Last week, I started the year off by going 15-10 against the spread.
Transfer quarterbacks are already making a name for themselves at their new programs. Over half of the teams I profile in my first ten picks have transfer quarterbacks. It’s a nice wrinkle for college football, but can be confusing if you’re not a hardcore fan. I can understand why some traditionalists hate it, but if a coach can leave, a player should be able as well.
How will Notre Dame fare in their first true test of the season?
We at ‘America’s White Boy’ pick 25 college football games against the spread in Week 2 of the 2023-24 NCAA Football season (September 9th, 2023).
Notre Dame at NC State (+7.5) – My pick is Notre Dame Fighting Irish
The Notre Dame Fighting Irish are sitting at 2-0 outright and 2-0 against the spread. Transfer QB Sam Hartman has come as advertised and his defense has yet to give up a touchdown. They haven’t played top-tier talent, but they schedule appears to have gotten them ready enough for their first ACC opponent.
The NC State Wolfpack is 1-0 outright, but failed to cover the spread on the road against Connecticut. Transfer QB Brennan Armstrong had a strong season in 2021, but stumbled last year. Was he a one-year wonder or can he rebound and lead NC State to a bowl game? UConn isn’t very good and Armstrong didn’t run up the score. I’m not sure if Armstrong is the right style of quarterback to run NC State’s offense.
Notre Dame has played like a title contender this year. I do fear that this could end up as a trap game since the Irish have a home game against Ohio State looming next on the schedule. I think they will shake that off and take care of business and cover against the Wolfpack.
Iowa at Iowa State (+3.5) – My pick is Iowa Hawkeyes
The Iowa Hawkeyes are 1-0 outright, but failed to cover against the spread in their opener against Utah State. They came up two touchdowns short of even matching the spread. They started off the game strong, but they just hit a wall until the fourth quarter. Transfer QB Cade McNamara may need more time in the offense to really take care of larger point spreads. Iowa’s defense may not be a strong as in past year’s, but their offense was beyond broken last year.
The Iowa State Cyclones are 1-0 outright and have the same record against the spread. They are coming off a 30-9 home win over Northern Iowa. It was a nice win for a squad that has already taken a few big losses this year. Their starting QB Hunter Dekkers, and four other teammates, were busted for underage gambling. They have accepted a plea deal, but I doubt any of those guys will be suiting up anytime soon. QB Rocco Becht was efficient in his first start and only missed three attempts.
Iowa wasn’t super impressive in their opener, but I fear Iowa State could be in for a long season. This rivalry game always ends up super close, but I think McNamara plays better and Iowa’s defense should have an answer for Becht. I’m taking the Hawkeyes to cover on the road.
Cincinnati at Pittsburgh (-7) – My pick is Cincinnati Bearcats
The Cincinnati Bearcats are 1-0 outright and have the same record against the spread. They are coming off a 66-14 home win over Eastern Kentucky. Transfer QB Emory Jones was immaculate in the win. He completed 19 of 23 passes for five passing touchdowns and added another two touchdowns on the ground. You really can’t do much better than seven total touchdowns in your program debut.
The Pitt Panthers are 1-0 outright and are 0-0-1 against the spread. They suffered a push after beating Wofford 45-7. Just about everything has to go right to cover a 38-point spread and they allowed a touchdown with a 1:13 left in the game. They were already resting their starters. I’m curious to see how well transfer QB Phil Jurkovec will perform this year. This is his third program and he underperformed his last two years at Boston College.
Cincinnati may have lost head coach Luke Fickell to Wisconsin, but new head coach Scott Satterfield still has a ton of talent left. QB Emory Jones has a ton of talent, but he has yet to put it all together. If Satterfield can pull that out in him, Cincy could be a darkhorse to make the CFP. I’m taking the points in this game.
Oregon at Texas Tech (+6.5) – My pick is Oregon Ducks
The Oregon Ducks are 1-0 outright and have the same record against the spread. They are coming off a 81-7 win over Portland State. QB Bo Nix is expected to compete for the Heisman this year and got off to a great start by connecting on 23 of 27 passes for 287 yards and three passing touchdowns. He racked up those stats and took a seat after one drive in the third quarter. Also, I think RB Mar’Keise Irving will be huge for them this year.
