I went 14-10-1 against the spread in Week 7 of the 2024-25 College Football season.
I was able to edge out a win for the week and profited thanks to a couple moneyline plays (my parlays weren’t as lucky).
The SEC appears to be in a state of flux with Vanderbilt knocking off Alabama and Kentucky. The Commodores haven’t been remotely good in well over a decade. The conference no longer has a consistent doormat to beat up on this year.
We at ‘America’s White Boy’ pick 25 college football games against the spread in Week 8 of the 2024-25 NCAA Football season (October 19th, 2024).
Georgia Bulldogs at Texas Longhorns (-5) – My pick is Texas Longhorns -5
The Georgia Bulldogs (5-1, 1-5 ATS) are coming off a 41-31 home win over Mississippi State, which fell short of the -33 point spread. It’s difficult for them to cover any point spread as they don’t have the same elite defense to hold opponents to single digits. They haven’t covered a game since their opening week thrashing of Clemson.
The Texas Longhorns (6-0, 5-1 ATS) are coming off an impressive 34-3 win over Oklahoma, which easily covered the -17 point spread. The Longhorns have been facing large point spreads as well, but they are scoring 35+ points per game and haven’t allowed more than 13 points in any game this season. Texas might be the best team in the country.
Georgia is still among the best teams in the country, but Texas has leapfrogged them this year. The Longhorns is the more complete team and Georgia’s defense has taken a few steps back this year. Texas has a lot of depth and should be able to extend a lead late in the game, so I’m taking the Longhorns to cover at home.
Kentucky Wildcats at Florida Gators (+2) – My pick is Florida Gators +2
The Kentucky Wildcats (3-3, 4-2 ATS) are coming off a surprising 20-13 home loss to Vanderbilt, which was a far cry from the -13 betting line as the favorite. The Wildcats don’t have an elite offense, so they need to ride their defense and hope they can hold them under 20 points. Vandy QB Diego Pavia was efficient and was able to control the clock for ten more minutes than Kentucky in the win.
The Florida Gators (3-3, 3-3 ATS) are coming off a 23-17 road loss to Tennessee, which covered the +14 spread as the underdog. Not only did the Gators lose the game outright, but QB Graham Mertz tore his ACL. They have been using him in a rotation with freshman QB DJ Lagway with success. Lagway has huge upside, but we will see if the freshman can handle the full-time gig.
Kentucky was Florida’s doormat for a few decades, but the Wildcats have won the last three meetings outright and Kentucky has a 6-0-1 record against the spread over their last seven meetings. This year’s Kentucky team has a strong defense, but their offense just doesn’t have the playmakers as in previous years. I think the Gators will rally around Lagway and keep this one tight, so give me the points.
Alabama Crimson Tide at Tennessee Volunteers (+3) – My pick is Alabama Crimson Tide -3
The Alabama Crimson Tide (5-1, 3-3 ATS) are coming off a 27-25 home win over South Carolina, which was shy of the -21 betting line as the favorite. Alabama struggled to extend any lead and they were even down 19-14 heading into the fourth quarter. The Gamecocks failed to convert a two-point conversion in the final minute of the game, which would have tied the game. It’s clear that the Tide are still reeling from the loss to Vanderbilt in their previous game.
The Tennessee Volunteers (5-1, 4-2 ATS) are coming off a 23-17 overtime home win over Florida, which failed to cover the -14 spread as the favorite. They thankfully only needed one overtime to secure the win. QB Nico Iamaleava is currently in a rough spell and hasn’t thrown a touchdown in back-to-back games. This year’s offense is nowhere close to last year’s prolific unit.
Alabama and Tennessee aren’t at the same level as they were last year, but this is still expected to be a coinflip game. I’m giving a slight advantage to Alabama, as Iamaleava’s recent performance doesn’t give me high hopes that the Volunteers can keep it close. I’m going to roll the dice and predict that Alabama will snap their spread losing streak, so I’m taking the Tide to cover on the road.
Notre Dame Fighting Irish at Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (+11.5) – My pick is GT Yellow Jackets +11.5
The Notre Dame Fighting Irish (5-1, 4-2 ATS) are coming off a 49-7 home win over Stanford, which easily covered the -22.5 point spread. It was nice to see Notre Dame continue to win and cover against lower-level talent. QB Riley Leonard has played great since their upset loss to Northern Illinois in early-September. The Irish defense has played a lot better since that game as well.
The Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (5-2, 4-2-1 ATS) are coming off a 41-34 road win over North Carolina, which covered the -3.5 point spread. Georgia Tech wasn’t expected to be in the top-half of the ACC going into the season, but they’ve been able to take care of business at home. QB Haynes King and RB Jamal Haynes is a great one-two punch on the ground (but very confusing due to their names). King has an arm as well, but Tech is best when they control the clock.
