefs have been a great betting team this year, but they haven’t faced a point spread this large all season. They’ve notoriously ‘played down’ to their opponents over the years. They haven’t been a ‘run up the score’ sort of team. They get their win and do enough to keep the lead. I’m taking the points in this game.

These picks are for entertainment purposes

Sweetbob’s NFL picks against the spread record in previous seasons:
2013: 133-95-10
2014: 131-114-9
2015: 150-108-9
2016: 143-120-13
2017: 144-115-16
2018: 141-118-13
2019: 159-119-7
2020: 152-121-8
2021: 155-129-6
2022: 148-133-8
2023: 132-116-6
2024: 67-51-5

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About the Author…

Bobby Roberts (otherwise known as Sweetbob) is the creator of ‘America’s White Boy’ and contributor at Project Shanks. His writing has been featured on ESPN’s ‘SportsNation’, Sports Illustrated’s Hot Clicks, Guyspeed, and various other sites. You can follow him on X at @Sweetbob