The Texas Tech Red Raiders are 0-1 outright and have the same record against the spread. They were 13.5 favorites at Wyoming, but fell to the Cowboys 35-33 in overtime. It was an unfortunate ending for Tech as they were up 17-0 at the end of the first quarter. They should have bailed on the running game earlier in the game. They ran the ball 32 times and failed to crack the 100-yard mark.
Texas Tech QB Tyler Shough started his career at Oregon, so it will be interesting to see how he will react early in this game. I know the Red Raiders thought they won the lottery when he decided to transfer to Lubbock, but he has yet to pan out. He could have a tough outing as Oregon’s defense should be pretty damn good this year. Also, the Red Raiders defense could cave to Oregon’s passing game. I’m taking the Ducks to cover on the road.
Texas at Alabama (-7) – My pick is Alabama Crimson Tide
The Texas Longhorns are 1-0, but failed to cover their opener against Rice. They are coming off a 37-10 home win over the Owls. Texas QB Quinn Ewers didn’t play great in the first-half, but he made some adjustments and had an outstanding third quarter. One glaring issue I see going forward is that they need to find the next Bijan Robinson. RB Jonathan Brooks might be in that spot right now, but Robinson’s output will be missed this year.
The Alabama Crimson Tide are 1-0 outright and have the same record against the spread. They are coming off a 56-7 home win over Middle Tennessee. QB Jalen Milroe played as well as you can expect. I know there was some talk about splitting reps with transfer QB Tyler Buchner, but they know what they have in Milroe. He could becoming something special soon.
I could be wrong, but Texas might be a little overrated coming into this game. Ewers hasn’t been the elite quarterback prospect many thought he would be years ago. We continue to wait for him to suddenly become Dan Marino. I don’t expect him to fare well against Alabama. I’m taking the Crimson Tide to cover at home.
Illinois at Kansas (-3) – My pick is Kansas Jayhawks
The Illinois Fighting Illini are 1-0 outright, but failed to cover against Toledo in their opener. They are coming off a 30-28 home win over the Rockets. They needed a field goal in the final seconds to secure the comeback win. The Illini struggled to stop the running game and it nearly cost them. Transfer QB Luke Altmyer had a solid debut for the program. He passed for 211 yards and added another 69 yards on the ground.
The Kansas Jayhawks are 1-0 outright, but failed to cover against Missouri State in their season debut. They came up two points shy of covering in their 48-17 home win. The game was actually pretty close until they Jayhawks managed to pull away in the second-half. I’ve been a fan of QB Jason Bean since he was called upon to start midseason last year.
Both of these teams didn’t play their best in their openers, but I think Kansas is the more talented team. Illinois will struggle to stop Jayhawks RB Devin Neal. This is a coinflip game and I have to go with the home team in this one, so give me Kansas to cover at home.
Purdue at Virginia Tech (-2.5) – My pick is Virginia Tech Hokies
The Purdue Boilermakers are 0-1 outright and have the same record against the spread. They are coming off a 39-35 home loss to Fresno State. Transfer QB Hudson Card played pretty well, but he ran into the same issue former QB Aidan O’Connell ran into many weeks, Purdue’s defense isn’t very good. Card should tally up some nice stats most weeks, but wins could be hard to come by for the Boilermakers.
The Virginia Tech Hokies are 1-0 outright and have the same record against the spread. They are coming off a 36-17 home win over Old Dominion. The Monarchs tried to run the ball right at the Hokies. They had some success on the ground, but Old Dominion lost two fumbles and threw an interception. Turnovers were the biggest reason for Virginia Tech’s win and cover.
I don’t expect either of these teams landing on the Top 25 this year, but they are good enough to play spoiler at times. This will probably come down to the end, but I have to take the Hokies to cover at home.
Wisconsin at Washington State (+6) – My pick is Washington State Cougars
The Wisconsin Badgers are 1-0 outright, but came up a touchdown short to cover in their opener. They are coming off a 38-17 home win over Buffalo. Transfer QB Tanner Mordecai had a rough outing. He threw two interceptions and just connected on a lot of short passes. He will not be expected to carry the offense in Wisconsin, so don’t expect him to match his stats from SMU. He has a solid arm and passing talent, but he will be handing off to running backs Braelon Allen and Chez Mellusi for most of the game.
