I went 14-10-1 against the spread in Week 5 of the 2024-25 College Football season.
We don’t have a huge marquee games this week like Alabama vs Georgia, but I think the schedule has a depth of very good games on the schedule.
We have some notable Big Ten match-ups this week with Iowa travelling to Ohio State and Michigan flies out West to face Washington.
We at ‘America’s White Boy’ pick 25 college football games against the spread in Week 6 of the 2024-25 NCAA Football season (October 5th, 2024).
Iowa at Ohio State (-19.5) – My pick is Iowa Hawkeyes +19.5
The Iowa Hawkeyes (3-1, 2-2 ATS) are coming off a bye week, and in their previous game, covered against Minnesota in a 31-14 road win. Iowa’s offense is leaps and bounds better than last year’s God awful unit, but they are still flawed. They need a strong running game as QB Cade McNamara is there to take care of the ball, but not win games with his arm. His job is to hand off to Kaleb Johnson and Jaziun Patterson.
The Ohio State Buckeyes (4-0, 2-2 ATS) are coming off a 38-7 road win over Michigan State, which covered the -23.5 point spread. The Buckeyes got off to a slow start against the Spartans, but really only needed the middle two quarters to dominate in the blowout win. The Buckeyes defense left MSU QB Aidan Chiles looking like a true freshman.
Iowa’s defense isn’t up there with the recent Hawkeyes teams, but they are still pretty darn good. I think Iowa’s running game is good enough to get first downs and extend drives. That will be able to drain the clock and Ohio State may not have the time to extend a lead large enough to cover the spread. I’m taking the points in this game.
Auburn at Georgia (-24) – My pick is Georgia Bulldogs -24
The Auburn Tigers (2-3, 2-3 ATS) are coming off a 27-21 home loss against Oklahoma, which failed to cover the point spread as the favorite. Auburn played well in the loss, but the fourth quarter interception touchdown by OU was the nail in the coffin. I hate to use the term ‘choke’, but this is a pretty solid example of it. They had a 21-10 lead in the early fourth quarter, but gave it up in a hurry.
The Georgia Bulldogs (3-1, 1-3 ATS) are coming off a 41-34 road loss to Alabama, which failed to cover the spread as the two-point favorite. The Tide were up 28-0 early in the first quarter, but Georgia didn’t give up and had a one-point lead with 2:31 left in the game. Alabama connected with fast freshman WR Ryan Williams for a touchdown to seal the win. Carson Beck’s early mistakes were near-impossible to erase, but he almost did just that.
I realize that this point spread appears to be a bloated line, but Georgia has revenge on their minds. The reason I’m taking Georgia to cover is due to Auburn’s defensive liability of giving up large plays. I don’t see Auburn scored much in this game, so Georgia may not need to score more than 31 points to cover, so that’s what I’m betting on this week.
Indiana at Northwestern (+14) – My pick is Indiana Hoosiers -14
The Indiana Hoosiers (5-0, 4-1 ATS) are coming off a 42-28 home win over Maryland, which covered the -7.5 spread as the favorite. It’s been a long time since Indiana has locked-in a bowl bid this early in the season. New head coach Curt Cignetti has this team humming. The offense under QB Kurtis Rourke has been impressive.
The Northwestern Wildcats (2-2, 1-3 ATS) are coming off a bye week. In their previous game, they suffered a 24-5 road loss to Washington, which was a few points shy of the +12 spread as the underdog. Northwestern was out-matched and out-coached in their loss against Washington. QB Jack Lausch was their entire offense, the good and bad of it. Northwestern is going to have a rough time in Big Ten play.
I’m going to ride the Hoosiers until they do something to make me second-guess that choice. I realize they haven’t played top talent, but they have taken care of every team on their schedule. Just the ability to show up every Saturday and be consistent, is huge in college football. I’m sure this will be pretty close to the point spread, but I’m taking the Hoosiers to cover on the road.
Clemson at Florida State (+14.5) – My pick is Clemson Tigers -14.5
The Clemson Tigers (3-1, 3-1 ATS) are coming off a 40-14 home win over Stanford, which covered the point spread by a few points. Clemson put up had put up 40+ points in three-straight games. It’s the first time that has happened in quite some time. Their offense just haven’t been racked up crooked numbers like that since former QB Trevor Lawrence was under center. Current QB Cade Klubnik wasn’t very accurate in the win, but he still managed to throw four touchdowns.
