Are you ready to place your bets?

I went 132-116-6 against the spread last season. It wasn’t a banner year and I just hovered around .500 all season long. I hope to start the year off with a big week.

I have written a monster post that somewhat acts like miniature season previews for every team. I can’t commit to writing almost 5k words every week, but I feel like it was needed to start the NFL season.

How will the rookie quarterbacks fare in their debuts?

We pick every NFL game against the spread and throw out a few upsets in Week 1 of the 2024 NFL season.

Baltimore Ravens at Kansas City Chiefs (-3) – My pick is Baltimore Ravens

Green Bay Packers vs Philadelphia Eagles (-2.5) – My pick is Philadelphia Eagles

In 2023, the Green Bay Packers got hot at the end of the regular season to finish 9-8 and earn a playoff spot. They beat Dallas in the Wild Card round, but lost to the 49ers in the Divisional round to end the season. QB Jordan Love signed a $220 million contract extension this season, to become the entrenched cornerstone of the franchise. This offseason, they saw their longtime running back Aaron Jones leave, but they signed an equally-aged RB Josh Jacobs. The Packers have drafted well at wide receiver and now have a fleet of talented pass catchers. Defensively, they should be solid, but would have liked for them to add an elite edge rusher.

The Eagles are coming off an 11-6 season, and lost in their Wild Card game to Tampa Bay. It was a disappointing outcome after starting the season 10-1. Philly lost a few pieces this offseason after longtime center Jason Kelce retired, they traded LB Haason Reddick to the Jets and RB D’Andre Swift signed with the Bears. They did make a couple quality signings by snagging RB Saquon Barkley and DE Bryce Huff off free agency.

I like the additions the Eagles made this offseason, and they look to be among the top teams in the NFC. The Packers caught fire at the end of last season, and I’m not sold on QB Jordan Love as a franchise-altering talent. I’m taking the Eagles to cover in Brazil.

Minnesota Vikings at New York Giants (+1) – My pick is New York Giants

The Vikings were kneecapped by injuries in 2023. QB Kirk Cousins only played in eight games and star wide receiver Justin Jefferson missed seven games in the middle of the season. It didn’t help that their defense got old in a hurry. This offseason, they lost QB Kirk Cousins to free agency, added RB Aaron Jones and drafted QB J.J. McCarthy in the first round. Unfortunately, McCarthy injured his knee this preseason and will miss the entire season. The Vikings will rely on veteran QB Sam Darnold, with career backups Nick Mullens and Brett Rypien on deck.

In 2023, the Giants saw QB Daniel Jones barely make it into October before an injury ended his season. They finished the season with a 6-11 record, and could have been much worse without a few good games from rookie QB Tommy DeVito. Jones is coming off a torn ACL and it’s currently unknown if this will change his ability to scramble at a high level. The Giants lost RB Saquon Barkley to the Eagles, and currently have RB Devin Singletary as their RB1, which could become an issue. The Giants drafted WR Malik Nabers, who they hope will be a true centerpiece of their passing attack for many years.

This may be an ugly game to watch, but I think the Giants are the better overall team. QB Daniel Jones has had good stretches of play when he’s been able to stay healthy. I like his young group of wide receivers. The Giants defense should force Vikings QB Sam Darnold into some mistakes. I’m taking the points in this one, and a moneyline is the smarter play.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Miami Dolphins (-3.5) – My pick is Miami Dolphins

In 2023, the Jaguars started the year 8-3, but struggled in the second-half of the year. They ended with the season with a 9-8 record and failed to make the playoffs. They have a young, burgeoning defense, and a stud quarterback in Trevor Lawrence, but the offense hasn’t always been pretty with him under center. We haven’t seen a huge leap from him like we saw with Joe Burrow and Justin Herbert. Lawrence doesn’t have a true #1 receiver in Jacksonville. He lost his most prolific receiver from last year, as Calvin Ridley is now in Tennessee. Lawrence hopes the additions of wide receivers Gabe Davis and Devin Duvernay can pull their weight.

The Dolphins made the postseason in 2023, but failed in their Wild Card game against Kansas City. Miami finished the regular season with a 11-6 record and QB Tua Tagovailoa played in all seventeen games. Miami tried to take advantage of teams gameplanning for WR Tyreek Hill and implement a more dynamic running game. Running backs Raheem Mostert and De’Von Achane worked great together and nearly amassed a combine 2,000 yards on the ground. On defense, they had a lot of talent, but the secondary was in shambles by Week 18. They made a lot of free agent signings on defense with hopes of adding depth.

