I went 13-12 against the spread in Week 2 of the 2024-25 College Football season.
I apologize for not having my picks up by mid-week, but I’ve been a busy bee this week.
We have quite a few local rivalry games on the schedule, and the outcomes can be a bit unpredictable in those sort of games.
Can Colorado buck the trend of underperforming against the spread?
We at ‘America’s White Boy’ pick 25 college football games against the spread in Week 3 of the 2024-25 NCAA Football season (September 14th, 2024).
Alabama at Wisconsin (+15.5) – My pick is Alabama Crimson Tide
The Alabama Crimson Tide (2-0, 1-1 ATS) are coming off a 42-16 home win over South Florida, which didn’t cover the spread. The Tide scared their fans as they as they only had a 14-13 lead at the end of the third quarter. Luckily, they were able to score four touchdowns in the final 10:04 minutes of the game.
The Wisconsin Badgers (2-0, 0-2 ATS) are coming off a 27-13 home win over FCS’s South Dakota, which was a few points shy of the point spread. They’ve been underwhelming so far this year. New QB Tyler Van Dyke was once a potential first-round draft prospect, but he flamed out in Miami, and his tenure in Madison has not started well.
It’s hard to take the temperature of a team when they play squads like Western Michigan and South Dakota, but Wisconsin doesn’t look among the better teams in the Big Ten. I’m not sold on Van Dyke as a game-changing quarterback, and he’s not up to the task of playing against Bama. I’m taking the Tide to cover on the road.
Texas A&M at Florida (+3) – My pick is Florida Gators
The Texas A&M Aggies (1-1, 0-2 ATS) are coming off a 52-10 home win over McNeese State, which was 4.5 points shy of the point spread. The Aggies bounced-back from their opening week loss to Notre Dame, McNeese State was a super cupcake opponent as A&M were up 38-0 at the half. They would have covered if they didn’t put it in first gear in the second-half.
The Florida Gators (1-1, 0-2 ATS) are coming off a 45-7 home win over Samford, which was a half-point shy of the spread. They needed that big win after getting blown-out by Miami (FL) in their opener. They kept QB DJ Lagway in the game for nearly the entire game, so he racked up 456 yards in the win.
This game is a tough one to handicap. Both of these teams disappointed in their opening game, and then played FCS teams. Also, they’ve both been underwhelming teams against the spread in recent memory. Unless you see a large position mismatch, I’d largely stay away from this game. I always try to pick the most popular games, so I’m taking the points in this one.
Indiana at UCLA (+2.5) – My pick is Indiana Hoosiers
The Indiana Hoosiers (2-0, 1-1 ATS) are coming off a 77-3 home win over Western Illinois, which easily covered the spread. New head coach Curt Cignetti has won everywhere he’s been and brings a positive swagger. The Hoosiers didn’t take it easy on the Leathernecks, as they were putting up crooked numbers in the fourth quarter. I’m liking what I’ve been seeing from new QB Kurtis Rourke and his backfield.
The UCLA Bruins (1-0, 0-1 ATS) are coming off a 16-13 road win over Hawaii, which was double-digit points away from covering the spread. The Bruins needed three unanswered field goals in the final 15:54 minutes of the game. QB Ethan Garbers didn’t get off to a great start as he only completed 50% of his passes and threw two interceptions against a below average Hawaii pass defense.
One of these teams took a big leap, and the other one is UCLA. I need to see more from new UCLA head coach DeShaun Foster, but he will have his work cut out for him. The Bruins was on their way down when former head coach Chip Kelly left town late in the offseason. I don’t like UCLA this year, and Indiana comes into this game underrated, so I’m taking the Hoosiers to cover on the road.
UCF at TCU (-1.5) – My pick is UCF Knights
The UCF Knights (2-0, 2-0 ATS) are coming off a 45-14 home win over Sam Houston State, which easily covered the spread. As long as UCF can move the ball on the ground, new QB K.J. Jefferson can do all the things that worked for him at Arkansas. Also, UCF’s defense looks to be improved, which is a nice change.