I liked what I saw from Notre Dame last week, but they have a taller task against Georgia Tech. The Irish defense has been great of late, but they’ve been playing some low-level talent. Georgia Tech has been great at home this year and I think they are still underrated when it comes to betting lines. The Irish will most likely win outright, but I think Tech will keep this one close, so give me the points.
Nebraska Cornhuskers at Indiana Hoosiers (-6.5) – My pick is Indiana Hoosiers -6.5
The Nebraska Cornhuskers (5-1, 4-1-1 ATS) are coming off a bye week, and in their previous game, they beat Rutgers 14-7 at home. They’ve been a good betting team thus far, but their schedule is about to get tough with Ohio State and USC coming up in the next few weeks. QB Dylan Raiola has been a nice addition to the team this season, but I do worry when he faces better talent. He failed to complete 50% of his passes against Rutgers.
The Indiana Hoosiers (6-0, 5-1 ATS) are coming off a bye week, and in their previous game, they beat Northwestern 41-24 on the road. They’ve continued their hot streak with QB Kurtis Rourke playing outstanding in new head coach Curt Cignetti’s offense. Rourke shown promise at times at Ohio, but I didn’t expect this level of success. Also, Indiana’s defensive unit is greatly underrated. Their schedule is also about to get crazy with Washington and Michigan coming up soon.
The Cornhuskers are the Hoosiers biggest test of the season so far, but I think they should still be able to churn out a cover. Nebraska’s defense is legit, so we will see if Rourke can still put up great numbers. This game should be close to the betting line, but I think Indiana will still be able to cover at home.
LSU Tigers at Arkansas Razorbacks (+1.5) – My pick is LSU Tigers -1.5
The LSU Tigers (5-1, 2-4 ATS) are coming off a 29-26 overtime home win over Ole Miss, which easily covered the +4 spread as the underdog. LSU didn’t have an efficient game on offense, but they did enough to tie it up in the final minute of regulation. The overtime wasn’t overly crazy, as many overtime games can be in college, as they only needed a touchdown to seal the win. QB Garrett Nussmeier only completed 22 of 51 attempts, but still finished with 337 yards and three touchdowns. It was a rather ugly day for the offense, but a win is a win.
The Arkansas Razorbacks (4-2, 5-1 ATS) are coming off a bye week, and in their previous game, beat Tennessee 19-14 at home. It was a great upset outright win for the Razorbacks. They rebounded after losing to Texas A&M the previous week. They’ve been a fantastic betting team since they came into the season with low expectations. They’ve only been favored twice this season. QB Taylen Green has been shaky under center, but their defense has picked up the slack.
I think we are in line for a fun shoot-out on Saturday. These offenses like to take chances and both have playmakers to put up crooked numbers. I think LSU has the slight edge from a depth perspective. I’m expecting a better game from LSU QB Nussmeier. I’m taking the Tigers to cover on the road.
Colorado Buffaloes at Arizona Wildcats (-3) – My pick is Colorado Buffaloes +3
The Colorado Buffaloes (4-2, 4-2 ATS) are coming off a 31-28 home loss to Kansas State, which covered against the +3.5 spread as the underdog. After being extremely overrated to start the season, Colorado has now covered in four-straight games. Bettors have realized that they are a flawed team, but if their offense is clicking, they can compete against any team in the Big 12. They still have huge issues on defense, but I think they have shown improvement since their loss to Nebraska.
The Arizona Wildcats (3-3, 1-5 ATS) are coming off a 41-19 road loss to BYU, which wasn’t close to the +2.5 spread as the underdog, QB Noah Fifita has a lot of promise, but he is getting eaten alive right now. He’s getting almost nothing from the running game, so he’s forcing a lot of throws. He’s putting his defense in a bad position with these turnovers.
Arizona is making too many mistakes on offense to cover against a team as top-heavy as Colorado. I just don’t think Arizona QB Fifita will be able to be efficient and I expect another high-scoring game. He will need to match Colorado score-for-score, which will be out of reach for him. I’m taking the points in this game.
Iowa Hawkeyes at Michigan State Spartans (+5) – My pick is Iowa Hawkeyes -5
The Iowa Hawkeyes (4-2, 3-3 ATS) are coming off a 40-16 home win over Washington, which easily covered the -3 spread as the favorite. I didn’t think Iowa had this kind of output in them, especially against Washington, who just beat Michigan. RB Kaleb Johnson had an outstanding game and the Hawkeye defense was fantastic on third-downs. It’s an impressive win, and cover, for Iowa.