The Jaguars need to see a big improvement from QB Trevor Lawrence this year, but I’m not sold on the weapons that surround him. I needed to see the Jaguars make a big splash and get a true WR1 for him. The Dolphins made that change by acquiring WR Tyreek Hill and QB Tua Tagovailoa has been fantastic. The Dolphins offense should be even better this year, so I’m taking them to cover at home.

Carolina Panthers at New Orleans Saints (-4) – My pick is New Orleans Saints

The Panthers love to hire (and fire) head coaches. Frank Reich didn’t make it a full season last year, and the Panthers struggled to a 2-15 record. Rookie QB Bryce Young failed to quickly pick up the pro game. Carolina hopes that hiring long-time Pete Carroll assistant Dave Canales as head coach will help speed up that process. The Panthers are still a long way from being a competitive team, but pieces like rookie RB Jonathon Brooks (who is coming off a knee injury in college), could be a game-changer when he’s gets healthy enough to get off the PUP list.

In 2023, the Saints finished 9-8 and didn’t make the postseason. QB Derek Carr’s first season in New Orleans went pretty well. Considering that he didn’t get much help from the running game all year, he threw for 3,878 yards with 25 touchdowns and only eight interceptions. Wide receivers Chris Olave and Rashid Shaheed looks to be a solid one-two punch going forward. The Saints defense this coming year appears to be solid. They signed DE Chase Young and LB Willie Gay, who should both fit in very well.

The Panthers have improved this offseason, and expect QB Bryce Young to become a better NFL quarterback, but the Saints defense just have too many studs. They will make Young work for yards and I’m taking the Saints to cover at home.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Atlanta Falcons (-3.5) – My pick is Pittsburgh Steelers

In 2023, the Steelers went 10-7 and lost in their Wild Card game against the Bills. They were not happy with the results, so they completely cleaned out the quarterback room. They shipped QB Kenny Pickett to Philly for peanuts, signed Russell Wilson via free agency, then acquired Justin Fields from the Bears for a can of beans. They also added RB Cordarrelle Patterson and WR Van Jefferson, which I think were smart. I don’t know if they will be battling for the Ravens for the division, but if Wilson can regain some of his Seattle magic, they could be a Wild Card team again.

The Falcons were 7-10 in 2023, but they were much worse than that. They didn’t get squat from the quarterback position last year, as Desmond Ridder and Taylor Heinicke were awful. This offseason, the Falcons made (an early) splash to start free agency by signing veteran QB Kirk Cousins to a big contract, then drafting Michael Penix Jr. at #8. The move still doesn’t make much sense, but they are at least guaranteed to have better quarterback play this year. On defense, they added DE Matthew Judon and safety Justin Simmons, which are two solid additions.

The Steelers may not be a playoff team this year, but they will be a well-coached team. They will get improved play from the quarterback position, and they have veteran leaders on defense. The Falcons are better as well, but it may take a few games before new QB Cousins can get in a rhythm with his new targets. I’m taking the points in this game.

New England Patriots at Cincinnati Bengals (-7.5) – My pick is New England Patriots

In 2023, the Patriots sealed the fate of their longtime coach Bill Belichick with a 4-13 season. The quarterback play of Mac Jones and Bailey Zappe were unfit to start, so New England cleaned house this offseason. They drafted QB Drake Maye and signed veteran Jacoby Brissett, who was once a backup to Tom Brady. New head coach Jerod Mayo isn’t inheriting a turn-key operation, especially when it comes to the offense. His defensive unit is in much better shape, but they will need to carry a lot of water this year.

The Bengals were one of the best teams in the AFC when Joe Burrow was healthy. Unfortunately, a calf injury slowed him to start the season, and then a wrist injury ended his season. The Bengals finished 9-8 and didn’t make the post season. Burrow comes into this season healthy, but saw his longtime RB Joe Mixon and WR Tyler Boyd leave via free agency. The Bengals added RB Zack Moss and TE Mike Gesicki to help fill the void. Their defense had trouble replacing Jessie Bates last season, but they added safety Geno Stone, which should help this year.

The Bengals have been slow starters over the last few years. It looks like they could be without WR Ja’Marr Chase, and the Patriots pass defense should be pretty darn good. This is more of a gut feeling, as Cincinnati has more overall talent. I’m just going with recent trends, so I’m taking the points.