The TCU Horned Frogs (2-0, 0-2 ATS) are coming off a 45-0 home win against LIU, which fell a single point short of the spread. I liked what I saw from QB Josh Hoover last year, and he’s been near-perfect so far against below-average teams. I’m curious to see how TCU’s defense will fare against a good offense.
UCF can win this game outright if they can control the clock and their defense continues to show they’ve improved. I know I’ve lost money betting on Jefferson over the course of his college career, but I’m going back to the well, so I’m taking the points.
Notre Dame at Purdue (+7.5) – My pick is Notre Dame Fighting Irish
The Notre Dame Fighting Irish (1-1, 1-1 ATS) are coming off an embarrassing 16-14 home loss to Northern Illinois. After the game, we got some insight as to why ND QB Riley Leonard may have had a rough outing. He injured his non-throwing shoulder in the loss. He’s not expected to miss time, but it makes you wonder about his effectiveness in the short term. The Irish will need their solid defense to carry this team.
The Purdue Boilermakers (1-0, 1-0 ATS) are coming off a 49-0 home win over Indiana State, which covered the spread by two touchdowns. Purdue QB Hudson Card had a fantastic game, but since it’s Purdue’s only game of the year, you can’ glean much from this contest. Their defense wasn’t great last week, and I don’t expect them to be much better this year.
Was Notre Dame’s poor performance against NIU a one-week blunder or a sign of these to come? The injury to Leonard is a bummer, but he is expected to play this week. I don’t like Purdue’s defense this year and the Irish should still be able to move the ball well. They are extra motivated to get the taste of last week’s upset out of their mouths. I’m taking the Irish to cover in West Lafayette.
Oregon at Oregon State (+17.5) – My pick is Oregon State Beavers
The Oregon Ducks (2-0, 0-2 ATS) are coming off a 37-34 home win over Boise State, which was 15 points shy of the spread. The Ducks had to come from behind to get the outright win and needed a last-second field goal to win by three. The Ducks were greatly helped by BSU QB Maddux Madsen’s uncoordinated passing effort, but Oregon struggled against the run. New QB Dillon Gabriel, who is on his third team, has been efficient so far this year.
The Oregon State Beavers (2-0, 1-1 ATS) are coming off a 21-0 road win over San Diego State, which easily covered the spread. Oregon State isn’t going to impress anyone through the air, but they have talent in their backfield. Their defense appears to be improved from last season’s squad.
Oregon may not have the same high-octane offense as they’ve had in recent years, but they are still a very good team. Oregon State is a little underrated as people remember last year’s Pac 12 basement dweller team. I expect the Ducks to get the outright win, but they will come up short of the line, so give me the points.
Colorado at Colorado State (+7) – My pick is Colorado Buffaloes
The Colorado Buffaloes (1-1, 0-2 ATS) are coming off a 28-10 road loss to Nebraska. They were down 28-0 at the half and barely came to life in the second-half. I worry they are asking too much of WR/CB Travis Hunter. They can’t have him catch double-digit balls and also rely on him to be a shutdown corner on defense, who lack any other playmakers on that side of the ball.
The Colorado State Rams (1-1, 0-2 ATS) are coming off a 38-17 home win over Northern Colorado, which game in nearly ten points shy of the betting line. I was high on CSU QB Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi going into this season, but he hasn’t impressed me so far this year.
Is Colorado finally underrated against the spread? I think the public is finally starting to figure out Colorado and they are turning their backs on the Buffaloes. I think Colorado will win this game outright and will cover on the road.
Georgia at Kentucky (+22) – My pick is Georgia Bulldogs
The Georgia Bulldogs (2-0, 1-1 ATS) are coming off a 48-3 home win over Tennessee Tech, which was around ten points shy of the point spread. The game was out-of-hand shortly after kick-off. Georgia QB Carson Beck was amazing in the win with five passing touchdowns. There’s not much else to take away from this win over a small school.
The Kentucky Wildcats (1-1, 1-1 ATS) are coming off a rough 31-6 home loss to South Carolina, in a game they were almost double-digit favorites. There’s nothing positive for Kentucky coming out of that game. They were smoked at home in a game they were expected to win outright. QB Brock Vandagriff had a horrible, no good, very bad day.