The Washington State Cougars are 1-0 outright and have the same record against the spread. They are coming off a 50-24 win on the road at Colorado State. QB Cameron Ward threw for 451 yards and scored four total touchdowns against a bad Colorado State team. The Cougars won seven games last season and I could see them matching that total or maybe even a little better.
Wisconsin has a lot of hype right now. New head coach Luke Fickell had a lot of success at Ohio State and then as the head coach of Cincinnati. Wisconsin had some holes and he tried to fill them with transfers. I think the Badgers could be very dangerous in a year or two, but I’m not sure if I trust them to travel to Pullman and pull off a cover. I have to take the points in this game.
Stanford at USC (-28.5) – My pick is USC Trojans
The Stanford Cardinal are 1-0 outright and have the same record against the spread. They are coming off a 37-24 road win at Hawaii. It was their first game under new head coach Troy Taylor. He made a name for himself at the FCS level. He led Sacramento State to three-straight playoff appearances. He has a tough task as he took over a team with a bare cupboard.
The USC Trojans are 2-0 outright and 1-1 against the spread this season. They are coming off a 66-14 home win over Nevada. QB Caleb Williams has been lights out so far as he has thrown for nine touchdowns and has yet to throw an interception. This USC team is stacked and should make a title run this year.
I rarely pick a team to cover a spread of over 28 points against a conference rival, but this is just where both programs are at right now. Williams could win another Heisman and Stanford is in Year 1 of a rebuild. I’m taking USC to cover at home.
Ball State at Georgia (-42.5) – My pick is Georgia Bulldogs
This is the section where we pick a smaller conference game.
The Ball State Cardinals are 0-1 outright and winless against the spread. They are coming off a 44-14 loss on the road against Kentucky. I’ll give my alma mater a small bit of love here, as they played a great first quarter…but it was those darn final three quarters that ruined a good day. The Cardinals aren’t going to win many games against major programs. Their secondary is undersized and their passing game hasn’t been the same since Drew Plitt graduated.
The Georgia Bulldogs are 1-0 outright, but failed to cover the 51-point spread in their opener. They are coming off a 48-7 home win over Tennessee-Martin. QB Carson Beck got in some reps and just did enough to keep his arm warm. He still threw for 294 yards in his starting debut, but they just wanted to get him in and out without any injuries. I expect this week’s game will have a similar gameplan.
Ball State is getting paid a handsome sum to travel to SEC stadiums and get their butts kicked. They usually spread these sort of excursions out a little, but Ball State decided to get them over with while the weather is nice. Georgia is one of the best teams in the country and Ball State will probably finish in the bottom-half of the MAC. I’m taking Georgia to cover this bloated point spread.
QUICK HITS
Eastern Michigan at Minnesota (-20.5) – My pick is Eastern Michigan
Temple at Rutgers (-9) – My pick is Rutgers
Ole Miss at Tulane (+7.5) – My pick is Tulane
Utah at Baylor (+7.5) – My pick is Utah
Marshall at East Carolina (+3.5) – My pick is East Carolina
Appalachian State at North Carolina (-18) – My pick is Appalachian State
Southern Miss at Florida State (-30.5) – My pick is Florida State
Nebraska at Colorado (-3) – My pick is Colorado
Auburn at California (+6.5) – My pick is Auburn
SMU at Oklahoma (-16) – My pick is Oklahoma
BONUS PICKS!
New Mexico State at Liberty (-11) – My pick is Liberty
Texas State at Texas-San Antonio (-13.5) – My pick is Texas State
UTEP at Northwestern (+1.5) – My pick is UTEP
UConn at Georgia State (-3) – My pick is Georgia State
Kent State at Arkansas (-38) – My pick is Arkansas
Sweetbob’s college football picks against the spread record in previous seasons:
2013: 134-79-8
2014: 148-118-4
2015: 149-118-3
2016: 196-145-6
2017: 183-159-13
2018: 177-157-6
2019: 187-141-8
2020: 170-160-5
2021: 167-151-8
2022: 185-150-5
2023: 15-10-0
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About the Author…
Bobby Roberts (otherwise known as Sweetbob) is the creator of ‘America’s White Boy’ and contributor at Project Shanks. His writing has been featured on ESPN’s ‘SportsNation’, Sports Illustrated’s Hot Clicks, Guyspeed, and various other sites. You can follow him on X at @Sweetbob