Arizona Cardinals at Buffalo Bills (-6) – My pick is Arizona Cardinals

In 2023, the Cardinals were 4-13, and would have been even worse if QB Kyler Murray didn’t return in November. He wasn’t the same dynamic quarterback when he first returned, but he was improving every week. Arizona was able to add WR Marvin Harrison Jr. via the draft to help Murray going forward. His offense is starting to look like a unit that can win games. Unfortunately, the same cannot be said about the defense. They struggled to stop the run and couldn’t get to the quarterback last year…and I expect only a small improvement this year.

The Bills finished 2023 with a 11-6 record, and a divisional round loss to Kansas City. It’s hard to say that an eleven-win season was a disappointment, but it’s true. They started the year playing very well, but they hit a midseason wall. They couldn’t string together wins, and was largely a .500 team from that point on. They changed offensive coordinators and saw a complete overhaul of receivers, which wasn’t completely all their doing, but it could be an issue to start the year. On defense, there was a large turnover this offseason. The defensive line is largely unchanged, but the LB Matt Milano and the tenured players in the secondary are all gone.

The Cardinals will be a better team this season, and QB Kyler Murray should look more like himself. I like the weapons he has and the Bills have a lot of new faces on defense. The Bills will most likely win, but the Cardinals should make it a game, so I’m taking the points.

Houston Texans at Indianapolis Colts (+2.5) – My pick is Houston Texans

The Texans were expected to be one of the worse teams in the league, so winning the AFC South and finishing 10-7 was a big surprise. QB C.J. Stroud won Rookie of the Year and looks like the stud of his draft class. Houston isn’t planning a slow build, as they swung for the fences with their offeseason signings. Two of their better signings were WR Stefon Diggs and DE Danielle Hunter. Both bring experience and veteran leadership, they can help push this team to the next level.

The Colts also started a rookie QB right away, but QB Anthony Richardson only lasted a couple games before an injury ended his season. They finished the season 9-8, and missed the playoffs after losing to the Texans in their season finale. QB Gardner Minshew did a fantastic job in relief, and a two-headed running attack of Zack Moss and Jonathan Taylor helped take the pressure off the journeyman quarterback. The Colts did lose Minshew and Moss to free agency, but Richardson is healthy and Taylor had a full training camp going into this season. Defensively, the Colts secondary is their most inexperienced group of players.

This game may come down to Texans QB C.J. Stroud vs the Colts inexperienced cornerbacks. The Colts may not be able to answer that kind of mismatch. I’m taking the Texans to cover on the road.

Tennessee Titans at Chicago Bears (-3.5) – My pick is Chicago Bears

The Titans were still in rebuild mode in 2023, but lost patience in head coach Mike Vrabel. They went even deeper with the rebuild by letting RB Derrick Henry leave town. They added RB Tony Pollard, WRs Calvin Ridley and Tyler Boyd. QB Will Levis has way more weapons than he did last year. I’m curious to see if we will see a big Year Two leap from him. On defense, they are improved in their secondary, which is greatly needed in the AFC South. They lost talent up-front, so I worry about their ability to get to the quarterback this year.

In 2023, the Bears finished 7-10 and still had the #1 overall pick, thanks to a smart trade during the previous draft. They selected USC QB Caleb Williams and traded QB Justin Fields to the Steelers for way too little. They attempted to add some weapons around Williams by drafting WR Rome Odunze, and acquiring WR Keenan Allen and RB D’Andre Swift. On defense, the team improved after trading for DE Montez Sweat, and getting healthy in the secondary. That unit should be as good, if not a tick better this year.

The Bears have given rookie QB Caleb Williams a cupboard full of talented offensive players. They know the mistakes they’ve made in the past with young quarterbacks, and they went hard in the opposite direction. I’m not high on the Titans this year and I expect Williams to win his debut. I’m taking the Bears to cover at home.

Las Vegas Raiders at Los Angeles Chargers (-3) – My pick is Los Angeles Chargers

The Raiders started the 2023 season rough and they canned head coach Josh McDaniels. They were a much better team once interim coach Antonio Pierce took over. They opted to not take a quarterback in this year’s draft and signed QB Gardner Minshew. He battled sophomore QB Aidan O’Connell in camp and will start in Week 1, Their biggest skill player addition on offense this offseason was drafting TE Brock Bowers, who could be a game-changing talent. On defense, the Raiders were an underrated unit, and I believe they will be at the same level this year.