I’m not sure how this betting line isn’t cover to 30 points after last week’s outcome. Vandagriff transferred from Georgia, so both parties know each other well. I expect him to suffer some growing pains while he learns at Kentucky. Georgia is just too darn good, so I’m taking them to cover on the road.
Washington State at Washington (-4.5) – My pick is Washington Huskies
The Washington State Cougars (2-0, 2-0 ATS) are coming off a 37-19 home win over Texas Tech, in a game in which they were underdogs. QB John Mateer had an outstanding game, but did more damage on the ground than through the air. He had 312 total yards, but roughly 2/3rds of that were on the ground. On defense, they may have trouble against the pass, but have been able to force turnovers, while give up a lot of yards so far this year.
The Washington Huskies (2-0, 1-1 ATS) are coming off a 30-9 home win over Eastern Michigan, which was roughly a field goal shy of the spread. I’ve always like QB Will Rogers, who transferred from Mississippi State this offseason. He still stuck around after his head coach left to take over at Alabama. He has a big arm and should be able to carve up bad pass defenses.
As I said before, Washington State’s pass defense scares me. They can’t continue to rely on interceptions, it’s just not going to trend in that direction. I love Rogers and expect him to have a big game, so give me the Huskies to cover.
Hawaii at Sam Houston State (-4) – My pick is Hawaii Rainbow Warriors
This is the section where we pick a smaller conference game.
The Hawaii Rainbow Warriors (1-1, 1-1 ATS) are coming off a 16-13 home loss to UCLA, which easily covered the spread. It’s hard to pinpoint if it was due to Hawaii playing well or UCLA shitting the bed. I think it was a little of both, as Hawaii crashed in the second-half. I would have loved to see a better pass offense from Hawaii, which was supposed to be their calling card going into the season.
The Sam Houston Bearkats (1-1, 1-1 ATS) are coming off a 45-14 road loss to UCF, which was easily a loss against the spread for Mr. Houston’s favorite team. It was ugly early and Sam Houston tried throwing new quarterbacks and looks at UCF, but were just falling on their faces. I wish I could say something positive about them, but it was a bad game from whistle to whistle.
This will not be a great game to watch, but I expect a close game that may not crack 24 points. I have to take the points in this horror show of a game.
QUICK HITS
Cincinnati at Miami (OH) (+3.5) – My pick is Cincinnati
Louisiana Tech at NC State (-21.5) – My pick is NC State
Central Michigan at Illinois (-18.5) – My pick is Illinois
LSU at South Carolina (+6.5) – My pick is LSU
North Texas at Texas Tech (-10.5) – My pick is North Texas
West Virginia at Pittsburgh (+10) – My pick is West Virginia
Ball State at Miami (FL) (-36.5) – My pick is Miami (FL)
UMass at Buffalo (-3.5) – My pick is Buffalo
Morgan State at Ohio (-24.5) – My pick is Ohio
Ole Miss at Wake Forest (+22.5) – My pick is Mississippi
BONUS PICKS!
FIU at FAU (-5.5) – My pick is Florida Atlantic
Jacksonville State at Eastern Michigan (-1.5) – My pick is Eastern Michigan
Northern Iowa at Nebraska (-32.5) – My pick is Nebraska
Kennesaw State at San Jose State (-18.5) – My pick is San Jose State
New Mexico State at Fresno State (-19.5) – My pick is New Mexico State
Sweetbob’s college football picks against the spread record in previous seasons:
2013: 134-79-8
2014: 148-118-4
2015: 149-118-3
2016: 196-145-6
2017: 183-159-13
2018: 177-157-6
2019: 187-141-8
2020: 170-160-5
2021: 167-151-8
2022: 185-150-5
2023: 155-144-10
2024: 27-22-1
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About the Author…
Bobby Roberts (otherwise known as Sweetbob) is the creator of ‘America’s White Boy’ and contributor at Project Shanks. His writing has been featured on ESPN’s ‘SportsNation’, Sports Illustrated’s Hot Clicks, Guyspeed, and various other sites. You can follow him on X at @Sweetbob