College Football season is here, guys!
We once again saw a vast amount of changes in college football thanks to the transfer portal. It no longer takes a team two or three years to rebuild thanks to the new transfer rules.
We already saw a few games last weekend and former Wake Forest QB Sam Hartman led Notre Dame to a blowout win over Navy. It’s just one of the new players that will make big impact in their team debut.
Can Duke upset Clemson on Monday night?
We at ‘America’s White Boy’ pick 25 college football games against the spread in Week 1 of the 2023-24 NCAA Football season (September 2nd, 2023).
Florida at Utah (-5.5) – My pick is Utah Utes
The Florida Gators desperately needed a new quarterback this offseason. They lost Anthony Richardson to the NFL and the team kicked Jalen Kitna off the team due to some serious legal issues. Head coach Billy Napier hit the transfer portal and found former Wisconsin QB Graham Mertz. The Gators will lean on the excellent talent in their backfield, so Mertz won’t need to pass 25+ times per games. The Gators will need their offense to carry the team as their defense went through many changes and is expected to rank near the bottom of the SEC.
The Utah Utes starting quarterback Cameron Rising tore his ACL in the Rose Bowl and it’s still unknown if he is starting Week 1. I’m sure they probably know internally, but gamesmanship is at play here. It Rising isn’t 100% to start the season, their running game should help backup QB Bryson Barnes if he’s needed. The Utes bring back a solid defense, but it may not be able to keep up with last year’s squad.
I haven’t been a fan of Graham Mertz since he sustained one of the worst stretches of games in recent Big Ten history. That might be hyperbole, but he had a rough stretch of games a couple years ago. I just don’t feel comfortable putting a penny on Mertz until I see if he’s improved. If you’re thinking about putting money on Florida, I’d maybe skip a week. I’m taking the Utes to cover at home.
Miami (OH) at Miami (FL) (-17) – My pick is Miami (FL) Hurricanes
The Miami (OH) Redhawks should be near the top of a crowded MAC East race. It’s often difficult to pinpoint the better MAC teams until they face each other. They get QB Brett Gabbert back from injury and they return many from one of the better defenses in the MAC. The Redhawks should be an improved team over last season.
The Miami (FL) Hurricanes are coming off a baffling season. QB Tyler Van Dyke was a Heisman candidate to start the year and the season couldn’t have gone worse for him. He has a new offensive coordinator and a better offensive line to help keep him upright. Van Dyke will need to get off to a hot start as his defense won’t be consistent this year.
I think the Hurricanes will have a bounce-back season. Van Dyke has all physical abilities to be an NFL-caliber quarterback, so I think we will see some improvements from him this year. He comes into this game a bit banged-up, but should start. This game could be close to the spread, but I think the Hurricanes will cover at home.
Louisville vs Georgia Tech (+7.5) – My pick is Louisville Cardinals
The Louisville Cardinals are hopeful the offense will return to the days of Bobby Petrino’s high-powered passing attack. They hired Petrino’s former quarterback Jeff Brohm as the new head coach. He had a lot of success at Purdue and he brought in one of his former players, Jack Plummer, to start for Louisville. Brohm inherits a solid defense and a favorable conference schedule. They could make some noise this season.
The Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets ended the year strong and Brent Key, who took over for Geoff Collins midseason, got the full-time job. He was able to lure QB Haynes King from Texas A&M and WR Dominick Blaylock from Georgia. King will be the first pro-style quarterback in Atlanta since the change from the triple-option. They raided the transfer portal for defensive help as well, so we will see a lot of new faces on the Yellow Jackets on both sides of the ball.
I’m a big fan of Louisville this year. I think they will be undervalued for the first couple weeks. I think that trend will swing the other way if they go undefeated through September. I’m taking Louisville to cover this week.
Northwestern at Rutgers (-6.5) – My pick is Rutgers Scarlet Knights
Northwestern had a tumultuous offseason. They saw their longtime head coach Pat Fitzgerald lose his job due to hazing allegations that go back many years. They have a temporary replacement and transfer QB Ben Bryant (from Cincinnati) is stuck in a bad situation. The Wildcats will be sitting in the basement of the Big Ten this year.