In 2023, the Chargers were expected to battle for a Wild Card spot, but finished the year 5-12. They dealt with injuries all year and they were not able to win close games. They changed the coaching staff and former University of Michigan head coach Jim Harbaugh takes over. They turned over their offense and saw RB Austin Ekeler and wide receivers Keenan Allen and Mike Williams leave town. They signed former Ravens backfield of running backs J.K. Dobbins and Gus Edwards and a tight end duo of Will Dissly and Hayden Hurst. They also spent their first two draft picks to help keep QB Justin Herbert upright, and another wide receiving weapon. On defense, they were able to keep all their studs, but depth could be an issue if one of those guys get injured.

The Chargers haven’t been able to win close games of late, but a change in coaching staff should change that trend. I expect their offense will not leave their defense high and dry, and be able to control the clock to their benefit. The Raiders are underrated going into this season, but I just like the Chargers to open up the year with a cover.

Denver Broncos at Seattle Seahawks (-5.5) – My pick is Seattle Seahawks

After starting 2023 1-5, they bounced back and ended the season with an 8-9 record. QB Russell Wilson played much better under head coach Sean Payton, but he wasn’t worth the hefty salary. They opted to take a huge cap hit and cut bait with the quarterback. They drafted QB Bo Nix, who will start Week 1. Denver had to make some tough decisions due to the salary cap issues, so they lost their interior offensive lineman and a lot of depth on both sides of the ball. On defense, it could be a long year for that unit. Other than CB Patrick Surtain II, the rest of the squad is replacement level or below.

In 2023, the Seahawks finished with a 9-8 record, but they won a few games they should have lost late in the season. Seattle also benefited from an easy schedule. The Seahawks made improvements to their offensive line to try to help the running game. RB Kenneth Walker III regressed in Year Two and I could see RB Zach Charbonnet start to take away more and more carries if he doesn’t improve. If QB Geno Smith doesn’t perform better with the amount of receiving talent at his disposal, Seattle could draft his replacement after the season. On defense, they couldn’t stop the run last year. They have defensive line issues and rookie DT Byron Murphy is a big improvement, but they need more than him. Seattle’s defensive unit might be worse than last year.

I have no interest in watching this one, as it could be a bit sloppy. I usually take the points in games like these, but the Broncos could be pretty bad this year. They lack depth and their defense could make the Seahawks offense look like the Chiefs. I’m taking Seattle to cover at home.

Washington Commanders at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3.5) – My pick is Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The Commanders finished 4-13 in 2023 and decided to make a change at quarterback. They drafted Heisman winning QB Jayden Daniels, which has a strong chance at being the best quarterback in his class. They added RB Austin Ekeler, who has great hands and is still a skilled complement to RB Brian Robinson Jr.. On defense, they went heavy at adding linebacker talent. LB Bobby Wagner has experience in new head coach Dan Quinn’s system, and will be a leader. They attempted to rebuild their defensive line, but it’s impossible to replace defensive ends Montez Sweat and Chase Young, who they traded away midseason last year. Their secondary is their weakest area and will be a liability.

In 2023, the Buccaneers finished 9-8, but just like the Seahawks, they had a few cheap wins against injury-riddled teams down the stretch. They got great play from QB Baker Mayfield, but their running game was not efficient. They added some improvements on the offensive line in order to help the backfield, who they opted to not improve, other than drafting RB Bucky Irving in the later rounds. On defense, they saw longtime leaders leave this offseason. Some of those players have aged out. They should be tough to run against, but their cornerbacks will be an issue.

I believe Commanders rookie QB Jayden Daniels could become a stud quarterback, but his defense could make it tough to rack up wins. The Buccaneers have similar issues on defense, but the Bucs have veterans on offense that should make it more efficient. I’m taking the Bucs to cover at home.

Dallas Cowboys at Cleveland Browns (-2.5) – My pick is 

The Cowboys were 12-5 last season, and once again, were an early exit in the playoffs. QB Dak Prescott and WR CeeDee Lamb got big contracts this offseason, but they will have depth issues on that side of the ball. They couldn’t keep RB Tony Pollard, WR Michael Gallup and tackle Tyron Smith will not be donning the star this year. They saw RB Ezekiel Elliott return, but he’s a shell of his former self. They will still be solid on offense, but a few injuries could stymy points. On defense, they didn’t lose many of the impact players from a year ago. The addition of LB Eric Kendricks will replace the former LB Leighton Vander Esch, who wasn’t the same player in recent years.