The Florida State Seminoles (1-4, 1-4 ATS) are coming off a 42-16 road loss to EMU, which wasn’t even close to the +6 point spread as the underdog. I sound like a broken record, but QB D.J. Uiagalelei continues to disappoint me. I know a lot of his issues are institutional and the program’s issue, but some of his recent interceptions were rough.
I’ve been hard on Clemson this year, but I think I’ve been even more rough on Florida State. The Seminoles have been either unbelievable, like last year, or a complete disappointment. I think Clemson is undervalued in this line, so I’m taking the Tigers to cover on the road.
Michigan at Washington (-2.5) – My pick is Michigan Wolverines +2.5
The Michigan Wolverines (4-1, 1-4 ATS) are coming off a 27-24 home win over Minnesota, which was shy of the -10.5 spread as the favorite. Michigan had a big lead heading into the fourth quarter, but Minnesota was able to score 21 points in the final act. I think the more teams see Michigan QB Alex Orji, the more of an adequate gameplan teams will have for the athletic quarterback. I think you saw some oft those adjustments late in the Minnesota game.
The Washington Huskies (3-2 , 2-3 ATS) are coming off a 21-18 road loss to Rutgers, which was two point shy of the +1 spread as the underdog. Rutgers was a doormat in the Big Ten for a decade, but head coach Greg Schiano came back to the program and lifted them up. He’s able to eat up yards on the ground and with defense. Washington wasn’t able to stop their long drives. I expected more from QB Will Rogers when he transferred out West.
Washington played Michigan Jr. last week, but Michigan does everything Rutgers does, but much better. Washington’s run defense worries me and I don’t know if they are up to the task of Michigan. I’m taking the points on Saturday.
Tennessee at Arkansas (+13.5) – My pick is Tennessee Volunteers -13.5
The Tennessee Volunteers (4-0, 4-0 ATS) are coming off a bye week. In their previous game, they covered 25-15 on the road at Oklahoma. They were able to move the ball well against the Sooners, but they had to earn every single point. It wasn’t an easy day at the office for the Volunteers.
The Arkansas Razorbacks (3-2, 4-1 ATS) are coming off a 21-17 road loss to Texas A&M, which covered the +6.5 spread as the underdog. I thought the Razorbacks were turning the corner and jumping up a level in the SEC hierarchy, but last week’s outing at A&M showed me they weren’t quite ready. Their rush defense was solid through their first four games, but A&M was able to rack up some large gains.
Tennessee offense may look a little different this year, but they are still one of the best in the SEC. QB Nico Iamaleava may not have the rocket arm of former QB Joe Milton, but he’s been smart with the ball. He has two smart running backs behind him. This will most likely be near this betting line, but I’m taking Tennessee to cover on the road.
UCF at Florida (+3) – My pick is Florida Gators +3
The UCF Knights (3-1, 4-0 ATS) are coming off a 48-21 home loss to Colorado, which was a far cry from their -11.5 line as the favorite. It was a surprising outcome, at least the final point total. I thought Colorado was easily win against the spread, but didn’t expect them to win by three touchdowns. UCF QB K.J. Jefferson has historically been good against run-of-the-mill teams, but he would choke against the better teams in the SEC. I hope that isn’t what is happening this year.
The Florida Gators (2-2, 1-3 ATS) are coming off a bye week. In their previous game, they covered 45-28 at Mississippi State. Florida needed a breather after a rough stretch of games with a banged-up QB Graham Mertz and talks of a coaching change. Florida has been one of the toughest top college programs to handicap since head coach Billy Napier took control.
When there are too many wild sways in production, on offense or defense, take the points. That is the motto I’ve lived by for years and it has paid off for me in the long run. I don’t expect UCF QB Jefferson to have a great game and Florida will be better after a week off. I’m taking the points in this game.
Rutgers at Nebraska (-7) – My pick is Rutgers Scarlet Knights +7
The Rutgers Scarlet Knights (4-0, 3-1 ATS) are coming off a 21-18 home win over Washington, which covered the -1 betting line as the favorite. Rutgers brings a hard-nosed attitude to the field every week. You will feel like you’ve been in a fight the day after facing them. Head coach Greg Schiano made this program exponentially better in a short amount of time.
The Nebraska Cornhuskers (4-1, 4-1 ATS) are coming off a 28-10 road win over Purdue, which covered the -10 betting line as the favorite. The game was awful to watch in the scoreless first-half. The Cornhuskers were able to score 28-straight points to secure the win. QB Dylan Raiola has been a great addition to the team, and made smart decisions late in the game.