Rutgers head coach Greg Schiano has improved the program since returning in 2020. He took over a dumpster fire at that time. The program is still on fire, but it’s now only big enough to roast marshmallows. They have been able to hang with the lower-end Big Ten teams, but are still a work-in-progress on offense. They hope that QB Gavin Wimsatt will take a big jump this year. He looked lost at times last year. If that big improvement isn’t visible after a couple games, a change could be needed. Backup QB Evan Simon could be the next man up.
First off, I’m sorry if you have to sit through this game. I don’t expect it to be a fun watch. I’m going to put my trust in Schiano’s defense. I think they will be able to make a few stops and widen the lead late in the game. I’m taking Rutgers to cover at home.
Ball State at Kentucky (-26.5) – My pick is Kentucky Wildcats
The Ball State Cardinals could be in for a long season. They had to find talent on the transfer portal for large roles in their offense. QB Layne Hatcher has spent time at Arkansas State and Texas State. He was pretty good at those stops and is an improvement over what they had last season. The Cardinals will win a few games this year, but I don’t foresee a bowl game in their future.
The Kentucky Wildcats lost QB Will Levis to the NFL, but landed one of the better quarterback tranfers in former NC State QB Devin Leary. He has plenty of talented receivers and he takes over a pretty good turn-key offense. Kentucky’s defense has been fantastic in recent years and they should be amongst the better units in the country again. I expect the Wildcats will eclipse their seven win total of 2022.
Ball State is the perfect team to bring in if you want to get a new quarterback settled into an offense. The Cardinals defensive backs are subpar and Leary should have a big game. The Wildcats may not need to score more than 27 points to cover in this game, so I’m taking Kentucky to cover.
Ohio State at Indiana (+30) – My pick is Ohio State Buckeyes
The Ohio State Buckeyes are in a constant state of restocking talent after every NFL Draft. They lost QB C.J. Stroud to the pros and will be going with a dual-quarterback system with Kyle McCard and Devin Brown sharing duties. Even though they’ve lost a metric buttload of wide receiving talent o the NFL, they still have arguably the best in college, Marvin Harrison Jr. still in scarlet and grey on weekends.
The Indiana Hoosiers are coming off a forgettable season. They didn’t have a replacement for QB Michael Penix Jr., who transferred to Washington, and their offense was amongst the worst in a Power 5 conference. They hit the transfer portal hard this offseason and grabbed QB Tayven Jackson from Tennessee and RB Christian Turner from Wake Forest. They could be in for another long year, but they are putting together a nice base to compete in a season or two.
Ohio State has a double-digit outright winning streak over Indiana. They’ve also covered their last three games in Bloomington. The Hoosiers should be better this year, but they still have too many holes on defense to keep this game close. I’m taking the Buckeyes to cover on the road.
Washington State at Colorado State (+12) – My pick is Colorado State Rams
The Washington State Cougars aren’t technically in a rebuilding year, but their offense is going to have a ton of few faces across the field. QB Cameron Ward is back under center, but all his best receivers are gone and LT Jarrett Kingston left to USC. It wouldn’t surprise me if Ward takes a step back in his development this year. WSU’s defense is among the top-half of the Pac-12, but defense was almost non-existent in the conference, so that may not be much of an accolade.
The Colorado State Rams was one of the last season. They barely averaged double-digit points per game and was just sloppy. The only reason why they weren’t the absolute worst team overall was thanks to their defense. They have some intriguing talent returning as WR Tory Horton could be the best receivers in the Mountain West this season. They may not win many games this year, but they have enough talent to keep some games within the spread.
Both of these teams aren’t the sexiest to put money on this year, but I think Colorado State can keep this game close enough to win against the spread. Washington State should get better as the season goes on, but they have too many new inexperienced players on offense to start the year. I’m taking the points in this game.
North Carolina vs South Carolina (+2.5) – My pick is South Carolina Gamecocks
The North Carolina Tar Heels got off to a hot start last season, but late-season injuries were too much to overcome. QB Drake Maye returns this year and many think he could be a potential first-round pick in next year’s draft. He will have a few new faces to replace former WR Josh Downs. Their defense should be improved after changing the coaching staff on that side of the ball.
