I went 9-7 against the spread in the final regular season games.
We have a slate of six games this weekend and most are rematches from earlier meetings this season. I would preach caution when gleaning too much information from previous meetings, especially those that took place back in October or November.
We have a few near-double digit games this weekend, which has been common in recent years.
Can the Bills cover a double-digit point spread over the Dolphins?
We pick every NFL Wild Card Weekend game against the spread.
Since there are only six games this weekend, as a bonus I will also pick the over/under for each game.
Seattle Seahawks at San Francisco 49ers (-9.5) – over/under (42) – My pick is San Francisco 49ers and UNDER
The Seattle Seahawks were 9-8 outright and 7-10 against the spread during the regular season. They are coming off a 19-16 overtime win over the Rams. They ended the season with back-to-back outright wins. They were in the midst of a downturn before ending the season strong. Their ability to win is solely based on their ability to run the ball. They need to crack at least 150+ yards to be competitive against good teams.
The San Francisco 49ers were 13-4 outright and 11-6 against the spread during the regular season. They are coming off a 38-13 home win over the Cardinals. They didn’t rest their starters and were able to smoke the injured-riddled Cardinals. The Niners have turned into the best team in the league and they could make a long run in the postseason.
The Niners were a beast at home down the stretch. They’ve been a great betting team and I don’t think they are favored by an unreachable amount. They can limit Seattle on the ground and I think the Niners will keep the Seahawks scoring in the single-digits. I’m taking the Niners to cover and I’m taking the UNDER.
Los Angeles Chargers at Jacksonville Jaguars (+2.5) – over/under (47.5) – My pick is Jacksonville Jaguars and UNDER
The Chargers were 10-7 outright and 11-5-1 against the spread during the regular season. They are coming off a 31-28 road loss over the Broncos. QB Justin Herbert needs a little help from his backfield if they hope to making it out of the Wild Card round. That aspect has been a struggle this year and have only cracked 100+ yards just a few times all season.
The Jaguars were 9-8 outright and 8-8-1 against the spread during the regular season. They are coming off a 20-16 home win over the Titans to secure the AFC South crown. It wasn’t a great showing overall, but they came in clutch in the fourth quarter. LB Josh Allen scooped up a fumble and ran it back for a touchdown in the final minutes.
The Jaguars finished the season outright winning six of their final seven games. They come into these playoffs as underdogs. This is Jacksonville’s first playoff appearance in a few years and it might be difficult to put a dime on the AFC South champions. I think they will show up at home, so I’m taking the points and the UNDER.
Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills (-13.5) – over/under (43.5) – My pick is Miami Dolphins and OVER
The Dolphins were 9-8 outright and had the same record against the spread during the regular season. They are coming off a 11-6 home win over the Jets. It was an ugly game, but it snapped the Dolphins five-game losing streak. They are a different team without injured QB Tua Tagovailoa. The good news is that they haven’t been getting blown-out, which could be key in this game.
The Bills were 13-3 outright and 8-7-1 against the spread during the regular season. They are coming off a 35-23 home win over the Patriots. It was an emotional win in their first game since Damar Hamlin’s injury. They needed two kickoff return touchdowns from Nyheim Hines to get the outright win.
This season, the Bills are 1-4 against the spread when facing a double-digit point spread. They are a very good team, but I feel that they are in overrated territory right now. I think this game will be within double-digits, so I’m taking the points and the OVER.
New York Giants at Minnesota Vikings (-3) – over/under (48.5) – My pick is Minnesota Vikings and OVER
The Giants were 9-7-1 outright and 13-4 against the spread during the regular season. They are coming off a 22-16 road loss to the Eagles. They rested their starters and were still kept the game close thanks to a strong fourth quarter. They have overachieved this season and could be a sneaky team this postseason.
The Vikings were 13-4 outright and 7-9-1 against the spread during the regular season. They are coming off a 29-13 road win over the Bears. They needed to play their starters for awhile to get the stink off their 41-17 road loss to the Packers in their previous game. They were too erratic down the stretch, so I understand why some bettors may want to stay away from Minnesota this week.
The Vikings may have been unpredictable during the final weeks of the season, but they were a solid home team in the final weeks. I have a feeling they will play better this week and Vikings QB Kirk Cousins should have a big game. I’m taking the Vikings to cover and the OVER.
Baltimore Ravens at Cincinnati Bengals (-9.5) – over/under (40.5) – My pick is Cincinnati Bengals and UNDER
The Ravens were 10-7 outright and 6-9-2 against the spread during the regular season. They are coming off a 27-16 road loss to the Bengals. Their offense has struggled without QB Lamar Jackson, but their defense helped keep them within striking distance of the playoffs. They will be without Jackson again this week, so they will need a strong showing from their defense.
The Bengals were 12-4 outright and 12-3-1 against the spread during the regular season. They are coming off a 27-16 home win over the Ravens. They finished the season on a eight-game outright winning streak. There’s not much you can glean from the win since the Bengals offense was vanilla in the win.
It’s hard to win back-to-back games against the same team in back-to-back weeks. They split the regular season meetings, but Baltimore’s win came with Lamar Jackson under center early in the season. I have to go with the Bengals to cover and the defenses will limit points, so I’m taking the UNDER as well.
Dallas Cowboys at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+2.5) – over/under (45.5) – My pick is Dallas Cowboys and OVER
The Cowboys were 12-5 outright and 9-7-1 against the spread during the regular season. They are coming off a 26-6 road loss to the Commanders. It was a piss-poor performance from Dallas and I would have liked to have seen QB Dak Prescott complete more than 40% of his passes. They were just going through the motions and it was obvious.
The Bucs were 8-9 outright and 4-12-1 against the spread during the regular season. They are coming off a 30-17 road loss to the Falcons. They played their starters for a portion of the game, but they were already locked into a spot by winning the NFC South.
It’s hard to bet against Tom Brady in the postseason, but I’m doing it. The Cowboys defense takes some risks and Brady will make them look dumb a few times on Monday night, but their risks will pay off a few times. The Bucs need a balanced offense to keep the Cowboys defense on their heels, but their running game has been rough all year. I’m taking the Cowboys to cover and the OVER.
*These picks are for entertainment purposes
Sweetbob’s NFL picks against the spread record in previous seasons:
2013: 133-95-10
2014: 131-114-9
2015: 150-108-9
2016: 143-120-13
2017: 144-115-16
2018: 141-118-13
2019: 159-119-7
2020: 152-121-8
2021: 155-129-6
2022: 137-126-8
Follow us on Twitter @Sweetbob & ‘LIKE’ us on Facebook!
About the Author…
Bobby Roberts (otherwise known as Sweetbob) is the creator of ‘America’s White Boy’ and contributor at Project Shanks. His writing has been featured on ESPN’s ‘SportsNation’, Sports Illustrated’s Hot Clicks, Guyspeed, and various other sites. You can follow him on Twitter at @Sweetbob