There are a group of a few teams in the Big Ten that share the B Tier in the conference, and Nebraska and Rutgers are in that group. The B Tier sit below top Big Ten teams like Ohio State and Michigan. I believe both teams are on their way up, but Rutgers might be the more consistent team right now. I’m taking the points in this game.
Ole Miss at South Carolina (+9.5) – My pick is Mississippi Rebels -9.5
The Mississippi Rebels (4-1, 4-1 ATS) are coming off a 20-17 home loss to Kentucky, which failed to cover the -15.5 point spread as the favorite. Kentucky’s defense is improving every week, and their new quarterback made smart decisions. The Wildcats had a bend-but-not-break defense. Ole Miss QB Jaxson Dart still threw for 261 yards, but the points were few and far between. Ole Miss also had trouble running the ball as they gained just 92 yards on 29 attempts, well below their usual output.
The South Carolina Gamecocks (3-1, 3-1 ATS) are coming off a bye week. In their previous game, they covered 50-7 at home against Akron. They haven’t started the meat of their schedule, but did have an upset win at Kentucky and a close outing against LSU. I feel that we didn’t properly rank South Carolina heading into the season, but have a hard time placing them now as well. QB LaNorris Sellers has been dealing with an ankle injury, but it appears he could play this coming week.
Mississippi is still one of the best teams in the country, but ran into a team with a ton of confidence. If South Carolina was fully healthy at QB, I think the Gamecocks could have a close game. I find it hard to believe that Sellers will be able to move well in the pocket. I’m taking Ole Miss to cover on the road.
Jacksonville State at Kennesaw State (+16) – My pick is Jacksonville State Gamecocks -16
This is the section where we pick a smaller conference game.
The Jacksonville State Gamecocks (1-3, 1-3 ATS) are coming off a 44-7 home win over Southern Miss, which easily covered the -6 point spread as the favorite. It was never a competitive contest as the Gamecocks jumped out to a huge lead right out of the gate. They were able to lean on the multi-faceted QB Tyler Huff and ride RB Tre Stewart’s back in the second-half. Southern Miss turned the ball over six times in the blowout loss.
The Kennesaw State Owls (0-4, 1-3 ATS) are coming off a 24-13 home loss to Tennessee-Martin, which failed to cover the spread as the +2.5 underdog. This was one of the better opportunities for the Owls to scored their first outright win of the season. Tennessee-Martin clamped down on defense and took the lead for good on an interception return for a touchdown. Kennesaw State may have the worst offense in FBS.
Jacksonville State was in Kennesaw State’s shoes not long ago, but they earned their stripes as a FBS team. They were already pretty stacked when they made that move, so the growing pains were considerably lighter than what Kennesaw State is dealing with right now. I don’t think this game will be close, as I’m taking JSU to cover on the road.
QUICK HITS
Houston at TCU (-16) – My pick is TCU -16
UCLA at Penn State (-27) – My pick is UCLA +27
Wake Forest at NC State (-5.5) – My pick is NC State -5.5
Pittsburgh at North Carolina (+2.5) – My pick is Pitt -2.5
Texas Tech at Arizona (-6) – My pick is Texas Tech +6
USC at Minnesota (+8.5) – My pick is Minnesota +8.5
Duke at Georgia Tech (-9.5) – My pick is Duke +9.5
West Virginia at Oklahoma State (-3) – My pick is West Virginia +3
Colorado State at Oregon State (-11) – My pick is Oregon State -11
Utah State at Boise State (-27) – My pick is Boise State -27
BONUS PICKS!
UMass at Northern Illinois (-17.5) – My pick is UMass +17.5
Bowling Green at Akron (+14.5) – My pick is Bowling Green -14.5
East Carolina at Charlotte (+9) – My pick is East Carolina -9
Temple at UConn (-17.5) – My pick is UConn -17.5
James Madison at Louisiana-Monroe (+17) – My pick is JMU -17
Sweetbob’s college football picks against the spread record in previous seasons:
2013: 134-79-8
2014: 148-118-4
2015: 149-118-3
2016: 196-145-6
2017: 183-159-13
2018: 177-157-6
2019: 187-141-8
2020: 170-160-5
2021: 167-151-8
2022: 185-150-5
2023: 155-144-10
2024: 69-54-2
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About the Author…
Bobby Roberts (otherwise known as Sweetbob) is the creator of ‘America’s White Boy’ and contributor at Project Shanks. His writing has been featured on ESPN’s ‘SportsNation’, Sports Illustrated’s Hot Clicks, Guyspeed, and various other sites. You can follow him on X at @Sweetbob