The South Carolina Gamecocks were able to finally see QB Spencer Rattler improve to where many thought he would be early in his collegiate career. The start of the year wasn’t pretty, but his six touchdown performance against then-#5 ranked Tennessee was impressive. He continued his hot streak with a win over then-#8 Clemson the following week. I expect South Caroling will open up the playbook and put the offense on his shoulders this season.
North Carolina will be very good this year, but I think South Carolina is underrated. Head coach Shane Beamer have outperformed preseason rankings since getting the job at South Carolina. I’m expecting a big game from Rattler and I’m taking the points.
LSU vs Florida State (+2.5) – My pick is LSU Tigers
LSU head coach Brian Kelly have closed the gap between Alabama and his team. QB Jayden Daniels should see a big jump in his second year under Kelly. He wasn’t on my radar at this point last year and he could end up in the Heisman race if he has a big September. Also, LSU’s defense lost some talent to the draft, but they are deep with talent. Their secondary will have a lot of new faces, but I still think they hang with good teams.
Florida State have returned to the preseason top-ten this year. They will be chasing Clemson all year and QB Jordan Travis is surrounded him his best squad so far in his career. The Seminoles tripped up at the start of their conference schedule last year, but finished strong. If they can take care of business against their best non-conference opponents, they could challenge for a spot in the College Football Playoff.
Florida State won a nail-biter against LSU to open the 2022 college season. LSU missed an extra-point with no time left on the clock. This year’s game will be taking place at Camping World Stadium in Orlando. I expect another close one and Florida State’s run defense will be tested. Can they keep Daniels inside the pocket? It will be a tough task and I think Daniels will be able to scramble and hurt the Seminoles in a variety of ways. I’m taking the Tigers to cover.
South Alabama at Tulane (-6.5) – My pick is Tulane Green Wave
This is the section where we pick a smaller conference game.
The South Alabama Jaguars didn’t lost much talent to the draft or graduation. They should be in the running for the Sun Belt championship this season. They had some close losses early last year, and if they take care of business in September, they could find themselves amongst the ranked in the nation. QB Carter Bradley is one of the best signal callers in the conference, and he will be able to lean on his stout defense this year.
The Tulane Green Wave finished last season in the top-ten. The AAC is top-heavy this year and if they can get some big non-conference wins in September, they could set the table to repeat last year’s finish. They will lean on a group of running backs to replace former RB Tyjae Spears production. They may need to put an even bigger load on the shoulders of QB Michael Pratt.
Both of these teams were excellent gambling teams last year. This could be a tight game, but Tulane is a little too stacked this year. They should be able to handle teams in the AAC and below. I’m taking the Green Wave to cover at home.
QUICK HITS
Clemson at Duke (+13.5) – My pick is Duke
Toledo at Illinois (-9) – My pick is Toledo
Middle Tennessee at Alabama (-39) – My pick is Alabama
West Virginia at Penn State (-20.5) – My pick is Penn State
Boise State at Washington (-14) – My pick is Washington
Buffalo at Wisconsin (-27.5) – My pick is Wisconsin
Utah State at Iowa (-25) – My pick is Iowa
East Carolina at Michigan (-36) – My pick is Michigan
Louisiana Tech at SMU (-19) – My pick is SMU
NC State at UConn (+14.5) – My pick is NC State
BONUS PICKS!
Texas-San Antonio at Houston (pk) – My pick is UTSA
New Mexico at Texas A&M (-38) – My pick is Texas A&M
UMass at Auburn (-35) – My pick is Auburn
Bowling Green at Liberty (-9.5) – My pick is Liberty
South Florida at Western Kentucky (-11.5) – My pick is Western Kentucky
Sweetbob’s college football picks against the spread record in previous seasons:
2013: 134-79-8
2014: 148-118-4
2015: 149-118-3
2016: 196-145-6
2017: 183-159-13
2018: 177-157-6
2019: 187-141-8
2020: 170-160-5
2021: 167-151-8
2022: 185-150-5
2023: 0-0-0
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About the Author…
Bobby Roberts (otherwise known as Sweetbob) is the creator of ‘America’s White Boy’ and contributor at Project Shanks. His writing has been featured on ESPN’s ‘SportsNation’, Sports Illustrated’s Hot Clicks, Guyspeed, and various other sites. You can follow him on X at @Sweetbob