In 2023, the Browns unexpectedly finished 11-6 thanks to Joe freakin’ Flacco. They made the playoffs, but the upstart Texans were too good. QB Deshaun Watson is healthy again and will be the starter in Week 1. He needs a big season as his tenure with the team has been a disaster thus far. They lost RB Kareem Hunt this offseason, but added some depth to help RB Nick Chubb (when he comes back from injury). I also like the addition of WR Jerry Jeudy, who was mostly rotting away in Denver. On defense, the Browns will win more games due to that unit than their offense. If their new linebackers can stay healthy, the Browns defense could be a top-seven defense in the league.

I’m not high on either of these teams this season, but think the Cowboys have more overall talent. I didn’t like what I saw from Browns QB Deshaun Watson when was was healthy last season. He has been mediocre since arriving in Cleveland. I’m taking the points in this game.

Los Angeles Rams at Detroit Lions (-3.5) – My pick is Detroit Lions

In 2023, the Rams finished 10-7 and was an early exit in the playoffs. They weren’t expected to be a playoff team heading into last year, but they got better as the season moved forward. They found two young gems in WR Puka Nacua and RB Kyren Williams. They needed a youth injection after getting old at those positions. On defense, defensive juggernaut DT Aaron Donald retired, and there’s no replacing him. They bolstered their line in the draft and added depth iin their secondary in free agency.

We knew the Lions could be improved in 2023, but they finished 12-5 with an appearance in the NFC Championship game. QB Jared Goff fell in love with WR Amon-Ra St. Brown and rookie TE Sam LaPorta. Also, he saw improved back from his backfield of David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs. On defense, the Lions pass defense needed an overhaul. They used their first two draft picks on cornerbacks Terrion Arnold and Ennis Rakestraw. They will be very young at the position, but I think they will get better every week. 

The Rams defense will go through some rough times without star DT Aaron Donald. I don’t see them being a playoff team in ’24, but are still good enough to sneak in. The Lions have jumped into the elite group of teams. They are loaded with young talent that have All-Pro skills. I’m taking the Lions to cover at home.

New York Jets at San Francisco 49ers (-4) – My pick is San Francisco 49ers

In 2023, the Jets finished 7-10 and saw newly-signed quarterback Aaron Rodgers only last a drive before suffering a season-ending Achilles injury. They used a mix of Zach Wilson, Trevor Siemian and Tim Boyle, so it’s a surprise they won seven games. Their offense wasn’t very good, but their defense deserves all the credit for those victories. The Jets know they have a short window with Rodgers, so they added some key veterans like OT Tyron Smith, DE Haason Reddick and DT Javon Kinlaw. They lost a lot of their offensive line to free agency, so they needed guys to play at a high level right away. 

The Niners went 12-5 last season and lost a close Super Bowl to the Kansas City Chiefs. QB Brock Purdy had an excellent sophomore season by throwing for 4280 yards and 31 touchdowns. RB Christian McCaffrey was able to stay healthy and racked up over 2,000 total yards. They didn’t tweak with the offense this offseason after signing WR Brandon Aiyuk to a new contract. On defense, the were outstanding last year, but they’ve lost a ton of talent upfront this offseason. Their best addition is DE Leonard Floyd, and many would say he is an upgrade over DE Chase Young.

I’m not sold on the Jets this season. I’d be surprised if Jets QB Aaron Rodgers is able to turn this team around. Their defense will keep them in most games, but I’m very high on the Niners. They could find themselves in another Super Bowl at the end of the year. I’m taking San Francisco to cover at home.

*These picks are for entertainment purposes

Sweetbob’s NFL picks against the spread record in previous seasons:
2013: 133-95-10
2014: 131-114-9
2015: 150-108-9
2016: 143-120-13
2017: 144-115-16
2018: 141-118-13
2019: 159-119-7
2020: 152-121-8
2021: 155-129-6
2022: 148-133-8
2023: 132-116-6
2024: 0-0-0

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About the Author…

Bobby Roberts (otherwise known as Sweetbob) is the creator of ‘America’s White Boy’ and contributor at Project Shanks. His writing has been featured on ESPN’s ‘SportsNation’, Sports Illustrated’s Hot Clicks, Guyspeed, and various other sites. You can follow him on X at @Sweetbob