The Michigan State Spartans (3-3, 3-3 ATS) are coming off a bye week, and in their previous game, lost on the road to Oregon 31-10. It was their third-straight outright loss in-a-row for the Spartans. QB Aidan Chiles has been disappointment since transferring from Oregon State. He has more interceptions than touchdowns and is only completing 56% of his passes on the year. The Spartans defense isn’t good enough to make up for the offense’s mistakes.
Iowa’s defense isn’t as elite as in previous seasons, but this year’s squad should be able to handle MSU QB Aidan Chiles. I don’t expect the Spartans will be able to do much through the air. I expect Iowa to easily cover this spread on the road.
Wisconsin Badgers at Northwestern Wildcats (+7.5) – My pick is Wisconsin Badgers -7.5
The Wisconsin Badgers (4-2, 2-4 ATS) are coming off a 42-7 road win over Rutgers, which easily covered the +1 spread as the slight underdog. The Badgers offense appears to have improved since QB Braedyn Locke took over as the starting quarterback. They are coming off back-to-back blowout wins over Purdue and Rutgers, the later was a shock to me. RB Tawee Walker had an outstanding game rushing for 198 yards and three touchdowns.
The Northwestern Wildcats (3-3, 2-4 ATS) are coming off a 37-10 road win over Maryland, which easily covered the +10.5 spread as the underdog. Maryland made some mistakes and Northwestern took advantage of those. Maryland had a horrible outing and were tripping over their feet all game. I rarely say that a team beat themselves, but the Terrapins were their own worst enemy.
I went back-and-forth with this pick, but I think Wisconsin’s momentum will push them to a cover this week. I do hate the half-point, but the Badgers defense should be able to take care of Northwestern’s stagnant offense. I’m taking the Badgers to cover on the road.
Kent State Golden Flashes at Bowling Green Falcons (-20.5) – My pick is BGSU Falcons -20.5
This is the section where we pick a smaller conference game.
The Kent State Golden Flashes (0-6, 1-5 ATS) are coming off a 37-35 home loss to Ball State, which covered the spread by a single point as the +3 underdog. Kent State has to amass a lot of points to just have shot to win a game outright. Ball State was one of their better shots at getting a win, but they ran out of time in the fourth quarter.
The Bowling Green Falcons (2-4, 3-3 ATS) are coming off a 17-7 home loss to Northern Illinois, which wasn’t close to the -3.5 spread as the favorite. They are currently on a three-game losing streak against the spread. They’ve played a tough non-conference schedule with Texas A&M and Penn State, and they were within a touchdown in each of those contests. They haven’t started out the MAC schedule as strong. Those close games really bloated the betting lines, which have been hard to cover.
I would love if this line was a few points smaller, but I think Bowling Green should be able to run up the score on Kent State. The Falcons pass defense is pretty darn good, and Kent State’s lone glimmer of hope on offense is the arm of third-string QB Tommy Ulatowski, but I’m taking Bowling Green to cover at home.
QUICK HITS
East Carolina at Army (-15.5) – My pick is Army -15.5
Michigan at Illinois (+3.5) – My pick is Michigan -3.5
Oregon at Purdue (+27.5) – My pick is Oregon -27.5
Fresno State at Nevada (+3) – My pick is Nevada +3
SMU at Stanford (+16) – My pick is SMU -16
Colorado State at Air Force (+7) – My pick is Air Force +7
Kansas State at West Virginia (+3) – My pick is Kansas State -3
Hawaii at Washington State (-19) – My pick is Hawaii +19
North Texas at Memphis (-12) – My pick is North Texas +12
New Mexico at Utah State (+2) – My pick is New Mexico -2
BONUS PICKS!
Texas State at Old Dominion (+10) – My pick is Texas State -10
Louisiana-Lafayette at Coastal Carolina (+4.5) – My pick is Coastal Carolina +4.5
Central Michigan at Eastern Michigan (-3.5) – My pick is Central Michigan +3.5
Western Michigan at Buffalo (+1) – My pick is Western Michigan -1
James Madison at Georgia Southern (+10) – My pick is James Madison -10
Sweetbob’s college football picks against the spread record in previous seasons:
2013: 134-79-8
2014: 148-118-4
2015: 149-118-3
2016: 196-145-6
2017: 183-159-13
2018: 177-157-6
2019: 187-141-8
2020: 170-160-5
2021: 167-151-8
2022: 185-150-5
2023: 155-144-10
2024: 95-76-4
Follow us on X (formerly Twitter) @Sweetbob & ‘LIKE’ us on Facebook!
About the Author…
Bobby Roberts (otherwise known as Sweetbob) is the creator of ‘America’s White Boy’ and contributor at Project Shanks. His writing has been featured on ESPN’s ‘SportsNation’, Sports Illustrated’s Hot Clicks, Guyspeed, and various other sites. You can follow him on X at @Sweetbob